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19: Bret Weinstein - The Prediction and the DISC: Difference between revisions

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'''Bret:''' Then I can start predicting other results. Nobody will know how I am doing that thing. I will look like a super genius. And so, holding it “in house” is a mechanism for a whole slew of papers.
'''Bret:''' Then I can start predicting other results. Nobody will know how I am doing that thing. I will look like a super genius. And so, holding it “in house” is a mechanism for a whole slew of papers.


'''Eric:''' to be, to be 100. You can afford to bend over backwards and not make inferences. Let's say the following, holding it in house is any seemingly inexplicable decision in science, but for the fact that it fits at least one story of this kind, which is that it is consistent with wishing to publish a stream, rather than the source of the information that would allow you—so you can either do one discovery or you can do a stream of predictions and that makes a certain amount of sense, given the ruthlessly competitive grant-winning environment. And we don't know exactly what happened, but there is no world that I know of in which you're allowed to hold back that kind of information, because, in part, of what's on the line.  
'''Eric:''' to be, to be 100. You can afford to bend over backwards and not make inferences. Let's say the following, holding it in house is a seemingly inexplicable decision in science, but for the fact that it fits at least one story of this kind, which is that it is consistent with wishing to publish a stream, rather than the source of the information that would allow you—so you can either do one discovery or you can do a stream of predictions and that makes a certain amount of sense, given the ruthlessly competitive grant-winning environment. And we don't know exactly what happened, but there is no world that I know of in which you're allowed to hold back that kind of information, because, in part, of what's on the line.  


'''Bret:''' Right. So—
'''Bret:''' Right. So—
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'''Eric:''' Because these mice are used for medical testing.  
'''Eric:''' Because these mice are used for medical testing.  


'''Bret:''' Not even that. It's medical testing, but it's also all of the science relative, at least, to cancer, senescence, wound healing—all of the science that is stacked on these mice that is contingent on their function relative to their tiers is all compromised. You're letting year after year of this stuff accumulate. It's malpractice at an incredible level. So, I don't know that she has turned on me, but I call her up, and I say, “Carol, we are stunned to find that our paper was turned away without review from Nature—”
'''Bret:''' Not even that. It's medical testing, but it's also all of the science relative, at least, to cancer, senescence, wound healing— all of the science that is stacked on these mice that is contingent on their function relative to their tiers is all compromised. You're letting year after year of this stuff accumulate. It's malpractice at an incredible level. So, I don't know that she has turned on me, but I call her up, and I say, “Carol, we are stunned to find that our paper was turned away without review from Nature—”


'''Eric:''' Without review.
'''Eric:''' Without review.


'''Bret:''' Without review. We need your help. Can I send you the paper and have you look at it? And she says yes. And I sent her the paper and she sends back the paper with an unbelievable number of intense criticisms that are not sensible. She pans the paper, does not believe it—  
'''Bret:''' Without review. We need your help. Can I send you the paper and have you look at it? And she says yes. And I sent her the paper and she sends back the paper with an unbelievable number of intense criticisms that are not sensible. She pans the paper, does not believe a word of it—  


'''Eric:''' Do you still have that copy?
'''Eric:''' Do you still have that copy?
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'''Eric:''' No but you haven’t told this in enough—
'''Eric:''' No but you haven’t told this in enough—


'''Bret:''' I haven't told it in a very long time. After the rejection from nature, after Carol has seen the paper, and said it's cruddy, I get a letter I don't expect from a journal I don't—I know it exists, but I'm not super familiar with it, Experimental Gerontology. Experimental Gerontology says, “We are the editors of experimental gerontology. We have heard a rumor of your work. We're very interested. Would you be willing to submit a version to our journal?” and, oh, this is happening prior to Carol looking at my paper and panning it.  
'''Bret:''' I haven't told it in a very long time. After the rejection from nature, after Carol has seen the paper, and said it's cruddy, I get a letter I don't expect from a journal I don't—I know it exists, but I'm not super familiar with it, Experimental Gerontology. Experimental Gerontology says, “We are the editors of Experimental Gerentology. We have heard a rumor of your work. We're very interested. Would you be willing to submit a version to our journal?” and, oh, this is happening prior to Carol looking at my paper and panning it.  


'''Eric:''' So the only way they would have known about this would have been from Nature or from Dick, or—
'''Eric:''' So the only way they would have known about this would have been from Nature or from Dick, or—


'''Bret:''' I'm pretty sure I know, based on what they, again, I was too young to sort out really what they were saying, but they indicate that they're fans of antagonistic pleiotropy, so what happened was George Williams, having heard that it got rejected, contacted some friends of his and was like, you should really take a look at this. So I begin the process of revising it. I've shown it to Carol, she's panned it. I send the revised version to experimental gerontology. They send it out for review. As you know, review is blind. You don't know who your reviewers are, but you can often tell who they are. It's not as obscure—  
'''Bret:''' I'm pretty sure I know, based on what they- again, I was too young to sort out really what they were saying, but they indicate that they're fans of antagonistic pleiotropy, so what happened was George Williams, having heard that it got rejected, contacted some friends of his and was like, you should really take a look at this. So I begin the process of revising it. I've shown it to Carol, she's panned it. I send the revised version to Experimental Gerentology. They send it out for review. As you know, review is blind. You don't know who your reviewers are, but you can often tell who they are. It's not as obscure—  


'''Eric:''' If it’s a small field.
'''Eric:''' If it’s a small field.
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'''Eric:''' Right.  
'''Eric:''' Right.  


'''Bret:''' But I don't want to not acknowledge her, so I acknowledge her separately. Experimental Gerontology then—I am 99% sure—sends the paper to her as the reviewer. She pans it. Absolutely brutal critiques, just pages and pages and pages of them. They are not high quality critiques. I could go through every single one.  
'''Bret:''' But I don't want to not acknowledge her, so I acknowledge her separately. Experimental Gerontology then— I am 99% sure— sends the paper to her as the reviewer. She pans it. Absolutely brutal critiques, just pages and pages and pages of them. They are not high quality critiques. I could go through every single one.  


'''Eric:''' Don’t bother, this is a podcast, just—  
'''Eric:''' Don’t bother, this is a podcast, just—  
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'''Bret:''' But I didn't know what to do because she was in line for a Nobel Prize, that was well understood. I didn't want to accuse a leading light of the field of,  
'''Bret:''' But I didn't know what to do because she was in line for a Nobel Prize, that was well understood. I didn't want to accuse a leading light of the field of,  


'''Eric:''' Okay, this is exactly why I got angry with the beginning of the podcast, you moron. No, no offense. You were in line for a Nobel Prize. You didn't. I mean, I'm sorry. There is an aspect of this about giving away your power, before you’ve even accumulated—you don't even have a PhD at this time.
'''Eric:''' Okay, this is exactly why I got angry with the beginning of the podcast, you moron. No, no offense. You were in line for a Nobel Prize. You didn't- I mean- I'm sorry. There is an aspect of this about giving away your power, before you’ve even accumulated—you don't even have a PhD at this time.


'''Bret:''' I'm just saying, at the time, if you mentioned her name, people would say, “Oh yeah, her Nobel Prize is one of these years.” Right? So my point was, I was in the awkward position—I didn't understand what I was supposed to do. I didn't want to send back a review that said, “I don't know who the person is who reviewed this, but they don't understand the material, and all of their critiques suck”, because I didn't want to accuse somebody who was that powerful of not getting it.
'''Bret:''' I'm just saying, at the time, if you mentioned her name, people would say, “Oh yeah, her Nobel Prize is one of these years.” Right? So my point was, I was in the awkward position— I didn't understand what I was supposed to do. I didn't want to send back a review that said, “I don't know who the person is who reviewed this, but they don't understand the material, and all of their critiques suck”, because I didn't want to accuse somebody who was that powerful of not getting it.


'''Eric:''' I mean, here's the problem. What do you do? You don't actually have evidence in the hard form where like you have got videotape, but on the other hand, these are small worlds. This, all of this is preposterous.
'''Eric:''' I mean, here's the problem. What do you do? You don't actually have evidence in the hard form where like you have got videotape, but on the other hand, these are small worlds. This, all of this is preposterous.
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'''Bret:''' I don't know how to handle it.  
'''Bret:''' I don't know how to handle it.  


'''Eric:''' I'm sorry, but, like, I had no advisor. Your advisor was not equipped for the modern era.  
'''Eric:''' I'm sorry, but, like, I had no advisor? Your advisor was not equipped for the modern era.  


'''Bret:''' He wasn't equipped for the modern era. He wasn't equipped for molecular biology.  
'''Bret:''' He wasn't equipped for the modern era. He wasn't equipped for molecular biology.  
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'''Eric:''' That's true.  
'''Eric:''' That's true.  


'''Bret:''' I finally settle on a strategy that I can live with and I send back a note. I send back the review and my note says, “I don't know why, but this entire list of critiques is not high quality. If you would like to point me to any of the critiques in this list that you would like me to address, I am more than happy to do it, but I don't think it makes sense to address the entire list”, and as I recall it, I hit send on the email, and within minutes, maybe it was an hour, I got back a response: “Your paper has been accepted for publication”, which blew me away because I—
'''Bret:''' I finally settle on a strategy that I can live with and I send back a note. I send back the review and my note says, “I don't know why, but this entire list of critiques is not high quality. If you would like to point me to any of the critiques in this list that you would like me to address, I am more than happy to do it, but I don't think it makes sense to address the entire list,” and as I recall it, I hit send on the email, and within minutes, maybe it was an hour, I got back a response: “Your paper has been accepted for publication,” which blew me away because I—


'''Eric:''' It makes no sense according to regular protocols.  
'''Eric:''' It makes no sense according to regular protocols.  
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