CPI

On X

2010

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Telomeres, Scientist Shortages, Seiberg Witten, Inflation (CPI), E8 TOE, Immigration, Neoclassical tastes all now have fictional narratives.

10:02 PM · May 1, 2010

2013

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Naughty Math Games?? The USA Today headline calls our gauge theoretic CPI an evil trick to be used for good. https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/02/12/evil-wall-street-tricks-can-be-used-for-good/1914479/

7:11 AM · Feb 13, 2013

2018

Daniel W. Drezner

@dandrezner

You knew damn well I was gonna have a take on this when you followed me. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/05/11/the-ideas-industry-meets-the-intellectual-dark-web/

12:11 PM · May 11, 2018

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

"all these thinkers can do is appease their followers. They are thought leaders who cannot demonstrate any leadership." -@dandrezner

Nice to meet you Dan. But that "take" comes from where exactly? Research? Personal interaction? You left me confused because it didn't make sense.

5:18 PM · May 11, 2018

Daniel W. Drezner

@dandrezner

Nice to meet you too, Eric. That "take" came from the @bariweiss essay that started this entire hullabaloo.

6:11 PM · May 11, 2018

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Splendid. But that "Take" isn't what the IDW is about. I mean do you take issue w/ my work on labor markets? Mortgage backed securities? CPI and GDP? Bret's take on drug testing on specially bred mice? Heather on risk in Education? Ben's conservative objection to Breitbart/Trump?

6:45 PM · May 11, 2018

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Are you objecting to Sam Harris' desire to put transcendence into Athiesm via meditation or even psychedlics? Jordan's emphasis on needing to offer unapologetically family/work-oriented male models to outcompete the lure of hate?

It just seems you found a take without a basis.

6:49 PM · May 11, 2018

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

May I ask you to look again or too explain why all the interesting things we talk about are of no interest? You might want to look at my essays on Russell Conjugation, Excellence, The crisis in Physics, Four Quadrant model, Kayfabe, Anthropic Capitalism, Coasian immigration, etc.

6:52 PM · May 11, 2018

Daniel W. Drezner

@dandrezner

Sure, I'll take a look.

7:08 PM · May 11, 2018

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

How did it go? Honestly I would have thought this research would happen before forming such a strong conclusion.

11:54 PM · May 11, 2018

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

[please continue to hold.....]

1:27 AM · May 12, 2018

2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Thanks for the invitation. I can try to explain my concern.

There really *is* a problem w MAGA, Trump, Qanon & conspiracy theories running rampant. And it will result in death & destruction if it spins out of control.

However it is being fueled by those who claim to fight it.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

CBR_wick

@CBR_wick

Hi @EricRWeinstein. Can you please explain to the public why you would be preemptive like this in a way that seems to contradict your value system? 🙏

12:42 AM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

The entire war over fact checking is a war of 2 low resolution teams.

One team wants absolute freedom to spread wild eyed theories that just about everything is a psyop or a false flag.

The other team wants to impose institutional consensus reality on everyone via media & tech.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Unfortunately, I can’t live under either. So each of the warring parties thinks I’m against them & for the other team. In their mentalities if you aren’t on their simplistic team you are, de facto, working for the other side. There’s no basic concept of *responsible* heterodoxy.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

No the Freemasons do not run everything on behalf of pedophile reptilians who faked Sandy Hook with crisis actors.

Yes there are/were conspiracies behind Epstein, H1B, @MSNBC, PPE, climate science, the “Great Moderation”, Great Reset...everywhere institutions want a “consensus”.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Having spent a good portion of my 20s at Harvard, I know *exactly* how this game works. Our betters sit down and try to figure out how to control others behind closed doors. They see themselves as the intrinsically enlightened people who need to do the thinking for all of us.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

When they wanted to cut our Social Security payments & raise our taxes they opted to try to change the CPI rather than pass legislation. When they wanted to pay less for scientists they knew to keep *silent* about NSF Labor Shortage claims even though such shortages don’t exist.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

These are the folks who tell you “masks don’t work” rather than “save masks for doctors as we forgot to restock them and moved all manufacturing to China like morons”. They will then spin on a dime to tell you “Only bad dumb people don’t wear masks”. This is the worst of Harvard.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

So I don’t want Alex Jones and Qanon nor do I want @TwitterSafety, @msnbc and @Harvard. I see them as very different forms of the same thing: people who want to take away our ability to see clearly.

And, I assure you, @Harvard tries to paint anyone it can’t control as dangerous.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

So, my belief is that anyone who rejects/questions Davos, Consensus Reality, Institutional Narrative, Public Health Campaigns, High Immigration, Peer Review, Primary Election Coverage, Trust & Safety...will be treated as Alex Jones sooner or Later.

This is Managed Reality ™.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

I cannot live in Managed Reality ™ because I think it defeats the purpose of being a human being. It negates being an American. It abdicates responsibility for our children.

I have defeated Harvard about half the times we have fought. How? Because they just aren’t that good.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Managed Reality ™ has a weak spot. It’s not run by our A-team anymore. Fauci isn’t Francis Crick. Biden isn’t Elon. Janet Yellen isn’t Satoshi.

In general, the A-Team is going independent because tech/media/Ed are enforcing way too much conformity through personal destruction.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

So why am I worried?

Well, I’ve been trying to save the institutions. It’s probably doomed, but almost no one is trying to do what I do: rescue the institutions from their death spiral by reinserting their critics in positions of prominence (eg Chomsky at MIT).

Hence my fear.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

If I were a tech guy I’d retreat into wealth. If I were a professor I’d shut up and collect my salary with job security. If I was a politician or journalist I’d follow the other sheep.

But I’m a science guy, an American and a dad. And I want my kids to have a particular future.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Thanks.

3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

“In today’s regulatory environment It’s virtually impossible to violate rules. And this is something the public really doesn’t understand...It’s impossible for a violation to go undetected; certainly not for an extended period of time.” -Former NASDQ Chairman, Bernie Madoff

3:05 PM · Apr 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

This is what institutional betrayal looks like when you stare straight in its eyes: relaxed, confident, respectable, smooth, knowledgeable.

It’s COVID pronouncements. Or String Theory. Or CPI revisions. Or “Labor Shortages”. Or fast-track trade treaties:

3:05 PM · Apr 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Many years ago 2002-6, I would give talks about Madoff & Epstein using “Black Arts Capital LLC” as a proxy, with the tag line “We’d tell you what we’re doing, but then...”

I guessed BM might be front-running his own business. Boy was I wrong on the specifics.

RIP Bernie Madoff.

3:05 PM · Apr 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

One of the things my trolls like to point to is outrageous claims.

One of my most *outrageous* is that my joint work on a 2nd Marginal Revolution for economics was scuttled by the Harvard Department of Economics Boskin Commissioners.

Yet it’s admitted:

https://ritholtz.com/2010/01/why-michael-boskin-deserves-our-contempt/

4:12 PM · Apr 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

It’s kind of an interesting puzzle. Why is it that a Harvard Professor (Mankiw) can say the truth which is that this was a conspiracy to cut entitlements. But the only two people who can CALCULATE a COLA for changing tastes are crazy for saying their work was deliberately buried?

4:12 PM · Apr 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

In any event, I stand by my claim. The Boskin Commission was organized by Moynihan and Packwood to deliberately break the CPI in a precise amount to avoid the US paying 1 trillion dollars over 10 years.

And I promise you no leading economist will call bullshit to debate this.

4:12 PM · Apr 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

On of the reasons is that one of the commissioners bragged about this being the motivation behind the scenes.

Okay. So why can’t we have gauge theoretic economics reevaluated? Everyone admits this is what happened. Why continue to bury the advance?

I dunno. But it’s amazing!

4:12 PM · Apr 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

The moral of the story to me is this:

We can’t have outside folks calculating and theorizing while the inside economists are fudging and cooking the books.

And calling me crazy won’t change a thing when this is finally understood. It’s simply institutional academic malpractice.

4:12 PM · Apr 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Claim: when it comes to inflation and growth, Economists don’t even understand the theory of their *own* price and quantity indices mathematically:

6:26 PM · May 12, 2021

Anthony Pompliano

@APompliano

WILD IDEA: Maybe the economists don't actually understand what is going on right now? https://x.com/disclosetv/sta/disclosetv/status/1392488787838742536

6:26 PM · May 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

The problem of inflation index calculation has not been adequately updated since Ragnar Frisch destroyed Irving Fisher’s attempt to axiomatize economic indices following the last great advances of F. Divisia and A. Konüs on continuous and welfare indices respectively.

6:26 PM · May 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Economists are holding their own field back by retaining their freedom to just cook up any revised index they want.

It’s as if physicists retained the right to define temperature differently every year based on a closed door meeting and manufactured new thermometers thereafter.

6:26 PM · May 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

If you’re going to push us all to move to “true” “economic” indices & chain them to reflect dynamic actors (or to disguise true inflation!), you would end up chaining ordinal preferences. And you can’t do that without gauge theory because it is a problem in parallel transport.

6:26 PM · May 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Watch the US CPI revisions and methodology going forward. People who like to print money tend to want to change their definition of inflation and therefore don’t like anyone taking away freedom to make up methodologies to suit their political objectives involving wealth transfer.

6:26 PM · May 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Moral: whoever constructs CPI and GDP numbers in a dynamic economy is in a position to fake higher growth and lower inflation if they are also in a position to stop the field from debating methodological advances that would restrict the freedom to make up index number recipes. 🙏

6:27 PM · May 12, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

CPI is broken. Why?

Think of CPI as a gauge like a thermometer. You can’t have politically motivated folks making your thermometers or they can change the design to cover up climate change. Likewise you can’t have economists changing the gauge to disguise the effect of printing.

6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021

sam.frax

@samkazemian

A crypto native CPI governed on the blockchain to create a decentralized stablecoin people can rely on to keep their standard of living the same across time. A true alternative to fiat rather than a speculative investment asset like most other coins.

6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

The economists can’t yet compute a dynamic Cost-Of-Living-Adjustment or COLA or “Chained Changing Preference Ordinal Welfare Konus Index” to be perfectly pedantic. Not because it doesn’t exist. But because they don’t have the math and don’t want to lose their finger on the scale.

6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

We must take CPI away from those who wish to back out a political agenda of printing money, raising our taxes by indexed tax brackets and slashing our indexed social security & Medicare.

Economics can’t construct dynamic economic gauges like CPI/GDP until it learns gauge thy.

6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

But more importantly, we have a culture that economics literally trumpets (and I swear I am not making this up) “Economic Imperialism”. It is “we know math and you don’t”-culture.

No. They don’t know their own math. I will debate any high ranking economist on this point.

6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

It’s time to reveal that economics, far from embracing math or having physics envy, is deliberately avoiding solutions to old problems so that it can make up new gauges for CPI/GDP at will while telling the rest of the soft sciences “We know your field better because we do math.”

6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

No. Economics is an avoiding gauge theory, connections, Lie Groups, etc so it can retain its political relevance as an expert consultancy. I’m with the crypto folks on this. Our economy must be protected from Seigniorage (printing money) and CPI tampering (e.g. Boskin Commission).

6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

CPI should not…MUST NOT…be adjustable to disguise inflation. It needs to be protected from the FED diluting the power of money and the BLS being free to disguise the effects by changing the method of construction.

6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

End the forced wealth transfers of central bankers covering up their own failures with “Relief”, “Easing”, “Stimulous”, “Rescues”, “Toxic Asset Purchases”, and other bailouts of our incompetent financial overlords.

We must protect CPI from economists disguising wealth dilution.

6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

P.S. before you remind me how arrogant this sounds, keep in mind, that I am willing to debate this publicly with any leading economist eager to defend the central bankers and triumphalist theorists openly bragging about their math. Read this, and be sick:

https://nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w7300/w7300.pdf

6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Moral: Gauge Theory fixes this intellectual corruption problem of economic imperialism, and #btc, blockchains and Crytpo can help.

6:59 AM · Jun 15, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

I am wholly supportive of this effort. Whether this iteration succeeds or fails is immaterial. The important thing is to take inflation away from those who would disguise:

A) The printing of fiat money by central bankers.

B) The fact that economists are holding back the field.

9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021

Balaji

@balajis

A truly global inflation dashboard would be the next coinmarketcap. It'd be bigger than that, in fact.

So we're offering a little prize to build one.

5:11 PM · Aug 5, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Why are they holding back the theory of index numbers (CPI, GDP)? Because the more innovation, the less freedom to dial our gauges to whatever values the political patrons of macro economics ask. The field is literally held back by leading economists to preserve their own power.

9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Around 1996, Boskin Commissioner Jorgensen held back the biggest unambiguous advance in mathematical economics that I am aware of in decades. It would have interfered with their finding that the CPI was 1.1% overstated. He calculated 1.1% would save a round Trillion for U.S.

9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

We can’t afford for economics to pretend it is a science in public, yet act as an incentive operated consultancy which can get you any result you need to fit the political agenda.

So this effort of @balajis needs to be supported! We must take this away from our current leaders.

9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Inflation is like a thermometer. You ask how hot/cold it is. You don’t get to ask “What do you need the Gauge to say? How much thumb should be on the scale?”

This is all discussed in detail by Jim Weatherall in his book in the final chapter/epilogue:

https://www.amazon.com/Physics-Wall-Street-Predicting-Unpredictable-ebook/dp/B006R8PMJS/ref=nodl_

9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Lastly, it is high time my co-developer of the theory got her due without being subjected to both the Matilda & Matthew effects. Man-boys really do drive technical women out of technical fields because they can’t cite a woman who is smarter than they are. Enough.

Go @balajis.

9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

The co-developer of gauge thy in econ as a 2nd Marginal Revolution is Pia Malaney in the early 1990s at Harvard.

There is no reason to pretend this inflation thy never happened just to flatter power. Let’s disintermediate the old:

https://www.openculture.com/2018/08/the-matilda-effect.html

9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

I think this is a great introduction to geometric marginalism and economic field theory. Hope you love it:

https://www.fields.utoronto.ca/talks/neoclassical-mechanics-economic-field-theory

9:17 PM · Aug 5, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

This eliminates a step or two. You may have to watch in lower resolution if you are on your phone however: https://x.com/sabinowitz/status/1423394091409330182

9:25 PM · Aug 5, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

For the technically inclined who are wondering about the measurment & theory of Inflation/CPI construction, I highly recommend the following search terms: "Konus index", "superlative index", "Divisia Index", "cycling problem", "mechanical index number", "COLA" and "chain index".

5:48 PM · Oct 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

You'll soon see that "The Index Number Problem" lies beneath everything from the measurement of the impact of prices on households/consumers, to the construction of Divisa Monetary Aggregates & the measurement of the money supply.

Our gauges are riddled with error & discretion.

5:48 PM · Oct 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

A thermometer is a gauge of temperature. You can't let those trying to disguise human impact on climate change make the thermometers giving them discretion.

A price index is a gauge of prices. Likewise, we need to remove as much discretion from the @BLS_gov gauge as possible.

5:48 PM · Oct 14, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Things I don't believe we can't conclusively resolve:

A) COVID's origin.

B) The Jeffrey Epstein story.

C) UAP.

D) JFK assassination.

E) Vegas Shooting.

F) Extent of 'Democracy Fortifying' in 2020.

G) Efficacy of Non-Vaccines.

H) Mysterious WEF 'Build Back Better' mantra.

7:17 PM · Oct 23, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

I) Negative impacts of Trade known to have been suppressed.

J) Adulteration of BLS CPI measure of inflation.

K) Negative economic impacts of Immigration.

L) Sudden spike in fake 'Objective Third Party Fact Checking'.

M) Sudden "Diversity Equity Inclusion" explosion.

7:17 PM · Oct 23, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Q) Joe Biden's state of cognitive decline.

R) Nature of MSNBC campagin against Andrew Yang.

S) Nature of Dean Scream, Anti-Ron Paul and other interference in democracy by Mainstream media News.

T) Impact of loss of mandatory retirement on young people seeking work.

U) Rex84.

7:17 PM · Oct 23, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

V) Collusion between National Academy and National Science foundation division of Policy Research and Analysis to fake demographic crisis in mid 1980s.

W) Lack on anyone building the significant & desperately needed new non-profit institutions despite skyhigh wealth inequality.

7:17 PM · Oct 23, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

X) Loss of Academic Freedom across the board in Academe.

Y) Loss of the Lancet and other publications as trusted non-political sources of fact.

Z) The true nature of @EcoHealthNYC w its relationship to @doddtra & Dr A. Fauci.

Moral: much of this 'ambiguity' is serving the few.

7:17 PM · Oct 23, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Can just *one* of them compute a simple Cost-Of-Living CPI for a consumer whose notion of well-being evolves even *slightly* during any period in question?

I claim not. Let's not get carried away with this concept of economic experts. This field first needs to become healthy.

6:17 AM · Nov 1, 2021

Secretary Pete Buttigieg

@SecretaryPete

An important, under-appreciated feature of the Build Back Better package is how it helps fight inflation.

It’s not just us saying so - leading economists and analysts have pointed this out. https://fortune.com/2021/09/21/nobel-prize-winning-economists-back-joe-biden-build-back-better-plan/

9:28 PM · Oct 31, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Surprise.

[Word to the wise: watch very very carefully how your CPI is constructed. You have the right to know EXACTLY how it is constructed.]

5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021

Bloomberg

@business

NEW: Powell says it's time to retire the word "transitory" regarding inflation https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2021-11-29/powell-and-yellen-in-the-senate-kwkw102n

3:41 AM · Nov 30, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

It’s hard to imagine how confused Economics is. Imagine you work for the @BLS_gov and you have to admit that your agency claims to compute our Inflation within a Cost-Of-Living framework, but doesn’t maintain the central ingredient needed to compute or even impute Cost-Of-Living.

5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021

Joey Politano

@JosephPolitano

There are no preference maps, chained CPI employs a superlative Tornqvist formula to account for substitution. The documents introducing the chained CPI do a better job outlining the methodological and theoretical structures than I could.(https://bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-introduction.pdf)

10:24 PM · Nov 6, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Follow the thread back from here. This is where the conversation ends. #EconTwitter may tell you terrible things about me.

Maybe. Or maybe they don’t have a theory that works and they refuse to admit it while transferring billions through CPI releases.

5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Wait. Slow down.

Did you just say that BLS is claiming to work within a Cost of Living framework which *requires* preference maps *definitionally*, but…words fail me…has no preference maps? At all??

I must not be understanding. Chaining Tornqvist indexes isn’t an answer here.

10:17 PM · Nov 6, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

You cannot keep mumbling Economic word salad forever “Modified Laspeyres…core inflation…Lowe generalization of the Laspeyres…Chained Tornqvist with revisions…chain drift…superlative index approximates flexible functional form…”

5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Tastes change. Cost-Of-Living inflation is about tastes. If tastes evolve in time, the economists’ COL framework disintegrates. That is: there is NO theory. #EconTwitter can tell you I don’t get it.

It is THEY who don’t get it. They can’t escape it. It’s in their own literature.

5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

What you are seeing reported as Inflation is not coming from a well grounded theory. It is coming from human beings making policy level judgements as if they were merely making technical adjustments to a technical time series devoid of values about who should benefit or suffer.

5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Moral: you have a right to know what’s in your food and how your pharmaceuticals were tested. You have a right to ask your surgeon what she plans to do during an operation.

You have a right to demand what economists are actually measuring as Cost-Of-Living W/O abuse for asking.

5:28 PM · Nov 30, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

And, no, the answers to these questions are NOT in the BLS handbook on CPI methodology. I’ve looked.

5:30 PM · Nov 30, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

The funniest part of our inflation measure is the “.8” here.

I so wish they were a little bolder and went with “6.8139942%, plus or minus 3*10**(-7) according to a Lowe index modified by hedonic adjustment for sub-aggregates” or some such.

More of us could share such a moment.

5:13 AM · Dec 29, 2021

Charlie Bilello

@charliebilello

5 / The 6.8% inflation rate in the US is the highest inflation we've seen since 1982 and is understating true price increases as it assumes "shelter" (largest component of CPI @ 33%) only increased 3.8% in the last year.

Breakdown of reported CPI:

3:08 PM · Dec 24, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

The meaning of the .8 is significant, but only because of the wealth that will be transferred by it. It is not really meaningful as part of a measure of the cost of living for the representative consumer.

It’s effectively made up to make the “6.x” look solid. Which it isn’t.

5:13 AM · Dec 29, 2021

JAB

@b_bran223

Do you actually have a point here? Your quibble is with the “.8” because it “makes the 6.x look good”??? How do you figure. I honestly think you tweet sometimes purely for the sake of it

5:17 AM · Dec 29, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

Actually there are many points.

Inflation isn’t a number it’s a field.

Inflation is path dependent.

Don’t advertise precision that doesn’t exist.

CPI is not yet in the COL framework as claimed by BLS.

Path dependence should be embraced.

Etc.

My followers have heard them.

6:59 AM · Dec 29, 2021

JAB

@b_bran223

Eric, I am one such enlightened follower..

In what regard/magnitude is stochastic path dependency to change such CPI value if prior estimates are proportionately miscalculated? At this point in time, how best would you gauge the relative rate?

5:17 AM · Dec 29, 2021

JAB

@b_bran223

This seems to be more along the line of your “nuclear vs nucular” reference by which we quibble about semantics, with absurdly low impact on the end problem. The lack of precision for x path dependent function would similarly yield y persons debating lack of precision..

5:21 AM · Dec 29, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

I don’t want to go into it all here. But here is what I want.

A) BLS stops lying about COL framework. Stops hand waving about economic vs mechanical indexes.

B) Stop readying c-cpi-u to take over from cpi-u. We can see you coming.

C) Move towards personalized CPI using inputs.

9:55 AM · Dec 29, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

D) Embrace curvature if moving to chaining.

E) Publish methodology of basket or representative consumer(s). BLS isn’t an oracle.

F) Consider moving to a Cobb-Douglas/CES aware changing preference mechanical index if wedded to COL.

G) Admit to conflicts of interest (Boskin).

9:59 AM · Dec 29, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

H) Move to field theoretic & group-valued indices (e.g. GL(2, R) indices for trade).

I) Stop trying to hide Holonomy. It’s there. Accept that it is supposed to be there rather than hiding it with Walsh multi-period circularity test.

Etc.

But please stop making vacuous claims.

10:04 AM · Dec 29, 2021

Eric Weinstein

@EricRWeinstein

I’m prepared to have high level conversations about this. But our current system is an abomination. No one knows what is in or out. It’s a black box that means little. The theory is bad. The explanations are fake. And the system is opaque. Even a Laspeyres without lies is better.

10:07 AM · Dec 29, 2021

Related Pages

• Great Moderation

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