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Revealed Preference (edit)

Revision as of 20:11, 9 December 2025

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== On X ==
=== 2009 ===


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=== 2010 ===


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=== 2016 ===


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=== 2021 ===


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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456440941221335042
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456733111954272257
|name=Eric Weinstein
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=@_PeterRyan @UChicago I am not sure. But the first question I have is do we believe ordinal preference maps are constructable from revealed preference.
|content=I would take a look at [[Paul Samuelson|Paul Samuelson’s]] Nobel lecture. He goes into depth on [[Revealed Preference|revealed preference]] and preference field non-integrability. I think we have lost track of the fact that integrability of tastes was never actually settled except by fiat. Will talk on this.
|thread=
|thread=
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456319697855528960
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=ANNOUNCEMENT: I head next week to @UChicago  for 5 days (Nov. 8-12) at the request of its storied Department of Economics to present our theory that all of economics is based on the wrong version of the differential calculus.
Importantly, this error afflicts Inflation & the [[CPI]].
|timestamp=5:57 PM · Nov 4, 2021
|media1=Gauge_Theory_UChicago_Talk_Cover.jpg
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|image=PeterRyan-profile-MGctNrxp.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1456400865766490117
|name=Peter Ryan
|usernameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan
|username=_PeterRyan
|content=Hi Eric, where can I find your calculations, data, and conclusions on what the real inflation and CPI numbers are?
|timestamp=11:19 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456406149020872704
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Weird question. You seem to have me confused for the BLS. I don't take in Data. I don't have a staff or a budget. You're assuming that I have the 'Real Inflation & [[CPI]] numbers'. I don't.
This is about not even having a correct *theory* to calculate. What we corrected was theory.
|timestamp=11:40 PM · Nov 4, 2021
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456406149020872704
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Just to give you an idea:
|media1=ERW-X-post-1456406937155764225-FDYyVfZUcAQipT1.jpg
|timestamp=11:44 PM · Nov 4, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1456407821247938562
|name=Peter Ryan
|usernameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan
|username=_PeterRyan
|content=So if you have the correct theory then why wouldn't you be able to calculate the correct results from the existing input data available?
|timestamp=11:47 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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|content=@_PeterRyan @UChicago I didn’t say what you said. I said there was a wrong theory for CPI. We corrected that theory.
|content=I didn’t say what you said. I said there was a wrong theory for [[CPI]]. We corrected that theory.


The issue of how to implement a theory in practice leases to different data being collected and different aggregations. For a different theory, you would collect different data.
The issue of how to implement a theory in practice leases to different data being collected and different aggregations. For a different theory, you would collect different data.
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
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|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=@_PeterRyan @UChicago As an example. The Boskin commission gave a single illustrative example in their report using two goods, chicken and beef. They gave prices but not ordinal utility. Here is the COL answer assuming Cobb-Douglas and Linear interpolation of all quantities. They could not compute it. https://t.co/zUgd1LwBgx
|content=As an example. The [[Boskin Commission|Boskin commission]] gave a single illustrative example in their report using two goods, chicken and beef. They gave prices but not ordinal utility. Here is the COL answer assuming Cobb-Douglas and Linear interpolation of all quantities. They could not compute it.
|timestamp=1:07 AM · Nov 5, 2021
|timestamp=1:07 AM · Nov 5, 2021
|media1=FDZFiwNUYAUWtIs.jpg
|media1=ERW-X-post-1456427997813116928-FDZFiwNUYAUWtIs.jpg
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
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|content=@_PeterRyan @UChicago The reason they had no theory to cover it was because the C-D exponent changed. And there is a claim that no extension of the Konus COL exists for dynamic tastes.  
|content=The reason they had no theory to cover it was because the C-D exponent changed. And there is a claim that no extension of the Konus COL exists for dynamic tastes.  


Hope that helps with your confusion. Be well.
Hope that helps with your confusion. Be well.
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|content=@_PeterRyan @UChicago *leads not leases in the above.
|content=<nowiki>*</nowiki>leads not leases in the above.
|timestamp=1:10 AM · Nov 5, 2021
|timestamp=1:10 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1456431438975275013
|name=Peter Ryan
|usernameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan
|username=_PeterRyan
|content=Yea I understand that and find your points interesting. So I would like to understand how we would go about invalidating the traditional theories by collecting and analyzing the correct data. I don't think those tweets answer that. I get your hypothesis.
|timestamp=1:21 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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|content=@_PeterRyan @UChicago Well I think the BLS should begin by questioning their own premises. They say they work in a COL framework. They do not. They do not share how they construct the representative consumer. How they estimate substitution if they don’t have preference data. It’s fake and a mess.
|content=Well I think the BLS should begin by questioning their own premises. They say they work in a COL framework. They do not. They do not share how they construct the representative consumer. How they estimate substitution if they don’t have preference data. It’s fake and a mess.
|timestamp=1:27 AM · Nov 5, 2021
|timestamp=1:27 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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|content=@_PeterRyan @UChicago If they are going to do COLas they should estimate preferences. If they aren’t they should do mechanical index theory.
|content=If they are going to do COLas they should estimate preferences. If they aren’t they should do mechanical index theory.


But I would use a bunch of that money to develop a research program on preference collection/imputation for substitution bias if I was running a COL shop.
But I would use a bunch of that money to develop a research program on preference collection/imputation for substitution bias if I was running a COL shop.
|timestamp=1:29 AM · Nov 5, 2021
|timestamp=1:29 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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|timestamp=1:59 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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|image=PeterRyan-profile-MGctNrxp.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1456434501312073735
|name=Peter Ryan
|usernameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan
|username=_PeterRyan
|content=Ok how many researchers would you need? Is the average salary $300k? What are the non-labour costs needed? Could this be done in 1 year?
 
Could we get this done with let's say $10m? Is $609m necessary for a MVP?
|timestamp=1:33 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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{{Tweet
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456733111954272257
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456440941221335042
|name=Eric Weinstein
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=@_PeterRyan @UChicago I would take a look at Paul Samuelson’s Nobel lecture. He goes into depth on revealed preference and preference field non-integrability. I think we have lost track of the fact that integrability of tastes was never actually settled except by fiat. Will talk on this.
|content=I am not sure. But the first question I have is do we believe ordinal preference maps are constructable from revealed preference.
|timestamp=1:59 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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|timestamp=9:20 PM · Nov 5, 2021
|timestamp=9:20 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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=== 2023 ===


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== Related Pages ==
== Related Pages ==


* [[Gary Becker]]
* [[George Stigler]]
* [[Economic Imperialism]]
* [[Boskin Commission]]
* [[CPI]]
* [[CPI]]
* [[Ronald Coase]]
* [[Ronald Coase]]
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