Twin Nuclei Problem
Eric has explained the Twin Nuclei Problem across multiple podcast appearances, and is an idea he wishes to have animated.
Eric's Explanation from Discord
In 1945 we ended WWII with atomic devices. This was the end of conventional massive armed conflict.
Between 1952-54 we cracked the twin nuclei of atoms (Hydrogen fusion bombs) and cells (3-d structure of DNA).
We now live on borrowed time determined largely by luck, growth and the memory of WWII.
Our growth ran out, then our memory of WWII. We now live on Luck.
This has created a world wide epidemic of magical thinking that nothing truly bad can still happen.
During the 1945-1972 Epoch, growth was economically high, stable, broadly distributed, technologically lead.
During this period Derek de Solla Price discovered that science was on an unsustainable exponential.
He published 'Science Since Babylon' (1959?) predicting an end to scientific growth.
Science is upstream of technology which is upstream of markets. And the predicted end came around 1972.
During the 1945-1972 era, institutions built in assumptions about their future growth.
Those Embedded Growth Obligations or E.G.0.s are now unsustainable.
This has caused nearly all institutions to be headed by people willing to lie to keep the institutions alive.
There are a small number of fields where growth kept going (E.g. semiconductors, communications, and their outgrowths).
Mostly the world stagnated by the standards of the past around 1972.
Between 1972 and 2008 a long period of managed fake growth took place to disguise the end of the post WWII growth regime.
This was called, downsizing, deregulation, mergers/aquisition, globalization, 'best brightest' immigration, securitization, financialization. Etc.
Starting in the 1990s this Davos style economics began to result in massive wealth inequality in the developed world under a fig leaf of idealism.
By 2008, fake growth became unsustainable and the world woke up from a crazy dream of "The Great Moderation' to sanity.
It was that sanity that made the markets "go crazy."
Since 2008, no one really believes in market absolutism nor in government fairness nor in banking. But, oddly, we can't form new economic theories.
This zombie period lasted from 2008 until 2016 where the Trump and Brexit votes shocked the rent-seeking elite.
We are now trying to have new ideas. It is very difficult for them to form given the level of inequality.
As for the decision trees: if humanity is to have a future greater than 500 years with fusion devices and other horrors, what must happen?
A) A great run of luck must occur.
B) An outbreak of unprecidented wisdom happens.
C) We upload into silicon.
D) We stabilize the environment and grow all markets so no one has reason to want.
E) We move to the moon, mars and a few spacestations to diversity which is sufficient.
F) We escape the solar system with new physics.
G) We establish universal surveilance so no surprises can occur.
H) We terminate shortly.
Note that all of the above....ALL...are crazy. There are no non-crazy possibilities.
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