Inflation: Difference between revisions
(Created page with "{{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1487123287830253570 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=We should talk about national security and the Money Supply even before we talk about national security and crypto. We should talk about CPI inflation #s and index number methodology at @BLS_gov before we talk about crypto threats. M2 monetary aggregate...") Â |
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|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | |content=Great question. [[Inflation]] is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | ||
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|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | |content=Great question. [[Inflation]] is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | ||
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|content=I have heard you say inflation looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning | |content=I have heard you say [[Inflation|inflation]] looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning | ||
|timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | |timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | ||
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|content=Q2: Why is inflation a field on LOOP spaces of preferences? | |content=Q2: Why is [[Inflation|inflation]] a field on LOOP spaces of preferences? | ||
A2: Tastes are seasonal. In USA âWe never spill Egg Nog on our bikinis.â What you both want & price HAS to be made seasonal to avoid the Cycling Problem (Holonomy) in index number thy. So we have LOOPS of tastes/prices. | A2: Tastes are seasonal. In USA âWe never spill Egg Nog on our bikinis.â What you both want & price HAS to be made seasonal to avoid the Cycling Problem (Holonomy) in index number thy. So we have LOOPS of tastes/prices. | ||
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|content=A2 Continued: If you donât make loops of tastes and prices, you will show meaningless regular inflation if prices, quantities and tastes Circle back to their initial Jan 1 values. This confuses economic experts (Like Diewert) when it comes to chain/path indicesâŠwhich is up next. | |content=A2 Continued: If you donât make loops of tastes and prices, you will show meaningless regular [[Inflation|inflation]] if prices, quantities and tastes Circle back to their initial Jan 1 values. This confuses economic experts (Like Diewert) when it comes to chain/path indicesâŠwhich is up next. | ||
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | |timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | ||
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|content=Q3: Why is inflation a field on Path Spaces of Looped Preferences/Prices? | |content=Q3: Why is [[Inflation|inflation]] a field on Path Spaces of Looped Preferences/Prices? | ||
A3: Loosely, Index number theory really died w/ work of Ragnar Frisch (rightly) destroying Irving Fischerâs misguided work on axiomatic tests for bilateral (2 period) mechanical index numbers. Hereâs why. | A3: Loosely, Index number theory really died w/ work of Ragnar Frisch (rightly) destroying Irving Fischerâs misguided work on axiomatic tests for bilateral (2 period) mechanical index numbers. Hereâs why. | ||
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|content=Q4: Why do you say indexes are Group-Valued? Isnât inflation just a number? | |content=Q4: Why do you say indexes are Group-Valued? Isnât [[Inflation|inflation]] just a number? | ||
A4: Here goes. In the most famous case you *can* get away with a number. But that 8.9% style [[CPI]] nonsense is actually secretly a 1x1 matrix in GL(1,R). And that actually matters! Why? B/c Non-linearity. | A4: Here goes. In the most famous case you *can* get away with a number. But that 8.9% style [[CPI]] nonsense is actually secretly a 1x1 matrix in GL(1,R). And that actually matters! Why? B/c Non-linearity. | ||
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|content=A4 Cont.: Only 1x1 matrices commute. NxN matrices do not! And if A.B isnât B.A, the system goes non-linear. So if you have 2 countries with 2 currencies, the commutative case doesnât work at all. You need to use Freeman Dysonâs system of Time Ordered Products to save inflation. | |content=A4 Cont.: Only 1x1 matrices commute. NxN matrices do not! And if A.B isnât B.A, the system goes non-linear. So if you have 2 countries with 2 currencies, the commutative case doesnât work at all. You need to use Freeman Dysonâs system of Time Ordered Products to save [[Inflation|inflation]]. | ||
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|content=Q5: So letâs see. Inflation is a field like temperature. But a field in a fiber bundle over âŸ-dimensional path spaces of loops of preferences/prices valued in non-commuting groups leading to non linearities not addressed by economists? What about actual geography!â | |content=Q5: So letâs see. [[Inflation]] is a field like temperature. But a field in a fiber bundle over âŸ-dimensional path spaces of loops of preferences/prices valued in non-commuting groups leading to non linearities not addressed by economists? What about actual geography!â | ||
A5: Fair. đ | A5: Fair. đ | ||
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|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | |content=Great question. [[Inflation]] is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | ||
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|content=I have heard you say inflation looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning | |content=I have heard you say [[Inflation|inflation] looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning | ||
|timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | |timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | ||
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Revision as of 03:22, 23 January 2026
We should talk about national security and the Money Supply even before we talk about national security and crypto.
We should talk about CPI inflation #s and index number methodology at @BLS_gov before we talk about crypto threats.
M2 monetary aggregate from the St Louis Fed:
Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
I have heard you say inflation looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning
Q1: Why is it a field on Preferences?
A1: Because a true COLA is not an index on baskets (mechanical index) but on welfare derived from baskets (economic index). BLS misrepresents CPI being COLA-driven abusing work of Erwin Diewert on Superlative indices. A COLA prices WELFARE.
Q2: Why is inflation a field on LOOP spaces of preferences?
A2: Tastes are seasonal. In USA âWe never spill Egg Nog on our bikinis.â What you both want & price HAS to be made seasonal to avoid the Cycling Problem (Holonomy) in index number thy. So we have LOOPS of tastes/prices.
A2 Continued: If you donât make loops of tastes and prices, you will show meaningless regular inflation if prices, quantities and tastes Circle back to their initial Jan 1 values. This confuses economic experts (Like Diewert) when it comes to chain/path indicesâŠwhich is up next.
Q3: Why is inflation a field on Path Spaces of Looped Preferences/Prices?
A3: Loosely, Index number theory really died w/ work of Ragnar Frisch (rightly) destroying Irving Fischerâs misguided work on axiomatic tests for bilateral (2 period) mechanical index numbers. Hereâs why.
A3 Cont.: As Ken Arrow challenged us âFrisch showed we canât solve the bilateral index problem because a single agent at multiple points in time is *exactly* dual to multiple agents at a single instant of time. Which is exactly my âImpossibility Theoremâ in Social Choice. QED.â
A3 Cont.: Our response: âAh. That would be true but for 2 differences! First, Indices live in markets with *prices*. Our methods *donât* live in social choice voting paradigms. Second, agents evolve into their future selves via paths. Thereâs no âmorphing pathâ in social choice.â
A3 Cont.: âThis is why index numbers will one day be properly understood as parallel translation in Fiber Bundles wrt Economic Gauge Potentials. But Zoe doesnât become Cam morphing into Fatima when voting. So parallel transport is unavailable. Even in topological social choice.â
A4 Cont.: Only 1x1 matrices commute. NxN matrices do not! And if A.B isnât B.A, the system goes non-linear. So if you have 2 countries with 2 currencies, the commutative case doesnât work at all. You need to use Freeman Dysonâs system of Time Ordered Products to save inflation.
A4 Cont.: But even in the case of one Currency like the Dollar, economists donât get the group issue. True COLAs are valued in an *infinite* dimensional non-commutative group called DIFF_0(R^+) equivalent to increasing differentiable functions from 0â>⟠reparameterizing âUtilsâ.
Q5: So letâs see. Inflation is a field like temperature. But a field in a fiber bundle over âŸ-dimensional path spaces of loops of preferences/prices valued in non-commuting groups leading to non linearities not addressed by economists? What about actual geography!â
A5: Fair. đ
A5 Continued: Prices vary by zip code. So throw in a geographical map as a reward for getting to the end!
Just try to understand my bewilderment when @BLS_gov says 7.9% and everyone pretends that they arenât really raising taxes & slashing social security. Youâre being screwed.
Your life savings are being stolen through seignorage as you are being taxed into oblivion with your social Security beaten to a pulp. Meanwhile @paulkrugman and Robert Reich are playing with finger paints.
If you want help, do let me know. But I canât watch this massacre again.
Either do something to save yourselves or continue to sit & wait to be eaten by the Fed and @BLS_govâs fakely precise single number CPI.
Iâll debate ANYONE on this high enough up for you. But I canât watch & Iâm done w economist abuse & yelling at clouds.
Thanks for asking.đ
Note Added After Posting:
I responded to a question about proper index construction here. Would love to have Prof @RBReich thoughts. Maybe even a debate on CPI and measurement?
Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1589298124191043584
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=They have two black boxes. One is called CPI construction. One is called the Fed. The theory is a narrative. The narrative doesnât match the actions.
|thread=
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1589287901804007425
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
|quote=
{{Tweet
|image=invisi_college1-profile-s_fl5CzZ.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/invisi_college1/status/1589261786934493184
|name=invisible_college
|usernameurl=https://x.com/invisi_college1
|username=invisi_college1
|content=I have heard you say [[Inflation|inflation] looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning
|timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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And preference space is unknowable without just letting a free computation run. Anything else involves some humans telling other humans what their preferences must be.
Sure! And as Samuelson said, it may not even be integrable. And it may be that you are mixing stocks and flows. Etc. But then donât say you are implementing Konus COLAs while pretending that mumbling â superlative Index number are exact for flexible functional formsâ makes sense.
The main issue here is simply super invidious priestly bull shit used to cover the destruction of peopleâs lives. Thanks!
Wow, I'm going to have to Google half of that. I feel too dumb for this conversation. Am I reading correctly that the above tweet is sarcasm, and you're saying there's a deeper intellectual problem here?
|timestamp=4:46 PM · Nov 6, 2022 }}
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