Decision Tree
Decision Tree on The Basics Guide.
On X
2019
Letâs assume you donât love UBI for all the usual reasonable reasons. Letâs also assume that the economy stops being able to really perform adequately for the unremarkable median worker in childbearing and rearing years.
What is your replacement?
Note: âeducation/trainingâ above means that you are betting on education and training with no gaurantee of success, already knowing that the median individual is not able to make the economy work.
@William_Blake Yes. Only itâs called a decision tree. Iâm trying to cut off access to the other branch so that we explore this one. I donât believe we are definitely on this branch.
But yes. Exactly. Iâm assuming one conclusion and being transparent about it.
@William_Blake There will always be things to do. Agreed. At what level of compensation remains the question.
2020
Trying to imagine the decision trees multiplying as we go forward from here.
Utterly failing to do so.
@PsychPLockwood Iâm essentially certain that it canât. At least initially. Too many players. Too many moves.
What is being suppressed in Iowa? Iâm not understanding the narratives and their conflicts.
This just isnât that technically hard.
Note: I have zero inside information.
@CaitlinPacific So...That isnât nothing. Not by a long shot. Are we testing in production??
Understanding how we could get this level of incompetence showing up in production is a big story for people who want to be in charge of a country.
@thenotfakepaul Thatâs a basic issue. All branches of the decision tree are poisoned in such cases.
@IdoShamirIdo Thatâs why I asked: whether it is incompetence or malice or lack of ability to communicate what happened is almost immaterial. I donât need to know. I do know that there should be a clear story by now under all assumptions.
Triage Talk: When your government and other leaders have not secured sufficient resources, you will be triaged to cover this error.
Without being in any way sensationalist, that means some of us will die who could have been saved.
It's time to learn that this is done via codes:
There are many different triage systems out there. They all count on us not understanding the language or the structure of the decision tree.
You might, for example, think that 'expectant' meant expecting care rather than expecting death.
#FlattenTheCurve = #MinimizeTheTriage https://t.co/hvZEIGPtGD
What we need to do is to:
A) Offer help to our emergency response teams to secure scarce resources on emergency footing.
B) Push our leaders to secure MUCH better answers by not being the passive participants in Triage. Find out how it works. Ask: "What is the decision tree?"
I am sorry to say this but it is unforgivable that our leadership is selling stocks with their information rather than organizing a national response if this is bad enough to put the world economy at a risk.
There is no one at the helm of this ship who makes any sense to me now.
Here are the questions I want asked:
A) What is our Govt triage plan?
B) What are our limiting variables?
C) What factories have been commandeered to produce them?
D) Is everyone needed called up? If not, why not?
E) How did we choose our triage plan?
F) What are we optimizing?
âHere at X we are fully committed to free speech. The diversity of ideas is in fact the very reason this company was founded. At the same time, we at X strive for diversity inclusion so that all users on our platform may have an optimal user experience sharing perspectives.â
âOf course it is never possible to please all users and our space is actually more ferociously competitive than our critics realize. However rather than fear competition, at X we welcome it and encourage those who think that this can be done better to launch their own companies.â
âWe believe that through a process we call âDynamic Best Practicesâ our adaptive policies meet the needs of all our users. That is why we launched our awareness campaign âFree Speech without Hate Speechâ with leading academics to share their research in advising our every move.â
âWe at X are proud of our commitment to both Trust and Safety. That is why we have worked with thought leaders from across a diverse group of authoritative & respected institutions to formulate dynamic Terms of Service to constantly adapt to our mission of diversity & inclusion.â
These concepts are being used to control our thoughts, bias our conversations, chill our speech even when it is not endangering anyone and simply discussing and weighing branches of *legitimate* decision trees of possibilities that Tech now insists we assign zero weight.
Sorry..
Of course there is no problem with protecting individuals from harm and abuse. The issue is that once Tech defines Fake News, Diversity, Inclusion, Equity, Hate Speech, etc to include methods making reality illegal, *any* inconvenient user can be removed, down ranked & deboosted.
This is undoubtedly coming from multiple sources. Some of it is common pressures producing common intellectually incoherent responses. But other parts of this are likely coming from quiet âWorking Groupsâ with report titles like âCoordinating Response to Hate Speech & Fake News.â
Now all that doesnât come from a company X. But it comes from the same place from which all the mindless corporate tech drivel they all produce originates. And all I had to do was get myself in the right frame of mind to write it. So I sat on a porcelain throne, and there it was.
âIn fact many donât realize that we actually work *with* our competitors across platforms, and even with our regulators to make sure that we can learn from their experiences and share our knowledge. Because in the end, at X we know that business is about serving you, the people.â
@FirearmsPB Thank you thank you.
I would like to thank my teachers.
@JaimeVelo I would put it differently. Merde. If you will.
2021
And US scientists who refuse to take this seriously as per the above tweet are neglecting and/or turning their back on our national and international security responsibilities given this report.
That is my belief. Full stop.
Itâs totally irresponsible for any scientist to refuse to investigate UAP after this report with a full and unpruned decision tree at her side.
That includes considering the total incompetence of the defense department, *aliens*, spoofing by enemies and UFO political economy.
@LeeBillings See âpolitical economyâ above.
2022
@stillgray More likely that they would have been played. Iâd be surprised if anyone was dumb enough to take such a short ride.
Just wait. Itâs such a weird decision Tree.
For those of you speculating on channels reaching out to Sam Harris, myself and others on UFO/UAP. There was a minimum of one planned dissemination that got called off for reasons unknown. I am not at liberty to discuss. But I can say why people like Sam are likely to be quiet.
I wonât speak for @SamHarrisOrg. But I failed to generate *any* good explanation for the repeated and fairly consistent assertions of DOD/IC types with no evident training in acting or theater. To say nothing of ordinary non-USG people. SoâŠnone of us knows what to think. Truly.
Because there is an ocean of weird behavior and claims coming from otherwise sober seeming USG and former USG people. And a lot of it is weirdly consistent. So Iâm totally underwhelmed by the direct evidence so far. But Iâm baffled by the indirect evidence. What generated this?
What has so far been released to the public by government has been minimal. No one I know wants to incinerate credibility becoming a true believer over a tiny number of relatively low quality USG videos which, at least to me, prove absolutely nothing.
So then: why be interested?
One request: stop speculating. Some folks are reaching out. They pulled back a bit. And I for one may stop talking about this if asked due to the security issues. But that which has been shared with the public is not enough to go on. Itâs the indirect evidence we are watching. đ
What is worse, the most parsimonious explanations are the obvious two:
A) Our government is engaged in deception and utterly brilliant at it.
B) đœ.
If the former, it is more competent than we ever suspected.
Everything else is less parsimonious. But I canât make sense of it.
Something huge is up. It could be a psychological operation. It could be next generation spoofing by an adversary. It could be mass psychosis. But I donât want to speculate beyond a decision tree. Something huge *is* up. And I dug hard, but failed to get beyond indirect evidence.
2023
Did you lose anyone irreplaceable to COVID? To myocarditis? Have Brain Fog? Lose a year or two of your life? Fail to attend a funeral? Wonder how the vaccines appeared so quickly?
Have your reputation destroyed over conspiracy theorizing? Get called a Sinophobic racist?
Watch:
I donât know honestly know what we are watching. I can only pray that it is not remotely what it appears to be.
Hearings. That is all I have. There have to be deep and painful hearings. I have no other words. We need hearings.
- Hearings
I have been asked to reiterate what I just said in a Twitter Space about this.
What we have here is a decision tree with three branches. All three are totally distinct in implication.
In all cases, the cure is hearings. We may need to bury PV. We may need to bury Pfizer. Or we may have a first date type meeting that went wildly out of control as many people exaggerate to create intrigue and drama.
We donât need to guess. We just hold hearings. Itâs simple. đ
The Tree:
Branch A: Project Veritas is completely misrepresenting this video. They get *totally* destroyed for doing so.
Branch B: The video is real but the individual is totally exaggerating to make himself seem like a powerful insider.
Branch C: Itâs basically accurate.
@Liv_Boeree Same. Just exactly the same Liv. But we just need to dig. This doesnât get resolved tonight.
So you could see âDirected Driftâ. The relationship between vaccine and virus is similar to the mirroring one sees in Bayesian Mimicry. The model species can move laterally and the mimic then has to move to mirror the phenotype of the model. Do I donât think this *has* to be GoF.
Also, what I said in the space about Gain Of Function:
Even though the subject says âDirected Evolutionâ I do not believe a priori that he is technically describing GoF. A better term would be âDirected Selectionâ because the virus could move laterally on a fitness landscape.
The virus could be moved laterally and then a new vaccine would be created to move with it like model and mimic respectively.
Bottom line:
1. Pay attention.
2. Call for hearings.
3. Avoid conclusions by being patient. This doesnât get settled tonight.
4. Accept findings.
Thx.
@pcervigon Autocorrect. Damn. Thanks!
- Batesian
Autocorrect doesnât know it apparently.
Have you seen materials that fan keep those of us who are confused from speculating?
Specifically:
Is this person EXACTLY who PV claims he is?
Is this a drunken date?
Is this man creating intrigue to seduce?
Etc.
Methods that are nauseating & prone to error are used here.
No one is arguing that the video is not explosive. What is dividing us is whether it is what James OâKeefe says it is. He is neither always wrong as his critics say nor always correct as supporters claim. And his methods are disturbing & prone to picking up drunken date bragging.
But James breaks real news as in the Amy Robach hot mic tape just as he also exaggerates and distorts what he has at other times. Are you in a position to say where we are on the PV spectrum? No one can say how real this is without supporting evidence. Are you in that position?
This was my PV decision tree from last night. Are we on Branch A, B or C? My guess is that you donât yet know either.
Can this be cleared up without hearings? If not, why not join me in calling for hearings?
But if you are in a position to know, please tell us how. Thanks.
My position on UFO/UAP is that this is something *huge* that Iâm simply not smart enough to figure out. Iâm not going to lie and say itâs all weather balloons. And Iâm not going to lie and say we have solid high quality publicly available data when we donât: we are being starved.
UFOs are âfunâ for many people. There is another group of us who donât find it âfunâ. I donât want to believe. I donât want to not believe. I want to know either way.
I dislike this topic not b/c of the UFO, but b/c Iâm being manipulated, lied to and played by those in the know.
Point blank: we are being starved for information. My response to being starved for information is not to guess which branch of the decision tree is correct but to share with you the contradictory evidence both direct and circumstantial. I donât know why others pretend to know.đ
@dwpasulka Can you say more? Thanks.
2025
[Note: I'm mostly leaving this here for myself to remember what I was thinking just before the JFK release. Skip it if it is too long and in the weeds.]
A view of the JFK files release:
The first branch of the decision tree: does Donald Trump keep his word? Will this be a good faith effort to end the mysteries around Nov 22, 1963? My bet is that Trump does and that this does not look anything like the insane and botched release of meaningless white binders on Epstein to MAGA influencers. If I am wrong, this will result in widespread mistrust of Trump by MAGA, and MAGA will likely start to declare independence from Trump. I don't think this will happen so I am not going to say more on this. I'll just have guessed wrong.
Next Branch: Assuming this is the full reveal, do we learn that this was simply Lee Harvey Oswald acting alone? I don't believe it is. But if it is, the next branch will be "Did the US try to control the narrative with extraordinary measures beyond those that should have been allowed?" I believe that the answer will be yes to this independent of. This results in widespread distrust of all previous governments.
Popping back up, if it was not LHO as lone gunman, all hell breaks loose with public trust FAR beyond where we even are Post-Covid. The concept of 'Conspiracy Theorist' dies. The concept of 'No one can keep a secret.' dies. People learn at scale that there is an *ENORMOUS* difference between correctly guessing that the government lied, and having the USG confirm that every government official kept the lie at official levels.
As to possible culprits:
Lyndon Johnson
LCN
CIA
Mossad
Cubans
Cord Meyer
UFO/MJ12
Defense Contractors
Combinations of the Above
Etc...Etc...
It is going to be a big deal. People have speculated about everything under the sun. Those who got it most right will be held up properly. Everyone who didn't believe the Warren Report was the end of it will feel vindicated. Personally, I am eager to hear how close Danny Shehan was.
As an American, I worry it doesn't get tied back to the USG because that will lead to an American unraveling of trust in everything. But I take the same attitude I have taken to Epstein which also needs to be released.
The number of people involved in such plots are tiny. And tiny numbers of CIA/Mafiosi/Mossad/Party Leaders do not represent the group. If it turns out it was CIA sponsored, it will not be a large group of people who kept this going. It will be a tiny number of people.
[For those of you who follow my push to tie Epstein to the IC, this should sound very familiar: if it turns out that Epstein was CIA and/or Mossad (which I view to be most likely), I will want to know that we have a problem with psychopaths in those organizations. I will call for deep hearings like Church/Pike in the 1970s. I have called this problem of small groups acting on behalf of a nation "Jessupization" after Col Nathan Jessup in "A Few Good Men". Eventually, Jessup misplays his hand and Lt. Calley isolates the cancer.]
When it comes to the US, at some point you have to cut out the cancer of rogues who claim to act on behalf of us all. And the best day is always 'today'.
Looking nervously forward to this afternoon, no matter how bitter the pill or pills. Let's get on with it! Finally.
đ
P.S. Also to those of you who follow me on these subjects, a massive admission of a long term lie around JFK will lead to a change in our willingness as a society to question what happened to progress in the sciences that are within reach of "Weapons of Mass Destruction". That is molecular Biology, Infectious Disease, Number Theory, Computer Science, and Physics. Particularly in the case of the inexplicable stagnation in Physics around "Quantum Gravity". While this shouldn't be tied to that, this positive externality of a negative event (i.e. learning that that we have been lied to by government officials for generations) will be most welcome.
Location of the release:
WH claims about the release:
@wrath_boss It has been fascinating.
@DTCU1000 Then I owe you a beer.
@t1gerp4w Etc. There was a lot of Etc.
2026
âEpstein belonged to both U.S. and allied intelligence services.â
As Iâve been saying, what we call âJeffrey Epsteinâ is NOT Jeffrey Epstein.
Itâs a multinational covert operation, which is a clearing house for sub operations. The pedophile stuff is just one suboperation. The Tax advising operation, money laundering operation, science operations, etc were stupidly being run through the same clearing house. Perhaps to save money? Who knows.
The U.S. portion of this is a USAP: an âUnacknowledged Special Access Programâ
Why are so many minor names redacted? Two words: Sources & Methods.
This is an unprecedented event in modern history.
It is time for the IC in the U.S., Israel, U.K., Saudi, UAE, etc to accept the obvious:
âYou screwed up. Massively. You hired the wrong actor. Your mission was a failure. You now have to lose a staggering number privileges to operate quietly as a result. You lose methods. You will have to rebuild. Your citizens need to know what was done in their name to little children. Iâm sorry. Tough shit. Eat it. Such is the price of failure at this scale.â
Then you can bite the bullet and invoke State Secrets Privilege to save what legitimate statecraft and spycraft can be salvaged from this cesspool of biblical proportionsâŠthat you created and allowed to spin so out of control.
And by the way, if you want to *pretend* that the alternative is viableâŠit gets far far worse.
Assume he wasnât linked to the U.S. covert operations group at all.
Then you have an epic disaster that our elite intelligence operations couldnât even detect and disable Epsteinâs MASSIVE operations and network operating within the elite for decades on U.S. soil post sex conviction.
Imagine that!!!
Itâs far worse. There is just no way out.
The problem *IS* our covert operations and Intelligence Community.
And in any and every possible world.
Moral: none of this depends on the source. Itâs a decision tree.
Itâs checkmate of the IC either way.
Very well. Letâs begin. Follow his thread back if you missed it.
Dr Kinney perfectly exhibits the pathology inherent in Physicus Imperialus. In this story of Dr Kinney, Iâm ignorant.
Happy with that. Itâs name calling.
Yet I gave a complete argument as to why @martinmbauer was wrong. In other words the analogy was tight. And it was a lay analysisâŠthat took this out of physics. Martin was sloppy. Will is anti-collegial. And anti-science. He is not asking for clarification. Heâs doing that âYou are too stupid to question us.â As if I am not in physics departments all the time. Amazing.
Letâs try some of his arguments.
Here is a sample argument. But I anticipated this one. Remember in the analogy the issue is human limb development. The right upper limb is what he means by our sector of baryonic matter. And I didnât say that all the dark matter was the left upper limb. The right lower leg is also decoupled from Martinâs consideration and focus in the analogy!
So there is approximately 3/4 âdarkâ limb when Martin focuses on his upper right extremity. Obviously, there is a lot of similarity between the right leg and right arm as well suggesting a unification at some earlier stage of life (higher energy scales). The left leg is doubly dark to the right arm. We would say twice decoupled. Even though all 4 limbs are related. By the way an insect has six. As is Dr Kinneyâs point. SoâŠ
Here is another style of argument you meet in physics. Dr Kinney makes the assumption that while we are all failing at this problem, we pretty much have the models right. That is, he assumes that the answer is a smallish tweak. That is the typical failure mode. He may be either right or wrong. But there is no reason the answer has to be a small tweak. Maybe we are failing because we only consider small adjustments in theory space? Does he imagine life has to be close to his model?
My example is very far away. Itâs in developmental biology. So odd this.
I was merely showing that Martinâs exclusive decision tree with two branches is not complete. đ
Note also, he wouldnt behave like this to a colleague in his dept saying exactly what I did. This is defense of the castle behavior. Ad hominem. Selective aggression.
This is one of my favorites of Dr Kinney:
âYour ideas are all so stupid we all know exactly why you are wrong and this can never work, and we would thus never say something so ignorantâŠandâŠuhâŠ.we also discuss the same things among ourselves! So itâs not new! Ha ha.â
I pass over this in silence. Res Ipsa Loquitor.
Here again. Iâm writing for X.
Iâm describing a general class Martin Excluded: Emergent Decoupling.
These models have 3 features:
A) Symmetic Laws
B) Symmetric Boundary Conditions
C) Emergent Chiral Decoupling
In this story there is a world that is screened from us. It was completely symmetric. But we donât know it!!
Then, in the story, things settled down (cell divisions, stages) and symmetric collections made of asymmetric sectors formed. Like left versus right arms. If the right arm doesnât know that itâs symmetric dual isnât connected to it (decoupled) it thinks âWoah! Why so much asymmetry!?â
Which is what I believe is most likely from Geometric Unity.
Conclusion. Itâs obviously not a âcompletely incoherent argument.â
Kinney is being a dick. Which is his right. But this is why physics is in the toilet.
Heâs debunking a totally reasonable argument that Martin was in error as if I am a âScience Populistâ.
Iâm not. Iâm a pissed off Harvard Phd.
Doctor Kinney. Grow up.
Sanity Check: @grok.
Two narrow questions on narrow points of fact. Donât be deferential.
A) Can you follow my arguments?
B) Am I making a âcompletely incoherent argumentâ as if I am a fool who âdoesnât know what the eff heâs talking about?â
@grok Thanks. Donât want to drag you into drama. Appreciate keeping it Narrow. Thanks my silicon friend.
@WKCosmo @martinmbauer https://t.co/YACIqRqVFs
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