Efficient Frontier
The efficient frontier is the blending of all possible components into portfolios with the highest possible return and the lowest possible volatility.
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I rarely talk Trump. I never know when heâs actually crazy or crazy like a fox. Iâve called him an existential risk. I thought that was clear enough. Heâs an existential risk who, ex-post, might do some good, but at unacceptably high ex-ante risk.
I canât believe weâre here.
@DavidDeutschOxf @SamHarrisOrg Yes. Exactly. It was likely a slower version of existential risk by inaction.
The thing that disturbs me most is that neither Trump version nor the more sober Clinton/Bush/Obama type strategy are likely to be anywhere near the efficient frontier of possible approaches.
@ScottAdamsSays Hey Scott. Ok. Walk me through it? Who are Trumpâs allies w/ whom weâve been carefully rehearsing & co-strategizing in case this goes hot? Whatâs the plan for a simultaneous China trade war, N Korea deterioration, attacking our own IC, & political infighting around Russian ties?
@ScottAdamsSays Iâm open to drunken boxing, or crazy-like-a-fox. I get the Vincent âThe Chinâ Gigante âwalk around G. Village in your bathrobe routineâ to avoid being easy prey. But wouldnât he be very focused on having great relations w/ our Intelligence Community & Allies to be hyper credible?
@ScottAdamsSays Ok. Iâm a civilian with zero experience in battle. I thought a credible threat requires a lot of advanced planning and not fighting on a lot of distracting fronts all at once. Is the idea that everything will quiet down and all will fall in line when things get real? #confused
@ScottAdamsSays Just 2%. Okay at least thatâs at least arguably de minimis. From where does that estimate come? How are you getting there?
@ScottAdamsSays We do? Okay. What does that look like? Especially in the opportunistic scenario where everyone scrambled to make hay while the US is distracted. Is it just lightening fast? Does it stay conventional? Civilian casualty estimates? Paint me your picture. #givemeyourconfidence
@ScottAdamsSays Post WMD? Post Vietnam? Post Trump? Post Church/Pike. I dunno. Maybe. But Scott. I gotta be honest. You seem to be confusing âpeople donât get that this could work outâ with âthis is so cool, itâs gonna work fineâ and I donât know where you get the extra juice to make that leap.
@DavidDeutschOxf @SamHarrisOrg I like standing up to backwards human rights violating nuclear obsessed theocracy. I just wish it were part of a plan. I never underestimate Persians. They always seem to me some of the shrewdest players around. But thanks David.
@ScottAdamsSays I see the next level psychological manipulation or persuasion as you do. Thatâs not where we are missing.
Trump is âshort volatilityâ here. So âgenerallyâ is irrelevant. Itâs about expected value. How do you get from generally positive to positive expected value? Help me out SA?
@BowDownB4Trump @DavidDeutschOxf @SamHarrisOrg Thatâs why I said theocracy....
@ScottAdamsSays Itâs the standard Russian Roulette problem with many chambers and one bullet. If every spin is worth $50K it generally works out, albeit with negative expected value.
@ScottAdamsSays So this surprises me Scott. I imagined you must be thinking something like Trump figured out how to get the Theocrats to crumble from within by bringing a tweet to a knife fight...and winning. But now youâre just pointing out that we are better armed for a real fight. Is that it?
Israel isnât one hundred percent honest about being a multi-ethnic democracy and a Jewish state. It fudges its conflicting ideals.
It deserves to take shit from all the worldâs nations in more difficult situations than it has in its neighborhood that are doing a much better job.
@AakashS98579231 Ya know.....now that you mention it....
I just canât think of any off hand. If you are a BDS supporter, feel free to use this space to list those nations.
I know about many injustices. I hate the unfair treatment of the Arabs who risk all for true peace.
But Iâm not discussing the legitimacy of a permanent state.
@OldClarinetBoy Love mathematicians.
I am saying something edgier which is this. Every nation has an Abomination Ratio:
- Unit Injustice/Hypocrisy
- âââââââââââââââ
- Unit of Impossibility of Survival
Yes Israel has a lot to answer for. But its AR ratio is a point of pride. BDS is the abomination, not Israel.
@amasad I think people have every right to criticize Israel. Israel isnât on the efficient frontier of human decency. We Jews in & out of Israel can do even better than we have. The WestBank situation has dragged on & on. Israel can do so much better.
But Iâm done singling out đźđ± 4 BDS.
@tremorfan Not a nation.
@martin_expat Israel wanted to be a nation badly enough to become a nation state in the real world of today that it was willing to compromise on grand dreams. So it gets an AR. Palestinians have been holding out for a greater nation than has been on offer from the world. So no AR ratio.
Letâs talk about the next major US school shooting with more than 3 dead. Those folks are currently alive. They are just having a day today like anyone else. They donât need our thoughts & prayers yet. We could take action to save those lives. We know it is going to happen.
Nu?
@RealJimbabwe Donât forget malaria. Or suicide. Or snakes.
@RichyDispatch I donât like mondays.
@CarrisJake Hereâs my plan: That we begin talking ahead of time and not retroactively. Move to the next one. Like it is âGroundhog dayâ. Letâs set a schedule of anticipation and see if it changes anything. Why are we exhibiting learned helplessness? Makes no sense.
@CarrisJake Gun control is feared by many of my fellow Americans. Ok. So...I want the strong 2A crowd to take the lead. What real plan do we have that we can fund and implement to get these deaths toward numbers that arenât an embarrassment?
@Lann5000 @CarrisJake Okay. Do we raise taxes and do mental health checks? What is it we do to avoid restrictions on firearm ownership to get good results?
@IbnChristo So, this is a negative externality of freedom and we are on the efficient frontier?
@Beefalo37 I just took it. My solution is to shift the burden onto future shootings so that we can find out why we refuse to cry over milk that is as yet unspilled. As it were.
@Thinkofwhy So this is too far down the list and we should not over focus?
@JamesDeanAnder1 So, focus on the media distortion?
@JamesDeanAnder1 @RealSaavedra So prioritize things that are more deadly?
@HamfistHarold @CarrisJake I donât hate armed guards. Fill me in. How does this part of the conversation go when you bring it up? Iâm not a veteran of this stalemate. More of a casual observer. Thanks.
@CrisVerdonik I want to understand what a conversation looks like that isnât held in the aftermath of a shooting. I always see this done after a shooting with bodies that are still warm and grieving parents everywhere. I want to understand the issue. Why do we deadlock? Itâs sad & surprising.
@CoffeeBear5 Sure.
@MiTenYo This is a highly conserved quasi response. Not without some merit. But also oddly reflexive as well.
@BadHombreMarcoB That makes some sense. It is a possible approach. Does that inhibit shooters or just limit their damage in your opinion? Has it been studied?
@BadHombreMarcoB Iâm just ignorant of the theory here.
@Neubian Agreed.
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