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Free Speech vs OurFreeSpeechā¢ | Free Speech vs OurFreeSpeechā¢</br> | ||
Academic Freedom vs USAcademicFreedomā¢ | Academic Freedom vs USAcademicFreedomā¢</br> | ||
Diversity vs DEIā¢ | Diversity vs DEIā¢</br> | ||
Professional Agreement vs TheExpertConsensusā¢ | Professional Agreement vs TheExpertConsensusā¢ | ||
|timestamp=5:52 AM Ā· Aug 03, 2024 | |timestamp=5:52 AM Ā· Aug 03, 2024 | ||
Latest revision as of 01:11, 12 March 2026
2020[edit]
Less than 100 hours before the end of voting in the US election, and I am watching @KamalaHarris trying desperately to elect Donald J Trump to the presidency of the United States.
Let this speak for itself.
#ResIpsaLoquitor
We just donāt end up in the same place. Thatās not how life works. Literally, ādifferential successā is one of the cornerstones of our scientific understanding of nature itself due to Darwin and Wallace.
In particular this is not how *any* successful society has worked *ever*.
The amazing @aliciakeys was born with god given talent that she developed as a musician. I have struggled my whole life to make music and canāt get anywhere close to her ability/success.
I *donāt* want equity with her @KamalaHarris. I want her to achieve and capture her fortune.
Vice Signaling: nobody sane wants to listen to politicians, professors, movie stars, rappers, tech billionaires & journalists testify to their own moral superiority over the rest of us mortals who appear to be FAR more self-aware of our human failings.
Trump isnāt selling guilt.
Almost no good parent wants a level playing field for their own children. Have you ever seen a bear that is just as concerned about another bearās cubs?
Almost no one always tells the truth or wants to pay their fair taxes.
But there is more here. Itās not just virtue fatigue.
Letās be honest: virtue signaling in the Democratic Party is also about figuring out how to cryptically serve our donors. Kamala is not going to race to apply āEquityā in her new black Vernacular speech to her hedge fund friends in the Hamptons.
This is anti-virtuous posturing.
So every time Democrats testify to their own goodness, I assume they are preparing to throw us overboard to serve 9, 10, 11 and now 12 figure families. Itās Pavlovian or Skinnerian conditioning. Since Clinton, just before we get economically raped, we hear a lecture about virtue.
āNo Person is Illegal!ā means push out the labor supply curve for employers.
āOnly folks making over $400k will be taxed.ā may mean focus on salary income of the upper middle class rather than non-wage income of the true rich.
āNo Xenophobia!ā means ignore Chinese interference.
āNo islamophobia!ā may mean ignore jihadism so long as Saudi Arabia is making me rich.
āNationalism is evil!ā Means fā- Appalachians et al while we the rich get paid to relocate their sources of support.
Etc.
Weāve been conditioned to despise virtue by the Post-Clinton party.
I donāt ever...and I mean ever...want to listen to the Davos scolds on any subject.
You fly in on a private jet to talk to me: fine, Iāll listen. You do so to scold me about my carbon footprint? Now youāre dead to me.
We the Left need to stop this madness. This is Clintonism.
Most normal citizens want the US to have borders. We care more about our fellow countrymen than we do equally deserving foreigners. We want the BEST for our own kids. We arenāt excited about paying reparations for 1619. And Trump is telling us āSame here.ā So: What are we saying?
The Left needs to appeal to folks who want to get rich, not be taxed into oblivion, get laid and who LOVE their flawed country, their guns & those in uniform. We have to stop appealing *only* to self-hating monks, the hyper-manipulative & the dumb. We were about something before.
@DenDenclipz Itās very odd. When I mention it, my more academic colleagues go berserk.
2022[edit]
Oh no.
Hopefully this is wrong somehow.
If itās is not wrong, then it becomes very important to stop playing according to any old script. Thereās no pretending it is still possible to play according to the script. This is not pre-1945 Europe.
I do not understand what weāre all doing.
@AnnaGBusse May you continue to be right about this Anna. Iām speaking somewhat obliquely, but I do not like that any bold field commander this close to Poland could choose to upset this delicate equation with a mere targeting error. This is way too close to Polish land. As you knowā¦
@AnnaGBusse Nor do I discount the need not to roll over in the face of Putin and his army.
I just donāt sense from anyoneās rhetoric that we realize where we are. We are all engaged in magical thinking about why things are some distance away from the unthinkable.
Both you and me includedā¦
@AnnaGBusse Anyway, Iād rather hear your thoughts on how to stay away from the abyss. If you think Iām wrong about how close we have been to the brink, Iād love you to change my mind. Thx.
@AnnaGBusse Okay. Assuming that I understand (which I may not), here is why Iām baffled. You have described a game with two players: NATO (N) and Putin (P). Both players may potentially be āatrociousā, but they are logical & self-interested: both N&P see annihilation in direct confrontation.
@AnnaGBusse One can, in this description, work backwards. To avoid losing, both sides agree that they will exhaust all moves before triggering any obligate escalation to invocation of Article 5. Ergo, they both agree that they must always leave the other a way out despite their antagonism.
@AnnaGBusse Okay. Here goes: I donāt see this world.
I think it is a first order description at best. When you are this close to NATO territory, every field commander becomes a relevant decision maker. I think I calculated there was fighting 8 hypersonic seconds away from Poland. Wrong?
@AnnaGBusse Then you have the skill level of the players. Biden is 79 with a 1/20 chance of dying in any year with Kamala Harris on deck. He has said that P cannot remain in power and described that N has a āsacred obligationā to protect N (which now includes Poland since 1999).
@AnnaGBusse Then, as if that wasnāt explicit enough, he took away more discretion by clarifying this meant WWIIi. Literally. Which Zelensky (Z) followed with requests for a no-fly zone at one point and āŠæŃŠµŠ²ŠµŠ½ŃŠøŠ²Š½ŃŠµ ŃŠ“Š°ŃŃā (preventative strikes) at another.
Something like that? Ballpark?
@AnnaGBusse To which I cry: Bullshit. Iām not supposed to say Z has been a loose cannon because he has been wronged by P. But Z IS a loose cannon. Itās part of what has made him charismatic & effective.
Even if I grant you a 3-4 player game with N,P and Z, there isnāt enough skill to play.
@AnnaGBusse This isnāt chess. These are battlefields with weather & alcohol & fatigue etc.. There are many players running around miscalculating. The 1st order description is just not good enough to be this close to the rubicon. That map of the conflict is NOT the territory of an actual war.
@AnnaGBusse I even think we agree. Your language is careful:
āto meā
āmost likelyā
āP would/might doā
Take them out? It reads: āThe most Russians will do is use a dirty bomb in a cityā and I know you would never say that. I think we agree to your 1st order description AND its inadequacy
@AnnaGBusse My argument is this: the players arenāt skilled enough to be talking through battle. There are too many actual decision makers, way too close to Poland. Z has been a very effective loose cannon. P has endgame issues from a conventional loss & has non conventional options. Etc.
@AnnaGBusse I think this has been a lot more dangerous than anyone is reflecting. And the entire world is in denial about this. We have given up on being rational. We just kind of hope things will work out as if all that can happen is 20th Cent conventional war w a few 21st century upgrades.
@Not_Gladwin @AnnaGBusse I dunno. There is also the matter of the suspicious coordinates of the impact.
Iām not a battlefield expert. I never served either. Etc.
I know military geeks but am not competent to say what the hell happened or who is lying. Just being honest. Sorry.
@AnnaGBusse And with that āLike any war.ā we see our divide starkly.
To me it is clear that every conventional war involving the thermonuclear powers, US and/or PRC and/or Russia etc, is like no war ever fought before 1952. Even if we fight 100 which do not move into new territory.
@AnnaGBusse Let me end with the words of Edward Treller reflecting on his child with Stan Ulam of Luvov:
āIf we have a slim chance of survival [now], it lies in the possibility to get rid of wars.ā
I think you believe it is business as usual which carries risk. I believe that time is past.
@AnnaGBusse Nice chatting with you Anna. As always. Hope your point continues to hold.
@AnnaGBusse This is Europe. In Vietnam I was under 10. This is quite different. And yes I worry. As you know, I consider Europe to be historically the most dangerous place in the world. The Disneyland of the post 1945 era doesnāt change that. Particularly in central and Eastern Europe.
@sjcorley @AnnaGBusse I have the same sense
@AnnaGBusse Uh. History? High density of reasonably wealthy uncomfortably similar rivalrous advanced societies? Cultural/Ethnic Connections to both US and Russia? Rapid NATO expansion?
Not sure what we are discussing here. Just take Belgrade alone:
@AnnaGBusse I find the Berlin Holocaust memorial to be an extraordinarily visceral physical exploration by way of metaphor that you can wander into madness barely noticing what is happening. Europe excels at this. And Western Europe has seemed very safe for many years.
@AnnaGBusse Weāre talking on different planes Anna. Youāre talking about rational incentives, individual conflicts & maximum likelihood. I am talking about expected value. My point about Belgrade:
ā[T]he city was battled over in 115 wars and razed to the ground 44 times.ā
#RussianRoulette
@AnnaGBusse This strategy of rational incentives among skilled players with non-conventional weapons, well aware of game theoretic traps is coming to an end. Proliferation alone will extend catastrophic weaponry to players all up and down the skill spectrum. We canāt keep playing like this.
@AnnaGBusse Again, we superficially agree. I donāt think weād have had 75+ years of this kind of peace under the old pre-nuclear rules. The expected value of conflict is unbelievably WORSE not better. Same point: you appear to be focused on maximally likely outcomes vs my expected value.
@AnnaGBusse The period of 1945-today has been fairly quiet, free and prosperous in (western) Europe. And nuclear weapons have been responsible for some measure of that. Which is disguising what has happened. The confusion of S Pinker āEverything is Better.ā
@AnnaGBusse Sorry. Do you not see a difference? Honest question.
@AnnaGBusse Didnāt see a response. So Iāll start filling in. The has been post Poland (1999?), Latvia (2004?) etc. coming into NATO. Itās extraordinarily close to the Border, particularly around Lviv. Russia isnāt using a proxy army. The level of weaponry used. Etc This is a higher madness.
@AnnaGBusse Anna, I donāt get the conversation. Maybe the idea is that youāre a political scientist & Iām focused on physics.
Our non conventional weaponry is post business as usual IR and PolySci. We are supposed to sense that everything is different post 1952-3. This wonāt work for long.
@AnnaGBusse Agreed. I think I better understand your perspective and I donāt disagree with your claims much. I just donāt think there is a long term future if that is the reality we accept. Most of the time we WILL be fine. Mostly nothing will go wrong. We can at least agree on that. š
2023[edit]
@jordanbpeterson I donāt know Doc. After the pull out from Afghanistan, Kamala being second to the presidency, and the president having a 1/20 chance of death in any year, I think we are just tired of living and mainstaing this beautiful planet.
Seligmanās āLearned Helplessnessā at global scale.
@hereforElon @jordanbpeterson Thatās what they do: Prebunk any one capable of forcing investigation.
@brucefenton @jordanbpeterson Are you kidding???
@brucefenton @jordanbpeterson You have got to be kidding.
@mdotgru @jordanbpeterson Sorry to lose you. This is happening at two levels: national & planet-wide.
At the national level Ukraine must defend itself from its aggressor.
But you have to use both lenses. Backing a massive thermonuclear power into a conventional corner in a 1/2 proxy war is totally new.
@mdotgru @jordanbpeterson The word has seen many wars. And eastern/Central Europe has had its borders redrawn many time. But this post-Thermonuclear scenario is entirely without meaningful precedent. And we are pretending it is merely another conventional war.
Q: Do you believe Claudine Gay is a top scholar and the right president needed to lead and advance our leading US university and that those who oppose her are white supremacists?
A: Read her scholarly writings. I guess my black colleagues who find her beyond embarrassing are all white supremacists.
Q: Do you believe we have a border problem we do not know how to solve?
A: I believe this is absurd.
Q: Do you believe we have a āgang shoplifting in broad daylightā problem that we do not know how to solve?
A: I do not. It could be solved instantly.
Q: Do you believe Kamala Harris Donald Trump, or Joe Biden are fit to be commander in Chief against Putin & Xi?
A: I donāt think anyone smart believes this.
Q: Do you believe we cant get to the bottom of COVID 19 and our involvement with the Wuhan Lab through @EcoHealthNYC?
A: No. And it killed millions.
Q: Do you believe we have a free press asking for hedge fund records or even the most basic hedge fund questions about a dead individual child trafficker who they report as a ādisgraced financierā while no one in New York appears to claim to have regularly traded with him?
A: I have been told that editors claim there is no interest in this story and that āThe world has moved on.ā Which I can prove are false claims
Q: Do you believe social media companies donāt secretly manipulate truthful communication at the direction of government to preserve official disinformation?
A: No. I think we have the facts on this.
Q: Do you believe there is an insoluble homelessness problem in San Francisco.
A: Xi visited and it got solved instantly. Itās insane.
Q: Do you believe the IC, defense department and US Aerospace companies are under effective federal oversight by Congress with respect to whatever is alleged to be going on with UAP threatening restricted military airspace?
A: Donāt even start. This is nuts.
Q: Do you agree that it is normal for fundamental physics to stall out for 40 YEARS on a dead end and no one can get a government grant to hold a series of conferences:
āBreaking the Log Jam: Alternatives To String Theoryā
āParticle Physics after String Theory: Other Voices, New Approaches?ā
āShould we push on the closed door that says āPullā: Gravitizing the Quantum as response to the 70 year failure of Quantum Gravity.ā
A: You could save our pre-eminent scientific community from madness in a year by destroying the need to listen to those physicists who have never predicted anything that might work over decades of avoiding the subject of the actual physical world we see in the laboratory. You arenāt a physicist if you arenāt focused on the actual physical world. Much less a leading physicist. Itās that simple. This is a matter of paying theorists to rebel against the failed generations of people pretending to do high energy physics while working in imaginary worlds that do not exist.
Q: Do you believe that drawing any connection between Islam and Terror is Islamophobia?
A: Ask your close Muslim friends. They will tell you all about the problem with Islam and terror if they trust you. They as Muslims would usually be FAR more āIslamopbicā than you are if that were a real thing. Reductio Ad Absurdum.
Q: Do you believe that the CPI is a state of the art Cost-Of-Living measure as claimed?
A: It is a fake gauge to undercount inflation. Tax brackets & entitlements are indexed so it is a wealth transfer program of a size one cannot easily contemplate pretending to be a measure of the cost of living. COL is a TECHNICAL term for a measure that prices consumer well being not goods. The entire house of cards rests on work on āSuperlative Index Numbersā of a single obscure Canadian economist who does not fully understand Index Theory. You can prove it is fake by asking the @BLS_gov how it computes COL without taking in PREFERENCE DATA, without which there is no COL possible. Itās a fake measure to undercount inflation.
Etc. āā
I believe this is *ALL* just 100% fake.
2024[edit]
My reaction to the Trump verdict is pretty simple. This is about previously shared *tacit* understandings needed for the functioning of a free society.
The current case and verdict seems similar to the Bork confirmation battle from almost 40 years ago: it is a sign of the breakdown of previous *shared* tacit understandings between the parties that made the US both strong and functional.
To the Democratic Party leadership, Trump represents the breakdown of an understanding that the parties not allow a populist outside their perception of a window of allowable candidates. This is akin to *their* contention in 1987 that Bork represented a nominees outside the tacit agreement not to nominate extremists. Thus they mounted a new campaign of extraordinary measures to enforce their perception.
To the Republican Party, the Democratic leadership is innovating never before seen warfare and immoral tactics by *initiating* extraordinary warfare in violation of the tacit agreement to accept the Republican Partyās right to propose reasonable candidates without hysterical bed-wetting behavior. They believe the Democratic Party is breaking the tacit agreement not to prosecute presidents or pursue legal action as part of a campaign.
Leaving the issue of who is right aside temporarily, what is happening is the acceleration of the continuing breakdown of *SHARED* **TACIT** ASSUMPTIONS. These are the backbone of our previously functional country. They are not written down. You canāt look them up
Trump and Bork are nominees portrayed as madmen by one side, that are so extreme as to require extraordinary measures. Democratic hardliners will celebrate. What will come back is a series of prosecutions by Republicans that the Democratic Party will see as evidence that Republicans are inexplicably evil.
As for what I believe? I think the Democratic Party leadership is acting like shortsighted decisions to open the doors to hell donāt matter because many are in their 80s and arenāt going to be around long enough. And they donāt care enough about their own children or their country to care about the world they leave behind after their demises. I have always said that Trump poses an existential threat. Biden joined that club a while back. He should be removing himself at his age and in his condition and Kamala should not be a heartbeat away from being commander in chief of the worldās pre-eminent thermonuclear power.
What do I want? Itās laughable. I sound delusional.
I want all these people gone, removed by their partiesā middle aged wise men and women so that we arenāt forced to play this out. I want some vital person in their 40s with military and government experience and a technical background to be in the Oval Office giving the speeches needed to restore our nation. I donāt care which party at this point. Someone who has seen action and loves America. I donāt care the party, the race, the gender, the sexual orientation or anything else at this point .
The fact that such a vision admittedly sounds insaneā¦even to meā¦.tells you everything about how these people have shifted our tacit understandings of ourselves. We have accepted madness.
Adults would never have let this happen. The aged, ironically, have simply cleared out *all* the adults.
How do you ask a badly misbehaving Octogenarian: āIs your mother or father at home?ā
I am more concerned with my children at this point than either Biden or Trump. We are going to play this out as we did Bork for our foreseeable future. Itās so insane.
š
BREAKING: "IN SURPRISE MOVE, THE NEW YORK TIMES JOINS PSEUDO-SCIENTIFIC FAR RIGHT AGEIST CONSPIRACY THEORY TO DISCREDIT PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN."
I'm sorry: you don't get to do that. You are not a newspaper. We don't know what you are, but you hunt everyone ahead of your narrative.
Let's face the cold hard medical facts: Joe Biden has been cognitively unfit for office for his entire term. This is not new. This is not subtle.
You the @nytimes have suddenly stopped covering for him. Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump should be anywhere near the Oval Office, the Nuclear Football or the life and death decisions which come with the presidency.
How dare you. We have been shouting the above at the top of our lungs and begging you to just report the news.
By posing as a news organization you are a danger to planet earth. We are a Thermonuclear power with security responsibilities for the free world.
Either become a newspaper or stop publishing. To do neither is evil personified.
Note: Kamala Harris is not cognitively qualitied to be Commander In Chief of the US Armed forces either. I am well aware that she is black and female. That has no bearing on anything. There are many black females who are fully qualified to take on the oath of office.
Enough with hunting Democrats who refuse to sing from your sullied hymnal with aspersions, hit pieces, and defamations.
Report the news or shutter your doors. Period.
Call on BOTH TRUMP AND BIDEN to step aside. We have been at this for years.
I say this calmly: this is madness. You have been covering for insanity. End this now.
If you think about it, Vice President Kamala Harris seems to be unusually obsessed with Markov Processes:
@Jason Itās a vibe. ;-)
I understood from US Democrats that āDemocracy is on the ballotā in ā24.
Okay. So, I would like to VOTE against @KamalaHarris becoming the nominee of my party, specifically after hiding @JoeBidenās dementia/cognitive decline.
How do I *VOTE* to keep democracy on the ballot?
The day after @JoeBiden mysteriously abandoned his campaign to @KamalaHarris, my friend, neighbor and independent candidate for Vice President of the United States @NicoleShanahan called a fairly technical brainstorming session to geek out and strategize.
Immediately afterward, she wanted to record a podcast and wasnāt taking any excuses like the extreme heat or exhaustion.
What are she and @RobertKennedyJr focused on? Policy. Ideas. Listening. And they are listening to a wider and more eclectic variety of voices than either party.
What were the ground rules she set for the podcast? None. At all. She didnāt try to script, direct, manage or circumscribe me in any way. āJust tell us what you really think.ā For a VP candidate, I couldnāt believe it.
Nicole is always incredibly smart and ready to see the big picture, as well as to geek out and get into the weeds. She explained that she wants the voices that people know they want but who canāt get the time of day from either of the two parties to have a home. And she wants that to speak for her campaign. Amazing, right? Itās so unfamiliar.
I havenāt talked about Nicole publicly because our conversations and relationship have been private up until now.
Wellā¦Now that Iām outed, let me say this. @NicoleShanahan is a force of nature who loves to get technical and has the best interests of our country at heart in every conversation.
But among all things she is, I would say she is a mom, and a ferocious one when it comes to those in no state to properly defend themselves. When I mentioned my love of Angeli Gomez, the Texas woman who took off her heels to hop the fence and rescue her children in Uvalde when the cops with handguns were afraid to go up against the shooterās AR-15, Nicoleās eyes lit up. āThat is the energy. That is who we represent. People unafraid to fight like hell to leave a better world for their descendents.ā
So have a listen to this podcast. She brings it around to Coasian Economics (!), the true history of peer review (!!) and many more topics you have not heard about from Kamala or Trump.
Nicole is going to be an important force in civic life well beyond whatever happens in November. Iām really honored that she would chose to podcast and strategize with me the day after Biden dropped out.
This is a woman who cares deeply about ideas, listening and fighting for the world in which her daughter will live. You donāt need to take that from their ads. You can just listen to her run this podcast and feel it. Or take it from me.
Please follow @NicoleShanahan and subscribing to her podcast on YouTube. Then have a listen and tell me what you heard? Thanks in advance and hope you enjoy it! š
Given what is going on in our election cycle, I for one would like to hear more from those who consider the US electorate as the leading threat to electoral integrity.
And I am not merely being snide. I believe that my/our betters in the so-called 'Elite', have developed an entire academic theory wherein the US citizen has oddly become the principal threat to American Democracy.
Here:
"Left to their own devices and the tender mercies of candidate ads and outside groups, voters do the best they can, but their abilities are limited." -Brookings
I get it. While that is not wrong, it is not exactly a ringing endorsement of democracy: the *voter* is the weakest link within this Brookings framework.
Am I even reading this correctly?? Help me out here:
"We need not recount here the *devastating* effectiveness with which Donald Trumpās *insurgent* candidacy *steamrolled* the traditional gatekeepers, *commandeered* media attention, and mobilized what some of his backers called his ātroll army.ā However, the weakening of gatekeeping was not limited to one candidate or one party. The Democratic Party establishment found itself barely able to contain the *insurgency* of Sanders, even though he was not a Democrat and he did not win a majority of self-identified Democrats except in his home state of Vermont and neighboring New Hampshire.
Neither candidate changed the system all by himself. Rather, both saw and *exploited* the invisible primaryās fragility. Candidates could *bypass* traditional moneymen by reaping donations online, tapping deep-pocketed tycoons, or funding themselves. They could *bypass* traditional media by using social platforms like Twitter and Facebook, and they could *hijack* traditional media by behaving outrageously. They could treat their lack of endorsements as a mark of authenticity." -Brookings (Emphasis Mine)
I would like to propose a discussion. The authors of this Brookings Piece, Prof. @raylaraja and @jon_rauch have an interesting perspective. Jon Follows me. I would like to propose we discuss this in a civil and intellectual manner with the insurgents themselves.
I am friends with @JDVance and @NicoleShanahan and friendly with @RobertKennedyJr. I think this would be an amazing discussion. No name calling. Just people who want the best for the United States.
Let's get beyond the vitriol. I will say that I think this is the conversation we are all dying to hear. So I ask, could we have a discussion between any representative of @KamalaHarris's camp, and with my friends @JDVance and @NicoleShanahan with Professor La Raja and Dr. Rauch? I will personally gaurantee that it stays civil. If you know me, you know that this is how I try to approach all things of this nature.
And if we cannot discuss this paper openly, let's understand why not. Is everyone too busy? There is really no good reason not to have this discussion around such an important *published* paper. So let's enjoy our free speech and have at it. The link is here:
What do you say, Kamala, Nicole, JD, Ray and Jon? Thanks for considering this and hearing me out. š
We have always supported, loved and voted for Kamalaā¦and Eastasia.
It is amazing to see what can be said unburdened by what can be thought.
I would like another candidate. I did not vote for this person. I do not know what this speech pattern is. But it is constant, frequently tautological and generally vacuous. My concern is this:
I believe we have been governed by a small group around Joe Biden rather than Joe Biden for most if not all of this presidency. Kamala feels like a continuation of that.
āIt doesnāt matter who the figurehead is, the party will govern through a tiny group making the titular president less important.ā
In which case we should want to meet, vet and vote on who is actually going to be doing the governing. Not listening to some idiosyncratic improvisation on a talking points memo.
For me, this has little to do w/ Kamala. It's:
Democracy vs TheDemocracyā¢
Science vs TheScienceā¢
Privacy vs TheTermsOfServicePrivacyPolicyā¢
Free Speech vs OurFreeSpeechā¢
Academic Freedom vs USAcademicFreedomā¢
Diversity vs DEIā¢
Professional Agreement vs TheExpertConsensusā¢
I stopped at 240 Characters on this one, just so that it would all be displayed. Feel free to add your own kayfabrication examples. Many of us can finish each otherās thoughts at this point and would come up with the same basic lists:
My friend @BridgetPhetasy, on Feb 12, 2024.
Those now Gung Ho for Kamala are part of this complex of bald institutional lying.
This was always a lie. From a week and a half before the June 27 debate w/ Trump, here she is tweeting that she is not crazy.
The MSM gaslit all who dared use their own eyes to speak the truth about what we were all seeing. This was monstrous.
@BostonGMWatch @BridgetPhetasy Yes we have.
@MemoryAtlasX @BridgetPhetasy Yes we did.
@CathroJennifer @KamalaHQLies Such an odd moment. Thx.
@SpitBubblesInc @KamalaHQ Or unethical! This is very twilight zone for a scientist. Sorry.
Honestly, Iād be happy if those of you who see me as clearly actively supporting *either* Kamala or Trump unfollowed. Itās pointless to be in communication if that is what you are getting from this account.
I donāt understand how you think. And you donāt grasp how I think. Thatās okay. We just didnāt connect. No hard feelings.
Be well.
Wow. This is not even in the right zip code.
A āTrump Voterā is not a Trump enthusiast. Many Trump voters despise Trump.
A Trump voter is someone who has said: āthe expected value of a Trump Presidency minus the expected value of a Kamala presidency is positive.ā
I am trying to figure this out myself. For example, suppose one thinks every terrible thing about Donald Trump, including that he is irresponsible enough to risk getting us into nuclear war. Only, she also thinks he is *less* likely to do so than Kamala Harris who covered up and continues to cover up a Commander in Chief with dementia during a half proxy war involving our main thermonuclear rival, and who herself seems installed by a primary-avoidance coup, as well as clueless and air headed.
Why does that voter need not to be demeaned? Maybe that person is actually seeing something Harris voters have totally missed.
Maybe that voter had a child whose school encouraged cutting off that kids breasts or genitals during teen years which are temporarily awkward for almost everyone. Maybe that person had a violent recidivist criminal or illegal alien rape or kill their niece while a prosecutor or border patrol did little to aggressively protect the innocent because of a progressive agenda.
Save your pity for the poor Trump voter. He or she isnāt necessarily below your or my level of understanding.
I donāt think I can vote Trump. But I donāt think I can vote for Kamala Harris either.
The Democratic Party, is out of its mind. We arenāt the party of the educated because we are plausibly the smarter party anymore. The educated professionals inside institutional employers simply became an interest group to be slopped at the trough. Just like hedge fund managers and unions.
We arenāt Anti-war. We arenāt Pro-democracy. We arenāt for a level playing field. We arenāt pro-family. We arenāt for Free Speech and against mind control.
We arenāt simply the good guys these days. Iām sorry to be the one to break it to you.
@Nero1131171 š
What we sounded like in February 2024, discussing Kamala Harris, openly doubting then if Biden was going to make it through to November.
Thereās a reason thereās a swarm of bot level accounts (and people) attacking our credibility. This isnāt a random series of events after all.
@iamLeonHill Thanks Leon. It just sucks not being able to confront the hidden thing directing the constant attacks. Closest Iāve come is to have someone in the party say āWe have to swarm and attack you given your critique. Itās not personal, itās just politics.ā
Itās incredibly obvious. But it is so obvious that it has to be made dangerous to say it. Like āWhat are we doing in Ukraine *exactly*?ā or āWhy are we inducing children towards surgical irreversible self-mutilation and self-sterilization? or āIf Epstein was a disgraced hedge fund manager in FX, who was Epsteinās prime broker and where is the history his supposed trades?ā
Itās so fake, as to be self revelatory.
In my model, every Republican who *strongly* supports tbe ārules based international orderā is at least quietly supportive of what Kamala represents over Trump.
This is about NATO/Trade/Arms/CentralBanking/EU/IC to them. Itās business and geopolitics. Itās not about personalities or party.
Trump is about threatening that order.
Not destroying it mind you. But potentially threatening it enough that it is forced into far more change than would occur under Kamala. Particularly with RFK jr, Tulsi, and Elon on board. None of whom is in any way a Trump Clone.
This is about ensuring seamless continuation of the international agreements, and was to be expected. In my opinion.
A lot of Kamala supporting skeptics are asking me what I mean by āDonald Trump may not be allowed to become president againā in 2024
I think I am going to use this opportunity to show you why many sceptics, debunkers and educated people who reflexively and derisively target others as conspiracy theorists, are rapidly losing *everyone* smart and independent. Here goes:
I am suggesting that the 2024 election may be āSavedā. I am suggesting that our U.S. democracy may be āFortifiedā between now and November. That right now there is a āconspiracy unfolding behind the scenesā. I am suggesting that Americans may be saved from āRussian electoral interferenceā by an āinformal allianceā involving tech ābusiness titansā.
I am suggesting that the possibility of āa vast, cross-partisan campaignā representing an āan extraordinary shadow effortā hidden, against all odds, from public view by complicict journalists who make sure not to write stories about it and editors who spike any remaining stories that mention it until after the election.
In short I am suggesting that there is right now a massive āconspiracy unfolding behind the scenesā. That āshadow campaignersā are secretly engaged in work that has ātouched every aspect of the electionā despite the lack of any stories from complicit mainstream news desks.
So what has all this to do with the army of insufferable character-assassins clothed as skeptics who laugh and laugh and laugh at conspiracy theorists?
Well, the conspirators confessed to the above after the 2020 election cycle. That is, it is those actually running cover for conspiracies that most aggressively label and smear those trying to piece together the shadow efforts as āconspiracy theoristsā. Imagine a world so perverse where *correctly* labeling an actual conspirator is turned into an act of reputational self destruction even though the conspirators will later confess and brag about the whole thing while taking open victory laps.
Genius no? Diabolical genius, is still genius.
It that sounds far fetched, pathological, improbable, and diabolical to you, welcome to the club. It does to me too. But THAT *IS* WHAT HAPPENED exactly back in 2020.
The conspirators still arenāt really telling the truth. But what they *admit* to while bragging and taking victory laps is jaw dropping all the same.
Donāt believe it? Read the confession:
What I said before the Harris v Trump debate.
Kamala Harris is much smarter and more capable than she has appeared as VP.
Donald Trump is too old.
The game is rigged by a nexus between legacy media like ABC and party leaders to be a closed system.
Donald Trump is not the same man who won in 2016. Not by a long shot. A near death experience is life changing. So is age in a world dominated by novelty and new media.
Trump does not fully understand the optics of fighting with women browner and younger than himself.
āOptics create their own substanceā
Or āThe Optics are the Substance.ā
āāāā
I think Iām doing okay with the above. Open to being told what I am missing or can improve.
Just got some further encouragement for my model of this election cycle above from Donald Trump today.
Exactly what I have been attempting to say. Almost too perfect:
Now I know from experience that this will sound to the partisan camps like I have an angle. I do not. There is no money in it. No job on the other side in a new administration. I donāt know how to view this.
Iām obviously not pro-Kamala. Iām obviously not pro-Trump.
Like many Americans, I donāt see a game or a process that I recognize.
Iāve seen 13 previous elections that I can remember. Iām now watching something I canāt bring myself to believe. Something Iāve feared since before my essay on Kayfabe. And now itās here.
So I am just saying what I think I see.
š
As I said when you & I spoke on Monday before the debate:
Iām not sure that Trump will be āallowedā to assume office.
And Iām not sure that Kamala & Trump both make it to November.
It doesnāt matter how it sounds. The crazy part *is* happening. Now. Again.
Iād stop golfing.. https://t.co/1kdzMGopAK
The weird thing is I think Trump agrees with you Andrew. And he is innovating.
Perhaps that is why there now seems to be a new concept of the āSuperTicketā.
I donāt think we are getting it; Iāve never seen this strategy.
If thatās right, then Itās @KamalaHarris / @Tim_Walz vs The Traveling Wilburys of @elonmusk @JDVance / @TulsiGabbard / @RobertKennedyJr / @realDonaldTrump / @VivekGRamaswamy. Why do we print lawn signs with two names anyway? Thatās just the kind of question Trump would ask.
Itās *not* a āUnity Ticketā or a āTeam of Rivalsā if I am correct. Those are old ideas and I think this isnāt something we have seen before. I think he is inventing a new strategy, the way a business man would. We just donāt have language for it.
Itās an innovation: the SuperTicket for lack of a term.
Here is what I sorta expect to happen:
Imagine if Trump at some point later this month were to give a speech and say that he knows you may not be able to support him. And that he totally doesnāt care if you *hate* him. Something vaguely like:
āI understand if you canāt support me and canāt vote for me. Maybe you are worried about J6. Maybe you donāt like me. Maybe you want to keep your job or your family together. I get it.
Iām asking for you to vote for *any* of these people as if they were running for president because I would do that if it werenāt me. We are a brain trust. Ask any of us. We are brown, democrats, male, business people, veterans, republicans, female, white. We are America. And we want to get you real and better options for next time in 2028. Younger people. People with new and better ideas. If you canāt vote for me, pick one of us, and tell your world you are voting for her or him. I wonāt take it personally. Thank you for risking your neck for our team and for America.ā
I think that speech or one like it would probably solve my problem. I donāt hate Trump. I think he is shrewd. And I think he loves America. But he doesnāt sit well with me either and, like you, I donāt think I can vote for him. There is a big block that I donāt want to get into right now. But it is real.
I just think he has figured this out. I know half of these 6 people personally. And I would vote for *any* of them over Harris / Walz. I think if Trump is as smart as I think he is, he could be gearing up to solve Blue Americaās āTDSā problem head on. Which will break every model of Trump the egomaniac.
He has softened and had a near death experience. And, according to math, there are 6! =720 Lawn signs possible. You could print them on demand to say:
Tulsi
RFK jr
Elon
Vivek
Vance
Trump
Indicating Your politics are not pro Trump.
Look, Andy: Elon and Vivek could set that up with Trumpās blessing in an afternoon if Trump wanted it. It would change everything as an October surprise.
I donāt think Trumpās ego is as fragile as last time. But weāll just have to wait and see. And we wonāt have to wait long.
Best,
Eric
This is very much @NicoleShanahanās vibe, and inspired by her. I donāt know why she isnāt part of this gang of 6! But I am not running strategy. Iām an outsider looking in. Iām not advising anyone at all. Iām just observing.
I was advising at least a little bit to Nicole. Nicole has more great ideas. She needs to be in here.
@CapitulApe @KamalaHarris @Tim_Walz I want to know that too.
Fair point. I agree with you that Donald Trump is not thinking about āmeā.
But at least he isnāt pretending to think about me while texting me constantly:
āHey Eric,
Itās Kamala. May I ask a favor from you?ā
Let me guess. You want free labor. You want an endorsement. You want a contribution. You want, want, want. You are counting on me. I can make a difference. We are a team. We are change. We are moving forward. You need $30.
Do you even hear yourself?
I have an ask of my own: STOP.
I voted for you Mr President. Enthusiastically, the first time. My concerns were as invisible to you over 8 years as they are to Kamala Harris today.
May I make a request? Just be authentically fake. Have fun. Live a little.
Itās okay. Youāre now rich. Enjoy the Vineyard. Iāve loved it every time Iāve been there. Just stop badgering me for free labor and $30 while lying to my face.
Thatās all.
š
@Areness_ I do it to stay sane. But I get answers back from volunteers too. Itās actually not all automated.
@radjay Bots send out, but volunteers sometimes respond. I do it as a tiny meaningless protest against the bots. To stay sane.
Kamala Harris is forced to defend inconsistent things that make no sense.
Whether she is smart or stupid is irrelevant. Having to explain things constantly that are interest driven as opposed to intellectually driven or ideologically consistent makes her sound terrible.
I have no idea what your post is referencing. She sounds terrible.
@MuldoonMartin @Ally_Sammarco Very efficient self indictment. Perfect.
Thanks for that.
Blocked. Good day.
Appreciate your tweet. It would be even better if you said āIn my opinion it seems like you have been riding that lineā¦ā but you are acting as a critic. Iām not against critics. āCome on Ericā was also weak in this context for blocking a perpetually annoying detractor account if you are looking for constructive feedback and criticism.
The LOL, LMAO, ROTFL, world is not critics as I see it. Itās bot level bs. They use words like Clown, Libtard, Commie, Charlatanā¦in place of having a point. I try to block them immediately so I can respond to constructive accounts. As I am doing now with yours:
Censorship is not personally insulating yourself from trolls, assassins, hecklers and detractors.
That is a response to yours. No venom.
The Current President of the United States is 81 years old.
He appears to have been deposed from re-election by an 84 year old Silent Generation power broker Nancy Pelosi installing a Boomer without primaries or dispute.
Every post-Boomer from GenX or the Millenials has has been eliminated before the general election. See graphic.
We have a silent generation president 32 years after our first Boomer President.
Democrats are using Springsteen at 75 to give Kamala street cred with the youth.
Sir: Why destroy any lingering legacy or gravitas on this? Itās an unwinable point at a self-evident level. As per the above.
My current model is that the Democratic Party establishment and leadership has either gone crazy, or is trying desperately to get Trump elected to spite Kamala. The arguments chase away men. Younger people. Parents. Hispanics. Blacks. Entrepreneurs. High energy people. Etc.
Who is coming up with these arguments? They clearly havenāt been focus-grouped. Maybe this is just my being on the spectrum. But the arguments are self indicting. They donāt need to be disputed. They just die on contact with their targets.
If you are a Democratic strategist, I would love to hear your thinking. Please let me know. Iām unable to understand this strategy and would like to at least be able to steelman it. Thanks.š
Are you also watching the brain trust of tbe Democratic Party who lost this election, now trying to figure out HOW they could possibly have lost this election?
As a highly visible Democrat who never thought this was going to be close or a ānail biterā, and who said publicly that the the polls were off and that there was reason to think that preference falsification could result in a *landslide*, do you think anyone would pick up the phone and call? There is zero interest. Not one intern. Not one consultant.
This is exactly like String Theory. For 40 years string theorists have hermetically sealed themselves in an imaginary universe where they are succeeding because they became the arbiters in a system called Peer Review. The Lords/Peers of String Theory do not talk with, and do not listen to commoners. As a result they enter into a curricular conversation.
Listening to what @maddow has to say about @KamalaHarrisā part in @SpeakerPelosiās brilliant strategy with @PeteButtigieg to help @SenSchumer after @donlemonās insightful analysis mirroring Joy @thereidout brutal truths following the @NPR @cnn exposes of Trumps devious plans is exactly the String theory vibe.
What does Cumrun say about Andyās latest idea to build on Lennyās insight to get around Evaās paper showing that Ashokās plan to use Juanās discovery that Brian and Michio discussed recently on the 13th anniversary of Shamitās paper tweaking Davidās original epiphany, can only work if some speculations of Cumrun are true to begin with in Euclidean signature?
Oh and by the way, there are no other approaches beyond String Theory, because anyone not part of this circle is a self promoter saying āonly wordsā. We will only need another 100 years before it gives fruitā¦
Well, this is what a cult sounds like. Communists build such elaborate circular worlds of internal references. As do members of spiritual, academic and religious orders.
My claim is that the Democratic leadership is a lucrative cult. Itās not a party. Itās not trying to win. Itās trying to serve its members and work towards winning as little as possible, consistent with first serving the personal needs of its senior leadership. Itās trying to pay its leadership in riches, prestige and control. Itās a payout system. What are all these people making financially? I donāt know. Nancy does alright. So does Rachel. But not all payment is monetary.
That is why their conversation is so bizarre. They need to fire each other. But the entire point of our party as they see it is to serve as a trough.
Take it from a pre-Dick Morris Democrat also focused on physics: the 1992 election 32 years ago brought us this madness in just the way that Ed Witten, Michael Green and John Schwarz brought us The Holy Revelation of String Theory 40 years ago in 1984.
The most important part of these cults is sealing out the critics as āinterloping self promoting grifting charlatans.ā
I wound love to come on MSNBC and discuss my pre-election claims that this was unlikely to be close and quite possibly a landslide. I would love to help the party fire its senior leadership. It is well past time to overthrow the partyās brain trust that leads us away from focusing on the welfare of working families, free speech, individualistic greatness, common sense, consumer protection, fair play, and into the arms of evil and madness.
The Clinton-Morris era needs to end. We need a revolt to overthrow our Lords and Masters. There is now no reason these people should be at the helm.
None.
š
@I_Hippocrite @mises Never been invited so I donāt know much about you.
@ericcorbello @Charles32615710 Thanks Brother. Prefer to work with you. Lots to be done. And congratulations.
Not really. Itās not a psychological thing. Itās this frustration that EVERYTHING has become team sports.
Iām looking to retain my independence, so the pickup game analogy is a good one.
Iām an individualist looking to caucus with others and frustrated by the emphasis on team purity.
Imagine a free soloist rock climber trying to talk to a football team about how to scale a tall building to retrieve their ball from the roof. He wants to help but doesnāt want to become a linebacker.
@PlanRightDave @Charles32615710 Right wing cancel culture is so weird. Thanks brother.
I will say it simply. @realDonaldTrump and @JDVance have the opportunity to change everything. Everything depends on @realDonaldTrumpās use of this historic opportunity.
This could restore America. Or tank it.
To say it my way, this is the highest *variance* presidency of my lifetime. As bad as Kamala was (and you know my position) she was probably lower variance. Lower variance and much lower mean.
This is potentially amazing because the sky is the limit. Given the chance, I will help anyone to use this mandate to make it the best presidency it can possibly be.
But you canāt ask me to close my eyes to the risks. Iām just not that guy. Never was and never will be. This is incredibly dangerous as we are seated at the high stakes table now.
I donāt understand Americans who want Trump to fail. I think he is a brilliant man which I have always said. But he is also incredibly divisive. I think he truly loves his country and wants the best for it. He is also very dangerous and unpredictable. And he NEEDS that unpredictability to survive. He is very strong. And perhaps he needs to be dangerous. I could be persuaded that this is necessary.
He learned last time that you need an sea of people to govern. He wonāt make that mistake again.
Am I optimistic? Yes. Very. Am I deeply deeply worried? Absolutely. Very.
Again in my language: stop focusing on the mean. If I absolutely had to say what I am feeling, with a gun to my head I might say this is high mean, high variance, negative skew, high kurtosis.
As a weather report: this is a low confidence forecast of an amazing spring day with a bit more than a slight chance of apocalypse.
I know āBut Bruh, Are you MAGA?ā
No. This is why we have more than one moment of a distribution and not a simple binary. MAGA is a broad coalition that seats some people who I view as āunworkableā. I canāt personally endorse a movement that tolerates that element in order to win. But I get along with plenty of MAGA People. And generally they get me. Most of them like me, understand me from podcasting, and donāt need me wearing a hat.
Lastly, you have no idea how desperately I want this to work. And it could be amazing. I think that is likely but with very weak conviction. As above.
Here to help, This is more or less what I predicted. Nothing has changed.
And word to the wise: mind the time *before* the inauguration. Donāt take your eye off the ball prematurely.
@alexutopia @realDonaldTrump @JDVance I said what I feel. This is truly how I think natively for both better and worse.
@BadSchoolU @realDonaldTrump @JDVance He is. But they are much worse in my opinion.
@sharpretired @realDonaldTrump @JDVance Math is language to me. I donāt put this on. I know that it is off putting. It is just how I think, feel and decide. It is who I am. Thx.
@americanslav2 @realDonaldTrump @JDVance @RobertKennedyJr @TulsiGabbard I do get that perspective. I just have my own.
@CaptainT007 @realDonaldTrump @JDVance Andā¦.Right on time.
@renaldafeen @realDonaldTrump @JDVance Largely agree. Directionally correct.
@i_miss_poke @realDonaldTrump @JDVance I disagreeā¦but not that much.
@geegimoto @realDonaldTrump @JDVance Letās hope itās awesome.
@WorldEverett @realDonaldTrump @JDVance If you never give your heart, have you really won? I gave my heart to Obama I.
In some ways I regret it. But at least I know how it feels to believe.
2026[edit]
As I said before inauguration: Donald Trump 2.0, unlike 1.0, was always going to be Trump completely renogiating the post WWII š.
If you donāt like it, then why run Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris instead of a primary? You the DNC chose this and got what you surely expected. https://t.co/fipjKAnzBf
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