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244 bytes added ,  23 January
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/zerohedge
|usernameurl=https://x.com/zerohedge
|username=zerohedge
|username=zerohedge
|content=Fed's Huge Problem: Main Street Does Not Believe The Fed's & Wall Street's Inflation Forecasts https://zerohedge.com/markets/feds-huge-problem-main-street-does-not-believe-feds-wall-streets-inflation-forecasts
|content=Fed's Huge Problem: Main Street Does Not Believe The Fed's & Wall Street's [[Inflation]] Forecasts https://zerohedge.com/markets/feds-huge-problem-main-street-does-not-believe-feds-wall-streets-inflation-forecasts
|timestamp=2:10 AM · Jan 24, 2022
|timestamp=2:10 AM · Jan 24, 2022
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=You are experiencing 7.5% inflation.
|content=You are experiencing 7.5% [[Inflation|inflation]].


You are getting sleepy. So very sleepy.
You are getting sleepy. So very sleepy.
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Ok.
Ok.


So @BLS_gov quotes you 7.5% inflation and NONE of you know what it represents, and NO economist on #EconTwitter will explain the .5% precision?
So @BLS_gov quotes you [[Inflation|7.5% inflation]] and NONE of you know what it represents, and NO economist on #EconTwitter will explain the .5% precision?


Demand [[CPI]] be a field.
Demand [[CPI]] be a field.
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“US STEM employers are facing a deep labor shortage.”
“US STEM employers are facing a deep labor shortage.”


“Inflation is transient.”
“[[Inflation]] is transient.”


“CPI is a measure of the COL.”
“[[CPI]] is a measure of the COL.”


“Iraq has WMD.”
“Iraq has WMD.”
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|content=genuinely curious:
|content=genuinely curious:


the fed has smart people. how were they so wrong about inflation being transient, when it seemed so obvious to most people that it wasn't going to be?
the fed has smart people. how were they so wrong about [[Inflation|inflation]] being transient, when it seemed so obvious to most people that it wasn't going to be?
|timestamp=8:23 PM · Feb 17, 2022
|timestamp=8:23 PM · Feb 17, 2022
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=This happened. It hasn’t always been like this. This is still possible. We could do this with Epstein, Wuhan/COVID, Bagram, '''CPI/Inflation''', Stock Trading in Congress, Tech Censorship of political speech at government request:
|content=This happened. It hasn’t always been like this. This is still possible. We could do this with Epstein, Wuhan/COVID, Bagram, [[CPI]]/[[Inflation]], Stock Trading in Congress, Tech Censorship of political speech at government request:


cc:@tedcruz , @BernieSanders
cc:@tedcruz , @BernieSanders
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|content=Economists: Ken Arrow taught us we can’t aggregate rational preferences into the preferences of a mythical super-individual to represent society.
|content=Economists: Ken Arrow taught us we can’t aggregate rational preferences into the preferences of a mythical super-individual to represent society.


Also Economists: Konus taught us that Inflation is measured relative to agents’ PERSONAL preferences.
Also Economists: Konus taught us that [[Inflation]] is measured relative to agents’ PERSONAL preferences.


BLS Economists: US [[CPI]] is 7.9%
BLS Economists: US [[CPI]] is 7.9%
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=[Yes there are sub reports on inflation. But the use of, and focus upon, a single number with opaque methodology and misleading description is preposterous. Bad theory. Bad economics. Bad government.]
|content=[Yes there are sub reports on [[Inflation|inflation]]. But the use of, and focus upon, a single number with opaque methodology and misleading description is preposterous. Bad theory. Bad economics. Bad government.]
|timestamp=1:26 PM · May 11, 2022
|timestamp=1:26 PM · May 11, 2022
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=<nowiki>#</nowiki>inflation '''#CPI''' #CostOfLiving
|content=<nowiki>#</nowiki>[[Inflation|inflation]] [[CPI|#CPI]] #CostOfLiving
|thread=
|thread=
{{Tweet
{{Tweet
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Take 3 stylized goods:
Take 3 stylized goods:


F = Food in kgs
F = Food in kgs</br>
G = Gasoline in ltrs
G = Gasoline in ltrs</br>
H = Housing as Rent in sq meters
H = Housing as Rent in sq meters


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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=That function is akin to the temperature or pressure I keep talking about in the standard inflation theory. From there, we move to what is wrong with the standard theory. But this would already show you what is wrong with BLS’ crazy claims to be computing the cost of living. 🙏
|content=That function is akin to the temperature or pressure I keep talking about in the [[Inflation|standard inflation theory]]. From there, we move to what is wrong with the standard theory. But this would already show you what is wrong with BLS’ crazy claims to be computing the cost of living. 🙏
|timestamp=4:39 PM · May 17, 2022
|timestamp=4:39 PM · May 17, 2022
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=That is not gauge theoretic yet because we are assuming fixed tastes. But we have to understand the **mountain** of layered nonsensical assumptions in [[CPI]] measurements of COL inflation. [[CPI]] as COL isn’t even consistent with pre-gauge theoretic theory. It’s sort of unbelievable.
|content=That is not gauge theoretic yet because we are assuming fixed tastes. But we have to understand the **mountain** of layered nonsensical assumptions in [[CPI]] measurements of [[Inflation|COL inflation]]. [[CPI]] as COL isn’t even consistent with pre-gauge theoretic theory. It’s sort of unbelievable.
|timestamp=4:42 PM · May 17, 2022
|timestamp=4:42 PM · May 17, 2022
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade it’s an element of GL(2,R) although the economists haven’t gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. It’s a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
|content=Great question. [[Inflation]] is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade it’s an element of GL(2,R) although the economists haven’t gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. It’s a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade it’s an element of GL(2,R) although the economists haven’t gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. It’s a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
|content=Great question. [[Inflation]] is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade it’s an element of GL(2,R) although the economists haven’t gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. It’s a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
|quote=
|quote=
{{Tweet
{{Tweet
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/invisi_college1
|usernameurl=https://x.com/invisi_college1
|username=invisi_college1
|username=invisi_college1
|content=I have heard you say inflation looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning
|content=I have heard you say [[Inflation|inflation]] looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning
|timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022
|timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Q2: Why is inflation a field on LOOP spaces of preferences?
|content=Q2: Why is [[Inflation|inflation]] a field on LOOP spaces of preferences?


A2: Tastes are seasonal. In USA “We never spill Egg Nog on our bikinis.” What you both want &amp; price HAS to be made seasonal to avoid the Cycling Problem (Holonomy) in index number thy. So we have LOOPS of tastes/prices.
A2: Tastes are seasonal. In USA “We never spill Egg Nog on our bikinis.” What you both want &amp; price HAS to be made seasonal to avoid the Cycling Problem (Holonomy) in index number thy. So we have LOOPS of tastes/prices.
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=A2 Continued: If you don’t make loops of tastes and prices, you will show meaningless regular inflation if prices, quantities and tastes Circle back to their initial Jan 1 values. This confuses economic experts (Like Diewert) when it comes to chain/path indices
which is up next.
|content=A2 Continued: If you don’t make loops of tastes and prices, you will show meaningless regular [[Inflation|inflation]] if prices, quantities and tastes Circle back to their initial Jan 1 values. This confuses economic experts (Like Diewert) when it comes to chain/path indices
which is up next.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Q3: Why is inflation a field on Path Spaces of Looped Preferences/Prices?
|content=Q3: Why is [[Inflation|inflation]] a field on Path Spaces of Looped Preferences/Prices?


A3: Loosely, Index number theory really died w/ work of Ragnar Frisch (rightly) destroying Irving Fischer’s misguided work on axiomatic tests for bilateral (2 period) mechanical index numbers. Here’s why.
A3: Loosely, Index number theory really died w/ work of Ragnar Frisch (rightly) destroying Irving Fischer’s misguided work on axiomatic tests for bilateral (2 period) mechanical index numbers. Here’s why.
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Q4: Why do you say indexes are Group-Valued? Isn’t inflation just a number?
|content=Q4: Why do you say indexes are Group-Valued? Isn’t [[Inflation|inflation]] just a number?


A4: Here goes. In the most famous case you *can* get away with a number. But that 8.9% style [[CPI]] nonsense is actually secretly a 1x1 matrix in GL(1,R). And that actually matters! Why? B/c Non-linearity.
A4: Here goes. In the most famous case you *can* get away with a number. But that 8.9% style [[CPI]] nonsense is actually secretly a 1x1 matrix in GL(1,R). And that actually matters! Why? B/c Non-linearity.
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=A4 Cont.: Only 1x1 matrices commute. NxN matrices do not! And if A.B isn’t B.A, the system goes non-linear. So if you have 2 countries with 2 currencies, the commutative case doesn’t work at all. You need to use Freeman Dyson’s system of Time Ordered Products to save inflation.
|content=A4 Cont.: Only 1x1 matrices commute. NxN matrices do not! And if A.B isn’t B.A, the system goes non-linear. So if you have 2 countries with 2 currencies, the commutative case doesn’t work at all. You need to use Freeman Dyson’s system of Time Ordered Products to save [[Inflation|inflation]].
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Q5: So let’s see. Inflation is a field like temperature. But a field in a fiber bundle over ♟-dimensional path spaces of loops of preferences/prices valued in non-commuting groups leading to non linearities not addressed by economists? What about actual geography!”
|content=Q5: So let’s see. [[Inflation]] is a field like temperature. But a field in a fiber bundle over ♟-dimensional path spaces of loops of preferences/prices valued in non-commuting groups leading to non linearities not addressed by economists? What about actual geography!”


A5: Fair. 👍
A5: Fair. 👍
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=They have two black boxes. One is called '''CPI construction'''. One is called the Fed. The theory is a narrative. The narrative doesn’t match the actions.
|content=They have two black boxes. One is called [[CPI|CPI construction]]. One is called the Fed. The theory is a narrative. The narrative doesn’t match the actions.
|thread=
|thread=
{{Tweet
{{Tweet
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade it’s an element of GL(2,R) although the economists haven’t gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. It’s a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
|content=Great question. [[Inflation]] is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade it’s an element of GL(2,R) although the economists haven’t gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. It’s a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
|quote=
|quote=
{{Tweet
{{Tweet
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/invisi_college1
|usernameurl=https://x.com/invisi_college1
|username=invisi_college1
|username=invisi_college1
|content=I have heard you say inflation looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning
|content=I have heard you say [[Inflation|inflation]] looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning
|timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022
|timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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