Bitcoin
2017
Tired of âBitcoin gains in value!â headlines?
Try this: âAgainst a mysterious world-wide low-grade revolution in the industrialized world, the dollar & other violence backed fiat currency continued their collective plunge against math backed Bitcoin.â
Note: Iâm *not* a Bitcoin evangelist & I donât pretend to know the future. I do know of other ways to view this event that must be explored.
@MikeFrench13 @tommartell I have no doubt that there will be collapse(s). Perhaps many. Bitcoin may well even be destroyed. Read it again. Itâs not implying what you seem to be inferring.
@MikeFrench13 @tommartell Iâm fine with that. Thanks for your candor.
@kylerow I don't think there is any question that there will be 'implosions'. I also don't think there's much question that crypto-structures are here to stay, evolve and grow no matter what happens to Bitcoin.
2018
The rising & falling of the BTC to USD exchange rate appears to have zero positive or negative impact on my estimation of crypto's future.
Why? Because the miracle is the *existence* of the BTCUSD rate nearly 10yrs after the fact, despite posing obvious threats to nation-states.
1/ The Christmas Thread.
First off, Merry Xmas to all.
Iâm asking for your help. I want to know whether any of you know about any quiet working groups or meetings involving but not limited to Visa/MC/PayPal/etc working on the issues of âpopulismâ/âradicalizationâ as euphemisms.
2/ This would be organized by by some group like CFR, NAS or some other blue chip institution. It would be looking to figure out how to handle the âproblemsâ of popular nullification of institutional objectives. In short it would view Brexit, Trump and restrictionism as âhateâ.
3/ This quiet meeting would bring together the major âstakeholdersâ(?) which would not include the public. The twin problems the meeting would actually be trying to solve are âfree speechâ and âdemocratic choiceâ which the public generally doesnât want solved at all.
4/ The meeting would explore the question of how to use the existing anti-terror programs & platform level controls to handle garden variety dissent contributing to popular nullification as if it were âhate speechâ, which it would claim was akin to, or a gateway for, terror.
5/ Iâm not asking b/c I have any information that such a meeting occurred. I, in fact, have NO such information. However, I am well aware of how coordinated action has been made to look more âemergentâ, in the past & I now think weâre at a very dangerous juncture between 2018-20.
6/ This all now looks way off to me. Patreon is just the window through which we are glimpsing it. Why? Because theyâre clumsy. I fear weâre seeing some plan to reestablish the former power of the Gated Institutional Narrative well above Patreonâs paygrade using payment networks.
7/ I hope this is wrong. But if itâs correct, âimproperâ bitcoin transactions will start to carry serious criminal penalties. Further @jordanbpeterson will not deliver a technological fix as indicated.
Watch @datasociety, @nytimes coverage & payment channels.
Happy Holidays.
2019
My emphasis on "Sense-making" came from him directly as did the phrase. I don't know that I can or would recommend him to most sane people. Just know that he's out there and that when everyone has gone crazy, he is one of 5 or so people I call to make sure I'm not losing my mind.
I'd like to pay a debt or two. I have not always had the easiest relationship with @jgreenhall over the last 10 years and I don't always feel comfortable with his takes on things. But he is one of my "minds of last resort." Early on @wikileaks & @Bitcoin. Maddening on everything.
Thought those of you who put up with me should know; I've been thinking about this for a long time and it's time to boost @jgreenhall's signal: high variance, high insight, and high agency. Just know, he's not your indoor cat.
End.
@eigenboop @jgreenhall He can be amazing.
@TynnLyzzi @jgreenhall More than welcome.
@TearsOfKekistan @jgreenhall Jordan is very different to my way of thinking. More focused on emergent governance.
2020
Why stop there? Bitcoin wants to know.
2021
The Nakamoto Collective is almost the only forward looking thing I can think of. 11 years ago, I was unable to get our Prime Broker to take seriously that a small Hedge Fund wanted to speculate on some new concept. It was so cumbersome that I gave up and wrote an essay instead...
On #Bitcoinâs 12th birthday, Satoshi Nakamoto just became the 40th richest person in the world.
$34 billion and counting đ
Bitcoin at the time felt totally sketchy as a financial instrument as it was tied to contraband. But I didnât see it as money. If I did, I would be unimaginably wealthy if I didnât lose it all to digital theft, accidental loss or spending it . But I am an idiot in these matters.
So, Satoshis if youâre out there, you havenât needed fame or been eager to cash in. That is likely because you get where this is going. Please find me or someone who can explain how AU works as a wave in a bundle. Letâs build a new digital physics around local conservation laws.
And I hated the blockchain. What the Satoshi collective had done was genius. But there should be no ledger. Gold, as a wave, doesnât tell you where it has been. So instead I dreamed of meeting the Satoshis and getting rid of that damn implementation by using digital bundles.
Can you imagine. Some group was creating as-if physics inside the network. Bitcoins to me were âwavesâ propagating not in vector bundles, but on networked computers as substrate.
This was genius. I reasoned at the time that it didnât make sense to me as a medium of exchange.
The reason I was interested in it was more complex. If Bitcoin was digital gold, and gold was a quantum mechanical wave, then some group had created a:
1) Novel
2) Locally enforced
3) Digital
4) Conservation law
Called the blockchain. And money was but one thing it could be.
Thank you. For everything. And congratulations. Not on your wealth, but for giving us all the means of escape. For creating something truly new. And for having it up for for so long and proving the naysayers wrong. I have no words.
What you created wasnât money but hope. đ
I wrote this 11 years ago. I always thought youâd read it & come find me. You werenât rich then. You were either a government project, a collective or a lone genius. But you inspired me like little in our time. This was my attempt to get you to reach out:
I really appreciate this change in heart.
So much so that I want to reciprocate: BTC is one of the most important developments of our lives. I read Allenâs piece. Iâd like to engage your community as I take you all very seriously. But I donât think I am who you see me as being.
The important thing is that BTC is a hedge against the manipulation of the world by central banking, economists and corrupt institutions. If you can accept that it is not my religion I can accept that it is without peer among recent inventions: markets ARE the alternative to war.
Markets are the alternative to tyranny and central control. And having a digital gold is essential. I am not trying to save BTC. I am not trying to introduce a new alternative coin. I am worrying about tyranny and the blockchain as ledger. I am worried about what is to come.
Let us imagine that Governments wake up. That they realize that the way to control what that cannot control is violence. In such a situation, I donât want a record of all transfers. Even an anonymous record. Thatâs what I am on about. Perhaps that is misguided. If so: explain.
But telling me that Juan Maldacena is a genius for writing about gauge theory and markets and that I am a mere entertainer who needs to know is place is absurd. Funny actually.
Tell me bitcoiners: where do you think the great Juan Maldacena got this genius idea? Think about it..
Iâve been on your side...w gauge theory...since well before BTC. Early 1990s. The goal is to disintermediate the institutional players to liberate markets to avoid tyranny. So running me down using bullshit to score points is anti-Bitcoin in spirit. Makes us all look weak & dumb.
Anyway, I would love to learn from your community as well as to share what I know. And I am not looking to introduce a âshitcoinâ.
But a request: letâs cut the bs displays? Itâs corroding us all and we now have a common threat in central banking & rigged markets to defeat. đ
I want to apologize to @EricRWeinstein for my dirty little shitpost. He responded in a typically forthright manner and thatâs why generally I respect him. I wish we lived in a world where my polite suggestion would have gotten him to read Alanâs piece but alas...
This is the problem with valuations universally using USD or other managed fiat currencies as Numeraire. Put simply, you have 2 effects. One is the measurement of a rigid ruler (BTC) by a rubber ruler (USD), the second is the fear of rubber rulers leading to demand for rigid one.
If the USD went hyperinflationary this would clearer: we shouldnât be using a fiat currency as our ruler because it is subject to mismanagement by central banking. Visa and MasterCard are tied to a manipulated ruler doing two things: measuring things and driving BTC demand.
The question about Gold is a good one. But, more broadly, should we be synthesizing a numeraire from a basket of fairly Rigid rulers that doesnât include USD? We say âstocks surged across the board todayâ when we really mean âOur centrally managed USD ruler plummeted today.â
We canât use BTC for numeraire if we want to measure it: BTC/BTC will never move. But we can have a basket of precious metals, crypto & even CHF if we want to see USD & BTC moving separately. I just want to move away from having the USD as ruler as it is subject to seigniorage.
To sum up: the big story is that USD/USD is the problem. We put the dollar in our blind spot. It is moving around violently, but it makes everything else that doesnât co-move with it look violent. The fact that so much co-moves w our crazy rubber ruler drives demand for XAU,BTC.
Moral: we should synthesize a new ruler (numeraire) XXX to measure USD/XXX & BTC/XXX separately as institutions tied most directly to USD may strongly co move in ways that disguise the dangers when a (mis)managed USD ultimately becomes the main story. Donât let the Dollar hide.
[Note: I say Ruler because if I say âGaugeâ the online BTC community freaks out and thinks itâs under attack from outsider âshitcoinersâ. Which it isnât. But whatever. Toxic fun. They are convinced they donât speak prose and that BTC & USD arenât gauges. And hey: Number go up...]
WOW. Bitcoin just surpassed the three highest-valued global banking giants by market cap! Will BTC eclipse gold next? https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-is-now-worth-more-than-visa-and-mastercard-combined
(Reporting via @CointelegraphMT)
Coming to appreciate new aspects of my son when I listen to him on other podcasts. I hear things Iâve never heard, even from him.
Itâs eye opening to think about being 15 right now with COVID, WAP, Deep Fakes, Trump, BTC, Woke, Etc, being your childhood:
This is absurd. Peter Thiel does not hate Bitcoin.
True, Iâve never found a shrine to BTC in his home. He has never written a song or prayer to Bitcoin. And I have never seen him lovingly polishing a physical Bitcoin. But for gosh sakes, enough with the insane misrepresentation.
virtually all of my heroes hate Bitcoin, I can deal with Thiel trashing it too
If Iâm so against bitcoiners, why do I find myself cheering BTC on to get back in there & finish the fight against USD?
âGet back in there!! You gonna take that? From USD?!? Get up and fight dammit. Youâre better than this!â Said a little voice on 2 Negronis after a long day...
Donât let short term losses in Bitcoin sour you on Bitcoin, crypto or distributed computing. Donât let Bitcoin zealots chase you away either.
Figuring out how we hedge against central bankers printing and devaluing fiat currency remains our upcoming rendezvous with the market.
We will need to go short the talent, ethics and skill of macro economists, central bankers, investment bankers and financiers.
Gold isnât perfect. Neither is BTC.
But we must beware the printing press and calls for relief, easing and stimulus are cries for transfer & dilution.
This is not investment advice. But it is a belief that central bankers through their disguised actions are a threat to all those who hold cash and its close equivalents. Look into BTC, XAU, CHF, XAG, etc etc etc and make up your own mind. There are risks to all. Good luck.
P.S. I have no time frame to give you on central banking actions. I just see a group of people who get into trouble and reach for the same tool. Over and over. And there will always be such trouble until we confront and address the underlying crisis in growth and innovation.
I believe we called their Prime Brokerage unit to ask whether they would handle BTCUSD out right and simple derivatives (puts & calls) on BTC as an underlying asset.
That was 11 years ago. GS was polite in the way sane people talk to crazy people with whom they must do business.
Goldman Sachs executes its first bitcoin derivatives trades https://www.ft.com/content/5ec1d0aa-7992-4fb8-8011-9d7f7b44faac
Iâm usually see @elonmusk as one of the few seeing our long game. This feels bizarre so Iâm not getting something.
Why do #BTC only to undo it in the face of the easily foreseeable? This and focus on Rocket propulsion(?) over fundamental physics are 2 things I clearly donât get.
*I
So I get taking #btc. And I get not taking #btc. But not doing it to undo it over energy(?) concerns.
With Rockets, you can maybe get Mars/Moon for planetary diversification. Thatâs *not* enough even *if* you get it done (a huge âifâ).
Relativity is what must be superceded.
Say what you want about my take on Bitcoin, but I donât shift my opinion of it with its ups and downs.
I am still of the opinion that ordinary folks need instruments with which we can short economists in general and central bankers in particular with respect to fiat currency.
Iâm just repeating what bitcoiners say. You need to clear up this confusion.
They *literally* often tell me âBitcoin Fixes Everything.â In those three words w/ the certainty of God.
That is usually just before they tell me I donât get it for asking how #btc solves an issue X.
There's some confusion going on with one of the #bitcoin memes.
I've heard Eric Weinstein and now Lex Fridman both get it wrong.
It's not "#bitcoin fixes everything."
It's "#bitcoin fixes this."
CPI is broken. Why?
Think of CPI as a gauge like a thermometer. You canât have politically motivated folks making your thermometers or they can change the design to cover up climate change. Likewise you canât have economists changing the gauge to disguise the effect of printing.
The economists canât yet compute a dynamic Cost-Of-Living-Adjustment or COLA or âChained Changing Preference Ordinal Welfare Konus Indexâ to be perfectly pedantic. Not because it doesnât exist. But because they donât have the math and donât want to lose their finger on the scale.
We must take CPI away from those who wish to back out a political agenda of printing money, raising our taxes by indexed tax brackets and slashing our indexed social security & Medicare.
Economics canât construct dynamic economic gauges like CPI/GDP until it learns gauge thy.
But more importantly, we have a culture that economics literally trumpets (and I swear I am not making this up) âEconomic Imperialismâ. It is âwe know math and you donâtâ-culture.
No. They donât know their own math. I will debate any high ranking economist on this point.
Itâs time to reveal that economics, far from embracing math or having physics envy, is deliberately avoiding solutions to old problems so that it can make up new gauges for CPI/GDP at will while telling the rest of the soft sciences âWe know your field better because we do math.â
No. Economics is a avoiding gauge theory, connections, Lie Groups, etc so it can retain its political relevance as an expert consultancy. Iâm with the crypto folks on this. Our economy must be protected from Seigniorage (printing money) and CPI tampering (e.g. Boskin Commission).
CPI should notâŠMUST NOTâŠbe adjustable to disguise inflation. It needs to be protected from the FED diluting the power of money and the BLS being free to disguise the effects by changing the method of construction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjCAsXUDvno
End the forced wealth transfers of central bankers covering up their own failures with âReliefâ, âEasingâ, âStimulousâ, âRescuesâ, âToxic Asset Purchasesâ, and other bailouts of our incompetent financial overlords.
We must protect CPI from economists disguising wealth dilution.
P.S. before you remind me how arrogant this sounds, keep in mind, that I am willing to debate this publicly with any leading economist eager to defend the central bankers and triumphalist theorists openly bragging about their math. Read this, and be sick:
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w7300/w7300.pdf
Moral: Gauge Theory fixes this intellectual corruption problem of economic imperialism, and #btc, blockchains and Crytpo can help.
A crypto native CPI governed on the blockchain to create a decentralized stablecoin people can rely on to keep their standard of living the same across time. A true alternative to fiat rather than a speculative investment asset like most other coins.
Breathless Financial Cheerleading Posing as Journalism:
#Bitcoin Fixes This.
I have no idea where BTC is heading next. But neither did the experts or journalists who implied that they did.
You didnât fail to manage the interview. Iâm a pain in the ass as a guest. And we are working toward something new.
Keep in mind when listening to your haters that itâs in many peopleâs interest to sow doubt, suspicion and envy. Many of those accounts are one person paying bots.
I just disagree with you in some places. Stop apologizing and tell your haters to suck on a lemon and wait. Weâll get to something new.
You did fine by me. Onward. Til next time.
[Honestly I feel like putting laser eyes in my profile sometimes just to quiet the worst of your haters. #Btc]
Did you see the thread I wrote about this interview? I have thought about it a lot and how I failed to manage the interview.
This Bitcoin depression is odd. Iâll
grant dips arenât much of a coddle.
But if you missed your time,
Way back in â09,
Are you thinking of buying to Hodl?
[A question in verse. This is *Not* investment advice. Limerick & crypto may lose value. Void where prohibited. Not an NFT.]
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