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Not updating my priors on all UFO sightings. I’m updating my priors on “The Golden Age of General Relativity”, B DeWitt, L Witten, RIAS, the Martin Company, etc.” And I’m doing it based on a government report inconsistent with the closing report of BlueBook. And you? | Not updating my priors on all UFO sightings. I’m updating my priors on “The Golden Age of General Relativity”, B DeWitt, L Witten, RIAS, the Martin Company, etc.” And I’m doing it based on a government report inconsistent with the closing report of BlueBook. And you? | ||
|quote= | |||
{{Tweet | |||
|image=michaelshermer-profile.jpg | |||
|nameurl=https://x.com/michaelshermer/status/1480571442722922496 | |||
|name=Michael Shermer | |||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/michaelshermer | |||
|username=michaelshermer | |||
|content=Dear @EricRWeinstein | |||
According to UFOlogists 95% of all sightings for all time are explained by natural/terrestrial phenom (planes, blimps, geese, sun dogs, lens flares, etc.). 5% unexplained (≠ ET or Russian tech). X new sighting is made. Which bin is X most likely to be in? | |||
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Jan 10, 2022 | |||
}} | |||
|timestamp=4:20 PM · Jan 10, 2022 | |timestamp=4:20 PM · Jan 10, 2022 | ||
}} | }} | ||