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 <blockquote>
-''Now I want to say, first of all, that I have absolutely no special inside knowledge of the situation. I know people who knew him and I met him once, but it is not like I have any particular line on information from any particularly interesting source about the situation. Furthermore, I don’t think that I’m going to be using any special kind of analysis that is known only to me, but I did want to talk to people about '''Responsible Conspiracy Theorizing'''. That is, in the minds of many, people believe that conspiracy theorists are people like Alex Jones, people who are spouting all sorts of crazy ideas-some of which might have some grain of truth in them, but in general it feels like an exercise in talking to the tin foil hat crowd. Now, I don’t know much about Alex Jones; perhaps he’s better than I think he is, but what I want to talk about is a different kind of conspiracy theorizing. So, without further ado, welcome to this episode of The Portal on the subject of Jeffrey Epstein.''
+''Now I want to say, first of all, that I have absolutely no special inside knowledge of the situation. I know people who knew him and I met him once, but it is not like I have any particular line on information from any particularly interesting source about the situation. Furthermore, I don’t think that I’m going to be using any special kind of analysis that is known only to me, but I did want to talk to people about [[Responsible Conspiracy Theorizing|responsible conspiracy theorizing]]. That is, in the minds of many, people believe that conspiracy theorists are people like Alex Jones, people who are spouting all sorts of crazy ideas-some of which might have some grain of truth in them, but in general it feels like an exercise in talking to the tin foil hat crowd.
-- '''Eric Weinstein''' on [[ep25|The Portal #25]] on March 7, 2020
+''Now, I don’t know much about Alex Jones; perhaps he’s better than I think he is, but what I want to talk about is a different kind of conspiracy theorizing. So, without further ado, welcome to this episode of The Portal on the subject of Jeffrey Epstein.
+''So the first thing I want is to be relatively clear: I’m somebody who believes that there is a fair amount of organization behind the scenes-usually of a relatively low level of organization-that is unknown to the people who are watching TV or listening to, let’s say, NPR on the radio. And at various times I’ve dug more deeply into various stories, and so I want you to have some idea of my history in the space.
+''In the 1980s and 1990s, I became very active in believing that the so called STEM shortage of scientists and engineers that was claimed by the policy research and analysis division of the [[National Science Foundation (NSF)|National Science Foundation]], was in fact a conspiracy in order to make life easier for employers who would be facing American scientists with an ability to bargain, and make higher wage demands; and that the National Academy of Sciences and National Science Foundation interceded on the behalf of employers, which was tampering in the labor market in an absolutely vital sector-resulting in the [[IMMACT90|Immigration Act of 1990, or IMMACT90]], as it was called.
+''At that point, I also became aware of what I have termed the [[Borjas Rectangle Theory]]: that is that employers generally, in free market economies, when they’re complaining about labor shortages, are actually trying to transfer wealth from labor to capital-complaining instead that there is a small inefficiency that needs to be rectified, which we might [in turn] call the Harberger Triangle. So that is, employers claim that there’s a small inefficiency, but in [point of] fact they’re seeking large transfer payments from the vulnerable to the well-heeled. I also believe that NAFTA and the Free Trade Agreement from the 1990s, was a kind of conspiracy supported by the economics establishment of the United States; that they knew that in fact free trade was not a freebie. It was not in fact a rising tide that lifted all boats, but was in fact, again, a transfer, which was claimed to be a pure good for everyone. This is the difference between something called the Kaldor-Hicks objective function and the Pareto objective function.
+''I also believed that [[String Theory]] was largely a desperation measure in physics that was sold to the world to buy time, when in fact the field of theoretical physics was failing. I also claimed that the [[Boskin Commission]], formed by Packwood and Moynihan in the mid-1990s, was a kind of conspiracy to transfer, actually, a trillion dollars, by using the fact that Social Security payments are indexed to inflation, as well as tax brackets being indexed to inflation; so that if you could show that the CPI was overstated and you could reduce the [[CPI]], you could transfer millions without having to touch the so called “third rail” of American politics.
+''This brings us to the two trading fortunes in New York City that, during the first decade of the new millennium, made no sense to me. And those were Bernie Madoff, then referred to as the “Jewish T-Bill”, and [[Jeffrey Epstein]]. In the case of Madoff, I made a wrong guess. I believed that Bernie Madoff was frontrunning a traditional business that he held using actual orders that he knew were being placed, and in his hedge fund [he] was effectively cheating-based on the inside information he had from a legitimate business, in an illegitimate business. I goofed, and I was wrong. In fact, he was operating a pyramid scheme. It didn’t occur to me.
+'''Eric Weinstein''', March 7, 2020, on [[25: The Construct: Jeffrey Epstein|The Portal Ep #25]]
 </blockquote>
 == On X ==
-{{#widget:Tweet|id=1164214855831703552}}
+=== 2019 ===
-{{#widget:Tweet|id=1286691199701536775}}
+{{Tweet
+|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
+|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1164214855831703552
+|name=Eric Weinstein
+|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
+|username=EricRWeinstein
+|content=I would love to debate fellow IDW member @michaelshermer on '''responsible conspiracy theorizing''' for adults. Could be a blast. Michael you are welcome on the portal any time to discuss this.
+|thread=
+{{Tweet
+|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
+|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1164214078962688000
+|name=Eric Weinstein
+|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
+|username=EricRWeinstein
+|content=Wait, what? This is a totally adorable 2019 tweet! Be sure to tell, @1971Film, @carlbernstein, @danielsheehan45, @HarryMarkopolos, @ErinBrockovich, etc. and let me know how you make out. But be sure to read all documents at: https://www.industrydocuments.ucsf.edu/tobacco/about/ first.
+This *never* goes away.
+|quote=
+{{Tweet
+|image=yasherz-profile.jpg
+|nameurl=https://x.com/yasherz/status/1163210988612722688
+|name=YashMMAnHVAC
+|usernameurl=https://x.com/yasherz
+|username=yasherz
+|content=Conspiracy theories are there for people who can't handle or solve real world problems.
+|timestamp=10:08 PM · Aug 18, 2019
+}}
+|timestamp=4:34 PM · Aug 21, 2019
+}}
+|timestamp=4:37 PM · Aug 21, 2019
+}}
+=== 2020 ===
+{{Tweet
+|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
+|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1286691199701536775
+|name=Eric Weinstein
+|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
+|username=EricRWeinstein
+|content=I am looking forward to making a LOT of apologies. Nothing would make me happier as a '''responsible conspiracy theorist'''.
+I have been told of metallic samples with strange mixtures of elements not found in nature by respected professors in STEM and did not know what to believe.
+|timestamp=3:54 PM · Jul 24, 2020
+}}
+=== 2022 ===
+{{Tweet
+|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
+|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088679665946624
+|name=Eric Weinstein
+|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
+|username=EricRWeinstein
+|content=[[Morals|Moral]]: some people seem to see meaning &amp; pattern everywhere. Others seem to demand proof because they believe that it’s all likely our imaginations. Don’t be like those groups of people.
+Take on the true burden of trying to sort out what is real but hidden vs what is imagined.🙏
+|thread=
+{{Tweet
+|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
+|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088653757730820
+|name=Eric Weinstein
+|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
+|username=EricRWeinstein
+|content=The city of Aix-en-Provence is not without an architectural…
+|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022
+|media1=ERW-X-post-1550088653757730820-FYMFaaJWAAE_oa1.jpg
+}}
+{{Tweet
+|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
+|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088659600396291
+|name=Eric Weinstein
+|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
+|username=EricRWeinstein
+|content=…sense of humor.
+|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022
+|media1=ERW-X-post-1550088659600396291-FYMFa6-XEAAwa1m.jpg
+}}
+{{Tweet
+|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
+|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088666810294273
+|name=Eric Weinstein
+|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
+|username=EricRWeinstein
+|content=…but then in Aix, once you see one AIX or X reference, you start seeing things everywhere that may or not be real.
+|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022
+|media1=ERW-X-post-1550088666810294273-FYMFbLWWIAAbVEp.jpg
+|media2=ERW-X-post-1550088666810294273-FYMFbLYXoAE7yvv.jpg
+|media3=ERW-X-post-1550088666810294273-FYMFbLYXkAEw3mg.jpg
+}}
+{{Tweet
+|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
+|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088676356538370
+|name=Eric Weinstein
+|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
+|username=EricRWeinstein
+|content=This is a simple model of what goes wrong in most models of “conspiracy theorizing”. I don’t know how to say that the building pictured is almost certainly an “architectural conspiracy” to spell AIX while the gate is not. I have no idea about the crossed metal beams.
+|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022
+|media1=ERW-X-post-1550088666810294273-FYMFbLYXkAEw3mg.jpg
+|media2=ERW-X-post-1550088676356538370-FYMFbtoX0AEaEyd.jpg
+|media3=ERW-X-post-1550088676356538370-FYMFbtsXEAImMpm.jpg
+}}
+|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022
+}}
+=== 2024 ===
+{{Tweet
+|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
+|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1828467697312731195
+|name=Eric Weinstein
+|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
+|username=EricRWeinstein
+|content=There is an old suite of ideas from a different time:
+What appears to be coordinated is actually emergent.
+What appears to be malice is actually incompetence.
+What appears to be a pattern is generally random.
+What appears to be doable outside of markets isn’t worth attempting because it can’t be coordinated and/or it is against human nature and/or has too many unintended consequences.
+——
+When enough people were educated to believe that suite as a sign of membership in the sophisticated elite, it then became possible to weaponize those ideas because they all shared a hidden feature: enervation.
+People too sophisticated to believe in conspiracies, blame, patterns or the possibility of change will not only tend to do nothing, but they will tend to ensure that nothing can be coordinated around them except by narrow self interest. Which means markets/commerce/business is the only thing left.
+In this clip, “Is Google trying to influence the 2024 election.” Chris is struggling to point out that it doesn’t require a conspiracy. Of course that is true.
+But it is much more helpful to notice that if you have a portfolio of explanations and with allocations to emergence vs coordination, it would be insane to have a zero allocation to conspiracy.
+[[Morals|Moral]]: Learn how to be a [[Responsible Conspiracy Theorizing|responsible conspiracy theorist]]. There are no lizard people. But there are sure a lot of back channels and algorithms you know nothing about.
+NOTE: Zuckerberg’s letter pointing to such a coordination in an earlier election appeared after this was taped. So…
+{{#widget:YouTube|id=bWEGi0cF23k}}
+|timestamp=4:20 PM · Aug 27, 2024
+}}
 == Examples of Unearthed Conspiracies ==
-* [[The Barack Obama Senior Story]]
+* [[The Barack Obama Senior Harvard Story]]
 * [[Boskin Commission]]
 * [[The Swift-and-Devastating-Takedown Story]]
@@ Line 69: / Line 220: @@
 * [[Jessupization]]
 * [[Law of Gaslighting]]
+* [[Map the Silences]]
 * [[Neo-Debunker]]
 * [[Nothing Burger]]
@@ Line 74: / Line 226: @@
 * [[Prebunked Malinformation]]
 * [[Seberging]]
-* [[The Invisible World is First Detected by the Visible World's Failure to Close]]
+* [[The Invisible World is First Detected by the Visible World’s Failure to Close]]
 * [[Tuskegee Principle]]
 * [[Universal Institutional Betrayal]]