2: What Is The Portal/lang-fr

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Le portail? Qu'est-ce que c'est?

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Housekeeping

Eric Weinstein: Salut, ici Eric Weinstein. Euh, concrètement, nous sommes époustouflés. Nous venons à peine de publier le premier épisode du Portail, ma nouvelle émission. Et, euh, nous avons reçu des commentaires et réactions que nous aurions difficilement pu imaginer. Donc,bien que nous ayons plusieurs épisodes déjà enregistrés,

[00:00:23] euh, un des producteurs m'a plutôt demandé de faire une impro détaillée et de discuter du concept de l'émission. Donc, pas de script, pas de préparation, euh, il y aura sans doute quelques retouches légères, mais en gros, on s'est dit qu'il serait intéressant qu'on soit tous sur la même page.

[00:00:41] Si vous nous écoutez et si vous vous inscrivez à ce moment de notre histoire, vous méritez de connaître notre mode de pensée, ce qui va suivre, le tout sans arrondir les bords pour votre confort auditif. Donc ce ne sera pas parfait, mais j'epsère que vous apprécierez quand-même ce qui va suivre, c'est à dire,

[00:00:57] euh, une impro riff concernant les perspectives possibles de l'émission "Le Portail". J'espère que vous aimerez.

Le Portail? Qu'est-ce que c'est?

[00:01:13] Bonjour, je m'appelle Eric Weinstein, et vous venez de trouver le Portail. Ceci est notre second épisode. Vous avez peut-être déjà écouté first one dans lequel je m'entretiens avec mon ami Peter Thiel. Durant cette conversation, Peter et moi avons discuté de beaucoup de choses, mais l'un des thèmes primordiaux concerne le fait que, d'une certain manière, le monde qui nous entoure semble avoir été complètement mal expliqué, et pas seulement pendant une courte période, mais peut-être pendant des décennies, sans que personne ne remarque grand chose.

[00:01:41] En tout cas, c'était notre postulat. Le postulat, c'est qu'à cause d'un nombre vertigineux de changements au sein d'un nombre restreint de secteurs, on a mal interprété ce qui se passe plus généralement à travers bon nombre de secteurs. De la même manière, bien que nous ayons généralement joui d'une période de paix et de prospérité relatives, nous avons, d'une certaine manière, été désensibilisés quant au danger grandissant qui vient du violent et abondant potentiel gardé sous contrôle (jusqu'à présent), depuis la situation post 2ème guerre mondiale.

[00:02:16] Donc ces deux caractéristiques du monde d'aujourd'hui -un monde globalement en paix dans lequel le potentiel de violence et de destruction a augmenté, et un monde dans lequel un nombre restreint de secteurs continue d'avancer à toute vitesse, tout en laissant derrière lui la majorité des secteurs dans lesquels il ne se passe pas grand-chose- sont deux caractéristiques relativement rarement discutées, en tout cas sur les canaux officiels.

[00:02:41] Le Portail, c'est ce qui va percer cette bulle. Cette bulle, en laquelle nous croyons, existe depuis les années 70. Presque tout le monde grandit et évolue dans cette bulle d'idées fausses concernant le monde dans lequel nous vivons. Alors, le Portail, qu'est-ce que c'est?

[00:03:04] Le Portail cherche à percer cette bulle, à regarder le monde au-delà de la paresse et de la stagnation rempantes au sein des médias institutionnels à travers les structures héritées en charge de production de sens, et à écouter une conversation différente, une conversation que la plupart d'entre vous ne connaît pas, et dans laquelle des acteurs et noms différents sont mis en lumière, tandis que les experts et commentateurs familiers sortent de la scène.

[00:03:33] Alors, qu'est-ce que pense ce groupe de personnes? A quoi travaillent-ils? Quelles sont leurs croyances? Eh bien, d'une part, beaucoup d'entre eux craignent la complaisance et sont enthousiastes à l'idée de pouvoir traverser un portail et d'atterrir dans un espace différent. Des fois, dans un domaine comme [Convex Hull of Radical Longevity|l'espérance de vie radicalement prolongée]] où, jusqu'à maintenant, presque personne n'est allé au-delà de l'âge biblique de Moïse, établi à 120 ans par convention.

[00:04:04] C'était la limite. Aujourd'hui, certains rêvent d'une durée de vie qui pourrait aller jusqu'à 200 ou 300 ans, si seulement il était possible d'accéder aux mécanismes moléculaires appropriés. De la même manière, dans des domaines comme la physique, il est possible que les deux théories dominantes soient irréconciliables, et par conséquent incomplètes.

[00:04:27] Et si nous pouvions connecter ces théories et créer une théorie plus détaillée et plus précise qui engloberait les phénomènes couverts par la théorie de la relativité d'Einstein et la théorie de physique quantique connue sous le nom de modèle standard de la physique des particules? Est-ce une possibilité? Y aurait-il alors une découverte inattendue? On ne sait pas.

[00:04:49] On rêve aussi d'énergie sans limite. Peut-être parle t-on de la technologie de fusion atomique, ou bien des appareils de stockage d'énergie qui nous permettraient d'exploiter des sources d'énergie bien plus écolo. Peut-être qu'on pourrait trouver le moyen de vivre dans un monde d'abondance dans lequel on pourrait imprimer des objets ou se libérer d'un tas de corvées grâce l'intelligence artificielle et l'apprentissage automatique,

[00:05:10] et apprendre à développer des existences plus satisfaisantes et harmonieuses. Ou bien peut-être que tout cela pourrait déclencher une crise économique dans laquelle peu d'entre nous résussiraient à gagner leur vie dans ce nouveau monde tandis que l'abondance tant recherchée se révèlerait être un cadeau empoisonné. Ce que je veux faire, c'est vous parler très simplement des problèmes auxquels nous faisons face actuellement, problèmes que presque personne n'a envie d'aborder. C'est pourquoi nous vivons dans un monde

[00:05:37] [Embedded Growth Obligation|essentiellement conçu pour une croissance rapide]]dans lequel une croissance plus large ne se trouve plus en analysant le monde d'aurjoud'hui facilement et simplement avec de meilleurs instruments, plus de patience et de méticulosité. Laissez-moi vous dresser un portrait légèrement différent de notre société. C'est un portrait que vous n'avez sans doute jamais imaginé.

[00:06:00] Imaginez une personne qui vient d'avoir son bac. Un, deux ou trois ans plus tard, elle n'a pas trouvé quoi faire de sa vie, et elle continue de trainer autour de son lycée, tandis que de moins en moins de lycéens qu'elle connait continuent d'aller en cours. Dans les faits, cette situation devient de plus en plus glauque. Je pense que c'est essentiellement la situation dans laquelle nous sommes par rapport aux révolutions technologiques que nous avons entreprises.

[00:06:26] Il fut un temps où réussir à émettre des appels longue distance intercontinentaux était vraiment cool, mais c'est maintenant monnaie courante. De la même manière, si auparavant nous étions enthousiastes concernant la sortie du nouvel iPhone, nous le sommes beauvoup moins maintenant concernant les promesses de chaque nouvelle suite d'applications et de fonctionalités.

[00:06:51] Je pense que ce qui compte, c'est combien nous étions enthousiastes avant. A quoi nous attendions-nous? Je pense que nous pensions que nous allions pouvoir soigner toutes les maladies. Ne serait-ce pas fantastique que de ne perdre personne des suites d'un cancer, puisque nous avions déclaré la guerre au cancer au début des années 70? Et qu'est-ce que nous espérions concernant l'énergie?

[00:07:10] Ne pensions-nous pas que la fusion nucléaire était au coin de la rue? Si vous pensez à toutes les choses qu'on pourrait faire. Nous avons appris dans la plupart de ces domaines que continuer d'espérer n'est pas une attitude mature, tout comme continuer d'espérer pouvoir construire un future très différent du présent. Oui, les choses vont s'améliorier un peu, mais est-ce qu'elles vont vraiment dramatiquement s'améliorer?

[00:07:33] Est-ce que nous allons vivre une vie, ici et maintenant, nous permettant un style de vie échappatoire comme dans Star Trek, ou même Star Wars, des sagas néées dans les années 60 et 70? Je pense qu'en général, la plupart d'entre nous a compris que ces rêves sont restés des rêves pendant tellement longtemps qu'ils ont été relégués au monde des enfants.

[00:07:55] Il est possible que des personnes simples d'esprit croient ces choses. Ce qui m'intéresse, c'est que les personnes les plus intelligentes, dynamiques et agentiques recommencent à se parler, tout en ignorant les gens qui ne veulent que freiner notre enthousiasme. Là, peut-être que vous vous dites que tout ça n'a pas l'air très "scientifique".

[00:08:16] Ne devrions-nous pas nous baser sur les meilleurs systèmes à disposition? Par exemple, l'évaluation par les pairs, n'est-ce pas la référence? Eh bien, je dirais que non. L'évaluation par les pairs est une invention relativement récente, et je dirais même que c'est une intrusion au sein des sciences dures. En 1953, quand le mystère de la double hélice fut élucidé par Watson et Crick, ils sont soumis leurs trouvailles à la revue Nature.

[00:08:39] Pourtant il n'y a jamais eu d'évaluation par les pairs. Pourquoi? parce qu'à l'époque, le travail d'un éditeur consistait à décider si les contenus soumis étaient dignes d'être publiés. Et d'ailleurs, l'éditeur à l'époque, si je me rappelle correctement, avait dit que toute personne qui lirait ce papier serait tellement bouleversée par son contenu qu'il ne pouvait prendre le risque de le renvoyer dans un quelconque processus de révision.

[00:08:56] Well, if that's true, let's say peer review isn't really the centerpiece of our science. Is the scientific method the centerpiece of our science? Well, at some level, sure, it's like proof checking, but a lot of the work that we do in science has been incredibly imaginative. And you might even say it's been irresponsible until it comes into final form and can be reconciled with experiment.

[00:09:19] But instead, we've developed a culture in which immediately upon proposing something, we are told that the sine qua non of science is that there be an agreement between theory and experiment. Well, this is wholly untrue. In fact, if you go back to Paul Dirac's great Scientific American article in the early sixties, he says that it is much more important than a physical theory have mathematical beauty

[00:09:47] and that we learn to trust a theory, even when it doesn't agree with experiment, if it has a kind of intellectual coherence to it. But how often are people pointed to something like Dirac's 1963 paper? In fact, you could look to Jim Watson, who's told us that in order to make great advances, we have to be irresponsible.

[00:10:09] Now, this is a very odd feature of the world. Many of our top people do not seem to play by the rules that have been set for everyone else. And the question is, if we are in a situation in which we have unleashed such incredible destructive power as we did with the hydrogen bomb, and in potentially unlocking the cell,

[00:10:28] why is it that we are so incredibly timid about what it is that we might do next? We have all the destructive power that we need already at our fingertips. What we don't have is the ability to escape our fate. In fact, what we need is to find The Portal, to find a way out, to find new economic vistas that will allow far

[00:10:49] larger numbers of people to participate without causing an ecological disaster. If you take all the people, let's say, in India, China, and Bangladesh, what have you, who are leading lives at a far lower economic level than we are, if you were to elevate them to our current level as we have in the United States, you would be causing an ecological disaster.

[00:11:10] Well, clearly we are not going to leave these people behind. We need them to be full participants in whatever beautiful future we're trying to create. And that future has to be ecologically sound because we don't have the ability to despoil the planet as we dream about universal human prosperity. So what are we going to do?

[00:11:28] Well, I think that the most irresponsible thing to do is to stop dreaming, to get our dreams to be so small that we're not embarrassed to share them in public. I think what we need to do is to start dreaming much more aggressively, dream much bigger, and start dreaming in public with each other, harmoniously

[00:11:48] if we can, or have our dreams fight each other, but at least start unlocking the potential of human imagination and not immediately grounding every new idea in some sort of race to see whether we can invalidate it, give it enough of a room to grow. You know, this is how we used to talk about protecting infant industries before we decided that free trade should always be the rule of the day and that we should have no barriers to protect, uh, new ideas in a nursery where they might learn to thrive before testing to see whether they can survive as adults.

[00:12:23] What we're going to do in this program is effectively to declare war. War on stasis. War on group think. War on everything that has enervated our society, and we're going to do it because we have the ability now to compete with the networks that previously grew up to distribute whatever it was that was portrayed as sense-making.

[00:12:44] You can tell that there's something wrong with both CNN and Fox. If you're reading the New York times carefully, you can tell that the narrative arcs in the daily newspaper clearly have to have been thought out to cover many days in long before the facts are known. Somehow we are living in somebody else's reality.

[00:13:03] What we need to do is to return to our own future. Now, there is no question that we might make some serious mistakes. People may die. There may be very serious consequences of experimenting. But it's certain that if we stay here and we do not attempt to grow beyond the problems that we've previously created for ourselves in decades past, that the future is not going to be appealing or powerful enough to evade some of the fates that some people are seeing as being nearly inescapable.

[00:13:33] If we cannot create a larger pie, we're going to have to engage in a lot of zero-sum games. We're going to have to deal an incredible amount with some kind of social engineering project, which, quite frankly, I don't see having any hope of succeeding. We're barely able to hold a conversation. Could we actually hold a constitutional convention if our new technology required that we rethink the boundaries of what constitutes search and seizure?

[00:13:59] Whether hate speech should be included with free speech in our foundational documents? Have we really gotten to a place in which, um, we can only look back because we are afraid to look forward? The Portal is going to attempt to answer these questions. So it might well be asked, how are we going to try to do something different on The Portal that might actually have a significant impact on our society?

[00:14:22] And I'm going to begin in a kind of unexpected place. How are we going to get The Portal to be self-supporting? Well, oddly, when we proposed this podcast, a friend of the program decided that he was in a position, uh, through business success to fund The Portal and to in fact remove the need for advertising from our desire to broadcast.

[00:14:48] And I thought about this long and hard. Of course, it's very appealing to imagine that somebody cares so much about what's happening on the program that they're willing to bankroll it. However, I think we've decided against it, at least initially, and I wanted to share some of my reasoning. The reasoning is that very few programs could possibly afford to do that, and as important as this program is, it's really not about me,

[00:15:10] it's about what can we do with sense-making done individualistically and outside of any kind of institutional control. My belief is that the more people are able to podcasts, the more people are able to use these new channels for outreach, the greater the likelihood that we can create an ecosystem of interesting disruptive ideas to change everything.

[00:15:35] So in fact, it's much more important that we figure out some way of fixing the business model, where all of these podcasts are somehow delivering value that people are at least initially unwilling to pay for, because we've all been taught to expect that these things that we consume electronically are free.

[00:15:53] Well, we want to have the same problem, at least initially as everyone else so that we can work on it. Can we teach advertisers and capitalists to stay the course when somebody says something controversial but responsible, to weather a storm of a boycott? Can we create what I've called risk-vertisers, who actually pledge some loyalty to the people that you most want to see talking about the issues you most want to hear discussed

[00:16:19] if they can do so responsibly, these risk-vertisers are people that we're going to go in search of. So if you have a product that you think is terrific, and you want to reach people with tremendous brand loyalty, I hope you'll consider being a risk-vertiser for The Portal Podcast, and that means, effectively, getting to know us, our audience, and not immediately buckling at the first sign that there's some sort of social media storm coming your way.

[00:16:47] Furthermore, I think we're going to talk about science and we're not going to be dumbing it down. I'm very frustrated that very often when you see top quality scientists going into, let's say, public outreach mode, that they very often adulterate the subject matter in an attempt to make it more understandable.

[00:17:04] Now, of course, that's inevitable when you have people specializing in very difficult subjects that they've studied for years. But I also feel that partially what happened is that we got into a habit of underestimating the intelligence of the audience. Rather than giving the audience the need to look up some terminology to make some forays of their own with the search engine,

[00:17:25] we've gotten them into a complacent state where if they don't immediately understand something, then somehow the fault is with the broadcaster. Well, I think we reject this for a very simple reason. Do you remember when TV was called the idiot box? I know that I'm of an age that that was a very common thing to do once upon a time, but if you look at all of the amazing things that have been happening on TV, it's totally changed the format to watch something like Game of Thrones, or The Sopranos or Madmen.

[00:17:52] And why is that? Because the character lines and the storylines and the development are so much more complex than anything people are able to do in a smaller format that in fact television, quite surprisingly, became the most distinguished media in which one can now write. Well, likewise, I think we need to do the same thing for the public discussion of science.

[00:18:15] We need to draw more of you in and count on the fact that we've been underestimating the intelligence of our followers for quite some time and start playing up to your level, and we may lose you along the way, but I have faith that with our ability to monitor your comments and listen to your feedback, that we can find an entirely new level of explication in which many of you will find that

[00:18:38] far from being left behind by specialists, you are actually able to participate in conversations that have previously been restricted only to experts. So I think we're going to try to pitch it at a higher level. We're going to try to rescue a business model, um, so that we can get more people, uh, with the ability to experiment in front of a camera as I'm doing now,

[00:19:00] but we've also decided to explore some topics that I think could break some serious ground. In particular, I think that one of the things we're really interested in doing is talking about a couple of new economic models that have been shared with the world rather narrowly up until now, one of which involves a, what might be called COSI and immigration, which I'll

[00:19:24] explain later, uh, shows that simply opening borders is in no way a free market solution, that you have to securitize rights and allow people to trade them in order to get free market economics to work in the immigration area. Another of which has to do with bilateral trade, and the geometry, uh, of markets culminating, uh, eventually in a model of humans in which they are allowed to change their tastes.

[00:19:53] Now, it sounds very strange to say that economic theory falls apart when human beings change their tastes. But since at least the late 1970s, uh, we've had an excuse in place in the work of Becker and Stigler that allows us to make assumptions about human beings that are known to be wildly untrue. And the way out, strangely enough, is through differential geometry, the differential geometry of markets.

[00:20:19] So that's something that I think we're going to be very interested in bringing to you. I don't know whether the idea of geometric markets is something that can be easily explained to a mass audience, but this theory of geometric marginalism is in fact a starter theory. That, if that is successful, might allow us to discuss an even more profound attempt, which would be this concept that I've called geometric unity.

[00:20:42] Now, when I talk about getting off the planet, I have no idea whether or not it is in fact possible to go beyond the solar system. Nobody's ever done it, it's been relatively irresponsible to think in these terms ever since we've understood what we're up against, uh, in particular in the form of Einstein's restrictions, through the general and special theories of relativity,

[00:21:03] but I do know this: if we are to have a hope of visiting all of those exotic locations we can see in the night sky when we're far from a city and the moon is not blocking out all of the stars and galaxies, I do know that if we are going to have a hope of visiting someplace truly remote, it's probably going to come through a better understanding of the source code of reality.

[00:21:26] Now, up until this point, we've talked about this in terms of the so-called theory of everything, and if you'll notice, we have a very funny pattern about this. A very small number of highly regarded physicists have been entitled to talk and dream openly about a theory of everything, most commonly in the form of string theory.

[00:21:47] Yet the current string theoretic revolution, which began in 1984 with something called the anomaly cancellation, has largely petered out. True, some people, diehards in the field will continue to say that this is the best time to enter theoretical physics, and that even if some of the original hype was misplaced, that there's no reason to think that the longterm prospects are dim.

[00:22:10] Well, that's not true. We all know that that's not true. Why? Well, we had to buy an enormous accelerator in Geneva in which to test some of our earlier theories, and in fact, while it found the, what appears to be the Higgs particle, it's found very little else beyond the standard model. In fact, nothing of significance.

[00:22:32] Are we going to continue to fund such machines when our successes become more remote? Are we going to continue to be able to attract the top minds as we have always been able to attract them into theoretical physics? Again, I think that as other occupations continue to offer more money and physics offers less stability and less in interest and excitement as a field,

[00:22:54] it's going to be very difficult to compete for talent. If we're going to do something, now is the time. We still have the expertise, we still have enough of the infrastructure. Sure, in my opinion, it may be decaying, and I don't even really particularly get along with this community, but this is the community of greatest agency of greatest intelligence, and it has to be reinvigorated.

[00:23:16] We need to get this community more money, we need to get them more security, and we need to get them once again, dreaming up the future. Now, they brought us the future when they brought us the world wide web, which came out of CERN, when they developed the semiconductor, they effectively invented molecular biology as a side project,

[00:23:34] they ended World War II, and they gave us the communications technology in which our phones communicate with remote towers and allow us to connect to people a world away with very little delay. In essence, our entire economy owes itself to theoretical physics. And are we going to let this field wither and die on the fine because it hasn't been able to succeed

[00:23:58] in roughly 45 years? I would say that this is the place that we have to bring the fight. People have not understood how vulnerable we are when we start to lose our most dynamic communities, and we find ourselves incapable of fighting for the resources either in terms of neurons or in terms of dollars that are necessary to sustain our hope of progress.

[00:24:23] Further, I think we're going to explain a lot of our theorizing, some of which has been covered in the annual edge essays, uh, for edge.org, uh, in which effectively we've engaged in a 10 year strategy. I've always wondered what would be the best way of sneaking a weapon through airport security. Even though I've never attempted to do anything like that, I always thought that the best way of doing it would be to do it in pieces,

[00:24:52] where each piece is not entirely understandable as being part of something that is being screened for. Well, that's what I chose to do in the edge essays that we'll be discussing. I think the first essay I wrote was called "Go Virtual Young Man", which was in response to what I was just learning about in terms of Bitcoin.

[00:25:12] Another one was about kayfabe, or the system of lies that is the substrate of professional wrestling. That was about my fear of an election cycle in which effectively everyone would know that everything was fake, but we would still be somehow dependent, uh, on the pantomime and theatrics in order to conduct the business of our society.

[00:25:34] Another one was on Russell conjugation. Now, Russell conjugation, if you don't know, uh, has to do with how we emotionally shade our language so that people can, can understand what our content is, but they don't realize that we are emotionally coercing them to feel differently about things than they would if they simply thought about them from first principles.

[00:25:56] So there's a large number of essays that I want to discuss with you, including one on anthropic capitalism. Now, the question of anthropic capitalism is simply this: was the last 200 years in anomaly? Was it a very bizarre time in which effectively markets were without parallel in organizing human activity?

[00:26:17] And is it possible, when we say something like late-stage capitalism, that we've actually blown through this period where capitalism is itself a danger to our society? Now, we have nothing else to pick up from it. If we look outside our windows in any major metropolitan area, we'll see that people are engaged in some self-organizing activity, and if our only two possibilities of keeping that going are either to allow the market to run relatively unfettered or to begin telling people what to do is if central command was viable, then we're in a really tough spot.

[00:26:53] I think we're going to have to start thinking about new systems and I don't know what those systems will be. But since we've been able to reach major candidates, like the up and coming, uh, Andrew Yang on the democratic side, I'm at least hopeful that there are places in which these new ideas might have a hearing.

[00:27:11] So, to sum up, what is The Portal? The Portal is a search for some way out of the stasis in which we have lived. If our lives have largely been lived in an intellectual bubble, that dates from the early seventies, it's time to pop that bubble and to find out what's on the outside. I hope you'll join me trying to find The Portal, and we can go through together.

[00:27:34] Thank you.