Markets
On X[edit]
2009[edit]
@CameronNeylon I have watched how particular posts cause unfollows. One time I dared suggested the free market *might* be imperfect...& ciao
Oh @toothfairycyber the jig is up. Now I know why the religious right fights stem cell research:you cut them in to corner the market! O-M-G!
So, back in neoclassical theory I have a confusion. How did this whole 'markets are nearly perfect' get itself the status of a science?
The markets discussed by @LeeBillings are less about the so called "wisdom of crowds" than about adjusting for elite-interest distortions.
Markets seems to be most efficient in driving down base prices, while pushing firms to focus on high margin "gotcha" strategies.
Give me a sign @NSF: what are we going to do about the epidemic level of hogwash that threatens our nation in finance/markets?
So I ask my followers: RT to @KimKardashian to put her talents and twitter account in the service of science, markets, and gauge thy. #geom
Define Inflation. Anyone? All this talk about predicting markets and no one can DEFINE INFLATION or even engage the question? #GaugedKonus
Soros' General Thy of Reflexivity:
Markets tell worldviews how to move. (Cognitive) Worldviews tell markets how to curve. (Participating)
On behaviors: We haven't even gotten there. I am just trying to allow market actors to change their tastes. Taste change is econ kryptonite.
Econ is: "The combined assumptions of maximizing behavior, market equilibrium, and stable preferences, used relentlessly and unflinchingly"
So @aldoric, I'm trying to open the mathematical door to biology so we can see "Markets as the Continuation of Selection by Other Means."
But @stevenzenith, our tweets about semiotics, market collapse, and field theory risk crowding out f-rt jokes. This is twitter..
Your friends @stevenzenith will buy more lift tickets in winter '14 than spring '14. That predicts both weather and markets albeit trivialy.
Free markets and capitalism are as inseparable in the mind as Ike and Tina Turner once were...with much the same relationship.
As such, I am very concerned about defending markets and capitalism from the sociopaths who champion them for their *defects*.
The Obama Nobel stems from a problem of incomplete markets.
What no one I know is talking about is that manipulation of S&E labor markets is destroying the 'take-no-prisoners' American Scientist.
'Remember laymen: when trying to understand markets crises DONT CONSULT SCIENCE PHDS. They're the cause. Avoid smart people.' -Big Brother
1Y+ later, Doug Prasher is still driving a Courtesy Shuttle. The market says he's a loser. I say he's a winner. What do you say?
A subway guitarist of modest gifts (on the 6 Line) plays "Piano man" for modest tips. I feel no pity, as here the market shines.
Radical Idea: The market for ideas will actually BENEFIT if we ENCOURAGE less-famous science folks to openly seek their credit.
Let me make a claim: Science is too disruptive to result in an orderly market place of ideas. If you like orderly markets, ya got trouble.
The vulnerability of the proxy economy is that achieves an orderly market place of ideas at the expense of efficiency. Enter "Theory".
Studying scientific labor markets at NBER I used to claim "Science careers are now so crappy, they must produce PhD prostitutes."
Congratulations to author/scientist Dr Brooke Magnanti on bringing the quirks of scientific labor markets to a wider public.
For @dabacon: "NSF/NAS study ways of glutting markets to depress wages for universities and other employers ignoring the scientific impact."
Since basic research is a public good (i.e. inexhausible & inexcludible) markets will fail here: We need to know what you need to take risk.
The value that scientists could bring by debunking market thys alone could save the taxpayer billions upon billions. That's a lot of SSC's.
Think about what it means to be able to create idiotic market arguments that cannot be beaten. It is proof of existence for human malware.
Now the market experts who created this problem do not want help. They want experts to fix the problem. Everyone else wants scientists.
Would you rather have Tim Geithner looking at the strength of market theory alone or having to justify it to Steve Weinberg?
Taxpayers just financed 4th homes & 3rd wives for 2nd rate market theorists because 1st rate scientists failed to debunk their nonsense.
Last point for now: Freedom for academics is precisely freedom from academics. A real marketplace of ideas beats the pants off peer review.
The talk presented evidence to the National Academy of Sciences that NAS & @NSF partnered to manipulate markets over scientist salaries.
2010[edit]
Invisible structures are found in nature in failures of visible systems to close. This suggests seeking market analogs of neutrinos & memes.
Oh, and that supreme court ruling. How about letting corporations and people co-vote weighted by market capitalization?
BTW. Individuals and Firms co-voting weighted by market cap...is just a market redescribed as an election (to first order).
What is being lost is that voting by head count is a HEDGE against market failure. Inefficiency by design, not accident.
'Free markets', 'tolerance', 'pacifism', 'free speech' etc.. are what physicists call 'effective theories' and require warning labels.
If you believe in capitalism, personal fortunes, & markets as I do, being a rat bastard on health isn't conservative. It's the opposite.
FMC: Being a 'free market conservative', this bill is a disaster. Me: So, as a 'frictionless surface physicist', what's your energy policy?
Market geeks only: Brian Arthur, Doyne Farmer, Dick Freeman, et al...[and my] joint letter to the SEC on ABM is now up. http://bit.ly/cDOWp5
Suspension of "mark to market" accounting at the sea floor suggests that these are not our elite, but mere children playing in their chairs.
Nobelist G. Becker emailed, thanked me, but claimed migration markets may date to '87. So..uh..Leviticus 25:44-46 anyone? #so_not_the_point
How about Coasian markets in 'academic freedom'? Cap&Gown -> Cap&Trade? Or fractional ownership: Zip-Tenure! Anything but scientific silence
Labor Market thy, genius edition: "I accepted the offer because Cornell..was reputed to have a good folk dancing group" -Nobelist Ken Wilson
No venerable organization squanders modern marketing opportunity like the World Taekwondo Federation.
(WTF)^2 = WTF WTF?
As it turned out, Ron, the 9 funniest words in the English language were: 'I'm the unregulated market and I'm here to help!'
But so close!
2011[edit]
The only problem with scientific labor market theory is that it doesn't work. Also, it doesn't exist. Okay. The two main problems with ....
2012[edit]
Her: What does it mean markets are generally 'short volatility'?
Me: Oddly enough, that nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
2013[edit]
A new book "The Physics of Wall Street" devotes its last chapter & much of the epilogue to our gauge theory of markets! http://t.co/CKFe16f5
@carney Thanks John! No one I'd rather reach. Keep up the great work making markets make sense. -E
Macropaternalism: n, The belief that a wise sovereign has a moral right to subvert any scientific basis for markets out of noblesse oblige.
2016[edit]
"Anthropic Capitalism & the New Gimmick Economy"
My answer to the 2016 @edge question: https://t.co/URLPtdR9bG https://t.co/73F1d8j3Dc
@robertghrist Thanks for that Robert. We should talk about the role of pure math (and geometry in particular) & markets if you come west.
@stevenstrogatz @robertghrist We'll need new and better math/mathematicians in econ. Thanks for helping get the discussion started on this!
@brad314159 @edge Thanks Brad. It depends whether or not the sketch inspires discussion. I'll probably follow up if there's enough interest.
Simply opening borders is seizure of worker's unsecuritized rights posing as free market! #LaborDay #CapitalForLabor https://t.co/i7sjLj8Ynh
When money managers say "The market suddenly went crazy yesterday" we usually mean the exact opposite.
It's sanity that's truly explosive.
1/ The invisible world is first detected in the visible world's failure to close. [For @naval @johndurant @pmarca et al. A tweet storm try.]
2/ In physics we have conservation laws. We found the light/invisible neutrino because decay in heavy/visible particles violated these rules
3/ Likewise in biology we proved the germ thy of pathogens vs theories like spontaneous generation/miasma by visible effects at macro scale.
4/ I used 'failure to close' to deduce from 1st principles that the NSF must have done a secret study in '85-6 on how to *lower* sci. wages.
5/ This was b/c the incompetent 'shortfall studies' that got NSF in trouble would have lead to different visa laws than those that passed.
6/ I was shocked when a highly competent "smoking gun" study hidden in '86 showed up exactly where my thy predicted: https://t.co/VZvmupRFon
7/ This is the secret history of H1-B. The @NSF secretly studied how to interfere w/ US labor market 2 avoid paying scientists market wages.
8/ Rules: I) Look for a macro system failing to close. II) *Don't* posit a detailed explanation. III) Posit a 'neutrino' place holder & dig.
9/ HW: A) Why don't top OEMs sell laptops w/ lens covers, mic kill switches & hardwired video LEDs offering security to gain mkt advantage?
10/ How do you get 9 figures of wealth doing charity work & public speaking without selling, inventing, founding or investing brilliantly?
11/ C) Why were Bernie's massive rallies often not covered @ NYT & why did a positive Bernie article go neg after massive linking from web?
12/ D) Why do laboratory bred mice used for drug testing have extra long telomeres (allowing radical tissue repair) compared to wild type?
13/ I could go on. I don't know which are nefarious. I'm a different kind of conspiracy guy. I *don't* have answers but know where I'd dig.
14/14. Thank you for your time. Feel free 2 attack. But remember, I've been here before just as w @NSF...before digging up their smoking gun
Xenophile-restrictionist, anti-KaldorHicks, pro-psychedelic, post-market, anti-identity politics, pro individual.
Hi. We're the new left.
All smart people talk to the dead. A belief in the afterlife is not required. Now if you'll forgive me I'm late for coffee w/ George Carlin. https://t.co/mD89OVITZO
@MatthewSmithFL @SamHarrisOrg I was going to mention him but there would be less recognition. I live on his observations about marketing.
Privilege is like toys marketed to kids (eg "x-ray glasses" or "sea monkeys"): you forever want the advertised form that just doesn't exist.
@randon_loeb I wanted actual sea monkeys! But I'm over it. Mostly.
2017[edit]
While often tempted, I'm not a free speech absolutist. I'm an anti-utopian w a commitment to keep our world safe from well meaning utopians.
Most of my friends who are free speech absolutists have never run the simulator forward to see the dystopia total free speech would create.
@mmay3r @micsolana
I guess I'm just a utopian idealist. You favor government planning. He is a fascist using the state to impose madness.
@mmay3r @micsolana That's not a perfect Russell Conjugation because there are anarchists and market utopians. Help me out?
@realDanielWalsh Not even close: clear and present danger, prior injunction, slander, libel, fighting words, obscenity standards, etc....
@mmay3r @micsolana Russell Conjugation is open source. You have commit privileges. Give it a shot!
@TarCiryatan @Silvereaper so true, so true. Planet Clair actually.
@mmay3r @micsolana "It is a poor student who does not surpass his teacher." - L da Vinci
Nice!
@HisllllDudeness As we say in the theory of selection, a chicken is simply an egg's way of making another egg. But I don't misunderstand you
@njroode I struggle with this. As do we all. Nothing clever I'm afraid.
@Regressipedia That's not bad. But it seeeps the problem under the "compelling" rug. I like it though.
@angryshot I like free speech but not absolute free speech. The US is the finer but not the latter.
Two solid mid-30s US PhDs in research should be able to expect: A) Jobs in same city. B) Live-in help. C) Private schools. D) A second home.
@noise_ratio Cool. Go on. I'm interested in 'no'.
@noise_ratio It's an artificial labor market because it produces a public good. We task it to provide prosperity but run it as a sweat shop.
@Varzoth 1960s US had a lot of that. We have fallen.
@Varzoth University system stopped expanding. Laws were changed. Foreign labor was imported to make bargaining for wages nearly impossible.
Can we drown out @united's safety script w passenger participation? Ex: "In the unlikely event of a waterboarding"
- UnitedAirlinesHorrorShow
.@united There has to be a hack against mere learned helplessness. If we can't avoid @united, driving their cost is necessary to complete the market.
"[Weinstein] failed to understand the changing fortunes of S&E PhDs in the marketized, globalized, & financialized New Economy" -W @Lazonick https://t.co/41TdEk0l8O
To save a future for our market based economy, we must draw leaders from STEM fields which we have now subordinated: https://t.co/lN0SWX6URd
My wife & @INETeconomics Senior Economist @PiaMalaney interviews @timoreilly on how to steer innovation through story-telling so that markets don’t steer us into dystopia. Long...and worth it:
@INETeconomics @PiaMalaney @timoreilly Behind the scenes shot at the Edinburgh @INETeconomics conference @timoreilly interview. https://t.co/nVf6vkGG7P
@rivatez @INETeconomics @PiaMalaney @timoreilly Me too! I got so many ideas here from both @timoreilly and @PiaMalaney... and not just on technology, but also on markets and humanity more generally. Can’t wait for CIGS which Pia and @INETeconomics are co-founding and which Tim is advising.
@LibertyRBlack @INETeconomics @PiaMalaney @timoreilly Thanks Liberty! Can’t blame a guy for marrying up.
Just listened to my friend @SamHarrisOrg w/ @RadioFreeTom.
I was unexpectedly bewildered. Given the right forum, it would be an honor & privilege to steelman the substantive case against experts & their institutions into coastal-friendly PhD-style expert terminology & language. https://t.co/qVf4udNnco
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg First of all, nice to meet you Tom.
I’m concerned that many of those rejecting the highly trained, experienced & credentialed are trying to send a cogent & reasonable message that can be strawmanned because they don’t speak the language of the academy. I think we can translate.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg 1/ Great. It sounds like we agree on a lot. Let’s agree we shouldn’t attack real expertise or fetishize the simple wisdom of laypeople in expert matters. What I think is happening is that lay people are catching on that they are being priced out of the market for expert loyalty.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg 2/ I think most lay people believe in experts...and the new words for expert are personal, private, etc. They believe experts are now private doctors. Personal chefs. Private pilots. Private police and fire depts. So there’s awareness, but no loss of confidence in experts.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg 3/ This then leads to the public experts & intellectuals. Here laypeople are increasingly conscious of real games played in back rooms & razzledazzle at the podium. This is the realm of the Esoteric/Exoteric experts w public theories for the out-group & real ones for insiders.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg 5/ If I take what I saw as the big three trust breakers in the 2016 election:
I) Free Trade II) immigration III) Terror
Each was defended by experts to the public by a suite of out and out lies that were maddeningly self evident. As if outsiders and morons were the same thing.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg 6/ In all three cases there was essentially a reality embargo to the public by expert cartels. Krugman called the case for freer trade an elite scam. The Immigration act of 1990 *actually* involved an expert conspiracy to promote a fictitious “STEM shortage” to lower tech wages.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg /End And in the case of terror, it was so weird that politicians would look for any motive except *religion* for some reason that must be from some policy. The level of fiction given to the public was beyond insulting. It was outright derision & contempt. And the derided saw it.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg Okay. I'm claiming that if we put the adjective 'private' in front of nouns associated w expertise (physician --> private physician, school --> private school, etc.) you'll find lay people believing it represents real expertise & thus an unfair advantage. They believe in experts.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg What they intuitively don't believe in as much are their experts: ones they pay for/elect (H&R Bloch, their HMO, their senator etc..) or the ones provided for them (news analysts, columnists, public intellectuals). And this distrust is about expert loyalty, not expertise itself.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg Nah. It’s about institutional betrayal. Nobody resents Elon Musk or Tony Stark for wealth. The poor want experts.
And I’m just looking to you & Sam as my fellow experts to help me try to stop those betrayed from sending a wrecking-ball through the infrastructure of our world.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg Oh cool. “Institutional Betrayal” is an academic theory for trauma differentiation of @jjforegon. You in particular should find it interesting I think. People betrayed by institutions with mandates to care for them behave differently re trauma.
Helps to explain a lot in 2008-17.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg Also, the public that is HIGH agency is looking for alternate non-institutional experts: @nntaleb @BretWeinstein @jordanbpeterson @CHSommers @SamHarrisOrg @HeatherEHeying @PiaMalaney @peterthiel @DouglasKMurray @Raheelraza @tristanharris @sparker etc....
@nntaleb @RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg @BretWeinstein @jordanbpeterson @CHSommers @HeatherEHeying @PiaMalaney @peterthiel @DouglasKMurray @Raheelraza @tristanharris @sparker Hi Nassim, With 66 dyadic relationships between 12 individuals there was zero implied pairwise mutual endorsement or respect implied. I’m certainly happy to make that explicit here for the record if that wasn’t clear.
@nntaleb @RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg @BretWeinstein @jordanbpeterson @CHSommers @HeatherEHeying @PiaMalaney @peterthiel @DouglasKMurray @Raheelraza @tristanharris @sparker Will read. Thanks!
Great. Let's do this then as I'm can play as an expert too: Harvard PhD. MIT/Harvard/NBER Post-Docs. Sloan Funded. NSF-Fellowship. Etc...
I'm sorry to tell you, *we* the experts have been lying to Laypeople on Trade, Immigration, STEM and Terror. The crumbling embargo was real. https://t.co/qzOTBiOErD
1/ I was in multiple closed rooms where experts told me over and over "Well of course we can never say that to the public/donors/students/patients/voters." Cambridge MA, Washington D.C., New York. And now, San Francisco too where it hit quite a few years later.
2/ Let me tell you what we've been lying about (in elite terminology) on MAJOR issues one by one: immigration, trade, STEM, mortgage backed securities and self-regulation, terror, fake news and conspiracy. [I will need to run a few errands now, but will return here later today.]
@MiriamMakEnergy Sorry Miriam: The laypeople don't speak the academy's language so the academy resists the laity and disparages them. Renegade experts who are tired of the expert cartels' embargo against sharing more deep expertise with the laity can translate the laity to the cartels. Helpful?
3/ IMMIGRATION: EXPERT LIES Experts lie about work based immigration as needed for free markets to remove a tiny 'Harberger Triangle' of inefficiency. It is the reverse: an uncompensated taking of citizen's rights without securitization to transfer a massive 'Borjas Rectangle'.
4/ IMMIGRATION (CONTINUED). In free markets, citizens TRADE their rights of preferential labor market access a la Coase's theorem. The giant Borjas Rectangle would stay w/ labor. Inequality could reverse. Women/minorities would enter. Income might again rise. Foreigners welcomed.
5/ IMMIGRATION (CONTINUED). Here is an expert article I wrote on the subject (peer reviewed, UN sponsored Journal): https://t.co/RpUWq1vj4Z
Of course the expert community pretends it isn't there as they support a wealth transfer through forced takings of workers' livelihoods.
6/ TRADE: EXPERT LIES. In the theory of trade, lies are deeply layered. First there is a nonsensical emphasis on Pareto improvement (as if that was a meaningful social welfare function) & a denial of cardinal utility to stop diminishing returns arguments being applied to wealth.
7/ TRADE (continued): [ for @RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg ] Then we substitute a Kaldor-Hicks standard for Pareto welfare as if we were going to tax winners to pay losers. Which trade economists laugh about. Because what factory worker ever heard of “unimplemeted Kaldor-Hicks”.
8/ As the grandson of a seamstress, a door2door used clothing salesman, a self educated chemist thrown out of work for his politics and a female college grad who couldn’t work in a man’s world, it feels great to stand as a STEM PhD speaking the language of the academy for them.
@SamHarrisOrg @RadioFreeTom 9/TRADE (CONT.): Then there‘s the appearance of “Comparative Advantage” which was recently revealed as an iron clad Exoteric explanation trade experts give to all but each other because the real Esoteric is “too complex” for the rest of us & has holes.
@LibertyRBlack The seamstress and the Shmata salesman.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg
These are from trade theorist @paulkrugman in his “Protectionist Moment” piece. I’m not trying to win here. I’m worried that you aren’t watching how this neo-liberal edifice is being abandoned because the expert’s public stance was a lie. https://t.co/335ziGS6Sj
@GodDoesnt @RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg @paulkrugman That doesn’t solve it. Are the Harvard and UChicago Econ departments elite or expert? National Academy complex? Same question. NPR? CFR?
Where are the non-elite experts? They are off the institutional grid. They were disappeared. They don’t exist. Yet they are my Shabbat guests.
@GodDoesnt @RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg @paulkrugman Same here. All I’m saying is the institutional elites compromise their institutional experts. Every day, institutional experts are free to speak against their institution’s bias. It’s the next day when survivor bias kicks in. Now repeat across non-financially independent experts.
@fazinga They are typically educated at top universities. They are typically in non-standard employment. I frequently don’t like what they are saying as it is often disturbing.
@SamHarrisOrg @RadioFreeTom 10/TRADE (CONT.) Look at the slide & listen to this talk from a former Clinton administration economist. Notice the words 'Esoteric' vs. 'Exoteric'. Claiming the real arguments are too complex to math guys like me is laughable: https://t.co/Tbf9GTl343 https://t.co/YGM8KdXmdf
11/ TRADE (CONT.) Now what happened when @PiaMalaney, a Harvard PhD Economist finally got to explain to the 'experts' why the world is rejecting experts, and in their own professional language? She's *totally* ignored by the panel.
As if nothing happened. https://t.co/r9jNDgk3Ei https://t.co/oXko1AShoG
@SamHarrisOrg @RadioFreeTom
12/ End.
I'll pause here. But there's an entire world of Ivy-Level experts who the public suspects exist. People who have paid for their integrity with their careers. Either undisappear these good folks ... or prepare for 7 more years of Trump.
@disitinerant @GodDoesnt @RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg @paulkrugman Accurate.
@GodDoesnt @disitinerant @RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg @paulkrugman Nah. Just more systems of selective pressures ...
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg @paulkrugman What are your thoughts here @RadioFreeTom? I can go into detail on a number of these. We could do the fake STEM shortage backed by the @NSF and @theNASciences if you don’t believe in such things.
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg @paulkrugman @NSF @theNASciences Do we disagree on fundamentals over this: https://t.co/VLf1pZwjhP
@RadioFreeTom @SamHarrisOrg @paulkrugman @NSF @theNASciences And, no I don’t call something a conspiracy because I disagree w/ experts. I usually agree w/ them! What I disageee with is using expertise to transfer wealth & agency from the supposedly childlike voters who intuit something is rigged but can’t name it in political 3 card Monty.
@Noahpinion So if we push out supply curves there is no first order depressing effect on price...except that maybe it rises? Man this is big. Like Nobel Big!
I mean...I did use supply and demand curves of Borjas. So...What did I get wrong? Do I need to retract:
@Noahpinion Hence my use of the term '1st-order' (partial equilibrium). A full model would go well beyond what you write including social services, chain migration, dependency ratios, negative externalities, concentrated impact, vote dilution, patent production, sending country impact, etc..
@Noahpinion A big game in economics is often who gets to use simple models & who gets forced into adding a million baroque complexities. I agree that immigrants add to demand. Also tax social services. Also pay taxes. Also send remittances. Also found businesses. Also crowd out natives. etc.
@Noahpinion Perhaps you were so busy reacting to the name Borjas that you missed the point of introducing Coase. Coase allows those many nth order effects to be subsumed in the choices of those impacted both positively & negatively. Hence the ability to have unlimited migration. Re-read it.
@Noahpinion Let's not play games. The unpopular transfer from L to K by a forced taking of the rectangle without the securitization of labor's valuable asymmetric rights and workers rights to trade them stands as an issue having nothing to do with your attack on Borjas.
Your move.
@Noahpinion @TimBartik Look again at my paper and you will see something very odd from a mathematician: there are no equations. That came from reviewing this style of argument you are engaging in now. The point isn't this or that effect. It is forced transfers by capital vs voluntary trade with labor.
@Noahpinion @TimBartik No one is arguing that in a full model. The issue isn't about immigrants either. It is about forcible non-Coasian taking of rights through law by employers without trade or consent of labor aided by economics 'experts' portrayed falsely under the banner of free markets.
@Noahpinion @TimBartik Noah, I'm just really not sure what game you're playing. Economists add (e.g. "your model forgot this externality!") and subtract effects (e.g. "for simplicity we neglect"). None of this matters to my paper or point. None of it. My point is expert aided non-consensual transfers.
@Noahpinion @TimBartik You're not even close. In econ 101, agents are rational. Remember? If workers benefit from immigration they will support it in droves. Right?
Let me guess, we have to add baroque adjustments to rationality to explain this self-defeating rejection of mass immigration? Something?
@Noahpinion @TimBartik Oh wow! That's what I *love* about economists: a total reliance on ad hoc selective application of standards to reach desired conclusions.
This is fun. Please apply that selective standard evenly to all of Econ 101 and let's watch your *entire* field disintegrate.
I'll wait.
@Noahpinion @TimBartik Ha! I'm trying Noah. But it's hard to Teleman something when his econ job depends on his not understanding it, no?
Now engage with the point. Why are the rational worker agents from Econ 101 not favoring this mass immigration that enriches them? Is this Econ 101 or Room 101?
@Noahpinion @TimBartik Wait, don't those swings *undermine* your Econ 101 point? The power of the Purcell getcha every time. See attached from:
Noah, I answered all your points substantively. Nothing depended on Partial v General or demand curve modeling. It's about capture. https://t.co/poJztJTjOz
@Noahpinion @TimBartik It's not about polls. It's not about Partial vs General equlibrium models. Not about Econ 101. It's about taking something valuable almost no one would give by choice by having experts defend the interests of employers with selective modeling.
@Noahpinion @TimBartik Noah, I answered every point. You are both for & against Econ 101 while I have no investment in it. If you want to forcibly transfer rights instead of letting workers trade them, ask yourself who you are really trying to benefit.
I'm trying to open borders too, but not as theft.
@Noahpinion @TimBartik If you want to write a paper detailing my failures, it will be an honor to review it fairly. But it had ZERO dependence on any of the points you made. Including demand curves. Be well.
@Noahpinion @TimBartik If you're honest, then stop w/ the red herrings on Demand Curve modeling as my point is TOTALLY agnostic to that. You write that my paper "Is a good idea that deserves much more thought!" Okay. Don't tell me. Show me a lack of capture. Put in demand curve shocks. NOTHING changes. https://t.co/n8s40niyuf
2018[edit]
1/ The "Adj.-Profession-Name" Formula, Disagreeables, & the "No-Living-Heroes" thy. Consider adjectives:
Embattled Controversial Divisive Reclusive Provocative Struggling Right-Wing Eccentric Self-styled Far-Left Recovering Disgraced Self-Promoting Free-thinking Volatile etc.
2/ These adjectives are really reserved terms and the 'tells' of mainstream media letting you know who is off-narrative and who they have marked for reputation neutralization through FUD (Fear-Uncertainty and Doubt) campaigns.
3/ So what's wrong with calling a professor who is controversial, a "controversial professor" you may fairly ask? The problem is that MSM builds clientside architecture in your own mind that you don't notice. Proof? Check the graphic attached. https://t.co/leVhC7eAmc
4/ Apparently in the entire history of the internet, this tweet is the first to ever use the phrase "controversial professor Paul Krugman" to describe @paulkrugman even though he is famous for being a controversial professor.
So...how can that be?
5/ Let’s first dig a bit to look for positive framings of my colleague “controversial professor” @jordanbpeterson. Consider these attachments for a man whose fame is largely due to being a noble inspirational heroic maverick.
The point is that real humans don’t talk like this. https://t.co/bfXGG8EMEu
6/ My point here is that our minds are programmed to recognize the “Gated Institutional Narrative” or GIN and to take our emotional instructions from it. This is Orwell’s 1984 Newspeak: Adjective-Profession-Target.
Or so asserts self-styled Internet personality @EricRWeinstein.
7/ So who are the targets? Men and women who are off the charts on the Big-5 psychometric for disagreeability. These people are the pool from which our greatest Nobel Laureates & even heroes were once drawn.
And right now the internet is having a bull market in disagreeability.
8/ This brings us to one of my most controversial theories: Ever since Lindbergh’s attempt to keep the US out of WWII, our institutions have fought against us having ANY living heroes with self-minted credibility.
This leaves a vacuum filled by acceptable institutional figures. https://t.co/F20C61HOAE
9/ The lesson learned from Lindbergh appears to be that Mavericks are too dangerous to institutions...and in the case of Lindbergh that made some sense. But what about a John Lennon? Frances Kelsey? Charlie Chaplin? Paul Robeson? Frank Wilkinson? Katharine Hepburn?
10/ Here’s the punchline: There are suddenly way way too many disagreeable individual voices to be found for people trying to escape from the constant cognitive abuse of our institutions, which want our co-dependence on them.
So something new *has* to happen.
Here goes...
/11
Either:
A) The spell of the GIN breaks and we have lots of real self-minted heroes again.
B) Disagreeables like Jordan Peterson, Camille Paglia, Nassim Taleb, Douglas Murray, Claire Lehman, etc... all get taken out.
C) The institutions seat some of the disagreeables.
/END My prediction is that the Gated Institutional Narrative will fail. Exotic measures will be tried to get rid of the strong voices as was done to Jean Seberg. And then, at long bloody last, the institutions will seat the disagreeables. Here’s to Harvard Professor Nassim Taleb. https://t.co/2XY12Mu3q1
@vyodaiken You aren’t getting it. He had been a hero from aviation. The fact that he had unrelated troubling loyalties and views was a *real* problem. The fix to that problem constitutes a *different* real problem.
@vyodaiken Woah. I get it now. You want to play the Cathy Newman strawman game! Very well. If we must:
Wait! I mentioned Paul Robeson too. And you didn’t condemn him immediately in the strongest terms?! For shame! He supported a mass murderer: Stalin!
Checkmate:
@vyodaiken Then we have achieved parity. Be well.
"Today, the dollar surged against equities" said no financial reporter ever in describing a market sell-off. Beware of cheer-leading journalism. No "long only" portfolio is ever diversified. Long-only means being short a single security that you're encouraged not to think about. https://t.co/aZ8EjL3d4s
@naval Hmm. I would have thought rent-seekers vs economic and societal contributors.
@naval I agree that it can get messy when we step away from that which markets can fairly price. But production of public goods, the value of kin work (dominated by females), and the lack of recognition accruing to many in STEM make it imperative that we venture onto the slippery slope.
Every time I hear “Tax is theft” or “Scientists are welfare queens in lab coats” or “Science would be better left to the free market” or “Why should my taxpayer dollars be used for research?” I’m reminded that US Republicans don’t want to be the party of sound economic theory.
@BatDaddyOfThree I tried for every. Dare to dream.
@Stevenwoolery Not my position. But thanks. I think elites are very dangerous. However there are technical things that must be managed by technical people. Markets and ballots should be used over elites where possible. But not everywhere.
Those who like the idea of arming teachers don’t think a lot about the minority of angry unstable overstressed people who also happen to be teachers.
My Prediction: Arming poorly-paid over stressed undervetted teachers will create an entirely different class of school shooting.
@jerrylieb12 I was a teacher. I also documented government tampering with the free market in my sector. Not going to rehash here today. Another time...
@DizzyJude Not stolen but much appreciated. No claim of originality here.
[I should point out I have not read every article nor watched every video on the internet. Yet.]
@RoJoe2012 @AppFlyer Just give him time.
Thanks for asking Alex. “Welfare Queens in White Lab Coats” is an oft repeated epithet since the Reagan-Bush era in anti-tax circles. Certainly Prof Rustum Roy said it. RR’s NSF Director boosted it. But I‘m referring to its amplification by free marketeers who ignore mkt failure. https://t.co/rj4YDMmpTg
As for boosts in Scientific funding, I’m not saying all US Republicans are anti-science funding. On the contrary. Many see it as an extension of security funding or competitiveness. But what drives many scientists away is an unwillingness to be careful about public goods & taxes.
@AlexBerezow Well, given that you hadn’t yet heard the expression before I’m thinking you may want to look at the history before retooling the implicit accusation that this was nothing. Erich Bloch wasn’t a nut. Nor was Roy.
[You can steelman your argument by pointing out Proxmire as a Dem.]
@AlexBerezow I’m sorry! I’m only aware of your book on the anti-scientific left (which is a huge problem as well), but not any work on the “anti-scientific” right. What do you write about Erich Bloch? I’m curious because I also covered him in my work. Can’t wait to discuss.
@joeseybert I may be wrong too! Happy to learn.
@AlexBerezow Likely an astute call; it sounds mostly correct. I would bet you are also younger. I’m further convinced the recent strengthening of the anti-science movement on the political Left may weirdly be influencing a shift on the political right.
There was a mysterious structural blow to markets around ‘70. Our problems largely stem from the Boomer response which was to hide the wound untreated for decades to live out life in a style above that to which their parents had become accustomed.
And the end of that is our now.
A lot of folks are curious about where I stand on @RealCandaceO. Here are things I’m watching for: a) as someone w/ strong support for Israel, I’m hoping Candace will talk about the need to decouple issues of police brutality against US blacks from any anti-Israel stance of BLM.
b) I’m looking to see whether she‘s going to take on the Race & IQ discussion from the point of recognizing the myriad examples of Black genius we drown in as Americans, which would be unlikely under the simple bell curve argument. Not my issue, but one that upsets me greatly.
c) I’m looking to see if she builds kindness & empathy toward those she opposes. Here she’s reached out to me as a Bernie voter with generousity of spirit. But I’d love to see more of such heart & compassion.
These are all things I’ve said to her directly. So I’ll watch & wait.
But what I’m sure of is that Candace is 100% her own person who will become whoever she want to become & has the talent to make a huge impact. So I’d like to be helpful (if that it is going to be positive as I see the world) from across the aisle. A loyal opposition is important.
@n_bresnahan @RealCandaceO Police brutality can be a BIG problem but it varies by location. How big a problem and how anti-black it is, is a matter of data and experience. I think she thinks it’s exaggerated relative to the data in aggregate. I hear that from some academics but don’t know myself.
@DoughTheory @RealCandaceO Really?? You aren’t getting it. The anti-Israel issue is a divisive intersectional wedge issue keeping blacks & Jews from coming together. It is SUPER important because it creates a catastrophic illusion that US Jews won’t fight for Black justice. Which is just tactical bullshit.
@AlexanderBlum0 @RealCandaceO It’s an order of operations issue. Fighting needless wedge issues brings coalitions on line which allow leverage. We want to come together. I’m talking about clearing away needless obstacles first.
@jeffgiesea @RealCandaceO I would never do that. Have you met her?? Ha! I don’t think anyone can goad her. She’s one of the most forceful self defined people I’ve ever met. Given that I’m not a conservative, I’m talking about my issues for people who want to know why I’m taking an interest.
@AlexanderBlum0 @RealCandaceO Optics I can’t speak to. Anti-Black racism is obviously real. I’d be *shocked* if @RealCandaceO said it wasn’t in a calm moment. She does make claims that it’s exaggerated for political gain though. But I’m not getting in there when there are black voices I’d rather listen to.
@nathano_j @AlexanderBlum0 @RealCandaceO And selective prosecution.
@KenfukintuckyKJ Not a fan of Bernie’s views of Markets.
@YankeleZ Are you unaware of the other choices?? It wasn’t really a “design your own pizza” kind of election.
@Pathfinder4545 No I’m not. I’m intuiting from my experiences that there is some wrong with the tail analysis. I have a guess what it is as well but don’t want to wade in until I have the time to see if it bears some preliminary scrutiny.
@OldmanOfTheWeb @_HelenDale @SexyIsntSexist @HPluckrose @GSpellchecker I do tend to hang out with people who talk about ideas and aren’t fixated on the melanin content of my skin, my Y-Chromosome, or my lucky country of birth. How that became “the Right” is beyond me. I missed the mother of all memos it would seem.
@_HelenDale @OldmanOfTheWeb @SexyIsntSexist @HPluckrose @GSpellchecker Do you have a theory? It seems like some reprogramming happened at scale that no one can put his or her finger on.
@_HelenDale @HPluckrose @TheAlchemist235 @OldmanOfTheWeb @SexyIsntSexist @GSpellchecker Cool! Id love to learn. I’ve been working up a few too having to do with emotional intelligence, social and emotional learning, social media + mobile and decreased friction in the return of costs, post Lehman bros household formation issues, etc..
@TheRealAltLeft @OldmanOfTheWeb @_HelenDale @SexyIsntSexist @HPluckrose @GSpellchecker I particularly dislike the “libtard” “commie” and “baby murderer” epithets, or beliefs that markets are without market failure. So I’m not fooling myself. But the right is getting more civil as the Left gets less liberal because the liberal civil left is homeless for a bit.
@dandrezner "all these thinkers can do is appease their followers. They are thought leaders who cannot demonstrate any leadership." -@dandrezner
Nice to meet you Dan. But that "take" comes from where exactly? Research? Personal interaction? You left me confused because it didn't make sense.
@dandrezner @bariweiss Splendid. But that "Take" isn't what the IDW is about. I mean do you take issue w/ my work on labor markets? Mortgage backed securities? CPI and GDP? Bret's take on drug testing on specially bred mice? Heather on risk in Education? Ben's conservative objection to Breitbart/Trump?
@dandrezner @bariweiss Are you objecting to Sam Harris' desire to put transcendence into Athiesm via meditation or even psychedlics? Jordan's emphasis on needing to offer unapologetically family/work-oriented male models to outcompete the lure of hate?
It just seems you found a take without a basis.
@dandrezner @bariweiss May I ask you to look again or too explain why all the interesting things we talk about are of no interest? You might want to look at my essays on Russell Conjugation, Excellence, The crisis in Physics, Four Quadrant model, Kayfabe, Anthropic Capitalism, Coasian immigration, etc.
@dandrezner @bariweiss And that's just my stuff. Every one of us has such a catalog. How are you saying none of this is of any interest. You can see that from our engagement on even on technical geeky topics. This isn't about SJWs gone mad.
I think you may have jumped the gun. Do reconsider.
@dandrezner @bariweiss How did it go? Honestly I would have thought this research would happen before forming such a strong conclusion.
@dandrezner @bariweiss [please continue to hold.....]
Okay. So, I'm not an evolutionary biologist with expertise in mating systems. But I do have an internet connection, a deep love of nature, and once stayed in a @holidayinnexpre ss.
A paper on "Enforced Monogamy" from the "Journal of Evolutionary Biology": https://t.co/xS5pJ7hQIN https://t.co/pDw60uCxc2
Want more? This is funny.
So, not only is "Enforced Monogamy" a reserved academic term in a few different areas, the @nytimes own search engine shows at least 2 separate positive references to the term as a positive progressive ideal in 2000 & '02 before @jordanbpeterson's use.
Here the @nytimes publishes a review pointing out "enforced monogamy" should be a positive progressive *feminist* ideal in humans, likely to "[reduce] sexual conflict", increase paternal investment in child rearing obligations & giving healthier offspring. https://t.co/OTdlFV0Mjp https://t.co/wQhtjure32
In the other @nytimes reference I find before the @jordanbpeterson hit piece, the NYT is talking about *progressive reforms* in 1928 Afghanistan where "Enforced Monogamy" is discussed alongside "Separation of Church & State" and...wait for it..."Emancipation of Women".
Wild, no? https://t.co/KaTuYPSon3
@clairlemon @DavidDeutschOxf @nytimes I’m fairly sure David recognizes my original argument (a NYT review seeing enforced monogamy as a feminist utopia) and is starting a new line of thought rather than his thinking I’m promoting experimentally enforced monogamy trials in humans based on a drosophila model. A hunch.
@l0g1c9uY @nytimes @jordanbpeterson Shhh. Not so loud, or everyone will find out.
@Kev_in_Canada @nytimes More to the point things like cryptic female choice in fruit flies, or concealed ovulation in humans make a big difference as systems, to say nothing of relative k vs r-selection. But the assertion of relevance to humans wasn’t mine. It was in the review.
@quinnessential @JeffWilson4570 @holidayinnexpre God this is so hard. All of us are bored by these takedown pieces intellectually. The gotchas. The Cathy Newman style interviews. It’s not marketing strategy.
We listen to the MSM often for the reasons that hostages pay attention to their AK-47 wielding captors’ idiot politics.
@tomeclarke @Vox_The_Weeds @DLind @mattyglesias @cjane87 I heard that one too with @ezraklein struggling to understand that this might be a major problem. So bizarre.
@tomeclarke @Vox_The_Weeds @DLind @mattyglesias @cjane87 @ezraklein Well, @tylercowen is always incisive with his analysis. But the weird point is that the @voxdotcom folks don't seem to intuit that the people who are most livid are thinking liberals who are pro-market, pro-achievement and anti-stupid. Shut down culture is pro-Trump in 2020.
@cjane87 @tomeclarke @Vox_The_Weeds @DLind @mattyglesias @ezraklein @tylercowen @voxdotcom Hi Jane. I listened to Vox’s “the weeds” discussion with you of the so-called IDW which I appear to have named. Where can I even begin. You guys were fine-tuning a highly interpreted shared model of the world that seemed insular & smug to the point of being willfully delusional.
@cjane87 @tomeclarke @Vox_The_Weeds @DLind @mattyglesias @ezraklein @tylercowen @voxdotcom DM received. And returned.
@AdotSad @redstatetake @RealCandaceO Really? Fascinating. You *know* this is her *only* thing? So go on. Tell me.
You see, @RealCandaceO reached out to me despite a vast political chasm between us. Yet you are some kind of special mind with the confidence to contradict my direct personal experience. Do say more!
@AdotSad @redstatetake @RealCandaceO Sorry. What? Huh?? Are you mad?
Candace is a conservative. I believe she is a Trump supporter. She's anti-abortion rights. She's probably very pro-gun rights. She likes red meat tactics.
I don't know who you are, but this is increasingly seeming to be a delusional conversation.
@AdotSad @redstatetake @RealCandaceO And I already answered that. Straightforwardly. I don’t like those public tactics. Your weird inability to hear is getting creepy. Going to have to bail out soon. You aren’t getting it.
@AdotSad @redstatetake @RealCandaceO People? Who people? The MSM & “progressive” Commentariats?? Don’t make me laugh. They’re a guild losing market share & we compete with them. And I’m generally not fighting Trump you confused soul. I’m fighting any doubling down on the crazy failed HRC strategy that elected Trump.
@AdotSad @redstatetake @RealCandaceO Gaslight???
I’m out. Be well.
@scottie1479 @AdotSad @redstatetake @RealCandaceO I voted for her. I was upset that she beat Bernie and lost to Trump. But I think she was atrocious as a candidate for 2016. Anyone sane, competent, honest and truly compassionate could have won as a Democrat over Trump.
@redstatetake @egohorrified @AdotSad @RealCandaceO I’d be happy to hear that. But to keep pushing relentlessly as if there is no chasm between me and Candace? I mean, really??
And...uh...“gaslighting”?? Asking me to repeatedly denounce someone’s aggressive tactics after I’ve been clear? Doesn’t follow me? Something is off here.
I don’t mind @Noahpinion making this wrong argument as a neo-liberal political activist. Just not as an economist, an expert, or an academician.
Because he‘s certainly aware that this hasn’t been a free lunch. It’s designed as cryptic wealth transfer:
@Noahpinion You are actually playing stupid? That’s mind blowing. You should be well aware that the NAS who you cited is the CENTER of the market manipulation. That is, you are citing the bad actor as impartial judge! Who do you think is behind the collusion Noah??
It’s NAS. Read my paper.
@Noahpinion Woah. Am I supposed to be afraid of the @theNASciences?? And social scientists? I quake in my boots.
Sit down my son. The NAS has invited me on at least four occasions to explain this ‘conspiracy’ to them. They have thanked me for it, paid my expenses, & never challenged it.
@Noahpinion No one is buying? Other than the NAS itself who bought it when they invited me and gave me a standing Ovation. Then invited me to their COSEPUP committee and reacted in horror. Then invited me back to address their GUIRR committee. Etc...
So the NAS bought it. But do keep going.
@Noahpinion Not following you into another meaningless briar patch. You can contend with my paper. I’ll wait.
@bkr114895 @Noahpinion Who deleted what tweet?? I didn’t see it.
I disagree w @SamHarrisOrg here & am far more troubled by @nytimes than he. I think what he thinks makes it pretty good is exactly what makes it terrifying to me. I agree it often fact checks. It’s well written. It often includes reporting. But news-narratives are a deal breaker. https://t.co/8pfyUhD6zM
This is a disagreement worthy of the IDW. It is worth exploring civily.
Defending @jordanbpeterson against NYT insinuations that he is an MRA who wants women to be redistributed to celibate losers under enforced monogamy intervention programs?? It just wasted everyone’s time.
@Bugs_Meany @NicoDelon @jordanbpeterson [Watching this thread with some interest]
@heinousjay @NicoDelon @Bugs_Meany @jordanbpeterson Fascinating.
@primalpoly @SamHarrisOrg @nytimes Exactly, no? I’m fascinated by why this point is so difficult to make. It’s the “uncanny valley of journalism” where things get hyper disturbing the closer the form gets to objectivity, while the narrative remains the true, if hidden, driver.
@RubinReport @jordanbpeterson @SamHarrisOrg I’d do it if we could broaden this to include multiple points of difference. I also would be willing to discuss my extreme discomfort w/ this administration with you and why you and I disagree about it it. I’d also love to talk to @benshapiro on abortion and market failure. Etc..
@SamHarrisOrg @primalpoly @nytimes Okay. From my side I want to agree w/ you that fact checking at NYT is still pretty good. Where I’m going is omission checking, Russell Conjugated emotional instructions, narrative driven reporting, character assassination, etc.
Fact checking makes this worse to me. Not better.
@SamHarrisOrg @primalpoly @nytimes In other words I’m not as worried about the facts. I can often pick facts out of the soup of political cheerleading. If NYT were perfect on all the facts they reported it wouldn’t solve the problem. Might it not, arguably, make the omissions/narrative/assassination problem worse?
@SamHarrisOrg @primalpoly @nytimes But, @SamHarrisOrg. Is the problem here that your definitions of misinformation actually includes *all* known journalistic distortion tricks (e.g. Russell Conjugation, buried ledes, “to be sure” graphs, etc.). That would shift my sense away from facts as the center of your issue.
@SamHarrisOrg @primalpoly @nytimes Okay! So my guess is that you & I are within range on theory. Perhaps I believe the emotional, cryptic and narrative framings are the center of the story, while you may view the reported facts as the center?
I fear news is now a loss leader & emotional manipulation, the payload.
I’m thinking of making IDW a brand just to keep others from exploiting it. I got patched in to the NY popup conference that formed from the meltdown of @PangburnInspire & it was infuriating. So much love from people traveling from Iceland, Chile, Sweden, etc. I *love* our people!
It’s not about IDW as a name. I can generate a new one. It’s about people losing their heads over $. Our audience is eager to pay good money for courage & intellect and as such that MUST be respected. As of now, I’m taking on other’s responsibilities that are in no way even mine.
@kketils @PangburnInspire So flattered that you guys care so much. Will use any remaining leverage to get answers and money back from @PangburnInspire to y’all however remote the possibility. But then he owes us too of course! Called over tonight. No answer.
You guys rock. Love ya 🇮🇸!!
@Purplep0pe @PangburnInspire Gosh, I‘m having to rethink everything. I met the organizer once & did just one event with him. I like business & markets but hate seeing good people (speakers & ticket buyers) being stiffed and ghosted. Such great new people stepping up to the plate to fill the void too. Argh..
@SvilenK @PangburnInspire That’s pretty cool!
@alejandrina_gr Would you want Merch? Serious question.
@alejandrina_gr Also: nice to ‘meet’ you Alejandrina.
@alejandrina_gr You may be coaxing them out of the vacuum...if you are serious and there is sufficient demand. I’d have no objection to making a small business and a little profit around changing the world and bringing our folks together. Who doesn’t love markets and human decency? I’d buy one..
1/4 Google literally tells you how they bias your view of the world. Only they call it unbiasing. And unbiasing is supposedly politically neutral. It’s just that in the view of woke engineers, conservatives are typically biased by history, privilege, biological essetnialism, etc.
4/4 I hope someone took a shot at this line of questioning. But I’m writing this as a non conservative because this “no bias” game is moronic. We don’t need ‘fresh faces’. We need tough folks in congress w/ technical backgrounds who can operate in all areas where Google operates.
3/4
Q3) If you found conservatives were likely to believe in more traditional interpretations of Gender, Biology, Markets, Military Power, Ethnicity, Religion, Borders, Psychology, Wealth, Achievement, would they be more likely to be *unbiased* by Google?
That’s how this works.
2/4 Mr Pichai:
Q1) Do you *unbias* search you think is biased under an internal “ML-Fairness” initiative?
Q2) Did Google find that History can represent “latency bias”? Findings in biology/psychology can lead to exclusion bias? Economic theory can lead to inequality bias? Etc.
2019[edit]
MWTFMIAETGA!
[Make Wage Tampering, Free Market Interference And Employee-Tethering Great Again.]
@shaniquaotoole :-)
I’d like to ask @benshapiro a difficult question: what happens if free market commerce in the future fails to return sufficient fuel for the unremarkable median worker’s need for family formation? That is a home & marriage in a robust labor market in time for 2 kids. Then what?
@benshapiro Oddly, that’s about where I am: we may need managed markets. I cede to you that many things have gotten better but imagine we both agree that the need for two incomes to do the work previously done by one & the increase in variance in our labor markets are negatives for families?
@benshapiro Partially. Yes. But there is reverse causality also. There aren't that many 27YO breadwinners that can properly support a care-giving co-parent for 10-15 years of kid rearing. Also, the knowledge work traditionally more done by men has gotten more fulfilling relative to kin work.
@benshapiro I don't know. The decoupling of sex from reproduction was a 1960s earthquake and I don't think we will or should go back to marriage before 22 as an expectation. I would think career uncertainty is often a bigger factor than the wage levels we focus on for things like mortgages.
@benshapiro But another question I don't get: why is 'family' not the obvious unit to focus on in an on-going society? Gay or straight, rearing kids is about continuation. Why does family take a back seat to either identity collectives (left) or individuals (right) with secular commentators?
@benshapiro "Lefty mathematician engages Ben Shapiro and instantly regrets it." or "Shapiro destroys closet communist with one remark!"?
Either way it would be a pleasure. Any time boychick. Thanks for engaging my friend.
@_jeff_jaramillo @benshapiro Boychick? Ah. You mean It sounds non binary if you didn’t grow up with yiddishkeit?
@benshapiro We should where “early” is a bit later than it used to be. But still in our twenties as an expectation. Let’s discuss it on your show.
@benshapiro @ZanderKelly30 I agree with this but think a lot of the cultural and spiritual problem has to do with people who want families not being able to see a path towards sufficient financial stability. We have to deal more ordinary folks in earlier.
But again, let's do it on the show as you suggest.
No mainstream outlet has properly covered this story in 25 years. Every big paper has asked about it. Yet every story is always spiked by an editor. It just sits there in full view of the entire press core.
It is what proved to me that there is no actual newspaper in America.
Let me remind you what the National Science Foundation / National Academy were really up to w/ high skilled immigration. But let’s do it in their own words from their own secret study which they hid from the public. It was about tampering w/ free markets to hobble US scientists. https://t.co/uZOTApkeHi
@KevinYen I don’t know. Many reporters have gone fairly far. Then one day you get the call: “Uh, the story we were working on is dead.” Or “My editor says she loves it but says to hold off.” or “I was told the Optics are wrong for our paper.” Or some other weird thing. Always.
@SamEdwa61996553 Absolutely. Total conspiracy. Why? Do you believe conspiracies are all bullshit? I know too much settled history to play that game.
@EvolutionistXX https://t.co/Dn7SdovUSJ
@Crystal_cv512hg https://t.co/Dn7SdovUSJ
@EstherOfReilly https://t.co/Dn7SdovUSJ
@Aceinmysleeve1 You are the winner!
@nedjeffery It doesn’t do any good on Twitter. The Gated Institutional Narrative is where the policy action is. They are the ones who pretend it doesn’t exist because they know it’s true.
@EvolutionistXX Sure thing.
@StevenWallman @eiaine That’s what birthed H1B.
@Turin_Luca https://t.co/Dn7SdovUSJ
@youBUOY @Aceinmysleeve1 Bien sur! Sorry.
@Turin_Luca Of course.
@MAWalke12024508 @KMGVictoria I want to know what stops this story.
@TreiberS It’s one hell of a rabbit hole. Yes, senior scientists and employers destroyed the career path for their younger colleagues. That was the shocker. It was the NSF/NAS.
@csgrandfield Sure. But don’t stop there. Why not flood 10% of our occupations for the benefit of the other 90%? We could play “labor roulette” to choose who loses.
“We have an inclusive offer for you.” “It’s like having my own public chef!” “Coming up at 11pm, we have a world inclusive.” “Ever dream of a public island?”
I see people openly singing the praises of all that is inclusive/public. Meanwhile, marketers connect to our real selves.
2/ The technique involves bundling an attacking position and a retreating position where the retreat is low cost and reasonable while the attack is wildly simplistic, irresponsible and generally too expensive to maintain. The attack is frequently literal & the retreat figurative.
1/ I’ve been noticing a ubiquitous technique recently upon which I have seen little commented. “Punchable face”, #killallmen, “Open Borders”, “Tax is Theft”, “Believe Women”, “Free markets”, “Free Speech” and uptalking are examples. I want to explain here what I see linking them.
3/ As @ezraklein pointed out for the attack position #KillAllMen dripping with sexism & misandry, the retreat position is “it would be nice if the world sucked less for women”. Likewise “Open Borders” can collapse all the way down to “I don’t want to see immigrants scapegoated”. https://t.co/ldMxgXH6ZS
7/ Let’s call amalgams of attack and retreat Split-Level Arguments. We need to stop allowing these gambits to go unnoticed. They are like Navy SEALS dressed up as adorable toddlers. If you‘re advancing “Free Markets”, pay the price for the simplicity you just bought when pressed.
6/ In the previous examples, the literal position has been the aggressive one, but that’s not even always true. Sometime I hear “Feminism is simply the proposition that women are equal.” which would be the retreat position with which only a loon would be tempted to argue.
5/ “Tax is theft” is a broad clean insane attack on nationhood, but if you bring up the problem of military protection as a well known public good & market defect, you get told that “Tax is Teft” is just a plea for smaller more prudent government. Okay. So why are we doing this?
4/ Uptalking seems to be a speech pattern that has, among other benefits, figured out how to make an aggressive statement which would normally be costly in the underlying text for the price of just kinda maybe sorta asking a much less expensive (leading) question with one’s tone.
End/ Let’s come up with language to make it very expensive to repeatedly push for something simple, clear & wrong as if we were just saying something reasonable & nuanced.
If you’ve noticed this trend, send me examples or anyone else’s name for it. Thx! 🙏
- SplitLevelArguments
POST/ Deepity and Motte & Bailey are definitely examples of this kind of phenomena as people are pointing out. Question: do they cover the “Uptalking” example to your satisfaction? I’m looking for one universal label that covers them all. Thanks.
Also, in Motte and Bailey, the Bailey is being maintained. It’s not an attacking position. The lord is not questing to conquer the lands of others. I don’t know whether people make that distinction. Eager to learn more.
@rjheathfield Kiddie porn, military secrets, fighting words, etc...
Do she and @charliekirk11 do the red meat thing in public and the search for unity thing in private? Yes. Did I want to out them as searchers for common ground and risk their base’s support? No. They’re political players in a way that I’m not. But I can’t sit by for this.
So we don’t correspond or interact now. Would I take her call? Absolutely. Do I regret calling her a bridge builder? ONLY because she & Charlie Kirk do it *behind* the scenes. She pulled me into her second meeting w @kanyewest despite our differences to heal our national divide.
So I am not going to abandon a human being just because you set up the kill shot on her. I’ll defend the goodness I saw in Candace and go right back to fighting with her on her red meat act when you are done baying for her blood. She’s no Nazi. Cut it out. Clear? Awesome.
And I’m embarrassed to have had to out her as a bridge builder. But she took a guy (me) who disagrees with her on abortion rights, needed adjustments to free markets & all of her maddening red meat right wing bullshit and invited him into the most important meeting of her life.
Candace underthought & misspoke on her comments on Germany under Hitler. Duh. Germany didn’t have a right to *murder* its own Sinti, Roma, Gays and Jews. She doesn’t believe that either. Candace & I disageee about a LOT, but I’m not going to cower and pretend she supports nazis.
@Evolving_Ego @kanyewest Yep. I can’t do it. But I get the logic in a two party system. It’s game theory and I don’t play that game.
@Raiklin @JackPosobiec Thanks for that. Taking some heat so it makes a difference. 🙏
@JayTSack @SamHarrisOrg @joerogan Sam and Joe are no cowards. I draw a lot of strength from real men like those. As far as women who inspire me through courage, @DrDebraSoh @HPluckrose @clairlemon @BridgetPhetasy @bariweiss @PiaMalaney @LeahMcSweeney @HeatherEHeying @meghan_daum have huevos and don’t cut & run.
@JayTSack @SamHarrisOrg @joerogan @DrDebraSoh @HPluckrose @clairlemon @BridgetPhetasy @bariweiss @PiaMalaney @LeahMcSweeney @HeatherEHeying @meghan_daum You don’t have to agree with people to admire who stands up and who wilts under pressure.
@thejd800 @Raiklin @JackPosobiec I wouldn’t say she’s kind so much as she is concerned about the country. She’s tough in private. Very tough. But when we were interacting she was in “great. We disagree so explain what you think I have wrong?” mode. She was trying to learn everything and open to being wrong.
@jesuismx2 I struggle with this to be honest.
@thejd800 @Raiklin @JackPosobiec To be honest, I never felt comfortable that I understood the discrepancy. It was a head scratcher for me.
@mariachong I refute it. And said so. She underthought and misspoke. She was wrong to say what she did the way she did. Hopefully that is clear.
@mariachong Part of the problem is this:
“Globalist” is sometimes a cryptic insult to Jews.
“Nationalist” is sometimes cryptic speech for Jingoist.
Terminology that is overloaded leads to this problem.
It would appear I missed an important memo from our friends at Google. They are going to start algorithmically burying content that doesn’t violate their terms of service.
YouTube & Google constitute much of our market place of ideas. Is that a Free Market? An Open Market?
Okay @Google & @YouTube. We have elections coming up in 2020. Can you be HYPER-specific about what you mean by “doesn’t quite cross the line” as a decision boundary?? Can you describe this classifier in DETAIL given your relationship to civil society & democracy? We have all day.
“We’ll continue ... this year, including taking a closer look at how we can reduce the spread of content that comes close to—but doesn’t quite cross the line of—violating our Community Guidelines. To that end, we’ll begin reducing recommendations of borderline content...” -Google
Who/what is Borderline content? Is that Falt Earthers & @benshapiro? What of people who think Lee Harvey Oswald might not have acted alone? Is that @JamesADamore or people who want to take anti-trust action against @Google? What about those who oppose H1bs you use as tampering?
Watching banks, credit cards, platforms & advertisers casually regulate our speech, makes me think about becoming the anti-@SamHarrisOrg. Haven’t decided yet, but I‘m coming to the conclusion that we may have to fight the battle for speech in the markets by being more commercial.
Q: people are tuning into many channels that advertisers are shunning out of corporate fear and cowardice. Should we make use of this opportunity, and, if so, what is the best way to do it?
Brands: the contrarians filling theaters are doing so for a reason. So...Where are you??
Why are capitalists turning against providing goods/services generally where there are profits to be made by doing social good? We have to stare down the boycott mobs & train the capitalists to practice less cowardly capitalism. Operation chokepoint & Patreon can’t be our future.
@PwnzAll @SamHarrisOrg @SamHarrisOrg is convinced that ads and sponsorship may compromise him. He’s partially right of course. But surrendering the commercial sphere to financial down regulation of legitimate speech may be a more important issue.
1/ Glenn Greenwald, @IlhanMN, the Rosenbergs, Anti-semitism, Progressives, Silence, Speech and the IDW: a thread.
Glenn is upset. He’s a skilled and very smart partisan in my opinion. But I do see him as being on a team & envy him in that regard. That’s why I named the #IDW.
2/ I don’t give hot takes on many items for a reason. Many years ago Bob Dylan made the mistake of recording, in my opinion, the rocker “Julius & Ethel” about the 1953 executions of the Rosenbergs. I think it immoral to have a position on the Rosenbergs:
3/ As I see it the execution of Julius as a filthy spy was justified. The execution of Ethel Rosenberg was an abomination. It was a “message killing” dropped like Luca Brasi’s vest on the doorsteps of progressive Jewish homes: “Go too far left and we *will* orphan your children.” https://t.co/wnoVlbzldB
5/ My point here is that often you don’t have a ‘take’ on a topic like “the Rosenbergs” because you‘re breaking the topic into components. That’s how I feel about @IlhanMN for example. I don’t have a single take. I feel differently on BDS v El Mozote: https://t.co/t7D54aJQOd
4/ I grew up in a world where the Soviet side wasn’t yet clear so all I had were my intuitions. In the mid ‘90s, my intuitions were confirmed that Julius was a ring leader and traitor. Ethel wasn’t totally clean IMO, but a minor figure & executing two parents was unconscionable.
End/ So I don’t know where I am yet on all of this @ggreenwald. I’m pretty sure we are moving to normalize anti-semitism through clear support for BDS in the Democratic Party, but not yet 100% positive & I’m not done fighting. But I’m not cowering or silent. I’m right here Glenn.
6/ I am for and against Hijab as it is not one thing. I am for and against freedom for “hate speech”. I support @aoc’s courage on campaign finance, and can’t stand the authoritarianism. And on&on.
This gets exhausting. So I don’t weigh in the way people who are on one team do.
@goon4218 @ggreenwald I don’t fully know what I think of her yet. That was my point. I have Intuitions here that definitely aren’t happy ones. But I don’t yet know what I think fully. It seems to be hard to hear that. Sorry. Don’t know how to say it better.
@amurshak @ggreenwald Exactly. We need more relative value traders in the market place of ideas.
@dryhandy @ggreenwald I don’t support chilling most speech through law. Whether one should be legally allowed to commercially boycott boycotters is a different question & I don’t like it when such stuff is put under my nose under misleading titles. Also dislike most loyalty oaths most of the time.
@GurneyHalleck85 @dryhandy @ggreenwald Or...You missed it. The abstract language was constructed to oppose left and right tactics simultaneously. I don’t like being maneuvered into corners by one group of partisans at a time. Prefer to handle the game theory of prisoner’s dilemmas all at once via abstraction. Be well.
@torinmccabe @IlhanMN And then some.
@RobBrown_69 @IlhanMN Thx
@ghostandspooky @IlhanMN It’s not a position on “The Rosenbergs”. It’s one position on Julius and an opposite position on Ethel.
@ggreenwald I might be as well (with some ground rules). But I responded to you on Twitter Glenn because you picked this format to get in a dig. I’d like you to not trash me directly or via the IDW here. Even here I was *constructive* & respectful despite how you’ve treated my friends. Fair?
@ggreenwald And Glenn, thanks for engaging. I’ve had a pretty dim view of some of the ways you treated @SamHarrisOrg in particular. But other things you have done have been quite impressive. I would love to find out if we could work through something here. The dichotomy leaves me bewildered.
@mtracey @Ashok__Deshmukh @ggreenwald @SamHarrisOrg @RubinReport Excuse me. Do we know each other? Did I back over your dog...or is this the way you normally open conversation with strangers on difficult topics as an objective journalist? Forgive me, but it does say “Journalist” in your bio. Do you subscribe to the journalist code of ethics?
@mtracey @Ashok__Deshmukh @ggreenwald @SamHarrisOrg @RubinReport Ah. Thank goodness I have an internet connection! Do you have a dispute with the Society of Professional Journalists? Because I’m all ears if you do.
@mtracey @Ashok__Deshmukh @ggreenwald @SamHarrisOrg @RubinReport And before you hide behind the word “universal” that you threw in: https://t.co/kOYdHzwIPT
@mtracey @Ashok__Deshmukh @ggreenwald @SamHarrisOrg @RubinReport I’m not talking about certification. I’m asking if you have a problem w/ the ethics of your claimed profession?
These interactions are so odd. You‘re aware that journalists receive protected legal status in exchange for assuming responsibilities of impartiality, good faith, etc?
@mtracey @Ashok__Deshmukh @ggreenwald @SamHarrisOrg @RubinReport We are talking shield laws, New York Times Co. v Sullivan levels obligations to show malice? Your calling yourself a journalist is like saying you‘re entitled to diplomatic immunity without being a diplomat or being tax exempt as a dry cleaner or chef. You seem to be an activist.
@mtracey @Ashok__Deshmukh @ggreenwald @SamHarrisOrg @RubinReport “Pointless Digression”.
Oh heavens. You really aren’t a journalist are you! You’re an activist.
Here’s why your confusion matters to those you target my good man:
Good day.
- activism
@barryeisler @mtracey @ggreenwald @jayrosen_nyu @SamHarrisOrg @joerogan @ZaidJilani Thanks for being super respectful.
I don’t know you either, but nothing about your tweets puts me off. I intensely dislike the way I was approached. I also am known for saying that activism and the loss of trustworthy sense-making by journalists is going to plunge us into war.
@barryeisler @mtracey @ggreenwald @jayrosen_nyu @SamHarrisOrg @joerogan @ZaidJilani Let me be clear: I *detest* the loss of journalism to activism and I will not stand for the “Bro: you just don’t get twitter.” deflection. Journalists don’t do what @mtracey did in my book. It’s not that I don’t see the changes. I am actively rejecting them with every fiber.
Who can be trusted with the “Make X a human right!” formula? Not me for sure. In fact, I sort of admire socialists for starting with education and healthcare, but even then it’s hard to stop before you get to cookie dough ice cream and jet skis towards the end of the first week.
This is not about government provided healthcare and education. I’m okay with that. It’s about not being open about the dangers of a formula that obscures the transfers needed to acomplish what is presented as a pure good. Let’s just talk about where the resources will come from.
@UtaJohansdottir Next, both Universities and Hospitals are so cryptically funded that our 1st order of business is removal of crypsis. They‘re in some sense lying about every price under the sun. Huge principal agent problems are everywhere. Let’s hire the best forensic accountants to solve this.
@Timothyogan80 That’s not right. This is sensitive to layers of indirection. It really is saying that Taxes should rise to whatever level is needed to incentivize math teachers. It’s not “conscript math teachers.”
But yes. We maintain the right to conscript solider labor as a rare example.
@marcnotk Your nation is under attack and you realize you have a free rider problem for the market failure represented by the public good that is national defense. There‘s also the prisoners dilemma issue that a tiny few who agree to fight voluntarily will pay heavier costs than an army.
You can blame the Principal Investigators who told us this (both male & female). You can blame the universities. You can blame the messenger. But we need to talk about getting STEM moms a LOT more money for help in the house & make more allowances for staying home for 5-10 years.
This is the elephant in the lab.
A secret reason (which we collected anonymously multiple times at NBER/ASCB) for delaying tenure decisions beyond healthy fertility is departmental fear of committing to top women in research for fear they will find motherhood more fulfilling.
And yes, Dads can be more present. But before you go too far down that road, consider that some of the STEM women we spoke to said that they would have WANTED to be at home, particularly with little children (<7) and what they really wanted was a way back to research afterwards.
What we need is a multi-decade “labor shortage” in STEM that brings technical employers howling in pain about employee wage demands. Family demands. Maternal demands. The answer is simple: in STEM the wrong people are in pain. It should be our beloved administrators & employers.
@Skeptique Ever watch a unique mind with the power to change a field get muscled out of research as if her natural desire to breed and care for her young was her problem? No thanks. I’ve had enough. I want the top women to breed as much as they want. More STEM families! Cheap STEM must die.
@dashman76 Well, let’s see. Top STEM moms produce a public good which is valuable. Plus, we *forbid* them from gaining IP rights to basic research. It’s a market failure like the army. Whoever pays the army can pay the basic researchers. After all, they pretty much made the modern economy.
@JonEMay1 You don’t say...
The US mango market is *dominated* by one cultivar: “Tommy Atkins”.
And it sucks. It’s almost inedible.
This pattern of suppressed variety is repeated with Orchids. With Pomegranates. With versions of the periodic table in schools. Etc..
Something in our markets kills variety. https://t.co/8vNlLGBsKP
@loccdor Robust + coloration + shelf-life.
They are gorgeous and shitty fruit.
“Wonderful” pomegranates are fairly tasty however...
@PalePavon We switched from the exquisite “Gros Michel” to the less tasty “Cavendish” due to disease I believe.
@Ruminorang I love those tiny ones.
@nikillinit Seek out the story of Gros Michel and Cavendish.
@MarchwheatJeff Sucks man.
@pmathies Sweet on Janet.
@BeguhnRyan It’s a crime.
We train undergraduates in STEM. That gives science professors a salary. Then as graduate students, profs make them teach & do their research work while denying they’re workers. Then as post-docs we ‘apprentice’ them for more extraction.
Then after multiple PDs we push them out. https://t.co/N5XfFKjUkF
The tweet quoted was apparently deleted. It asked why scientists would want to glut their own market and drive wages down. The answer is that we glut the bottom of the pyramid and make sure that those people used to glut the entry never reach the top of the pyramid to compete.
Stakeholders are undocumented shareholders.
PREDICTION: the word ‘undocumented’ used to glut labor markets is going to come back to surprise the wealthy employers who promoted it in a big way.
Any problem ‘solvable’ by printing more documents is generally about wealth transfer.
I‘d love to debate my friend @AndrewYang on the subject of so-called high-skill immigration.
Resolved: American STEM immigration was deliberately structured by the @NSF & @theNASciences via fake news to undermine the free market bargaining power of the US Scientist & Engineer.
I hope it’s clear that I‘m proposing this out of love for @AndrewYang and his mission. But I want to support his policies as well as the man I consider a friend. If he’s to stand a chance, he has to unlock the Xenophilic-Restrictionist mega block of voters that MSM denies exists.
Our US immigration problem is severe but it is not immigrants. Our problem is a despicable class of cynical fellow Americans hiding behind the immigrant who have weaponized our tolerance and used immigrants to transfer wealth from US labor to US capital. It’s the wealth transfer.
@rsbcvet @AndrewYang @NSF @theNASciences Yes.
@jz_manutd @AndrewYang @NSF @theNASciences Some skilled. Some Asylum. Some family reunification.
With the next Episode of “The Portal” I thought we would switch to a discussion with someone many of you will never have heard of, but whose academic theories help me predict when entire societies are lying to each other, as in 2016 (Trump, Brexit ,...).
- MarketplaceOfDeception
[For those of you who have been waiting patiently for the next episode of “The Portal”, forgive me. My family has been moving homes and I have been somewhat occupied. I do hope you’ll like what’s next. Thanks! ]
@Queeineismyname Shhh.
If there’s a marketplace in ideas, taxing it with political correctness *must* create a black market in truth & authenticity. This week on The Portal podcast we speak with the leading economist in contraband desires, beliefs & deceptions: Prof. @timurkuran https://t.co/G3ebBo38Xq
This episode is an experiment with a less well known mild mannered guest whose ideas jailbreak us out of the prison of Neoclassical economics and traditional political polling:
Spotify: https://t.co/6nSWPg6lXB
Castbox: https://t.co/gGIAUFRhih
Stitcher: https://t.co/3Lrgam56Ce
@Anno0770 Hellooo Germany.
@Madisonkanna @timurkuran Hope you get something out of it!
@nneal25 Thanks so much
I need to get there to keep this thing viable. But honestly I wanted to make sure people wanted the content first. So heartened by the response. 🙏
@DiannasRose @timurkuran That’s good.
I know of no truly working profession.
Medicine: broken. Law: broken. Research: broken. Banking: broken. Mgmt consulting: broken.
You’ll say “STEM, Tech and CS FTW losers!! Woot!!”
And I’ll whisper “Bro, thou dost protest way way too much.” Me thinks.
@Noahpinion I didn’t know you did impressions! Not really sure. Guessing Timothy Geithner explaining the great moderation of pre-2007? Marty Feldstein on laissez faire? Greenspan on self correcting markets? Brad Delong on NAFTA? Madoff on investing? Krugman on internet commerce? I give. Who?
@Noahpinion C’mon Noah. Enough.
@Noahpinion Okay Noah. Everything is fine. The professions are working. We are a rich country. Epstein committed suicide. Trump is a pendulum swing.
Whatever.
People tell me that news has now become commercial and that stories are simply constructed to sell papers/get clicks. This is just nonsense.
Nothing would get clicks, boost circulation or sell papers for a NYT/CNN/NPR like aggressively getting to the bottom of the Epstein story.
News is a lot like college admissions: it’s an insiders game. We know it’s rigged but can’t quite figure out how.
Why take that kid/run that story? Why do you consistently have zero interest in the most interesting kids/stories?
We’re just now learning *how* rigging works.
As I learned uncovering an immigration conspiracy to use visas to tamper with the free market for STEM labor by our national science complex, no news organization is trying to sell us the actual true stories that move news product organically. The stories we want are held back.
Take the current totally synthetic & transparent push for “authoritative sources”. Such sources would be the ones warning in 2005 that the “Great Moderation” was a lie & that a crash loomed. Someone like @nntaleb. Yet they mean the opposite. They mean cheerleaders like @nytimes.
@AriDavidPaul I think there are editors who spike great stories that get written but never run. I think other reporters get reassigned while not on a trail. I think narrative arcs get written at places like the NYT before the facts are known. And other stuff.
@AriDavidPaul Note: Should have been “hot on a trail” in the above.
You know, I’m not really a big UBI guy. But hear me out: if you lose the median worker’s ability to have dignity & a family in his/her twenties through the ability to exert upward wage pressure back on employers..you are courting Marxist revolution. And sorry, but I’m no Marxist.
In a nation, we have two claims on our economy:
A) A strong claim from our value-add as a contributor.
B) A weak claim as a mere soul.
That’s why I’m focused on A. But if we lose public trust in upward mobility through employment via wage pressure, we will lose these markets.
UBI is an experiment in B above. If you don’t like it, you‘re free to gamble that A will always work. But I’ve seen too many games played to rig markets against the median individual. We‘re losing the trust of ordinary folks that they can make it and I don’t want to lose markets.
MIT engages in sensitive work. Epstein was acting oddly like a 1-man boutique funding agency after the US stepped away from certain funding.
A) Was Jeffrey Epstein a market genius?
B) If not, what thing X was funding Jeffrey Epstein?
C) Did MIT have a direct relationship to X?
Epstein had an enormous secretive office in Midtown. I know because I dropped off trading materials there in 2004 before his Florida arrest brought him to light. If he was a self-made financial genius of supposedly infinite wealth there will be extensive records there. Anyone???
And the money isn’t enough. Bill Gates didn’t need the money. MIT didn’t need dirty money that badly either. Jeffrey Epstein’s public face was that of someone richer than 11 figures of net worth. And he just wasn’t that rich.
Q: For what was Jeffrey Epstein the front end?
It really feels to me like the pervert narrative is what brought an enormous covert structure into view and folks are treating it like the main story. But it seems to me that a large infrastructure was fronted by a badly drawn Gatsby character with no plausible source of wealth.
But by all means, do run yet another story on the “Lolita Express” to “Pedophile Island” as if that’s the only story. We are all terrified to discuss the obvious. Follow the money. Where did this Dalton math teacher get so much? Where is the trading record? Money leaves a trail.
Are we counting on MIT to research MIT? The NYT to report on the NYT? The intelligence community to investigate itself? Why is no one calling for a redo of the Church Committee?? This is not a genie that can go back into the bottle. No one can fake records of his trading prowess.
Why are we not focused on his office? Or am I also about to suddenly take my own life, have an unfortunate car accident, or meet a random lunatic for mentioning the obvious? If this is an intelligence operation why are we trusting intelligence to clean it up and investigate it?
@Secret_du_Roy As they say, “Only Judi Feingold can keep a secret.”
@kevinschawinski There are three that I can see:
A) Public facing scientists allow control of narrative.
B) Quirky and speculative contrarian high leverage science trading at a discount. E.g. Bob Trivers.
C) Inserting oneself into the academic top tier of MIT and Harvard for future use.
@kevinschawinski There was only one. There are folks and orgs like Kavli, Templeton, Simonyi, Thiel, Simons, Sloan, etc who are the closest. But no, so far as I know. There was only one.
@nikitakarachoi @kevinschawinski I think very highly of Bob’s scientific work.
We’re experimenting with two new forms of sponsorship on “The Portal”. In “Reverse Sponsorship” we promote a business that has no idea we love their product and are featuring them. We first picked https://t.co/abTeB26khN & their beautiful handblown mathematical art.
Thanks for being part of the experiment as we find our footing. Cliff is thrilled with all your new orders and is asking about opportunities.
Markets will get a lot more cuddly when they result in freedom of speech and decency toward each other. Let’s see what we can do. Onward.
The goal is to move towards the most imaginative sponsorships we can dream up, that are as uplifting as possible for openly & unapologetically being in business.
We love all our sponsors & look forward to migrating as many as possible to making us bullet proof from boycott mobs.
@JakeOrthwein That guy is nuts. Hope you liked it!
@tomarama @YouTube Lots of this going around. Not sure what to do about it.
@YukFlo @CliffordStoll He is really a ma and pa outfit and takes great care of his customers.
I can’t believe the number of followers I have who either believe Billionaires are intrinsically deserving or non-deserving simply by virtue of their wealth. We have areas where markets work beautifully & others where they are pathological. And no one knows what to do about that.
The desire to make the issue go away is what is fascinating. Deciding that all wealth is rent seeking theft or hard won contribution is clearly an attempt to avoid a central issue.
I feel strongly that the “All Wealth is Theft” & the “All Tax is theft” crowds need to get a room.
There’s a very powerful minority of folks for whom a leader is judged only by market indicators. That is, they will not listen to human rights or other related issues if volatility is low, the stock market is up & the yield curve expresses confidence in the future. I forget this.
There is one & only one East Asian American running for President. His family is from Taiwan.
Q: Is the insane media suppression of Andrew Yang tied to China?
I haven’t heard this hashed out and I can’t figure it out. It just goes on forever despite #YangMediaBlackout trending.
@willzeee @AndrewYang @RonPaul Exact same thing. Totally different candidate. The story is the media and the parties. Not the candidates.
@matloff @rif_fe13 Norm, this comes from a very general rule I have. When something doesn’t make sense in public life, ask whether it is somehow tied to China. We don’t talk about China relative to its importance. And Chinese markets have been destroying our American values. It‘s not Yang specific.
@Egypxican It totally can be. And it still likely is. But the odds are changing because of the level of discussion of the phenomena. The effect is continuing despite becoming ever more costly to media in credibility.
I am asking a very general question about business incentives.
Google “Sugar Baby University”, then realize you ended mandatory retirement, loaded every university with unwanted administrators no one needs so that tuition rose higher than medical inflation before you made student debt non dischargeable in bankruptcy in ‘05. #AdviceForBoomers
“Sugar Babies Beat Student Debt” -SeekingArrangment
Post 2005, you boomer academics literally sold your own millenial daughters into what may be grey area sex work. I know that’s not how you think about it. Ok! So just watch the video. Then let’s talk: https://t.co/pBbmL21naG
Q: What’s the difference between commercial sex workers and University Academicians who push *non-dischargable* student debt burdens?
A: The former are ethical business people honest about their business model & generally oppose indenturing.
- EndTheUniversityProstitutionComplex
I would like to invite anyone from @seekarrangement who would like to discuss “Sugar Baby University” and its approach to debt relief. I’m not angry at your company. You’re filling a market gap created by others with whom I‘m livid. Come to The Portal. Let’s talk #SugarDebt baby.
@KimberlyinLV @seekarrangement Followed. Follow me back and I will DM you! Thanks.
My main objections to discussing Greta, Abortion, Markets, Trans, etc... is that they represent huge conflations of different issues. Somehow, many friends seem to have a miraculously simple take on each of them. And, for whatever reason, I can't figure out how they get there.
Let me tell you the secret as a US PhD in Math: the answer is under-compensation.
We got it into our head decades ago that we were entitled to STEM-serfs. So we started a rumor that our own US students are so dumb & lazy that we need STEM visas to protect us from our own kids.
And with your reaction you have your answer: we have weirdly decided that STEM talent should work for our national wealth and security but should not unapologetically participate in the power, freedom and pleasure they provide for everyone else. They are STEM serfs to be used. 🙏
You‘re probably thinking: “Why should math & science folks need all those toys, money, security & freedom for their families? They should be happy to work for much less!”
Well the market says otherwise. The market says that analytic skills are fungible and we can’t accept that.
If Math & science are so critical, where are our young PhDs with country homes, sports cars, high ranking jobs, multiple offers from top employers at mouth watering levels inducing envy from lawyers, management consultants & investment bankers?
Now watch your reaction to that Q.
Thus began one of the craziest lies in US history: the market couldn’t be used in STEM! Somehow, despite the theory that compensation should rise to direct our efforts, we started lying about scientist shortages. Math was now so critical that STEM PhDs should be practically free!
If you are interested in how this nauseating game has been played for decades and just how conscious the market tampering is, you should find this rather interesting. It is the national scandal that cannot be fully reported by any major news source:
Sneak Peek: 1st Live Portal opens at 1578628800 UTC (34.146590, -118.130510)
The Portal is looking for a live audience of <200. Act quickly.
@ExplainEric
[Regular invitation to follow, once confirmation is received.] https://t.co/547BKaPDYv
Art Work by master Portal Artist @LondonTsai.
@augustineaniv @ExplainEric LIGO
@mtnflyer2 @ExplainEric You may be first.
@Pyro5139 @lilchiva @ExplainEric Ha.
@JackHawley @ExplainEric Really?
@lilchiva @Pyro5139 @ExplainEric Confirmed that I will be there. I’m waiting on confirmation that the show description has been changed. Date is solid.
@realdirkg @LondonTsai What state is best?
Also, the date and place are confirmed. It is the change in the description I’m waiting for now.
@mjaeckel @ExplainEric The Portal is still open.
@JohnJewellVO @ExplainEric Wield the power of the web and markets and all will be open...
I want everyone to remember who is deliberately destroying STEM R&D in the US. It’s America’s scientific employers conspiring within the national science complex to flood the market for almost 50Yrs by tampering with the wage mechanism to undermine scientist leverage. April 1990: https://t.co/9nWZKu7Pol
Here is what no one will say:
If you’re too weak to demand US-market level compensation for your family, you‘re too weak to tell an exploitative advisor to buzz off when you’re right. You‘re too weak to do US style science & challenge orthodoxy.
You‘re too weak to do the job.
The national science complex lives by tricking each generation into believing massive opportunity is just around the corner. But the market is always flooded.
And no one will seriously report the idea that the Science Complex is built around this lie, which killed our vitality.
@AlexKontorovich First of all, “such nonsense” is a pretty disappointing indication from a Math PhD asking for “proof.” That’s not how we do things in math. If you claim it is nonsense sir, what is your proof?
Second of all, with that out of our way. Let’s try again. Nice to meet you, Alex.
@AlexKontorovich Lastly: https://t.co/gHOCVAOgcl
@AlexKontorovich They are not thinking they are trying to destroy it. They are thinking that they are entitled to interfere with the wage mechanism. Which they have conspired and lied to do. Sir.
2020[edit]
I think the Left has reached a hard fork. Those that want to explore extreme wokeness, open borders, anti-whiteness, apologizing to homophobic/misogynist theocracies, worlds w/o men, reparations for slavery, cancel culture, etc need to branch off. And good luck: You’ll need it.
The rest of us for markets, democracy, liberal values, modest social safety nets, tolerance, content of character over color of skin, due process, free speech, etc. have to go back to defeating our loyal friends across the aisle & squashing newly emboldened neo-fascists. #Enough
Emboldening the Iranian Government like this is insane. I don’t care how traumatized you are by the US or how much you hate Trump or how much of Noam Chomsky you’ve read. It just doesn’t matter. Just get a hold of yourself. https://t.co/qIwZzYrIio
- HardFork #ForkOff
- GoForkYourself https://t.co/Pa6mfYYNU4
@MakesSnap https://t.co/HBZtmy7XqW
@FloMartinSec Kind of a work in progress. But ya know. We’ll see.
@erikbryn I don’t think we are seeing this the same Erik. I’m not just looking at the Tweet. If I was you would have a fair point. I’m looking at over 20k likes on it after over 5k retweets. That makes it trickier. Also I have looked through a number of these accounts. This isn’t isolated.
@erikbryn And despite her claims of technically being a republican, many of those applauding are clearly on the Left. Perhaps almost all? Maybe I should have made that clearer. But I thought it was obviously not a hawkish position to beg Iran’s mercy.
@erikbryn This is so interesting! I meet this all the time. Endless discussions about Rawlsian veils. Emma Lazarus. @Noahpinion? @fmanjoo? Etc. Everyone I know who has supported restricting immigration is called a xenophobe. How are we so far apart Erik?
Here:
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo You know my brother was a bio professor run out of his college over this? You know about the diversity oaths? I think you may just be mistaken as to how far this has gone.
Maybe you should come on my podcast and make this case when you are in LA? I so want you to be right!
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo Now I’m lost. We are clearly sideways here. The right was in on this too calling for a constitutional amendment to open our borders to decimate US wages (although that’s not how they sold it):
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo The game was traditionally played by saying “now I’m not for open borders, but...” and then calls were made for Amnesty, family reunification, paths to citizenship, expansion of allotments, no deportation, defunding enforcement, etc. which is to say gutting all of the barriers.
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo Yes. I’m not on the Right. That’s up to them. But there is an open borders right just as there is an open borders left. We aren’t connecting here Erik. Have you worked in Immigration? If not you have to experience it at a policy level. It’s wildly bizarre.
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo Many on the Left have been eager to dilute the right wing vote with immigrants. The right has been eager to dilute labor’s ability to bargain for wages. Open borders has been pursued by both openly and cryptically for different reasons.
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo And maybe I spent enough time in DC doing immigration listening to people say “We’re basically for open borders but of course we can’t just say that.”
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo You are aware that I wrote a paper on using Coase to ethically open borders? And another one that caught the National Academy and National Science foundation conspiring to use immigration to lower STEM wages?
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo We should hang out.
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo No. I refused to believe it until people told me what they were up to. You may want to read this rather carefully. I’m not making this up:
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo Let me have the NSF tell you in their own words why they want so many of your graduate students to be foreign. From section 5: https://t.co/zUatSf5v8l
@erikbryn @Noahpinion @fmanjoo Great!
It is time...past time...to have our CEOs howling like little wimps. We need something like a 50 year deep labor shortage with zero “Wage Relief”. So what if wages go up a bit? Let them go up more and more and MORE until they take an ENORMOUS chunk out of Capital’s share of GDP.
Both @IngrahamAngle & @realDonaldTrump aren’t getting it here. This isn’t about cheap labor. This isn’t about brain power. This is about US capitalism for labor.
Let me put it in simplistic terms: Americans are walking away from markets because our capitalists hate capitalism.
This message has been brought to you by the pro-market, pro-freedom, Pre-Clinton, Pre-Identity Politics, and Pre-Batshit crazy Patriotic American Left.
Oversimplifying only slightly: The proper job of politicians is to laugh at such corporate CEOs debasing themselves & to ask them about the ratio of their total compensation packages to the compensation packages they are offering: “What happened when you offered 7 or 8 figures??”
I’m going to overdo it so that the point is understandable to everyone:
When corporations whine about not being able to find smart people to hire, we all win as a society. The goal of making capitalism serve society is to get CEOs to perjure about non existent labor shortages.
What’s the answer to any wage gap for women?
What’s the answer to Millenial family formation?
What’s the answer to discrimination against Seniors and Youth?
What’s the answer to careers after child rearing?
What’s the answer to Minority unemployment?
A: TIGHT LABOR MARKETS.
[Note: people will ask about what the simplifications are about. They are about automation, singular talents that are quite rare, infant industries, temporary shortages, path dependencies, endowment variation, etc., etc.]
@erikbryn An important discussion. If we are to explore it, it deserves something more than a sub thread.
@ZykB4e1 @StopS386 @qrlos @IngrahamAngle @realDonaldTrump Yes. It isn’t about a unit of imported labor willing to work more cheaply by undercutting. It’s about many units being used to push out the labor supply curve to lower the wage paid to all.
A correct initial point. Wrong (business school friendly type) frame.
Given not Zero sum: do you think more or less innovation would happen if labor access rights were securitized & traded as in Coasian theory or if they were confiscated and used as seigniorage as they are now?
Additionally, how many of the H1Bs are tethered to “sponsoring employers” or masters? What happens when wage signals are distorted by servitude? How many niche businesses founded by immigrants would have been founded by natives? Why is this often not estimated or set to zero??
Next point: do you think that it is more or less efficient to pretend STEM workers are ‘graduate students’ being paid with immigration lures and not allowed to unionize or is it better to use markets?
Well, I’ve thought about this. Even published.
Overarching point: our entire immigration discussion is framed & structured to come to conclusions favored by employers. It excludes rights issues, efficiency issues, tampering, dilution, externalities. You are interpreting my frame rejection as my not having thought about this.
I don't know how many immigrants we'll need. What I do know is coward CEOs want to tame the famously disagreeable & independent US worker and make her/him more pliant. And by threatening that worker with a steady supply of 'the best and the brightest' he or she becomes docile.
No. We need to stop having our big hearts used against our own economic interests. True refugees once rescued make FANTASTIC citizens. A tiny number of Geniuses give us an edge & families often need to be together.
What's evil is the campaign to destroy worker bargaining power.
Since we're drowning in oceans of STEM talent in a market economy where long term labor shortages are impossible, we easily see who those cowards are. They're STEM employers insisting on a French kiss from our government & threatening to take the ball abroad if they don't get it.
Well, maybe they should go. I hear China is hiring! Also maybe Russia. Posssibly Saudi & Iran too.
So go run to your new masters STEM employers. Maybe you weren't cut out to make it in the dynamic freedom loving US economy.
Don't let the door hit you on the way out though.,,
It’s hard to imagine a more impressive line up of true heavy hitters. This is the best of what we humans are capable of at our peak.
If you want to be early on a discovery that shows markets are not efficient, here‘s your proof. Get in on the ground floor. These guests are tops.
The Portal Podcast just passed 4000 reviews! We have had amazing guests!
Yet, if you want to see an off-beat contender for the world’s smartest guest list, it may be a podcast with only 6 reviews!!?! @grahamfarmelo is pushing the envelope pretty darn hard. Give him some love! https://t.co/nrdwh52Qwv
@Mkouri @grahamfarmelo I don’t want to approach it that way. I would say that Edward Witten and Michael Atiyah are the most impressive minds on this list. Like just shockingly impressive.
@grahamfarmelo @Mkouri Well, you can’t do better than Graham for reccomendations!
Graham, you are doing wonders for bringing the best ‘taste’ in mathematics and physics to elevate us all.
@grahamfarmelo Graham, you are so important. Dirac somehow had no great biography. How could that be?!? Come to my podcast in LA anytime to boost yours. The world needs you and your efforts.
Best guests of any podcast. Thank you.
The reason we have sky high STEM immigration is wage tampering. The @NSF & @theNASEM undermined our own model of scientific independence, academic freedom & irreverent science that was the envy of the word by flooding US markets with pliable STEM labor. And over what? Just wages.
The *competent* ECONOMIC study was protected and buried by never releasing it and removing the date and author from it. The author is still attached to NSF. To be clear: our @NSF is faking incompetence. The mainstream media is faking disinterest. Why? To not reveal the reasoning.
The study is economically competent using both supply & demand, and then found new US graduates would have to be paid 6 figures shortly. They termed this the “pessimistic scenario”, and then (and I‘m not making this up) faked an *incompetent* DEMOGRAPHIC study by removing demand!
I don’t exist. Breitbart doesn’t exist. The secret study doesn’t have an author, a date or publication. All restrictionists are automatically racists. Blah blah..
But then why not call a liar @nsf? Why invite me to the National Academy 4 separate times to present this @theNASEM?
Now who is willing to get the @NSF on the record denial? Only the right leaning @BreitbartNews here! And US Instutional media treats anything that appears there as automatically beneath discussion. This is the logic of the Gated Institutional Narrative:
Five days ago I released a podcast. It has been listened to by over 100,000 people. If you search twitter you will see that it generates an enormous amount of interest except from two groups: the news & professors. They are not disinterested, but anti-interested. Except for Greg.
What is anti-interesting? Well Jeffery Epstein’s wealth source is anti-interesting to media. Bernie in 2016 was anti-interesting to @nytimes. Income inequality was anti-interesting to economists until very recently. The Las Vegas shooter was anti-interesting. Building Seven too. https://t.co/IQwSV8rBqJ
Anti-interesting, adj. 1) A subject is said to be anti-interesting if it is absolutely fascinating to the point where there is a strong market for it’s investigation but it threatens an institution capable of stifling discussion inside the Gated Institutional Narrative (GIN).
To @MSNBC, @AndrewYang is pathologically anti-interesting. Flight 800 is pretty anti-interesting as was the Boskin Commission’s attempt to transfer 1 Trillion Dollars by hacking the CPI. The H1-B visa history is anti-interesting. As are broken laboratory mice with long telomeres. https://t.co/Mv9HgHv2ex
But I find these things fascinating. As do we all. Do stay tuned to The Portal.
More to come. Thanks @greggutfeld!
@Tmillerpoetry The Portal loves @Tmillerpoetry!!
If you want to see this theory of Idea Suppression in action, retweet the first tweet in the thread with hashtag #SlipTheDISC. Hey, who knows...We might be able to change the game.
@piney_the Actually, that’s not full disclosure. Full disclosure is you saying who you are & what exactly you are a professor of to be hurling such accusations. But I get the appeal of fighting from a position of advantage, and I’m sure you think holonomy is beyond me. It just makes me sad.
@piney_the Be well anonymous Professor. I don’t find this amusing.
@itcamefromthed @nytimes I don’t have a theory. I’m not an engineer. I don’t know demolitions.
I just don’t get it. And when I ask experts, the conversation often gets weird. I don’t have a 9/11 conspiracy theory. I do note that Building 7 produces weird conversations and avoidance. I got nothing else.
@jason_pontin @BretWeinstein Quite. I was in error.
@Aceinmysleeve1 Hmm. I’m not a biologist, but here is what I might think:
A) Adaptive Landscape B) with a mouse having a C) healing wound as well as a D) growing Tumor with the letters E) TTAGGG around the base
Also H1-b for the “Best and Brightest”...um...this is so awkward...those visas tethered foreign workers to employer-sponsors so they couldn’t respond to wage signals. Yep. But we called bosses “Technologists” to confuse folks. Beastly but clever, right? Object? You’re xenophobic!
Also, all your dumb US kids you were told couldn’t do STEM? That was a lie.
And those terrible Thiel fellowships paying kids to drop out? That was partially about saving folks from student debt that couldn’t be discharged in bankruptcy. I know. You were told it was evil. 🤷♀️
Now would be an excellent time to ask how safe it is to underpay top scientists & engineers relative to say Investment Bankers, VCs or mgmt consultants.
Because you‘ve been habituated to bargain basement pricing for skills valued by our military rivals.
Close eyes. Open wallet.
It’s going to take a while to wake up to what the STEM workforce & US research university network mutated into being. Think of how you used to see Bear Stearns or AIG, but before 2007. That’s where we are now.
Nothing is how it appears. Let’s let events unfold a bit more though.
@noafasina Not the students! It’s a US problem.
@FischerKing64 We can’t have markets determine wages. Uh...that came out wrong....we can’t have poaching!
The digital layer allows us to measure the market demand for many genuinely fascinating topics in which the legacy journalism layer pretends to take zero interest.
Odd. Guaranteed markets on real topics. Zero interest. Ownership of media by interests who do not need profit.
The digital layer allows us to to see reporters following people they never acknowledge even exist.
Who really cares? Why does it matter? Because institutions agree never to treat as real that which remains confined to the digital layer alone. Hence the reason we’ve stagnated.
I’d like to know where the “last known whereabouts of Ghislaine Maxwell” and “location of Epstein trading records from Villard House” and “ties to intelligence” investigations are stalled out. Even where these stories ran into brick walls would be fascinating. Where is the DISC?
A completely crazy thread on Corona virus.
What if instead of the public health emphasis on calming everyone, someone instead leveled with us? Actually told us the truth.
“It is possible, that a lot of us may be about to die. Let’s not panic however as death is always with us.”
“1st, it would be a good time to recognize that our older & more vulnerable citizens could benefit from younger stronger people willing to take on burden & risk, making sure they are getting support if they are alone. 2nd, let’s take time to make some preparation for the worst.”
“Americans have had unprecedented good luck for the last 75 years and we are going to have to realize, as we did on 9/11 and with the fall of Lehmann Bros., that this period may be anomalous. Thus we need to do what previous generations did: Toughen up and prepare for loss.”
I mean this is pretty bad. It may be no worse than pretty bad, but why not call for toughness? Are we that weak? Are our just-in-time supply lines & inventories that thin? If so, let’s fix that fast! Can’t we be the people who founded and fought for our nations? Or is that over?
I would react much better to honest talk than to this confusing mealy mouthed lecturing about how I need to be smart and not touch my face but continue to go about my normal life while watching the markets though not taking them seriously yet constantly washing my hands. You too?
“But while we don’t know how bad this may be, let us remember that life is an adventure without guarantees. If you see people panicking, share your strength with them. We need to get back to being a stronger nation with an ability to take and bear real risk together. Thank you.”
So in summary: tell me how bad we think this is. How can you lead if what you say makes no sense because it starts backwards from: “Everything is fine but you need to take personal responsibility in an impractical way because the global authorities lost control of this one.”
🙏
Try asking yourself who you would have wanted leading the US in the grips of a potential combination epidemic and market crash. Write down the top 5 candidates who entered this year in rank order from any party.
You don’t have to share it, but your list may surprise even you.
As markets tank & lives are lost, tell me about any upside you‘re experiencing?
A) Closer to loved ones? B) Changing priorities? C) Planning for future? D) Relief from pointless meetings? E) Marriage proposals? F) Better conversations? G) Introspection? H) Life-affirmation? Etc.
After exporting 16 in '83, the US allowed China to flood +35,000 'graduate students' into US universities over 20 yrs. It's almost inconceivable, yet that's why Universities rail against our own people; this is a generation of University leaders who flooded their own labor mkts. https://t.co/72NLjVKlbi
The other day I ran a poll. Here's what actually happened and how China came to integrate its way into the mission-critical United States R&D sector. They provided the cheap labor that had been deliberately mislabeled as 'Study' so as to avoid paying market wage to US scientists. https://t.co/BLmnk3FTv3
This was because we didn't support US science and research when we had the chance and we didn't close down our labs. Instead we came up with a multi-decade lie about "students are not workers" and "Science knows no borders" in a big beautiful world where "borders are artificial".
So why was I on this since the 1980s?
Very simply: This wasn't study abroad. This was not a US failure in STEM education. This wasn't b/c science is 'international'.
This was a GIANT security hole on a scale no one could discuss because ALL leading US universities were gorging.
And by the way...one last thing: I'm not blaming China.
Why? Because if any nation were actually self-destructive enough to hand me the keys to their most critical sector the way the US did since the early 1980s...well I would have done *exactly* what China did.
Who wouldn't?
So when you want to know how we lost our edge, now you know why we are so interdependent on an enormous foreign powerhouse whose leverage over our 'elite' knows no bounds as we cannot decouple. This has nothing to do with race or Xenophobia. Its about the loyalty of our 'Elite'.
So we invited another nation with an incompatible form of government from our own, to look at EVERYTHING we had that gave us a technical advantage should we have to compete with a newly muscular China. And I mean everything. This is why our Elite protect all Chinese connections.
And for those that didn’t see it, here is that Twitter Poll mentioned in the thread:
This is hard to keep saying: almost everything we think about STEM is wrong.
A) We the US are GREAT at science.
B) Workers are mislabeled as students/trainees.
C) We underfund research.
D) China sends workers valued by Unis as they not as free or expensive as our own people.
The US STEM complex is induced to murder careers of our own people because we are not trained to be obedient workers. We use freedom & irreverence based education. Our edge is our middle finger and US STEM folks rightly demand market level US salaries to power our market economy.
Think of it as “Intellectual Munchausen By Proxy” where the leadership of STEM at @NSF and @theNASciences have historically made up stories about how their own children (US STEM) are too sickly/greedy/unruly to do research. But our pliant temp visa holders are obedient wiz-kids.
So here’s our choice.
Either:
A) Stop whining and pay US STEM costs for some of the best and most irreverent mavericks in the world.
B) Shut down the programs that can’t compete.
C) Prepare to have PRC work its way into every corner of US R&D by supplying our workforce.
🙏
A killer virus likely escaped from a Wuhan BSL-4 lab or wet market and you want me to apologize to the Chinese Communist Party that once massacred students w/ a Statue of Liberty replica for referring to China w/ the female 3rd person singular possessive pronoun?
Love this!!!!!
I think I speak for every sane person on planet earth tonight sheltering at home, worried about how they‘re going to feed their family and worried about their loved ones’ health & safety when I say this with all due respect:
YOU ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF YOUR DAMN MIND on SocJus.
@PeterMcCormack Noticed your quote ended early before the conjunction. Nice try.
@AmeliaHammy @PeterMcCormack I was wondering the same...
Cards on the table: none of this makes sense to me.
Pence, Baron and Jared are on this? We have Omarosa figuring out just what this mRNA is, with Susan at YouTube making sure no one blames China? Are we endangering our doctors & nurses sufficiently by holding back enough PPE?
We have insufficient tests so we can’t track, and we send people to go home and endanger their families? China has all our critical manufacturing? Biden is senile? Bernie is 80?
In the immortal words of Casey Stengel:
“Can’t ANYBODY here play this game??”
Have our senators made enough money shorting the market from security briefings? Does Nancy have enough premium chocolate ice cream and have we built the enclosed golf courses Trump will require?
Let’s make sure our journalists don’t ask any hard questions. Seemingly ever.
I’m sorry. The bullshit. The pseudo facts. The septuagenarian and octogenarian gerontocracy. The absence of smart people or independent journalists. The inability to figure out anything that involves China.
It’s like an infinite piece of life & death immersive theater. #HuisClos
The idea of being a celebrity to a smaller group in the blind spot of the market is broader than this. Stay at home dads and community organizers or volunteers come to mind. But the large number of very capable females who elect to focus on Kin Work is an enormous pivotal sector.
The Rolling Stones might also need a younger singer & rhythm guitarist.
It helps to remember that “The Law” and “The Market” are abstractions. They shine when there are “numerous buyers & sellers” of a “homogeneous product”.
How well that fits here is an interesting question...
Everyone focused on trying to get me and @EpsilonTheory to talk to each other on Epstein, collapse, markets and other topics, can now lay off. It has just happened.
[Good call on your part planet 🌍 btw. Much as I hate to admit it...]
This is the corner of Beverly and Fairfax if I’m not mistaken. Where @billmaher shoots @RealTimers. Where the famous Los Angeles Farmers Market is.
The world is ready to go up in flames. The trick is how to revolt locally without the whole planet going sideways. Can it be done?
Some will say that this is impossible. Big crowds turn ugly they‘ll say.
And I will say: study MLK. Study Gregory. Study Mother Jones. And pay attention to @KillerMike. You have to be mad to want to burn it all down. But madder still to dare to build again amidst this chaos.
🙏
So I’m divided. I want enormous threatening protests to be over everything that has gone seriously wrong: PPE, police brutality, Chinese meddling, campaign financing and generalized corruption. But I‘m repulsed by looting & the meaningless loss of safety due to arson & vandalism.
Now, I don’t know. Is there any way to reach @realDonaldTrump 74 or the DNC. Are @senatemajldr 78 or @SpeakerPelosi 80 really going to change their minds? @JoeBiden 77? Is it worth it to them to start all over now? Maybe. But they are all sufficiently old it doesn’t seem likely.
So how do I feel about looting & arson? Well, in a better 🌍 I‘d opt for enormous menacing protests that were sufficient to wake those in power to cut their infinite crap. But in my dreams, they‘d stop short of damage & violence. What can I say, Dick Gregory was a hero to me.
We want to communicate with our leaders. But many of us are not taken seriously. We aren’t big political donors. We don’t have fancy titles. We are just people who aren’t in on the kleptocracy. That is, the gentile white shoe looting that happens daily in the corridors of power.
Here is the thing that I have a hard time communicating:
Revolts are essential, if for no other reason than to prevent those more significant revolutions which we cannot afford. The power of the governed must be felt by the instutions and their leaders. And they don’t feel. Yet.
- genteel! Obviously. Jeez. What an auto-correct way to guess wrong. Gentle, Gentile, Genteel, Genital. I’ve been here several times before...
@sean96786949 Ha! You’ll notice I corrected to *genteel almost instantly.
@sean96786949 Really? https://t.co/oUr8jdfGX4
What an incredible claim! Imagine: all you have to do is find out that someone is any anyway opposed to unrestricted high-skill immigration to know they are not only a villain but a pure one.
Life is so much easier when you are fully coked-up on ideology in service to employers.
@ZachWeiner Wait. Let me guess!
A) Markets are the best for allocating talent efficiently!
B) STEM fields need the best and the brightest!
C) There are knock on effects to genius where we all benefit from new industries, ideas and innovative companies!
D) Home countries get remittances!
@ZachWeiner E) Barriers create inefficiencies!
F) Science and Technology are global!
G) Some blue ribbon study calculates a huge empirical benefit!
H) if you block talent, companies wither or move to overseas!
I) We can best reform human rights in other countries through connection!
@ZachWeiner J) No person is illegal!
K) Americans are bad at hard things but Asians are great at them and want to come here!
L) A huge number of companies were started by immigrants!
M) Ditto for Nobel Laureates.
N) My mother/spouse/employer was an immigrant and she’s great!
@ZachWeiner O) Immigrants are huge philanthropists!
P) Immigrants pay an enormous amount in taxes.
Q) Immigrants open their home markets!
R) This is stolen land anyway. It’s not yours to gate!
S) Restricting movement of people is pointless!
T) Only bigots question immigration!
@ZachWeiner U) Immigrants revitalize our nation!
V) Have you read the poem at the Statue of Liberty? That’s my America!
W) Wait. You married an immigrant and wrote letters supporting immigrants! Ha!
X, Y, Z) Detaining, deporting and questioning immigrants is not a good look!
@ZachWeiner Zach: If you have new arguments I’m interested.
Did not think highly of your “pure villainy” claim. It was pretty offensive to see in someone making an outlandish claim.
@ZachWeiner @bryan_caplan The issue isn’t about bleeding heart liberals. It’s about employers who use bleeding heart liberal academics & their never ending guilt to transfer wealth into their own corporate pockets while mumbling about how open their minds and hearts are. But I assume you know the game...
@ZachWeiner @bryan_caplan If you have new arguments, I’m game. Find me in my DMs. But I am bored by the arguments I’ve heard since R Reagan and GHW Bush as they are very weak.
And Thanks for saying what you did above just now. Happy to start fresh. Nice to meet you.
@besttrousers @californiaweed @ZachWeiner Oh?
@besttrousers @californiaweed @ZachWeiner 1/ Nope. It’s you who don’t get the argument. You‘re confusing two issues that I’m focused on just to begin with.
Let’s try it w/o immigrants. Let’s say an economist gets an evil idea: “Kidneys are inefficiently distributed. Some have two working organs while others have none.”
@besttrousers @californiaweed @ZachWeiner 2/ Then we get the idea that the government will distribute the kidneys according to a market scheme. Efficiency carries the day!
What went wrong? Well it has to do with the economics of constraints vs maximands. You aren’t supposed to treat someone’s rights as a market barrier.
@besttrousers @californiaweed @ZachWeiner 3/ I treat workers as having rights that function as constraints on what government should be allowed to do.
In economics you can either put a negative effect into the objective function or into the constraints. And those two are NOT the same. It’s rights vs Cost/Benefits.
@besttrousers @californiaweed @ZachWeiner End/ This partial vs general equilibrium is a dodge. You aren’t dealing w/ the Coasian critique: you are claiming my rights as an inefficiency so you can take them without paying for them. Which is the unethical economist game. Lay Folks don’t know how to defend themselves. I do.
@besttrousers @ZachWeiner @californiaweed “Cups and Balls”? Trick??
That’s adorable. Let me know when you finally understand the argument:
@besttrousers @ZachWeiner @californiaweed Until then...
@besttrousers @ZachWeiner @californiaweed Huh. Whatever. Be well.
You can either respond to these tweets below in thread, or send privately to [email protected] where my producer Colin will sort through the emails and may ask you to record your question on audio/video if you feel comfortable with that.
Thanks all!
🙏
Planet Portal: I'm getting ready to record an experimental new type of episode, where I answer questions from listeners along a topic or line of thought. I'm about to go into the studio, please send me your questions about the following prompt:
Media, Markets and human Malware.
This is not at all how labor markets work. But it‘s very emotional.
Notice that if I replace the word “Lab” with the word “Plantation”, “immigrant” with “African guest worker” and “science” with “cotton” you’d be drooling for that creepy antebellum south if you think like this.
Also, notice the number of black faces in this photo in proportion to the number of black citizens in the American population. This photo is telling you many things. “Listen” to the photo and notice that the accompanying words don’t really tell you what is actually going on.
@PDugov No. It implies you aren’t being shown a labor market. If I showed a picture of a flat boring scrubby desert vs a picture of the glorious pyramids of Giza and then I said “Egypt with and without international workers”, it’s not a labor market argument. It’s emotional manipulation.
@varchar You are missing my intended point. The point is that they are using pictures in an emotional way to represent labor market arguments and rights issues. The point is that they are trying to bypass your brain. But they are getting a general benefit by depressing *all* wages.
@PeachesJenkins4 No shit.
@cryptoknyte I was being intentionally ridiculous. As I find this labor market argument by emotional pictures to be ridiculous.
Now many of you know I talk about there being a GIN or Gated Institutional Narrative which is basically a fictionalized national story. Harpers is part of that system along with the Atlantic, The Times, etc. What must not happen is that these same players be allowed to lead now.
Seeing my own brother’s family hunted & the Campus police force stood down was a preview of CHAZ & the totally foreseeable deaths there under the same crazed Governor who let them happen. Dead young people’s lives don’t matter to the Left, “Black Lives Matter” notwithstanding.
What I learned during the Evergreen State meltdown was that there was no neutral or center-Left institution to champion even basic physical safety. NPR wasn’t interested. Nor CNN. Not the NYT newsroom. The Democrats didn’t see it even as an opportunity to champion our old values.
Am I irritated that I wasn’t asked to sign? I’d say “Mildly irked at most. But in no way surprised.”
- Much* more important however is when @BretWeinstein & @HeatherEHeying are left off. And then I *am* surprised. That‘s telling because it’s still covering up the GIN’s crime.
This problem we have is largely a creation of @Harpers, @TheAtlantic, @Harvard, @nytimes, @DNC, @NPR, @GovInslee, @Princeton, @Yale, @NewYorker, @washingtonpost, @vox etc who failed to ring the alarm and even sufficiently support their own people like @bariweiss or @NAChristakis.
Now Harpers is playing its role. And a lot of instutional cowards will jump on the band wagon if this “New Recognition” of the lefty extremism problem is seen to test well with readers.
And thus it’s time to hold their feet to the fire. We need brave leaders, not test marketers.
Why is this? Because they aren’t fit to lead until there‘s a reckoning with their decisions to consciously facilitate our slide into hell. They consciously refused to see this problem under life & death situations. They have actual blood on their hands. So there’s a missing step.
So that’s it. We can’t allow our institutions to become leads on the solution *before* a period of repudiation of previous cowardice for reasons of *safety*.
To sum up: we got here by glorified marketers being in the leadership chairs at our institions. And we need them ousted.
As to the signatories, I have mixed feelings. Some are brave heroes. Others have been villains who are hopefully turning over a new leaf. The rest are on that spectrum. But I don’t have a lot of strong feelings about this. Long term readers know that my focus is *institutional*.
And why is this important? Because without a reckoning, our institutions will continue to stir our national pot. They‘ll continue to do A/B test marketing and I do not want the US to be led by *marketers• into freefall even while I welcome them as guests way late to a party.
So why am I not surprised I wasn’t asked? Because I‘m a person who is pushing for institutional overhaul. My question would have been: “Why do you get to lead discussion if you weren’t clearly ringing alarms all this time? You aren’t the leaders. Do you own this as your failure?”
Just ask yourself who has been fighting this visibly w/ courage that is conspicuously left off the letter and why. Those people should be leading and not watching. And their omission means the problem of our commentariat as cowardly institutional marketing guild is continuing. 🙏
@LiebermanJeremy I am unsure what I can ask of tech companies. But I generally share the sentiment.
@chadloder Organized labor is like a distant memory.
@clairlemon @tylercowen Agreed. Thanks CL!
@RubinReport I am not sure you have my position accurately.
This is trope to me: “We conservatives saw all the problems back in the 1920s through the ‘80s.”
Conservatives were always telling different lies (e.g. trickle down, refer madness, free markets, etc.) and causing different problems. Also, opposing EVERYTHING Left doesn’t count.
Yes, we wouldn’t have all the same problems we do now if we had listened exclusively to conservatives.
No one side of the spectrums has a monopoly on either truth or stupidity.
So let’s not get carried away.
@capsfan082892 Help yourself. You are welcome to them.
Oh. The ‘free’ part.
More generally the fundamentalist part: The “markets always know what’s best part”. The limited liability part. The self-regulating part. The unincorporated externality parts. The “given wants” part. The unique equilibrium part. The index number part.
The “market defects are small” part. The rational agent part. The shareholder value part. The “law & economics” part. The “hyperbolic discounting” part. The entire “Macroeconomics” part. The fiduciary duty cures principal/agent problems part. The Ordinal/cardinal part.
Etc. Etc.
@hotepsquake @Brian_Mulhall People get confused by a person who values markets but doesn’t buy into full free market fundamentalism.
Which is odd.
@gingernchronic @hotepsquake @Brian_Mulhall Well, I’m for limited versions of what the free market absolutists are for. They are right that markets are wonderful and that much regulation is hamfisted & subject to capture.
And then, to make that point, they go insane and claim markets are much more perfect than they are.
@gingernchronic @hotepsquake @Brian_Mulhall Most texts that sell economics 101 ideology to students have a “to be sure” section where they shunt the real issues with the theory. Consider taking that section as much more important than the author emphasizes it to be.
I’ll say it this way. My “lived experience” is different in 3 ways:
A) My learning differences (I.e. disabilities) caused my intelligence, creativity & output to be invisible to essentially every educator I encountered. My own IQ is lower than many imagine due to “processing”.
I have also seen what @stephstem went through as a colleague of his.
So, I have more faith than most that this is a HUGE arbitrage: IQ is not intelligence and I’ve discovered an enormous discrepancy in the market. I can’t seem to swing a cat without hitting a Black genius.
No. I have the best audience in podcasting and even here I believe my audience is just wrong. Eric Lewis is almost incomprehensible to me and I am sure it is because, as the surprisingly low IQ Richard Feynman (125?) once memorably said, his “Machines come from too far away.”
B) We know far more about proven Black analytic abilities and contributions than we do about IQ as a predictor of intelligence.
C) I seem to live in the thick far right tail of Black Genius. Yet my Portal episode with @elewrockjazz was one of my least popular. So: Did I goof?
Ask @ParkerMolloy or @dandrezner and they’ll tell you I’m an idiot or a dullard/liar respectively...despite a Harvard PhD in math. Doesn’t matter! I’m a Dunnig-Kruger poster child to these people. Or I’m a libertarian when I‘m anti-libertarian. Or Alt Right when progressive. Etc.
Lastly, every day I have an experience that parallels Black American lives. I’m neurodivergent & a disagreeable contrarian. So I have an army of people telling me from the moment I get up until I go to sleep that I’m various things I‘m absolutely not with no way to correct them.
This is contrarian investing 101: you only profit when everybody is confused & thinks you’re an idiot! Well I’m betting that everyone who thinks IQ is intelligence and that Black Americans can’t excel at STEM is wrong. If you follow me you know I think the 🌍 is generally nuts.
So forgive me. I don’t trust the IQ testing. Call it the St. Lucia effect: tiny St Lucia has one of the lowest IQ scoring populations on 🌎 and also one of the Highest Noble Laureates per capita counts. The great thing about this planet is how much arbitrage opportunity exists.🙏
What are the odds that every single teacher you have is terrible? Very low if you‘re Neurotypical. But very high if you‘re Neurodivergent. Well, think of Black Americans as an ENORMOUS neurodivergent invisible community. They aren’t black: they‘re clear & you look right through.
This is what I assume it is like to be Black in a White dominated world: you are lied to about who you are almost every second of every day. You can’t afford to notice it; it’s like not noticing air *because* it is everywhere around you and I see Black analytic genius everywhere.
And I just want to say thank you to the professional commentariat, the experts, the journalists, the economists, the professors, the politicians & SJWs who make a point of getting almost everything wrong every-single-day. You created the opportunity of a lifetime.
I thank you.🙏
- Nobel Laureates.
I know: “Your spelling, grammar and incomprehensiblity show that you aren’t the mind you think yourself to be Einstein. You’re embarrassing yourself. Etc.”
Heh heh. I’ll just show my self out and delete my account now...how embarrassing! ;-)
@WMSDetroit I told you I was disagreeable. Feel free to disagree! But I am a decent listener and observer on my better days and that is a component of what I see.
@TylerMGoldstein I know! What is this “processing” bullshit?!
@dandrezner @ParkerMolloy Oh no. It’s not personal. It’s emblematic.
Many of us have this experience with those who sit in your chairs. To your credit, you were clear & civil. You were also demonstrably wrong, insufferable & dismissive.
You can exit the trade whenever you like. Or feel free to stay in.
Most everyone I know who loves California but is also in a position to leave it, is considering leaving.
And I’m seeing weird stuff. Liberals talking about setting up Blue enclaves in Red states. The sense is Blue Governments have lost the will to stand up for adult realities...
I see many people not understanding the above tweet.
Many of us hate Marxism/Maoism/HardLeft and centrist kleptocrats as much or more than the red voters. We like markets, freedom, borders and law enforcement like you.
But that seems impossible to grasp. Oh well. One can try...
@Schismocracy Oh. Because maybe those folks are a bit more for abortion rights and progressive taxation for example. Maybe they want weed legalized.
But they don’t hate churches and look at the hard left who want to abolish the police, reparations & open borders as aliens from outer space
@Schismocracy Imagine that there is a left that agrees with most of what the sane right agree with. It’s not 100%. But they want the lunatic positions out of the left and right.
Science & Markets through their effects have lifted more people out of poverty than any other areas of human ingenuity.
You can’t be an anti-market or anti-scientific progressive. I know you may have been told that progressives can be that. But the word actually means something.
The hard part of being a progressive is the design of mechanism & incentives: how do we work with true human nature to get beautiful outcomes for society that can actually be reached.
Progressives aren’t utopian, because Utopian dreams always lead us backwards. Be antiutopian.🙏
Any easy way to tell a false progressive is whether that person denies the main engines of progress: markets, STEM, law, high quality institutions.
You don’t get to fly direct to equality, fairness & justice by wishing yourself there & barking orders to comply backed by threats.
There’s nothing progressive about “my truth” if your truth contradicts reality to make you feel better. The soul who came up with Oral Rehydration Therapy was a progressive who saved the lives of countless poor people. A person demanding we deny biology is just a power tripper.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is an idealist & an activist for change. His point is profound.
Like a physician who knows doctors have to be focused on drug interactions when prescribing medicine, he’s now warning the market about “activism interactions”: https://t.co/VZGdUQWKsp
I find crypto and distributed computing both inspiring & frightening. There is plenty to do in this new space to create structures that can advance the lives of all.
I wholeheartedly endorse the move towards meaningful idealistic technology leadership being seen here. Go Brian.
Should a tech company side with militant activists fighting for the rights of the marginalized if they are also guilty of marginalizing others?
Such distracting “problems without solution” can sap the will & energy for a company that actually *can* solve problems in its field.
H1-b visas come out of a secret 1986 economics study by the Policy, Reaearch & Analysis division of @NSF through the GUIRR division of @theNASciences in a scheme to tamper with the wage mechanism so that scientists would slave for a market in which they wouldn’t participate. 🙏
-Eric Weinstein, PhD (Math)
It’s difficult to explain to practical folks or Market and/or Democracy fundamentalists, that what you build into the rules will not necessarily remotely produce what you thought you‘d get. All coders/biologists, unlike politicians/voters, know this:
Moral: We appear to be caught in loops of our own creation. If so, conventional moves will continue to produce this cycling around the drain. It is time to consider more exotic moves to pull ourselves out.
We can no longer afford to fill the world w/ sheep, NPCs & followers. 🙏
Neglecting political economy, capture of media/institutions, market failure, inequality, danger of critical theory, structural inequality, gerontocracy, academic freedom, scientific independence, etc as if these are negligible, dooms us to chase each other around an “ant mill”.
@FroggyRuminates As did Bernie. Can you admit that? And can we admit that this is less true now as we have digested them and their differences for 4 years....
Octonions are to Mathematics as Monotreme’s are to Mammals, Giffen Goods are to Markets, and Locrian mode is to music.
So @its_adamneely decided to invite @Paulmdavids & others to create sweet Locrian music. It sounds *insane*...but it works as surf rock: https://t.co/rPnYX9Mfp2
- monotremes
Why is there no edit function...?
@breh_whyp @its_adamneely @Paulmdavids Like amazing no?!?
@samuraiguit @its_adamneely @Paulmdavids That was genius. You used the uncertainty of a Locrian world to pair with the other uncertainty of post-Dick Dale (rag Bhairav?) surf rock to which we were already conditioned. Or something. But it killed in a post major/minor world.
@PsychedelicMat1 @its_adamneely @Paulmdavids Yeah. I think Dick Dale mostly got us over the flat 2nd nicely. It’s the Locrian fifth that just doesn’t wanna play nice because of that nearly 3/2 ratio with the fundamental.
Aisle one. U.S. Supermarket.
I can briefly forget how much I love U.S. diversity.
Let’s not ruin it by making it into a trademarked compulsory political ideology.
Make Diversity Meaningful Again!
@skubeluc4 ;-)
@garrettinvests There. https://t.co/jxjFTjiL3t
@JohnLay44605636 Amen.
@DhananjayEst83 I don’t know why drumsticks aren’t more of a thing here.
@shubhreetlalli @garrettinvests Utterly Butterly.
@jeffhext I love this.
I still just marvel at how complete & beautiful the multi-decade lies are.
It would never occur to me that you could shout about the danger & madness of these things from an account and podcast of this size in front of this many journalists and the lies just remain. Perfection.
And despite decades of work, no mainstream news desk can cover and stay on this bizarre story. All the books, peer reviewed papers and conferences on this issue later...and the big enormous lie continues.
There is no such thing as a long term labor shortage in a market economy.
We have been faking a continuous unrelenting labor shortage of Scientists and Engineers since Sputnik. We replaced our own genius based research system with a cheap labor system. We give everything away to the CCP so we don’t have to pay market price to scientific families.
2021[edit]
“A break from the adventure.”
Get high with ma dawg? Pass.
I hate the market sometimes. https://t.co/hGh1Ze4dQP
I don’t honestly know what I’m looking at. Just reacting to what Carlin called “Soft language”.
These new authoritarians are trying to make commerce & the market do what the government legally cannot: make life impossible for dissenters. For the first time, to preserve freedom we will either need to regulate or nationalize. Both of which are terrible options. We’ve lost it.
Let me put this in the starkest terms. Our genius in the US is to NOT have our infrastructure nationalized. But laws like “Free Speech” don’t immediately carry over to the private sector. The idea of getting Tech-Finance-Universities-Media to shut down thought and speech is here.
The Portal invited Ashley Mathews in advance of the election to discuss this specifically outside of politics. This is not about politics, but about a class that wishes to use business to impose control over other lawful human beings. We cover it directly: https://t.co/29PgKTqPJB
Taken to its extreme conclusion, you will be free to bark ideas in a public park, only not to access banking, credit, electronic communication, education, the media. My old joke “Should Republicans be allowed to use the roads & phone system?” doesn’t seem all that funny in 2021
@Freakoutery Yes
Just got finished jamming and free styling with @glennbeck.
I have avoided his kind invitations for years. To appear Saturday. https://t.co/b2k3KnYVAq
Anything right in the above video may be due to @McCabesGuitar, @Fender, @rickbeato and @PositiveGrid’s Spark amp. Love you guys. Thanks.
This amateur can’t thank you all enough for what you do for our real musical communities. Let’s keep American music businesses in business.
@OCD09170396 @glennbeck Mexican
@Banzai_HB88 @McCabesGuitar @Fender @rickbeato @PositiveGrid Love it. Also @Paulmdavids, @its_adamneely, @musiciswin, Tim Pierce etc. They’re all players at super high levels, but as teachers & models they inspire those of us who may never get there yet who never let go of a dream to be part of *real* music beyond the merely market driven.
@MarkCatizone @McCabesGuitar @Fender @rickbeato @PositiveGrid I’ve never really had a friend I could talk guitar with other than @seanonolennon. As you can see, I don’t know how to use a pick even. As a friend Rick has made me feel like I can ask questions (uh...what’s a gate? What is compression). Never judges me.
@MarkCatizone @McCabesGuitar @Fender @rickbeato @PositiveGrid @seanonolennon I should say George Marios @georgemariosofficial on IG has tried to help me but he’s far away and we have only met once. He’s amazing and the most generous virtuoso. But I’m embarrassed being self-taught around professionals. I don’t know how many things I have down wrong.
@dannylukic @McCabesGuitar @Fender @rickbeato @PositiveGrid @lexfridman Totally! I would challenge Lex to a head cutting competition just to hear him kick my ass. He’s the best.
@majesticprimate @glennbeck What? I have no idea what is being said. Is my neck maple? As opposed to? Thanks. Just ignorant. The guitar was a gift 25 years ago. Just started playing electric recently. Mostly it gathered dust.
@jo3k3wl @glennbeck Cool!
@Vociferousklang @glennbeck Ha. Beck is in some sense unbeatable.
@goxiangqi @glennbeck No comment. That guy was so inspiring.
@BillandCaroline @glennbeck @PositiveGrid Spark. Default setting.
@NobbyHegel1 @glennbeck Ha! No you didn’t. But you are kind and that counts for more than honesty at times...
@ez_major @glennbeck ?
@W_Nelson @glennbeck If I knew how to play it, it would have been funnier!
@theborthface @glennbeck John Lee hooker and lighting Hopkins.
@MyMikeD @glennbeck Not a physicist
@Rushlimbang @glennbeck @JPetrucci Ha!!
@latenative @McCabesGuitar @Fender @rickbeato @PositiveGrid It's surprisingly powerful.
@MikeRickest @glennbeck Ok. Constructive criticism appreciated. What should I work on?
@poopstyx @glennbeck Can you say more? I don't understand. I just played a telecaster for the first time so I don't get the issues.
@eigenbros @glennbeck You got one??
@drnebuloso @glennbeck Yes.
@Tommyreillyj @glennbeck He does not.
@jjuniper7 @glennbeck Mexican. A gift.
@seanonolennon @MarkCatizone @McCabesGuitar @Fender @rickbeato @PositiveGrid I agree. I don't think we're at hot civil war yet. But you & me have been....early.
As for what I was getting at, it is a different issue. There are 2 separate issues: being formally taught and being isolated. Being self-taught is often a plus. But being isolated is different.
@seanonolennon @MarkCatizone @McCabesGuitar @Fender @rickbeato @PositiveGrid When I ask people "How do you find which amp is right for you?" The answers almost always assume that you are part of a scene. "See what your friends are using." "When you play with your mates, what sounds good to you?"
Advice just always assumes you are surrounded by players.
@seanonolennon @MarkCatizone @McCabesGuitar @Fender @rickbeato @PositiveGrid Musicians assume you know rosewood from maple. Neck pickups from bridge. Humbuckers from Single Coil. Hybrid from Alternate or Economy Picking. Progressive Metal from Djent. Etc.
I just heard all these issues for the first time in COVID. I'm 55 having owned a strat for 25 yrs.
@seanonolennon @MarkCatizone @McCabesGuitar @Fender @rickbeato @PositiveGrid I think that is what is so alienating about music. You have no way to break in if you aren't in a scene because the scene assumes a scene. But many of us who grew up before YouTube had no idea what any of this was. Music Stores seemed to attract too many condescending experts.
@terry_loon @glennbeck Wow. Thank you. This was on @PositiveGrid default setting number 1. Does she just love hers or is it more a convenient tool? For me it is a revelation.
I'm not aware of any family of serious wealth attempting to immunize essential societal infrastructure from market forces: journalism, medicine, education, research, campaigning, communication etc.
I know, I know..I don't get it. Why should anyone do that?
No. You don't get it.
We as alcholics should be putting the liquor cabinet beyond our own reach. And our biggest thought is: "But then we couldn't get drunk and take the Porsche for joy rides."
And I don't have an answer for that. Because, at one level, that does kinda suck. So where's da gin & keys?
Pretty sure only trained hedge fund professionals backed by institutional investors and UHNWs are supposed to commit theft/financial pillage by artificially distorting the market. I don't know why retail investors think they have the right or expertise to manipulate price action.
@HeyBradyDeluxe It's shocking! Soon Cats will be having sex with Dogs and selling tickets to The Birds and Bees just to watch for kicks. We have to have some standards. It's the market for g-d sakes.
Comedian @TimJDillon asks what I’ve ever done. Which is, actually, funny!
I’m the guy who predicted & discovered the secret 1986 @NSF study that projected hiked costs of STEM labor and then *faked* a demographic labor shortage to flood our markets.
So that & a few other things.
Open invite to @npr, @cnn, @nytimes, @washingtonpost, @MSNBC, @CBSNews. It will be a great story. I promise. But you will never run it will you? Of course not...ha!
Obviously that’s an insane brag on my part. Would no member of the press like to cover the story: “Prominent podcaster makes claim that National Science Foundation hid secret economic study to flood labor market.”
C’mon Tim. Push your point. Don’t be afraid. This could be fun.
Honest question: who are the *deep* critics of our establishment and institutions that the establishment and institutions *are* taking seriously?
Let’s assume I’m worried about Davos. Or media refusal to ask obvious questions about Epstein. Who are you listening to on that?
@jaketapper Ok. Take that as you state it.
Many of us are worried about the Great Reset & Davos. Or why the press won’t ask questions about accelerated natural selection in the Wuhan Lab. Or about Epstein & intelligence or where his hedge fund records are. Who are you listening to on those?
@jaketapper I’m, somewhat unfairly, asking you. I’d be happy to ask privately. My DMs are open.
I’m concerned that JE was never a hedge fund manager and that no one in traditional media is trying to find his hedge fund trading records/filings or asking about ties to intelligence community.
@jaketapper I’d recommend listening to @BretWeinstein on accelerated natural selection of the virus but to talk to virologists about the difference between an engineered synthetic virus & merely directing selection inside a lab. Media deals with the former only to discredit lab leak theory.
@jaketapper @BretWeinstein On the secret immigration act of 1990 & H-1B history, I can give you the backstory. But Michael Teitelbaum and Prof. Norman Matloff would be excellent sources once you know the reason the NSF flooded our markets leading to staffing our STEM research labs with Chinese nationals.
They will throttle your account. They will tell you that you are the far right. They may get you fired.
But if you deplore racism, you have to fight racists who have switched all the labels in the medicine cabinet. Otherwise you can’t really fight racism if a label confuses you.
If you won’t fight racism because a marketing unit called it “anti-racism” who are you?
If your child was poisoned and someone scrawled a skull and cross bones on the bottle of antidote, would you just watch helplessly?
Fight Critical Race Racism. Yes they will call you racist.
But telling me that Juan Maldacena is a genius for writing about gauge theory and markets and that I am a mere entertainer who needs to know is place is absurd. Funny actually.
Tell me bitcoiners: where do you think the great Juan Maldacena got this genius idea? Think about it..
Let us imagine that Governments wake up. That they realize that the way to control what that cannot control is violence. In such a situation, I don’t want a record of all transfers. Even an anonymous record. That’s what I am on about. Perhaps that is misguided. If so: explain.
Markets are the alternative to tyranny and central control. And having a digital gold is essential. I am not trying to save BTC. I am not trying to introduce a new alternative coin. I am worrying about tyranny and the blockchain as ledger. I am worried about what is to come.
The important thing is that BTC is a hedge against the manipulation of the world by central banking, economists and corrupt institutions. If you can accept that it is not my religion I can accept that it is without peer among recent inventions: markets ARE the alternative to war.
I really appreciate this change in heart.
So much so that I want to reciprocate: BTC is one of the most important developments of our lives. I read Allen’s piece. I’d like to engage your community as I take you all very seriously. But I don’t think I am who you see me as being.
Anyway, I would love to learn from your community as well as to share what I know. And I am not looking to introduce a “shitcoin”.
But a request: let’s cut the bs displays? It’s corroding us all and we now have a common threat in central banking & rigged markets to defeat. 🙏
I’ve been on your side...w gauge theory...since well before BTC. Early 1990s. The goal is to disintermediate the institutional players to liberate markets to avoid tyranny. So running me down using bullshit to score points is anti-Bitcoin in spirit. Makes us all look weak & dumb.
Look at the birth years of its leaders. You will see why it is fading. It was a product of the market that was never seen as such.
And, it will not face its own truth as it continues to deny what must be accepted. The Black Knight ending is unfolding:
Do you really want to know?
It was an outgrowth of academic political economy that allowed BabyBoomer physicists to concentrate the resources of the community by applying differential standards to themselves vs rivals to avoid dealing with our physical world over entire careers.
The visas & our fellow Americans abusing the labor market are the problem. Not the immigrants. And immigrants are often first to understand this. So odd how big STEM hides behind fake merit and xenophilia while the restrictionists fight their exploitation of American openness.
Love this from a brother here on H1b visa. I have spoken out against the H1b visa as an abomination and for restrictionism. But it’s never against the immigrants. They *should* pursue the best life possible. And if they become citizens, we welcome them fully. Thanks Maharana!
@allenf32 That is about right. We appear to still be divided on toxicity but not on substance. I was trying to say this if I understand you correctly. I also understand that your community has needed to defend itself. Don’t stop as I have been fighting your same enemies. But, I’m not them.
@allenf32 I just wanted not to have the world’s digital currency barking anonymous transactions to those in control of violence. I’m not for lawlessness but I am for privacy and don’t want BTC vulnerable to angry state actors when nations awaken to the threat to fiat currency & C-banking.
@allenf32 Remember this: those in control of the printing presses which devalue fiat currency through seigniorage are also in control of the guns needed to enforce the use of fiat currency.
And I’m not even a libertarian. Just a soul who hates being controlled by economists who lie to us.
@btcede @allenf32 No. I’m not telling you something you don’t know. I’m trying to think about what technology might lack this vulnerability and on what theory it would be based around. But...Let’s leave that for a while.
@btcede @allenf32 Happy to think in those terms as well. Will need teachers. Can’t do toxic. But otherwise, yes. However I’ve been on gauge theory and markets since the early 1990s and that has been our baby since well before Satoshi’s masterstroke. Why not assume it’s additive and not rivalrous?
@btcede @allenf32 Have to switch gears for a bit now.
@StopAndDecrypt @allenf32 Will do in a bit. Thx.
@luecki23 @allenf32 I’m not against that.
35 years after @nsf “Policy Research and Analysis” conspired w/ NAS Government University Research Roundtable to sell out STEM-America.
I’ve been on this over 30 years. Is it finally happening? I doubt it.
Why? B/C it’s the *entire* STEM labor system.
And here is a prediction. After we gut all of our advanced math and science, we are going to have a huge employer sponsored push to flood STEM markets with workers from abroad who were not subjected to “Diversity and Inclusion(tm)” re-education. Genius.
If I had to predict what will happen, I’d guess that the system will come to the mild conclusion that it needs better conflict reporting. And it will reclassify all of this as ‘normal’ except a few outlying cases. Then there might be a bit of scapegoating.
Just a guess.
We will need to go short the talent, ethics and skill of macro economists, central bankers, investment bankers and financiers.
Gold isn’t perfect. Neither is BTC.
But we must beware the printing press and calls for relief, easing and stimulus are cries for transfer & dilution.
Don’t let short term losses in Bitcoin sour you on Bitcoin, crypto or distributed computing. Don’t let Bitcoin zealots chase you away either.
Figuring out how we hedge against central bankers printing and devaluing fiat currency remains our upcoming rendezvous with the market. https://t.co/EdFOslWXN6
This is not investment advice. But it is a belief that central bankers through their disguised actions are a threat to all those who hold cash and its close equivalents. Look into BTC, XAU, CHF, XAG, etc etc etc and make up your own mind. There are risks to all. Good luck.
P.S. I have no time frame to give you on central banking actions. I just see a group of people who get into trouble and reach for the same tool. Over and over. And there will always be such trouble until we confront and address the underlying crisis in growth and innovation.
BOY: “Well, Emporor, by God’s grace, We ’ve got you Ratisbon! The Marshal’s in the market-place, And you ’ll be there anon To see your flag-bird flap his vans Where I, to heart’s desire, Perch’d him!” NAPOLEAN:”You ’re wounded!” BOY: “Nay, I ’m kill’d, Sire!”
As per R Browning.
It’s a real stretch for me to imagine Napolean from the lens of 2021.
If the poem is remembered at all, it’s for the last line “Smiling, the boy fell dead.” The above is their brief interchange, which is moving & haunting on the way we attach our lives to the goals of others.
200 years after Napoleon, we wonder how he inspired so much in so many.
There is no such thing in economics as a “labor shortage” for a large market economy with a wage mechanism.
You may thus gauge your media, think tanks, economics departments, political parties, corporations etc. by whether they discuss “labor shortages”:
What the US may need most is what employers will consider a deep and crippling 50 year “labor shortage”.
Bring on these scary “labor shortages”.“Labor shortages” mean strong families. “Labor shortages” mean inclusion & diversity *organically*.
“Labor shortages” mean happiness.
The interaction between money being a “Store of Value” and “Medium of Exchange” doesn’t say what to make of something that is not inflated away but which is also not exchange rate-stable.
I wonder: is crypto novel enough to simply break our aging concept of money itself?
This may be misguided, but it’s one reason I’m not put off crypto. Maybe crypto means to break money itself through such a triangle w/ Fiat & consumer prices revealing that simplistic stores-of-value are an illusion.
Maybe this is a true relativity theory, only now for markets.
Imagine you were in a regular hyperinflation with a fiat currency & all prices smoothly went up around a regular trend line in one currency. Priced in a 2nd currency however, they bounced around violently but with no trend up or down. There’d be no full “store of value” possible.
ConsumerPrices/Fiat/Crypto are vertices of a triangle. I can imagine Fiat being long term price-stable while subject to inflation and Crypto non-inflationary, but exchange-unstable. In essence exchange-volatility & price-inflatability can be separable threats to “Store of Value”.
One Moral: Numeraire is an illusion. They are all just reference frames, and none of them have the properties of a fixed Aether. In a dynamic world the search for a fixed store-of-value is a quixotic quest destined for failure. Crypto is the post-Newtonian money, showing us this.
Underrated tweet.
“Labor shortages” are the ultimate diversity and inclusion program.
For those of you new to this account, long term Labor Shortages don’t exist in large market economies with a wage mechanism.
@Jordy__Long @ChrisVolkernick “I need a piccolo player who knows Brahms perfectly ready to go in 30 minutes.” is a labor shortage that can occur. ;-)
The mainstream (that dutifully reported this as a simple suicide story) are our cranks.
They told us not to wear masks when we needed to and then to wear them when we didn’t.
They told us UFOs weren’t real but tell us they are now real.
And that COVID came from a wet market...
Clearly: We need to decrankify our mainstream.
We need to purge our institutions of our *mainstream* cranks (or Knarcs). We cannot run a nuclear and economic superpower with geopolitical rivals in this way with fake leadership lying to the public 24/7 about almost everything.
Have babies.
[Caveats sold separately. May not be suitable for all adults. Exceptions may apply. Does not constitute parenting advice. Void where prohibited.]
@OlivesGamerDad Wow: https://t.co/XGqVBu4ra0
@AndrewFazzolare You got this!
@porcupineprik Babies are bi-partisan.
@OlivesGamerDad Congratulations!!!
@TomH52888248 You got this!
@pennyfleamarket Clearly
@StephenAtHome is shocked…shocked. Why? Because maybe it is finally time to reveal that 1+1 is 2, men and women are different, and The Wuhan Institute of Virology is the prime suspect rather than a pangolin having sex with bats in a wet market.
Still too soon? Got it. Too soon.
@21WIRE @StephenAtHome I’m lost. I’m a big dummy for not knowing for certain like you that it couldn’t have come from the Virology institute? Or something?
Smart people sure are condescending to me.
A lot of UFO people are nutty. But you the careful community that called balls and strikes as best you could with limited information deserve not only rehabilitation in the minds of the public, but some official recognition that you are to be listened to in the future. Thank you.
I am very late to your party and even having gotten the report mostly right, it has been exceptionally unpleasant to get in front of it by even a few months. I can only imagine how it feels after the many years the US has gaslight you all while knowing you were not wrong.
To all the UFO people who were getting it right: I blew it. I thought you were bored, easily convinced, read too much sci-fi as kids, were easily taken in. I thought there was no way this could ambiguously exist in a world flooded with sensors. I thought you were not getting it.
Responsible folks share w/ me hoping that if I believe them, they wont have to share under their own name. I shared some of what was shared with me.
My market saying is "Early is another name for wrong." In UFO land "Early is another name for presumed Crazy".
Time to apologize.
I believe you now when you say that there is even much more high quality data available but that it has not been released.
At a personal level: You were right, I was wrong. Thanks for letting me join you at the 'last minute' in the few months before the report. I'll listen more.
I also wanted to say to the non-ufo community that whatever I got right largely didn't come from me. It came from patriots, fellow scientists & others who were not taken in the way I was. All I did was a bit of filtering and after market analysis given the gravity of the issue.
Q: What is the cost of discussing the daily onslaught of such articles?
Look at this differently. View this as “Sanity Jizyah”: all sane people are being taxed into oblivion in the market place of ideas. Conversely, all members of Wokestan are free to go about their daily lives.
There is a very simple way that Pharmaceutical companies can quash the fears of misinformation using the economic theory of Revealed Preference: By forgoing the protection of the PREP act from liability if vaccines are later found unsafe:
https://t.co/5IeGArjgou via @pharmexec
Let's get big Pharma the immunity they need from frivolous lawsuit. Make it ABSOLUTE. But let us ask them in turn to lead the way by showing how confident they are. If vaccine hesitancy is madness, the safety of the vaccines are the only protection they need. Let's get this done.
One does not need liability protection for selling pure distilled water or healthy iceberg lettuce. Same with safe vaccines. All that's needed is protection from FRIVOLOUS lawsuits, not from actual injury or death due vaccine as the vaccines are safe.
This gets us herd immunity.
This is good news. Even great news. This allows Pharma executives to SILENCE ONCE AND FOR ALL all concerns about vaccine safety and disinformation that threaten public health. By forgoing protection from liability of unintended consequences, the anti-vaxxers lose instantly. WIN!
Here's how it works. We are all told that these vaccines are safe and effective. That will not prevent frivolous lawsuits, so Pharmaceutical executives will *need* to be immunized from that. The expert claim is that the vaccines are safe and will not have long term side effects.
As the recipient of the Johnson & Johnson Covid Vaccine and w/ family vaccinated with Pfizer's Vaccine, I call on executives of these two companies to show the same faith in their product that I have shown. This is the slam dunk that ends the issue. All it takes is confidence. 🙏
Please share the lead tweet in this thread if you are concerned that throttling by Twitter will keep this proposal from being considered and helping to get us to Herd Immunity quickly. Let's change the discussion and go back to old style leadership in crisis.
Thank you.
@noUpside It's a skin in the game issue Renee. The genius of the market. It allows those who *know* that their products are safe to *silence* the nutters. We can & must fight the tin-foil hat crowd. Safe products are sold far and wide without exotic legal protection. Let pharma in on this.
@noUpside As I said, we pick up the tab as a nation for the cost of fighting ***all*** frivolous lawsuits. No settlements or payouts for nutters, opportunists, and conspiracy theorists seeking money for nothing. We end the payouts for COVID vaccines. Stick to science, markets and the law.
@noUpside As I think about it, this is exactly why you of all people should love this. It ends frivolous nuisance settlements for COVID. Nothing shuts down the nutters more quickly.
There is no engineer shortage.
Management and investors are gobbling the compensation needed to attrract engineers while attempting to flood markets from abroad by printing visas.
Interesting that this error in logic is impossible to remove. So simple, so wrong & so lucrative.
Or to turn it around:
There is a family shortage. A home shortage. A political access shortage. A career shortage. An opportunity shortage. A fairness shortage. A logic shortage. An ethics shortage. A bargaining symmetry shortage.
Involved in a *compensation* shortage for STEM.
Think about it this way: when a scientist hears that a FANTASTICALLY complicated non-linear interacting system is “settled science” they don’t know what to think.
I do believe we are in deep climate trouble. I don’t believe climate is “settled science.”
Why is no one motivated to insulate a reliable media channel from clickbait with a 10 figure endowment?
Why are our top scientists still dependent on grant cycles?
Why are we not endowing and insulating an NGO to monitor what we actually know and don’t know about climate?
Many of us have two separate reactions:
A) *Catastrophic* climate collapse is *entirely* plausible.
B) Media, Government & Scientific bodies have all been coercive in this area (e.g. “Settled Science”).
Why are we not insulating our science and media?
https://t.co/iYhkpipZf1
This is another version of the vaccine point. Many of us will inject ourselves if credible experts say “There are risks, here’s what we know and don’t know.” But it is far harder when nakedly political people who get many things repeatedly wrong say “THIS-IS-SAFE. FULL STOP.”
Many of us are not climate deniers. We believe in a coming catastrophe. But we seek leaders who are not sanctimonious oversellers. I would change my lifestyle for someone who says “we can’t know” but find it difficult to follow someone who says “Science absolutely knows this.”
We’ve got to find different leadership. The Guardian has been nakedly unreliable on radical issues. But they may be correct here. Why don’t we have an alternative that is endowed not to need clicks, subscriptions or advertisers? Yet no one is building insulated institutions.
Now, I hate taking orders from anyone. But in a crisis, I am **reluctantly** willing to take orders from competent expert public spirited leaders who know more than I do.
But “settled science” communicates the opposite. It sends the “We leaders are incompetent” message to me.
Put simply, the closed form solution to the simple three body problem can’t be an open problem while climate is settled if climate is incalculably more complex.
So “settled” doesn’t mean settled. It is “consensus speak” for when some group wants to obligate us to take orders.
This could get really bad. And I just wish I knew to whom we could turn to get the straight story without the sanctimony, clickbait, politics, and fake certainty. But I don’t.
Thanks.
So my question is: why is no 12 or 11 figure family stepping up to endow insulation from the markets and politics on issues like pandemic, food security, climate, inflation, inequality, etc… why are we prisoner to the authoritarian oversellers of certainty? I just don’t get it.
With that rubric, I have gotten along well with them. You can either add the non-linear interactions in or approximate them out, but you need freedom & its adjustments.
We all need to worry about freedom and we all know that many of our actions inevitably do impact each other.
I view radical libertarianism as, almost literally, the linear approximation to a free society where you take all non-linear ways we impact each other & send them to zero in the libertarian limit.
Conversely they see my world as perturbation theory on a completely free society.
Whatever is going to price in those externalities is going to involve:
Inference Imputation Politics Speculation Manipulation Injustice
So all you have done is to roll the unfairness of politics into the unfairness of a new powerful market actor that prices in market failure.
Sometimes the hardest conversation in this area is about the market. The great dream of libertarian market enthusiasts is that if we could only price in all interactions as externalities, the market would handle all adjustments to a perfectly free base case. Which makes no sense.
Eventually I can usually reach a point where someone without to-the-core ideological commitment opines that it is generally better to ignore interactions than to attempt to correct them…a point with which I’m generally sympathetic, with many important exceptions. But not always.
@PeterMcCormack Of course.
I have been in rooms with @JDVance1 @bgmasters or @peterthiel where the entire focus is hours spent trying to figure out plans to help US working families make the markets work for them. I can’t get that quality of conversation on the Left. And I’m sometimes the only Democrat.
If the genuine left is about working families and the dignity of labor, then we old labor progressives have to admit the conversation on working families shifted towards the Right. Why? Because the @DNC seems uncomfortable with National interests (jingoism!) and Family above all.
In my experience @AnnCoulter is actually more genuinely left of center on our needing deep painful labor shortages that bring employers to their knees at the bargaining table rather than the Visa trough, than the fake Left we call the @DNC. Anti-war is another example of this.
Standing by to hear once again how I just don’t get it from people in the @dnc more focused on carried interest tax exemptions, infinite work visas for non-existent labor shortages, and defunding the police while denying the cupidity of organized identity to replace labor unions.
The Left abandoned the Left. The Right is in the process of taking over our best abandoned real estate. Time to wake up.
Anti-war. Pro-dignity of labor. Pro family. Pro-Patriotism. Anti-censorship. Anti-totalitarian. Pro-freedom. Anti-authoritarian.
That’s the core Real Left.
You may despise @TuckerCarlson if you are on the Left. But in private, he focuses on US working families. When we on the nominal Left now hear “US working families” we start in like we don’t know our own history. “Why US?” “Why Working?” “Why Families?”
We walked off our post.
@cBlondesReport That one too.
@williamlweaver I don’t know that I agree with that.
But I’d drink to that in a heartbeat.
@Zulhihi @AnnCoulter @DNC I must look Native American to you. Look again.
@MrTheposter @Zulhihi @AnnCoulter @DNC This is a true point that cannot be made.
I’ve been asked by @DrBrianKeating to celebrate his 50th birthday today (!) to join him 1 on 1 for a livestream on Physics, Society, Markets and more.
Join me in wishing happy birthday to a great physicist and spirit! HBD Brian.
Let’s assume that we have many people who can build disruptive startups. They don’t have the same luck with:
The Military
Research Universities
International News Agencies
Hospitals
Road & Rail systems
Commercial Airports
Political Parties
Etc.
Shall we talk seriously?
I get that we can code apps. Go us!
But not every Institution can be replaced by a core team of developers backed by Venture funding, ramen noodles and a cap table.
When do we stop pretending markets and software fix everything? We need to get real about institutions. Like now.
@ButWhatForBlog We have to fix their leadership. Not just try to disrupt them with an app.
"The money supply is expanding due to choices by humans you didn't elect and who cannot be questioned. Here's how to stretch your dwindling dollar at the supermarket as your wealth is transfered through seignorage to the wealthy who hold risk assets in the capital markets."
"This assertion X that should be main story and which is a major point of contention is stated in this part of the headline as something that cannot be argued with or changed. This part attempts to tell you how to personally cope with what has been taken away from you in part 1."
"The workplace is being changed to make merit, ability, training and other attributes less important than identity. Here's how to avoid saying (and thinking) important true things in this new crazy office environment that could get you fired if you are not highly intersectional."
"Because you can be portrayed as too stupid to do STEM, we're going to use that to import an entire STEM labor force from our chief strategic rival only to destroy your ability to bargain at the negotiating table. Here are 25 handy Mandarin phrases to train our new co-workers!"
You get the idea because you have seen it before. Please dm me your examples of this headline formula? I am thinking of starting a collection. Thanks.
"We're capriciously taking away social media accounts of dissenters as a means of advancing our own interests. Here are five tips to avoid posting something smart and real, but that we can portray as misinformation to shut you down even though what you said is obviously correct."
Let me also say what new ideas I'm hearing in the backgound this week. Multiple folks from Tech/Academe/Journalism starting to ask the question: "Nothing can be this dumb or this ignorant of reality. Nothing can be this consistantly off by chance. If true, what would that imply?"
Love this!
Imagine @bariweiss as the CNN host. Ratings would skyrocket. So why if the market is all powerful will that never happen? CNN isn't trying to be a business *or* the News! Think about that.
Playing dumb around Bari Weiss is not a strategy I would recommend. Well done.
But, that means that orthodontists & researchers & columnists are more likely to seek me out to ask "Am I crazy for thinking this?" And there has been a spike recently. At first I thought it was due to the obvious nature of the Horse Dewormer campaign. But it is like Bari Says.
When CEOs & mainstream Journalists start asking 'Is a foreign power attacking us by paying off our elite to destroy us from within?" even I get nervous. I am used to being more willing to consider this based on the history of my family and the treatment of american Progressives.
Obviously many people have been wondering that for a long time. But what is changing is that people who months ago were dismissively talking about 'Conspiracy Theorists' are suddenly terrified of their own thoughts new thoughts that this self-destruction can't simply be chance.
"Sixth grade." She said.
"Got it." I replied.
I just want to close with something that happened . I was chatting on Saturday with an engaging teacher of some kind. She told me that she had now adapted to the fact that "Many of my students are Pansexual! Some are Polyamorous and many are Trans."
"What do you teach?" I asked.
Would you prefer to send a promising STEM student to a university that was focused on Diversity Equity and Inclusion along with merit or one that was singularly focused on merit, ability, performance and academic freedom to the exclusion of nearly all other attributes:
Feel free to retweet the poll to spread the awareness well beyond those who follow this account. Particularly to accounts that disagree with this one. Thanks.
@DocJohnG Feel free to conduct your own inquiry.
Insult noted. Doctor.
@erikbiz Sure. This is a quick check. Not a scientific contribution to the peer reviewed literature.
@erikbiz Feel free to reproduce any way you like.
@DocJohnG That’s twice with the unprovoked insults. Maybe have a scotch and stop working at deliberately being a prick. Doctor.
There won’t be a number three. I’ll block and move on. Life is too short.
@DocJohnG You have some points there. But you need to stop inferring things that aren’t true and pre-emptively insulting colleagues on an unprovoked basis. Doctor.
Cc: @elonmusk
If you’re at all serious about either universities or using physics and engineering to diversify and get off this planet. We don’t know what you’re waiting for as our STEM decays: can you give us a hint & pause the mind games long enough to send a clear signal?🙏
@SmotWicket @elonmusk Agreed. My DMs are open for such events.
@mempko @elonmusk I’m not begging. If it’s all a marketing ploy let’s find out. If he is serious about a university named TITS, let’s find out. But there is no issue of pride. The STEM infrastructure is decaying at an incredible rate. Go to a particle physics seminar. You’ll see immediately.
@ShadeandSun @elonmusk Glad you cleared that up.
Also Tesla models X, 3, S and Y. are a joke.
Not to mention that rockets look a bit like…oh nevermind.
@ShadeandSun @elonmusk We shall see! I have said from the beginning no one can know until he acts or fails to over a reasonable period of time.
@ShadeandSun @elonmusk Agreed on all counts.
@matloff @MeGupsta I absolutely believe in diversity and inclusion through merit. I don’t believe in equality of outcome under any circumstances. I believe in some remediation of real historical oppression and limited current structural problems. But not to the DEI extent by a long shot. Thanks.
@matloff @MeGupsta To me, Merit is a diversity program. My ethnic group has been among the most brutally oppressed in living memory. And merit worked for us even in eras of open discrimination. Let’s extend that success to all.
@matloff @MeGupsta In that sense. And the Italians? The Persians? Black Americans? Irish? Scots? All incredibly accomplished in the US. We have a lot to be proud of.
@matloff @MeGupsta I’ve been pretty clear about that. But DEI(tm) is a disaster. Let’s encourage and mentor those interested in STEM from underrepresented groups. And a lot of that is rigor. Soft DEI(tm) thinking doesn’t help in hard STEM subjects. It does the opposite.
@matloff @MeGupsta Well, I’m pretty outspoken about wanting a diverse group of Americans in STEM. And pretty outspoken about the woke abomination of DEI as a means to achieve that. If there were a program called “Help every orphan” I would likely oppose it because it is more likely to house a scam.
@matloff @MeGupsta Let’s not get sucked in to woke optics.
We get it: the woke are for all things good in theory. In practice it is a bit different. So they call their sub movements things like “Dignity for first peoples!” to get you not to question what they are actually up to in reality.
The US Academic Scam: “We need to find Americans smart enough to do Nobel level science and dumb enough not to realize that we will permanently artificially glut markets so that they will have zero leverage against whatever we, their Silent & Boomer masters, want to do to them.”
The STEM shortage has been a total myth and a scam. It is an employer based gutting of America’s future to serve a dying cohort of people who bizarrely have zero interest in what they leave behind as a legacy.
Remember this odd fact: almost every graph of changes in universities over time involving tuition, faculty, time to degree, jobs, etc tells exactly the same story. Choose any university. Any measure of one generation extracting money from its descendants by destroying its future:
If I am correct there are now generations of discoveries by hundreds of STEM folks that were lost because they threatened their older masters or which bear the names of the masters with the scientist who did the original work cast out of the system. We disappeared STEM’s best.
So @elonmusk, bitcoiners, crypto folks, any interest? Every year we wait, what we built degrades further & further into madness. Let’s create wealthy scientists who can tell us all to fuck off when we incentivize them to do the wrong thing in science & rigorous education. #EndDEI
Now back to your regularly scheduled jokes about Contrarian University of North Texas…
Thanks for hearing me out on this periodically. I don’t know what to do to make this interesting and obvious. It’s destroying our future.
@cloudsweeper99 Did you see the word ‘artificially’ above? I’m guessing you did.
This is a market. Let’s get this much needed pain to our universities/STEM employers. That’s how this works. Our STEM employers need pain to stop lying & to stop helping our strategic rivals play us like a fiddle. How do we get them as much pain as we can, as quickly as possible?
The research university system would start to collapse. And we would at last be forced to conclude that using PRC labor to try to intimidate America’s STEW force into accepting *scraps* to enrich everyone else is probably about the dumbest thing we do as a nation.
Close to it.
Moral: Scientists are central to a modern nation on every level. Only a 3rd rate kleptocracy chisels on compensation and insulation of STEM professionals. The deliberate use by NSF of PRC labor (student and otherwise) to hold down US wages is an advanced form of academic madness.
@esportswombat Mmmm. Irish STEM!
@TheyLive_MD We should look at that.
Q2: What happens to our BLS COL framework when ordinal tastes change? How is the effect of substitution due to price change disaggregated by BLS from changes in ordinal preferences? This is important because marketing, education, etc change tastes & there is no theory for this.
Q1: Where exactly do I find the ordinal indifference maps constructed by BLS for a 'Representative Consumer' used to find substitution bias in fixed basket Mechanical approximations to a welfare Cost-Of-Living framework based on a Konus economic index of intertemporal welfare?
I cannot find any place where the preference maps needed to construct a Laspeyres Konus COL index are gleaned through revealed preference. I will go so far as to say that this is bait & switch. There is a CLAIM of a COL framework, but no one is constructing anything of the kind.
Great news, given that *every* tick of your BLS CPI forces billions of dollars to change hands.
"The concept of the cost-of-living index guides the CPI measurement objective and is the standard by which any bias in the CPI is defined."
I found this on @BLS_gov site. Is it true?
What I'm looking for is for BLS to stop pretending it's discerning "THE rate of inflation" to admit that it's making *policy* choices while appearing to be technical. It's determining our taxes and our entitlements by indexing, with our future in its hands as mere 'technicians'.
Let me give you the non-answers so you can correct:
A1: "Well, you are looking at it too literally...we have studied superlative index numbers which give a second order approximation to flexible functional form...blah blah blah."
A2: "That's really an obscure academic issue."
@Web_IV Okay. I should be pushing something out on CPI soon.
@JosephPolitano @BLS_gov “Guided by the concept of a COL index but is not a perfect measurement.”
Can you show me *any* imperfect COL preferences to give me a sense of how far we may be off? Specifically preference maps: there is no COL without preference maps with which to evaluate substitution bias.
@JosephPolitano @BLS_gov Q: Where do I find the imperfect preferences maps for the COL claim?
Q: How were those preference maps computed or imputed?
Q: How does chained CPI calculate taste change given the claim of the fed that time varying ordinal preferences cannot be tracked in COL even in theory?
@JosephPolitano @BLS_gov Wait. Slow down.
Did you just say that BLS is claiming to work within a Cost of Living framework which *requires* preference maps *definitionally*, but…words fail me…has no preference maps? At all??
I must not be understanding. Chaining Tornqvist indexes isn’t an answer here. https://t.co/IyIArW40OV
@besttrousers "[A] market basket of goods and services equivalent to one they could purchase in an earlier period."
Exactly. Looking for the *exact* *technical* definition of 'equivalent' in the above. Can you point me to it? I assume it's a notion of revealed indifference in ordinal welfare.
@besttrousers I wasn't able to find the answer to the above. Perhaps you had better luck?
@JosephPolitano @besttrousers Uh…The Laspeyres is a *mechanical* index. The BLS site says it works within a *COL* framework.
When Mechanical = COL, it is called an exact index. You are not saying that BLS believes
Laspeyres CPI = Konus COL
I assume, because that is false. So what are you and BLS saying?
You have no idea how crazy econ got to make us all the same so that what we're saying can be ignored. Seriously, think about asserting that all folks have the same tastes & that they can never change so that economists can use 'Stable preferences...relentlessly & unflinchingly'.
You mean field. Economics is actually all about fields: field operators & field theory.
Technically, inflation is classically like a Wilson Loop observable on path spaces. But economists have historically denigrated path-dependent approaches (e.g. 'cycling problems', 'drift').🤷
The move to look out for is 'Superlative price index numbers give an excellent approximation to the true 'Cost-Of-Living'!" which totally sidesteps the field issue you bring up, the dynamic taste issue (replaced by 'Stable preferences'), & inequality (replaced by homotheticity).
“The combined assumptions of maximizing behavior, market equilibrium, and stable preferences, used relentlessly and unflinchingly, form the heart of the economic approach...” -Gary Becker
Followed by inexplicable & inscrutable 'work' of Becker & Stigler: https://t.co/4VnGQc3rTP
You will see in the inflation literature various bizarre tendencies to introduce 'homogenous' or 'homothetic' utility functions and to hold these functions fixed. Ultimately it fell to 2 giants to claim that taste is universal. That way, rich/poor, you/me all have common utility.
And we are not even trying to measure that. To this day, I can't *really* understand what CPI-U is. That is either because I'm too dumb, or the field has gone mad agreeing with itself while disconnected from reality. And I believe no one is that dumb. Even on a really bad day...
It's like publishing a number for the temperature in the US in 2020. Your path dependent price index measure of inflation is as individual as your commute. It's *mildly* meaningul to posit a 'representative commute to work' that doesn't depend on our various routes. But not very.
All of these simplifications are made better in a fully path dependent field theory framework with endogenously determined differential operators.
Claiming we all have the same unchanging tastes (e.g. Becker-Stigler) and working in simplified regimes isn't at all understandable.
The proposal to extend the Cost-Of-Living framework to changing ordinal preferences using differential geometry is now up at @uchicago here, as our inflation numbers soar. Thanks to my mathematical colleague @edfrenkel for going over the draft Tues night: https://t.co/16D1ph0d24
The paper gives our proposed construction of the solution to the long standing changing preference problem in intertemporal market welfare theory, discussed in the opening quote, via a welfare map through parallel translation in a natural ♾-dimensional principal fiber bundle.
Also: thanks to Australian mathematician @Tim_Melon for going over the draft, and offering several ideas for exposition, as well as catching some omissions and symbolic errors in his reading. Much obliged.
Likewise to @BrookeDallas who improved the draft in a careful reading.
As an admirer of markets as engines of progress, it was a pleasure to be invited to address the @UChicago Adam Smith Society. Sorry we hit capacity; it was a gracious invitation and I’m happy to return, giving more notice next time. Thanks for a great evening & great questions!🙏 https://t.co/VzlQTLWeG6
We don’t always agree. I’ve no idea how Satoshi took aim at I) above. And I don’t yet know how to explain the importance of gauge theory to Gold (physical Gauge Theory), Prices/Quantities (abelian GT), Trade (non-abelian GT) and Utility (infinite dim GT): https://t.co/16D1phhNTC
But we’ve been working together behind the scenes. I so appreciate @Breedlove22 coming to Chicago to witness what I hope will be the beginning of an attack on abuses of perhaps the second most dangerous printing press in Washington as inflation heats up.
Thanks #Bitcoiners: LFG. https://t.co/Oo16iBbVnv
Bitcoiners, open minded economists & math/physics folks: we have a serious problem navigating world markets using indicators that currently rely on *preposterous* assumptions (homotheticity, law of one price, stable tastes, etc) Economics needs more eyeballs on it from outside.🙏
Lastly when we trade with nations that have a different currency from ours, how can we measure inflation of both separate currencies relative to two baskets (imports & exports) without artificially assuming the law of one price?
We *must* innovate here:
- bitcoin #Crypto #nft #Blockchain #Decentralization #DeFi #web3 #inflation #cpi #Trade #gaugetheory
@pmontu33 @normonics Feel free not to like my perspective. But it’s not my position to use government where the market works well. An honest free market person recognizes a slew of places where the market doesn’t work well (e.g. public goods, unincorporated externalities, principal/agent conflict).
@pmontu33 @normonics I’m super hopeful that crypto decentralization will extend the market. I’m super depressed that people think that either solves everything or nothing.
One man’s opinion. And thanks for following me as someone whose perspective irritates you. Appreciate that.
@normonics @pmontu33 Mostly agree. Each problem occurs at scale just like in a body. Cellular problems you study with cytology. When cells aggregate into tissue, use Histology not cytology. When tissues combine to form functional systems of organs use physiology.
I don’t understand “cytology only”.
@normonics @pmontu33 Let’s scale up decentralization across levels with that principle in mind. Address every problem at the level at which it occurs.
I don’t know why this is so hard to agree to. Many people are simply afraid of idiots and authoritarians in power. We just have to get them out.
My friend Robert @Breedlove22 asked me to sit down with him for a series of talks to discuss #Bitcoin and the nature of money, markets and their potential for manipulation by central bankers/politicized statistical bureaus.
Our first installment is here:
Many of you perceive a bull market in on-line cruelty:
Thought Experiment: Imagine central banking was changed so that when central bankers added to the money supply, the mints were empowered & compelled to print additional shares of companies to avoid asset inflation and extend citizen shareholding.
What would the world look like?
I don’t want to clarify exactly what I mean or the exact mechanisms. I want to explore a Fed that prints shares, just as businesses rely on stimulus, easing, bailouts & printing more visas. What if shareholders were diluted by the fed, along with fiat holders, removing asymmetry.
@realemichaeltv Oh no. Let’s say I ask Twitter “Do you like coffee?” Twitter’s response is to nit pick: “What do you mean like?” “ARABICA only right?” “How old is the coffee?” “Is you singular or plural?” “Is addiction and liking the same thing?”
And I have a family that matters more to me.
@BranBTC It’s freaking me out. Honestly.
Like it has become pointless to do anything other than announce one’s tribal intellectualism.
“Austrian in da House!”
“Georgist representing.”
“Team Keynes!”
“Nihilism for the win!”
“Your question sucks cuz yur a big dumdum.”
We seem stuck.
@AsiffHirji Sure. We can move to real estate and print fractional deeds and force all deeds to live in REITs, Etc.
My point is about different ways to use markets so as to teach owners of capital/land/etc through shared paired pain about what’s being done to labor’s fiat salaries & savings.
Most anti-woke I know are *fully* Vaxxed. Don’t know anyone in the core group who is fully “anti-vaccine.”
Huh. Might it be that “defining identity” is a projection or a smear? Who are you thinking of who self identifies as “anti-vax” definitionally? Would be interested to meet.
For example, I believe Daszak, Fauci, Collins & @TheLancet may have teamed up to *smear* anyone who questions whether @EcoHealthNYC & the CCP are doing a joint end-run around the 1975 Biological Weapons Convention. But without hearings, no one can say with what Daszak is tasked.
I have many miles banked on just such an airline that lies to me and hides its issues. I always wonder: “If I can’t trust you with a guitar or a reservation, why am I trusting you with my life?”
That is the issue with the anti-woke. They are divided as to what those lies mean.
I have a model that might help you though: Airline Trust.
Consider an insufferable airline. They lose and abuse luggage. Their food runs out. Their flights are delayed. They seem incompetent.
But, their planes don’t fall out of the sky. At least yet…
E) A Covert military program of @doddtra that we can’t be honest about, is destroying trust.
F) Science and data say the vaccines work!
G) Science and data say the vaccines don’t work!
H) Isn’t this my body/my choice?
I) Tuskegee, but for sterilization to control population.
So what do you expect? The iconoclasts spread out and adopt different most likely explanations:
A) Decent drugs with confusing messaging.
B) Significant mismanagement through pathological incompetence.
C) Great vaccines Sabotaged by MD\PHD grifters and crackpots.
D) Tyrrany.
That is, we can’t say whether: A) This is zoonotic. B) It is an engineered bioweapon. C) It is a moronic lab leak.
What we can say is that we’re being lied to, spun, played, smeared, etc by a group that doesn’t feel they owe ANY outside scientists info as to what’s fully known.
The less trust you have, the more you think that your airline is about to endanger passengers the way they break guitars. The more trust you have, you think “The core scientific functions still work despite some hiccups.”
So you are seeing the effects of information starvation.
And we all guessed a bit differently because easily decidable proposition aren’t being properly adjudicated. I honestly don’t exactly know why @SamHarrisOrg and @clairlemon are on one side while @BretWeinstein and @MaajidNawaz are far from them.
Except, for ‘trust’ that is.
M) Something we can’t guess.
Etc.
Honestly, I don’t trust anyone who isn’t wrestling with almost all of those. We simply don’t know, because no one in a position to find out seems to want us to find out.
So with all respect, it makes total sense: we have to guess about lies.
J) Bill Gates, Pfizer, CNN and Davos won’t tell us what is going on but dissident doctors will.
K) The debunkers need to show everyone who isn’t with the program is a charlatan grifting for that sweet podcast dollar.
L) Maybe the market isn’t a perfect fit for pharmaceuticals.
I don’t know ANY formerly reasonable anti-woke who are simply anti-Vaxx. Maybe they are out there?!? Dunno. But that always seems like an Internet rumor the institutions are eager to spread to target iconoclasts pushing for answers.
But go back to the airline model. It works.
But the higher trust anti-woke are VERY pro-vaccine. The low trust anti-woke are vaxxed and boosted but worried that they made the wrong call. The very low trust anti-woke are USUALLY pro vaccine but worried that mRNA is too novel and everything smells like incremental tyranny.
@anwit07 That’s the point. Is it two separate standards? We don’t know.
@hashtagfox Sam, like all of us, is struggling to find his footing in my opinion. As am I.
It’s an impossible situation. So we fail a bit. Be compassionate. Everyone is fumbling as I see it .
2022[edit]
That wasn’t the weird part. Once I showed the underlying code that fooled them, they didn’t necessarily want to train on it even though they had gotten it wrong.
I later understood that their compensation was structured asymmetrically. They weren’t wrong so much as incentivized.
I built a reasonably advanced random currency market simulator once to show traders. If I forgot to mention it was random, they’d at times say things I found shocking: “Omg! We’re testing resistance. A huge option position at the 1.28 level. Don’t miss it. Classic sell signal!”
This is a very clear example of why raw UFO videos mean almost nothing to me. I have no context. Not a pilot. Not an expert in video editing. Yeah. It’s weird. But like with vaccines and COVID, I don’t know what I’m looking at with so many perverse incentives to see something.
And that is what I think about UFOs. We’re incentivized to want to believe something. So I sit out these videos. Hey, we all want to believe. But if there’s something amazing to this, I’d rather not swing at an outside pitch.
So good luck! I just don’t have any context. No idea.
“The market can remain irrational longer than…you can afford to stay out.” -@billjaneway PhD on bubbles and why they are essential to capitalism.
Brilliant. And much more insightful than his hero Keynes, from whom it is patterned.
I forget just how much I learned from Bill.
“They are a private company, they can do whatever they want. It’s a free market economy.”
I don’t mean to be stupid, but can someone explain how this applies to weapons manufacturers, baby food companies, automobile makers, communications companies, oil and gas, and airlines? https://t.co/NoAgAIOdGX
I’d like to know how a communications utility like Twitter puts algorithms in our feeds that distort our sense of the world even more than I want drug manufacturers to recite side effects when marketing pills for allergies on TV.
Then folks recited this mantra “It’s a…”
I assume that it must mean something to those who say it. Surely they’re aware that companies aren’t free to do whatever they want. That the market isn’t unregulated. But it’s said so often & so invariantly that it feels like common prayer.
What does it mean to those who say it?
So I say “Users of Twitter/Gerber products should have a *right* to know all of the algorithms/ingredients that go into constructing their communications/BabyFood listed for all to see.”
And then folks chant the mantra. Honestly confused. How does that work in their minds?
@News1Corner Uh…ok.
@TheZvi Zvi! Good to see you.
@davidwalton Start by admitting to down regulation of accounts Twitter doesn’t like: de boosting, down ranking, shadow banning. Etc .
@davidwalton I’d love to know whether they pump certain tweets to the people who dislike you. Some followers see all your tweets Others never see each others tweets. It’s nuts.
I know of no well resourced individual interested in leading an attempt to save our institutions from current leadership. No one I know is studying why seemingly disjoint institutions (e.g. @splcenter, @ACLU, @nytimes, @UCBerkeley, @MSNBC, @NIH, @sciam, etc.) would act as one.
The entire idea of academic freedom was to free one class of people from "Sinclair's Prison". How do you make a scientist or an academician immunized from having her or his paycheck depend on whether she/he evidences understanding of an inconvenient truth power wants buried?
I don't know how to interpret this, but there are a very large number of folks without those levels of resources who have tried and paid dearly. Yet, I am aware of no mega check that has ever been written to allow them to know the freedom of dissent enjoyed by the ultrawealthy.
In short, anyone who could credibly even attempt to save these structures (or even allow us to understand their rapid collective demise by studying the slide without needing to seek funding or approval) is acting as if this isn't interesting or a priority...or they approve of it.
I'm not calling for support here. I am pointing out something much more interesting. No one wealthy...as in no one who owns a large private jet and above...finds this something worth doing. *ALL* of our wealthy have given up on our shared institutions. And I found that striking.
Moral: markets may still be functioning, but wealth is not. The world of folks having their reputations systematically destroyed by trying to opennly call for defense of our institutions and their values against our current suicidal leadership & the on-line hordes is unsupported.
We don't have such people anymore. We need to get rid of modern "accountability" and all those other words that give people a gooey feeling they are doing the right thing. We need our truth apparatus immunized from the market as we had it before. Yet no one works on this issue.
Maybe the wealthy are just super smart & have an escape plan. If so, I haven't heard it. Call it a hunch, but watching the collapse in institutional trust, I don't think this is going to end well for anyone, including the ultra wealthy. It's one planet connected by an atmosphere.
No it has not always been like this. No Democrats have not always been insane. No January 6th wasn’t a party that got a little crazy. No it wasn’t the darkest day in US history. No Trump wasn’t just a mean Tweeter. No, antinatalism, perfectly free markets, anarchy aren’t viable.
I’m tired of all the pat answers out here as well. No: Bitcoin doesn’t fix this. We cannot just burn it all the f**k down. No the ballot doesn’t work. No Florida doesn’t fix this. No we can’t just follow the peer reviewed literature. No we cannot all just start companies.
My children have an expected six decades in front of them. One has lost a normal college experience. One has lost high school. Their father cannot figure out how to parent them through mandates.
This man, has less than 10 years.
I just sit and stare at this. I feel numb.
Something bad is happening and it’s new. This hasn’t happened.
If someone showed 2022 to your 2014 self, you would be shocked.
We destroy anything that can act as a check on our slide.
Is no one trying to avert what is coming next from this?
Back to shuffle dance Tik-Tok. 🙏
@arbword You have Internet and an electronic device. An education with the ability to form sentences. You show an address in North America on land that used to belong to the bison before it was stolen by native Americans before it was stolen again by Europeans.
Welcome my fellow elitist.
Refusing to wear a mask is less effective than Pathological Over-Compliance Protest Theater.
It’s time to shame the nanny state that refuses to explain what is going on, or what we know about the Wuhan origin of COVID & GoF by pointing out how arbitrary Fauci-rules are.
Amazon: https://t.co/ooFX7yJncI
Why only 6 feet social distancing? Imagine you were shopping at the market in an N95 mask and you encountered a pair of hazmat suited flash mobs in blue and white shaming each other for under compliance. One uses hula hoops for enforcing social distancing. The other Zorb balls. https://t.co/kkE6rfgreq
Or perhaps people should compete to hold the largest mass apology over nothing with a high production value hostage video filmed from a drone.
Or perhaps we could hold the world’s largest “Nip Whiteness in the Bud!” rally to shame fair-skinned infants and the racism of MLK Jr: https://t.co/bsfSxFCQVc
Maybe we need to protest for Speech Control “Guns don’t kill people: speech kills people.” Or protest required food labeling and drug testing: “Hey, they are private companies like Twitter. They can do whatever they want!” w Pfizer-appreciation block parties for news sponsorship.
Ultimately, it’s time for pro-social civil disobedience to get hearings & answers to the questions Anthony Fauci, Ibram Kendi, Peter Daszak, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi etc don’t seem to want asked. What the hell is going on? It’s not science. It’s not progressive. What is it?
I’d like to get back to making this a better world. We can’t do that without free speech on tbe internet.
And I would like to have a good time doing it. We STEM democrats need to stage an intervention in our political party. We’re entitled to answers that make actual sense. 🙏
Keep your mouth shut or lose job security.
Sometimes @skdh drives me nuts. Usually, it’s in a good way. Can no one with money or power fix this situation? No? Of course not. You want science slaves. How’s that working in virology?
Somebody get our scientists wealth & freedom.
I spent a lot of time in beautiful homes and second homes of older research scientists as a grad student.
We should be embarrassed how far into precariousness we pushed Generation X & Millennials. Our entire economy is now bet on bargain science provided way below market.#Enough
@NJDEV89 @skdh ?
@renierduplessis @NJDEV89 @skdh @BretWeinstein Seemed confused .
I’ll be sure to ask him. But in the meantime why don’t we ask why economists at @nsf in 1986 secretly did economic wage projections and then erased ALL the demand curves to pass the 1990 immigration act in a fake demographic panic to destroy our scientists’ bargaining positions?
I’m not sure why Peter needs to clean up a conspiracy at @nsf and the National Academy of Sciences to defraud the US on behalf of technical employers who wanted their markets flooded with cheap talent. Can you ask economists what a “labor shortage” would be in a *market* economy?
@karyns4 @NSF Wow! “All well paid and thriving.”
We are back?! With tenure? Easy grant renewals for long term research? 4 years to PhD? Full benefits? Kids in independent schools? Jobs in the same city as their spouses? 2nd Homes?
This is great news. I stand corrected.
Only it’s not true.
“When did government ever accomplish **anything**?” many of you ask me.
“Don’t you see Eric? It has always been like this. Government is never the answer. Don’t you get it? We need to tear down our institutions. There is *never* a time for emergency powers. It’s all fake.” https://t.co/YuaCSGnkeC
I’m so sorry. Clearly I have failed you. It’s all Pfizer and Fauci to many of you. The market will sort it all out. Or Bitcoin. Or something. https://t.co/tYCgoP2xSM
Clearly there is nothing we can do that works to make the world a better place. It’s all bullshit. https://t.co/7nQQNr4ApR
No doubt. I just don’t get it.
You kids go on ahead with your Anarcho-Syndicapitialist-anti-Natalism NFT driven utopia. Maybe I’ll “catch up” sooner or later.
Sorry about Pfizer/Trump/Biden/Fauci/Daszak. I don’t love government, but I just love this country.
Can you blame me? https://t.co/AxivdhymsK
Feel free to remind me of all the stupid horrible things it has done. But loving your country as an adult means not turning away when you find out the full truth isn’t so rosy.
I don’t love my country as a child. You love it & it’s government through the shitty parts too. 🙏
In 1986, the @nsf secretly commissioned a study of future wages. It projected salaries of over $100K back then for new PhDs.
I’m not making this up: it called that “This pessimistic scenario” and erased the demand curves to try to flood the market via IMMACT90.
Come: Debunk me.
In the meantime, younger STEM PhDs, please don’t be angry or disappointed. Why not take the long years of cutting edge training at tax payer expense & visit @PandaExpress, where fast food can put you on the fast track to success & financial freedom! 🙏
So nuts.
- followthesilence
This is echolocation: listen for the silence. They will not debunk me. Why? Because it’s true. Come at the conspiracy theory @NSF & @theNASEM. All you have to do is cry bullshit, and we are on!
Let’s have some fun. You are, after all, our most prestigious science institutions.🧬
This account has > 1/2M followers & is spreading a wild conspiracy story that the US science establishment destroyed US STEM careers through market tampering. It’s housed at @nberpubs & @INETeconomics. It sews distrust in science & government. Debunk me @APFactCheck, @PolitiFact.
The @nsf conspired AGAiNST the scientists. With whom? The National Academy of Science through the Government University Industry Research Round Table (@GUIRR). I have been invited four times to the NAS to present this. It is an out and out conspiracy.
Debunk this claim @snopes.
As you know: no one will report but no one will debunk either. Welcome to the Boomer/Silent Generation distopia.
I still can’t get over that we don’t have a functioning free press. Thanks.
- dystopia
Also, feel free not to give a shit as we mask up injecting ourselves and our families against a virus that likely comes from the same exact people with almost no independent secure PhDs to stand up to the gerontocracy at @NIH, NIAID. That’s the cost of cheap science.
If you look closely at O’Rourke’s evolution, he was an infantile 60s Marxist who woke up to the evils of communism & collectivism. But his journey ignored those Liberals who hate communism as much as conservatives and he lumped both groups together under the “Sanctimonious Left.”
Many of us Liberals are not particularly impressed with our own human goodness. Nor do we harbor childlike utopian visions. We just believe in tolerance, free speech, patriotism, and a bit more support for working families to undo a bit of luck making markets more fair for all.
In short, his best work focused us on the threat of HIS wing of the Left which was to become “Wokeness”. He was a Paul Revere type warning us all “The Wokeness is coming.” But many conservatives tend to drop this distinction between moderate liberals and cryptic communists.
Where there’s smoke, there is often an unethical colleague exploiting public ignorance of professional skulduggery.
In science & academic treachery, there’s a hell of a delta between smoke and fire. Time to end the Bull Market in personal destruction of dissenting professionals. https://t.co/kiRSvqFuLK
Show me a person who says “Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.” and I’ll show you someone who doesn’t understand cooking, chemistry or the difference between smoke point, flash point & fire point.
Or someone knowledgeable, hunting their colleagues & abusing professional ethics.🙏
I clearly do not understand the argument for Donald Trump as the only answer to Democratic Party madness.
There’s an entire universe of younger, saner, more reasonable, less tainted individuals. Veterans who served with humility and patriotism that is self-evident for example.🤷♀️
@Cernovich False.
@Cernovich Over Biden? Well Dan Crenshaw, Liz Cheney, Rand Paul to begin with.
I don’t think Biden is qualified by virtue of his age and cognitive decline.
@the_m1k3_m0 @Cernovich Not a Republican.
@Cernovich But in general, I don’t believe in where things are. I don’t believe Jan 6 was just a party that got out of control. I don’t believe we can retreat from security responsibilities. I don’t believe woke is no big deal. I don’t believe in elderly commanders in chief.
@Cernovich The only things that fly are either neocon. Or America First retreats. And neither work. Either pro market or pro socialism/communism. And that doesn’t work.
We have chased my types out of the game. We need people with balance and that has fallen out of favor. So I don’t play.
There are only so many times I can say it: you’ve asked science to make others wealthy, secure & free as you subjected scientists to a life of precariousness, peer review, groupthink, virtue signaling & bureaucracy.
The madness ends when you stop whining about PhDs w/ 2nd homes. https://t.co/GvMf1JWGpc
This is the reason you can’t get to the bottom of this virus. Where it came from. What is up with the CDC. The WHO. The @EcoHealthNYC. The mandates. The relative risk profile of vaccines.
You killed academic freedom & flooded their market. What did you expect exactly? Science?🤷♀️
Word to the wise: You do not want your scientists with fungible skills dependent on institutions/Fauci/Collins/NIH/NSF for their year to year ability to take care of their families.
This has been up for 20 years. You aren’t getting it:
Should we allow Nancy Pelosi to invest in Pfizer and Pfizer to establish a nonprofit charitable organization to contribute to @EcoHealthNYC and @TheLancet? That way we can get capital appreciation through recurring Pharma revenue!
Q: Have we all gone completely insane?
It’s interesting just how completely the idea of science as part of a non market long term agreement has disappeared.
Let’s make sure we figure out Dark Matter and the Origin of Life by Q3 so we can raise a Series A.
We definitely need to look into Science as a Service in crowdfunded CRISPR using NFTs to use the wisdom of crowds in worldwide BioHacking competitions to take advantage of Regulatory arbitrage with floating labs in international waters.
Let’s f***ing go! #amiright ?!!!!!
“Ok Boomer”? Got it. Have fun.
I confess I think many/most of you are crazy. You wanna play “Sophie’s choice” all day long. Between “Burn it all down”, “Markets in everything.” “Exit over voice.” “WEF” “Woke” “Virgin vs Chad” “Libertarian” “Anti-Natalism” “BTC Fixes this.” “Web3” “NeoCon revisited.” all fail.
What works? Not much.
Family. Moderation. Tolerance. Institutions with culture. Markets. Limited government and modest regulation. Respect. Not sexy is it?
But two generations of geriatric leaders stealing everything and boom: we don’t believe in 1000s of years of experience.
Should we play MAGA vs WOKE against CCP? “Fourth turning” with Nukes? Democracy with corporate journalism? Virology without hearings? A corporate internet without free speech? Bots and humans on common footing? SuperPACs?
This is just all so stupid. We all know how it ends. 🙏
“Fields of Gold” as sung by Eva Cassidy.
There is beautiful video of Mick Fleetwood telling the story of her unwillingness to let the record companies craft her into something marketable. We are so lucky that she rejected the market and its ‘wisdom’:
Having been both in Academe and the private sector, I have learned something I cannot communicate:
A) The more you push science towards markets, the more it fails.
B) The more marketization makes science fail, the more capitalists want to starve it.
Increasingly, the solution to every science problem is seen through markets.
X-prizes for science. Science DAOs. Crowdfunding for science. Micro grants. Science as a startup.
Anything *other* than recognizing our previous wisdom of insulating science & scientists from markets.
The answer to getting science to work again is a smaller scientific community with the ability to hold minority positions for decades if necessary.
Academic freedom was a lot less expensive when it was guaranteed by institutions. Now it requires FU money from which it’s starved.
For Mutually Assured Destruction (or MAD) to work, all parties have to first understand Assured Destruction.
You also need to make sure the market for tools of brinksmanship (e.g. armaments) doesn't capture the decision making structure to sell product.
You need highly intelligent public spirited leaders of supreme discipline & confidence. And you may need to rotate them often.
You also need some religious folks who believe that god's gift of life **must** go on. But also anti-religious folks who temper fatalistic talk of armageddon, judgement day, reward, martyrdom and rapture. And they have to work together.
You need a small number of players.
Then you have to make sure there are no Nihilists with power who don't care much what happens.
You also need agents who don't think war is exciting and gives their empty lives purpose.
And no decision makers who believe in magical thinking "That will never happen because..."
You also need an enlightened wealthy class that doesn't focus on building bunkers anticipating a limited exchange, so that it focuses on stabilizing the planet on which it thrives.
You also need leaders who understand a common intellectual language with no 'false cognates'.
You may need an electorate that isn't swayed by instagram to pressure leaders into triggering catastrophic treaty obligations.
Etc
So it's not that MAD won't work in theory. The theory under which it can work is becoming increasingly implausible.
It now can't work in practice.
One reason that tech executives are so wealthy is that they lie about shortages to get government to flood their specific labor markets, and so don’t have to make their STEM workers truly wealthy. They make STEM workers weak instead.
I wish it weren’t true. But it is what it is. https://t.co/TqKuQsv8jq
For the nth time:
The US Scientific Labor Market has been totally & deliberately rigged from 1986 on. As in completely ‘fixed’.
For whom? Employers/PRC/Boomers.
By whom? @theNASciences, GUIRR, AAU and @nsf.
Against whom: Scientists. Science. The US.
I pretty much detest everything about communism. But I understand it. Every time a billionaire “Technologist” whines about talent or opines about success, I think about the 2nd class scientist families they destroyed. Now at Zero compensation.
These ain’t capitalists after all.
What will happen next? You’ll read this story. You’ll scratch your head “Needs PhD for 0 compensation??”
Then a few days later you will read another story about how the US is falling behind in STEM and the workplace of tomorrow needs H-1B visas & technical skills.
In a picture: https://t.co/053eZEojCG
If you take the most productive and accomplished sector of your society, and you methodically, intentionally, consciously and deliberately destroy its labor market through exploitation, you aren’t a capitalist. You’re just an evil person.
And you’ll breed revolutions eventually.
@DrBrianKeating Eagle Offset Markets: Clearly we can just sacrifice our children to save the bald eagles lost.
Crisis averted. Everyone wins.
Humans.
How many miracles, from markets to metallurgy to Maxwell’s equations to differential geometry to democracy to logic gates to WiFi,…had to be interconnected to send this to us all?
Let’s find out whether the cosmos is traversable before self-extinguishing over nothing. https://t.co/CIrVXXtXrs
True, we may be (functionally) trapped here in this solar system. That is possible.
Or we may be one single insight away from easily voyaging the universe.
That’s why I’m at the @SETIInstitute today. Or working w/ @GalileoProject1 tomorrow. Because we may be one insight away…
Could you say that again? I’m probably mishearing you.
@noUpside Thanks! Good to know.
That makes it far worse. I was unaware of this video while we were lampooning people with this concern. We had been told that concerns of anyone putting such things in injections was crazy talk. Great news!
Now updating. Let’s get the word out Renee.
@noUpside “Fomenting paranoia.” Uh. You can apologize for that.
I think you may not understand. There is a Principal - Agent problem. The public doesn’t know that this is viewed as a legitimate current technology by Pfizer.
All I said above was “I think I must be mishearing.”
@noUpside If it is already in a small capsule, than it is an issue of miniaturization rather than “paranoia”. I didn’t say it was in injections.
@noUpside Renee, I don’t think you’re getting it again. The inference comes from what is described: a method of potentially involuntary compliance/surveillance that can bypass patient consent from within the body of anyone accepting medication by any means subject only to miniaturization.
@noUpside This has nothing to do with the date. Nor schizophrenics. Nor to do with the first means of delivery to be brought to market. Nor paranoia. Nor anti-vaxxers. Nor “conspiracy theory”.
He is describing what people fear in favorable terms. Wake up. You need to apologize.
@noUpside “Fomenting paranoia”.
Let me put it in stark terms: when experts and or institutional officials assert that folks are paranoid, freakish, anti-scientific, unhinged, grifters, crackpots, etc., you aren’t merely asserting that you disagree with them. THEY HAVE TO HAVE ZERO MERIT.
@noUpside This says there *IS* merit to the fear. It’s not sci-fi. It’s not fiction. It’s a 100% legitimate concern. Not that it is true. But the concern is 100% legitimate.
Let’s focus on that. You don’t get to destroy lay people with legitimate fears. That’s not ethical. Is that clear?
For it is only through beautiful partnership between capital & labor that this American miracle was accomplished. And I for one will toil ceaselessly to restore confidence in the long term stable sustainability of innovation and growth lifting all ships on a tide of prosperity.”
“Allowing labor to exploit market tightness is a short term fix. We must find a delicate balance between the needs of employers with those of employees reassuring both the holders of job creating capital and working Americans that our best days lie ahead of us via steady growth.”
It’s important not to say this if you’re goal is to disguise class warfare as technocratic patriotism. What is this, amateur hour?
Try: “America was built on a spirit of openness. I for one welcome the best and brightest minds & hardest working hands to come to American shores.”
You’re not supposed to say “Our policy is to increase economic inequality any and every time there is even a hint of a possibility that workers would gain back any lost leverage at the bargaining table with employers that has taken over 50 years to erode.”
It just looks bad. 🙏
Remember: no American can possibly oppose the infinite pure costless goodness of flooding labor markets and pushing out labor supply curves for any reason whatsoever other than a pathological hatred of immigrants.
[How does this transparent lie still work? It’s amazing to me.]
In the interests of all who want to know the origin of the COVID-19 virus.
This author discusses her group’s findings suggesting Zoonotic origin at the market and not from the lab:
Apparently, we just achieved “settled science” for COVID origins.
[I remind us all that an “outbreak at the Wet market” “natural origin” “not designed” “not a bioweapon” and “nothing to do with a virology lab” are all VERY different things that keep, oddly, getting conflated.]
My personal take on this:
There’s a new science version of Motte & Bailey. The Bailey is the claim that this is settled, it happened naturally in the market and that no lab was involved. The Motte is simply that the market was the epicenter of the early pandemic.
M=B’ but M≠B. https://t.co/8kVGDFLEV5
Why do this? So if pressed you can quote the Motte to sound like the Bailey. “Well Jane, the science is just pretty definitive here that the epicenter of the early epidemic was the market and not the lab, despite what grifting right-wing conspiracy theorists on the internet say.”
Yes. That’s where we are as adults. It’s hard to believe. This disease has killed millions and we are stuck playing word games of gotcha.
I can’t believe it. It’s like nothing works anymore even with the planet on the line, it doesn’t matter. We just play this game infinitely.🙏
Then the dissenting scientists will say “Wait. No one never said that the lab was the epicenter of the early large scale outbreak. That’s a total strawman!”
Then the troll accounts come in: “Somebody’s hurt that their home brewed analysis didn’t hold up. Boo hoo Clown! ROTFL!”
Said differently, when law, culture, religion, journalism & science temper markets, those markets are among the most powerful tools we have for human betterment. But when markets can capture ANYTHING that tempers them, they may do exactly the opposite, and no less efficiently.
The markets are still working. Religion, government, politics, journalism, academics seem not to be.
I used to think “Thank god we still have markets.” but now think that MAY be a serious error on my part. It may be that markets need to be tempered by just that which is failing.
Would you be interested in discussing an entire field of economic experts laughing for 5-8 years at those of us who tried to warn the world about the impending danger of Mortgage Backed Securities during the “Great Moderation”?
"I've never seen anything as bad as the determination of a lot of people to say it's a recession," Krugman said. "It's above and beyond anything I've ever seen." -@paulkrugman
Would you like to talk about the Boskin Commission & the @BLS_gov pretending to move to a COLA for CPI?
You’re not being truthful about economics.
I’m sorry. But at a purely technical level, you are just not being truthful about markets, economics and economists. I say this without an axe to grind as a huge promoter of your earlier work when you were trying to understand the 🌎.
Would you be interested in discussing the treatment of George Borjas by economists for pointing out that Immigration actually carries costs & redistributes wealth rather than a miracle free lunch that simply cannot do anything harmful?
Etc. Etc.
Because that is all much worse.
Five years ago this August in our living room. Had no idea my work colleague @bgmasters was going to be winning the Republican senate Primary!
While very different politically, Blake and I have agreed for YEARS that the labor market shouldn’t require 2 incomes to raise a family. https://t.co/TWiEIGWFU3
@SgtHulka8 @bgmasters Thanks for this. Sorry for your unimaginable loss. Hope those kids give you many years of joy.
Jeffrey Epstein said to me directly that he ran a massive currency trading hedge fund.
I don’t believe this is true and it is a decidable proposition. It is unfakeable because market impact can’t be faked retroactively. No one wants to break this story by asking for the records.
If I turn out to be right that Jeffrey Epstein was not a currency trading hedge fund manager, the next question will be who helped him set up an elaborate contrived backstory. No individual scammer could do this. Why do journalists repeat the myth of “Jeffrey Epstein, financier”?
@s3cp256k1 Yes. I met him once before his arrest in Florida. And?
You are insane. Blocked.
Let me say the brutal truth: Oddly, the problem is NOT our journalists!! The story is repeatedly spiked *above* the level of the journalists. That endangers people like @elizableu, @martyrmade, @joerogan etc who take the risks to keep this story alive. https://t.co/ZwmREEFFc1
@openplains12 @elizableu @martyrmade @joerogan Then tag him: @Cernovich.
Also appreciate @TimJDillon’s efforts here. And @jkbjournalist, etc. We have a few taking this risk.
@elizableu It’s not your job. I already asked FBI directly at a meeting at its Los Angeles headquarters. We may need journalistic protections and resources to push this further.
@elizableu Let me say what happens with that: our journalists start researching the hedge fund records story, but are then told by editors “No one cares about this story. The world has moved on. You would need more documentation. This sounds like a conspiracy theory…” ad infinitum.