Efficient Frontier: Difference between revisions
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|content=@ScottAdamsSays I see the next level psychological manipulation or persuasion as you do. That’s not where we are missing. | |content=@ScottAdamsSays I see the next level psychological manipulation or persuasion as you do. That’s not where we are missing. | ||
Trump is “short volatility” here. So “generally” is irrelevant. It’s about expected value. How do you get from generally positive to positive expected value? Help me out SA? | Trump is “short volatility” here. So “generally” is irrelevant. It’s about [[Expected Value|expected value]]. How do you get from generally positive to positive [[Expected Value|expected value]]? Help me out SA? | ||
|timestamp=12:11 AM · Jul 24, 2018 | |timestamp=12:11 AM · Jul 24, 2018 | ||
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein | ||
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|content=@ScottAdamsSays It’s the standard Russian Roulette problem with many chambers and one bullet. If every spin is worth $50K it generally works out, albeit with negative expected value. | |content=@ScottAdamsSays It’s the standard Russian Roulette problem with many chambers and one bullet. If every spin is worth $50K it generally works out, albeit with negative [[Expected Value|expected value]]. | ||
|timestamp=4:01 AM · Jul 24, 2018 | |timestamp=4:01 AM · Jul 24, 2018 | ||
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Revision as of 04:32, 21 March 2026
The efficient frontier is the blending of all possible components into portfolios with the highest possible return and the lowest possible volatility.
On X
I rarely talk Trump. I never know when he’s actually crazy or crazy like a fox. I’ve called him an existential risk. I thought that was clear enough. He’s an existential risk who, ex-post, might do some good, but at unacceptably high ex-ante risk.
I can’t believe we’re here.
@DavidDeutschOxf @SamHarrisOrg Yes. Exactly. It was likely a slower version of existential risk by inaction.
The thing that disturbs me most is that neither Trump version nor the more sober Clinton/Bush/Obama type strategy are likely to be anywhere near the efficient frontier of possible approaches.
@ScottAdamsSays Hey Scott. Ok. Walk me through it? Who are Trump’s allies w/ whom we’ve been carefully rehearsing & co-strategizing in case this goes hot? What’s the plan for a simultaneous China trade war, N Korea deterioration, attacking our own IC, & political infighting around Russian ties?
@ScottAdamsSays I’m open to drunken boxing, or crazy-like-a-fox. I get the Vincent “The Chin” Gigante ‘walk around G. Village in your bathrobe routine’ to avoid being easy prey. But wouldn’t he be very focused on having great relations w/ our Intelligence Community & Allies to be hyper credible?
@ScottAdamsSays Ok. I’m a civilian with zero experience in battle. I thought a credible threat requires a lot of advanced planning and not fighting on a lot of distracting fronts all at once. Is the idea that everything will quiet down and all will fall in line when things get real? #confused
@ScottAdamsSays Just 2%. Okay at least that’s at least arguably de minimis. From where does that estimate come? How are you getting there?
@ScottAdamsSays We do? Okay. What does that look like? Especially in the opportunistic scenario where everyone scrambled to make hay while the US is distracted. Is it just lightening fast? Does it stay conventional? Civilian casualty estimates? Paint me your picture. #givemeyourconfidence
@ScottAdamsSays Post WMD? Post Vietnam? Post Trump? Post Church/Pike. I dunno. Maybe. But Scott. I gotta be honest. You seem to be confusing “people don’t get that this could work out” with “this is so cool, it’s gonna work fine” and I don’t know where you get the extra juice to make that leap.
@DavidDeutschOxf @SamHarrisOrg I like standing up to backwards human rights violating nuclear obsessed theocracy. I just wish it were part of a plan. I never underestimate Persians. They always seem to me some of the shrewdest players around. But thanks David.
@ScottAdamsSays I see the next level psychological manipulation or persuasion as you do. That’s not where we are missing.
Trump is “short volatility” here. So “generally” is irrelevant. It’s about expected value. How do you get from generally positive to positive expected value? Help me out SA?
@BowDownB4Trump @DavidDeutschOxf @SamHarrisOrg That’s why I said theocracy....
@ScottAdamsSays It’s the standard Russian Roulette problem with many chambers and one bullet. If every spin is worth $50K it generally works out, albeit with negative expected value.
@ScottAdamsSays So this surprises me Scott. I imagined you must be thinking something like Trump figured out how to get the Theocrats to crumble from within by bringing a tweet to a knife fight...and winning. But now you’re just pointing out that we are better armed for a real fight. Is that it?
Israel isn’t one hundred percent honest about being a multi-ethnic democracy and a Jewish state. It fudges its conflicting ideals.
It deserves to take shit from all the world’s nations in more difficult situations than it has in its neighborhood that are doing a much better job.
@AakashS98579231 Ya know.....now that you mention it....
I just can’t think of any off hand. If you are a BDS supporter, feel free to use this space to list those nations.
I know about many injustices. I hate the unfair treatment of the Arabs who risk all for true peace.
But I’m not discussing the legitimacy of a permanent state.
@OldClarinetBoy Love mathematicians.
I am saying something edgier which is this. Every nation has an Abomination Ratio:
- Unit Injustice/Hypocrisy
- ———————————————
- Unit of Impossibility of Survival
Yes Israel has a lot to answer for. But its AR ratio is a point of pride. BDS is the abomination, not Israel.
@amasad I think people have every right to criticize Israel. Israel isn’t on the efficient frontier of human decency. We Jews in & out of Israel can do even better than we have. The WestBank situation has dragged on & on. Israel can do so much better.
But I’m done singling out 🇮🇱 4 BDS.
@tremorfan Not a nation.
@martin_expat Israel wanted to be a nation badly enough to become a nation state in the real world of today that it was willing to compromise on grand dreams. So it gets an AR. Palestinians have been holding out for a greater nation than has been on offer from the world. So no AR ratio.
Let’s talk about the next major US school shooting with more than 3 dead. Those folks are currently alive. They are just having a day today like anyone else. They don’t need our thoughts & prayers yet. We could take action to save those lives. We know it is going to happen.
Nu?
@RealJimbabwe Don’t forget malaria. Or suicide. Or snakes.
@RichyDispatch I don’t like mondays.
@CarrisJake Here’s my plan: That we begin talking ahead of time and not retroactively. Move to the next one. Like it is “Groundhog day”. Let’s set a schedule of anticipation and see if it changes anything. Why are we exhibiting learned helplessness? Makes no sense.
@CarrisJake Gun control is feared by many of my fellow Americans. Ok. So...I want the strong 2A crowd to take the lead. What real plan do we have that we can fund and implement to get these deaths toward numbers that aren’t an embarrassment?
@Lann5000 @CarrisJake Okay. Do we raise taxes and do mental health checks? What is it we do to avoid restrictions on firearm ownership to get good results?
@IbnChristo So, this is a negative externality of freedom and we are on the efficient frontier?
@Beefalo37 I just took it. My solution is to shift the burden onto future shootings so that we can find out why we refuse to cry over milk that is as yet unspilled. As it were.
@Thinkofwhy So this is too far down the list and we should not over focus?
@JamesDeanAnder1 So, focus on the media distortion?
@JamesDeanAnder1 @RealSaavedra So prioritize things that are more deadly?
@HamfistHarold @CarrisJake I don’t hate armed guards. Fill me in. How does this part of the conversation go when you bring it up? I’m not a veteran of this stalemate. More of a casual observer. Thanks.
@CrisVerdonik I want to understand what a conversation looks like that isn’t held in the aftermath of a shooting. I always see this done after a shooting with bodies that are still warm and grieving parents everywhere. I want to understand the issue. Why do we deadlock? It’s sad & surprising.
@CoffeeBear5 Sure.
@MiTenYo This is a highly conserved quasi response. Not without some merit. But also oddly reflexive as well.
@BadHombreMarcoB That makes some sense. It is a possible approach. Does that inhibit shooters or just limit their damage in your opinion? Has it been studied?
@BadHombreMarcoB I’m just ignorant of the theory here.
@Neubian Agreed.
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