7,157
edits
Inflation: Difference between revisions
no edit summary
(Created page with "{{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1487123287830253570 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=We should talk about national security and the Money Supply even before we talk about national security and crypto. We should talk about CPI inflation #s and index number methodology at @BLS_gov before we talk about crypto threats. M2 monetary aggregate...") Â |
No edit summary |
||
| Line 32: | Line 32: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | ||
|username=EricRWeinstein | |username=EricRWeinstein | ||
|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | |content=Great question. [[Inflation]] is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | ||
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | |timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | ||
}} | }} | ||
| Line 42: | Line 42: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | ||
|username=EricRWeinstein | |username=EricRWeinstein | ||
|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | |content=Great question. [[Inflation]] is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | ||
|quote= | |quote= | ||
{{Tweet | {{Tweet | ||
| Line 50: | Line 50: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/invisi_college1 | |usernameurl=https://x.com/invisi_college1 | ||
|username=invisi_college1 | |username=invisi_college1 | ||
|content=I have heard you say inflation looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning | |content=I have heard you say [[Inflation|inflation]] looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning | ||
|timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | |timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | ||
}} | }} | ||
| Line 72: | Line 72: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | ||
|username=EricRWeinstein | |username=EricRWeinstein | ||
|content=Q2: Why is inflation a field on LOOP spaces of preferences? | |content=Q2: Why is [[Inflation|inflation]] a field on LOOP spaces of preferences? | ||
A2: Tastes are seasonal. In USA âWe never spill Egg Nog on our bikinis.â What you both want & price HAS to be made seasonal to avoid the Cycling Problem (Holonomy) in index number thy. So we have LOOPS of tastes/prices. | A2: Tastes are seasonal. In USA âWe never spill Egg Nog on our bikinis.â What you both want & price HAS to be made seasonal to avoid the Cycling Problem (Holonomy) in index number thy. So we have LOOPS of tastes/prices. | ||
| Line 83: | Line 83: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | ||
|username=EricRWeinstein | |username=EricRWeinstein | ||
|content=A2 Continued: If you donât make loops of tastes and prices, you will show meaningless regular inflation if prices, quantities and tastes Circle back to their initial Jan 1 values. This confuses economic experts (Like Diewert) when it comes to chain/path indicesâŠwhich is up next. | |content=A2 Continued: If you donât make loops of tastes and prices, you will show meaningless regular [[Inflation|inflation]] if prices, quantities and tastes Circle back to their initial Jan 1 values. This confuses economic experts (Like Diewert) when it comes to chain/path indicesâŠwhich is up next. | ||
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | |timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | ||
}} | }} | ||
| Line 92: | Line 92: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | ||
|username=EricRWeinstein | |username=EricRWeinstein | ||
|content=Q3: Why is inflation a field on Path Spaces of Looped Preferences/Prices? | |content=Q3: Why is [[Inflation|inflation]] a field on Path Spaces of Looped Preferences/Prices? | ||
A3: Loosely, Index number theory really died w/ work of Ragnar Frisch (rightly) destroying Irving Fischerâs misguided work on axiomatic tests for bilateral (2 period) mechanical index numbers. Hereâs why. | A3: Loosely, Index number theory really died w/ work of Ragnar Frisch (rightly) destroying Irving Fischerâs misguided work on axiomatic tests for bilateral (2 period) mechanical index numbers. Hereâs why. | ||
| Line 130: | Line 130: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | ||
|username=EricRWeinstein | |username=EricRWeinstein | ||
|content=Q4: Why do you say indexes are Group-Valued? Isnât inflation just a number? | |content=Q4: Why do you say indexes are Group-Valued? Isnât [[Inflation|inflation]] just a number? | ||
A4: Here goes. In the most famous case you *can* get away with a number. But that 8.9% style [[CPI]] nonsense is actually secretly a 1x1 matrix in GL(1,R). And that actually matters! Why? B/c Non-linearity. | A4: Here goes. In the most famous case you *can* get away with a number. But that 8.9% style [[CPI]] nonsense is actually secretly a 1x1 matrix in GL(1,R). And that actually matters! Why? B/c Non-linearity. | ||
| Line 141: | Line 141: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | ||
|username=EricRWeinstein | |username=EricRWeinstein | ||
|content=A4 Cont.: Only 1x1 matrices commute. NxN matrices do not! And if A.B isnât B.A, the system goes non-linear. So if you have 2 countries with 2 currencies, the commutative case doesnât work at all. You need to use Freeman Dysonâs system of Time Ordered Products to save inflation. | |content=A4 Cont.: Only 1x1 matrices commute. NxN matrices do not! And if A.B isnât B.A, the system goes non-linear. So if you have 2 countries with 2 currencies, the commutative case doesnât work at all. You need to use Freeman Dysonâs system of Time Ordered Products to save [[Inflation|inflation]]. | ||
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | |timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | ||
}} | }} | ||
| Line 159: | Line 159: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | ||
|username=EricRWeinstein | |username=EricRWeinstein | ||
|content=Q5: So letâs see. Inflation is a field like temperature. But a field in a fiber bundle over âŸ-dimensional path spaces of loops of preferences/prices valued in non-commuting groups leading to non linearities not addressed by economists? What about actual geography!â | |content=Q5: So letâs see. [[Inflation]] is a field like temperature. But a field in a fiber bundle over âŸ-dimensional path spaces of loops of preferences/prices valued in non-commuting groups leading to non linearities not addressed by economists? What about actual geography!â | ||
A5: Fair. đ | A5: Fair. đ | ||
| Line 217: | Line 217: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | ||
|username=EricRWeinstein | |username=EricRWeinstein | ||
|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | |content=Great question. [[Inflation]] is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade itâs an element of GL(2,R) although the economists havenât gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. Itâs a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces. | ||
|quote= | |quote= | ||
{{Tweet | {{Tweet | ||
| Line 225: | Line 225: | ||
|usernameurl=https://x.com/invisi_college1 | |usernameurl=https://x.com/invisi_college1 | ||
|username=invisi_college1 | |username=invisi_college1 | ||
|content=I have heard you say inflation looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning | |content=I have heard you say [[Inflation|inflation] looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning | ||
|timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | |timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022 | ||
}} | }} | ||