Predictions Eric Got Right

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We are collecting predictions from Eric so we may use them for anything we want in the future.


  • Add any prediction you like
  • Help add sources so we know all of these are really predictions. Make sure to include a link if possible. If you're quoting from a long piece (e.g a podcast) give a timestamp, or another useful pointer in the case of long texts.
  • Keep the format consistent (between predictions and between versions).


  • 2001 Eric meets Jeffrey Epstein and immediately after concluding the meeting calls his wife and tells her he “just met a construct.”
  • 2002 Eric's research with A. Abdulali on valuation perversities for Mortgage Backed Securities appeared in Risk in 2002 and was among the earliest in the literature to call attention to the dangers posed by such illiquid securities. The collapse occurred in 2008. Source
  • 2011 Eric’s article predicted the rise of a Donald Trump-like leader who was elected President of the United States in 2016.

There were others, too. Let's add links to them


you can also go through the transcripts of episodes and Eric's tweets to look for more examples.