Great Moderation: Difference between revisions

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=== 2009 ===


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|timestamp=3:11 AM Ā· Dec 21, 2009
|timestamp=3:11 AM Ā· Dec 21, 2009
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=== 2010 ===


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=== 2017 ===


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=== 2019 ===


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FreeTrade w/o Kaldor Hicks Transfers</br>
FreeTrade w/o Kaldor Hicks Transfers</br>
'''ā€œGreat Moderationā€'''</br>
[[Great Moderation|ā€œGreat Moderationā€]]</br>
Student Loans w/o Bankruptcy</br>
Student Loans w/o Bankruptcy</br>
Employer Tethering of H1B</br>
Employer Tethering of H1B</br>
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=I didn’t know you did impressions! Not really sure. Guessing Timothy Geithner explaining the '''great moderation''' of pre-2007? Marty Feldstein on laissez faire? Greenspan on self correcting markets? Brad Delong on NAFTA? Madoff on investing? Krugman on internet commerce?
|content=I didn’t know you did impressions! Not really sure. Guessing Timothy Geithner explaining [[Great Moderation|the great moderation]] of pre-2007? Marty Feldstein on laissez faire? Greenspan on self correcting markets? Brad Delong on NAFTA? Madoff on investing? Krugman on internet commerce?
I give. Who?
I give. Who?
|timestamp=5:21 AM Ā· Sep 3, 2019
|timestamp=5:21 AM Ā· Sep 3, 2019
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Take the current totally synthetic &amp; transparent push for ā€œauthoritative sourcesā€. Such sources would be the ones warning in 2005 that the ā€œGreat Moderationā€ was a lie &amp; that a crash loomed. Someone like @nntaleb. Yet they mean the opposite. They mean cheerleaders like @nytimes.
|content=Take the current totally synthetic &amp; transparent push for ā€œauthoritative sourcesā€. Such sources would be the ones warning in 2005 that the [[Great Moderation|ā€œGreat Moderationā€]] was a lie &amp; that a crash loomed. Someone like @nntaleb. Yet they mean the opposite. They mean cheerleaders like @nytimes.
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=== 2020 ===


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=== 2021 ===
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1351831628302094336
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|name=Eric Weinstein
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Student Debt, PATRIOT Act, Diversity &amp; Inclusion Oaths, Rollback of Mandatory Requirement, [[Jeffrey Epstein|Epstein Suicide]], Andrew Yang primary coverage, 1619 Project, Coordinated Bans by Tech Platforms, University Tuition Hike Explanations, [[Labor Shortages|STEM worker shortages despite wage mechanism]]..
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<nowiki>#</nowiki>GOLD!
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1351829685949251588
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=A weird way to describe [[String Theory]], Neoclassical Economics, Critical Theory, The Neo-Darwinian Synthesis, Public Health, Trust &amp; Safety, Mainstream Media, The Fed, [[Peer Review]], [[Great Moderation|The Great Moderation]], Cancel Culture and Political Polling...but ya know what? He’s right. It works!
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|image=neiltyson-profile.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/neiltyson/status/1351548097445441536
|name=Neil deGrasse Tyson
|usernameurl=https://x.com/neiltyson
|username=neiltyson
|content=Evidence you might be in a Cult::
Ā 
When you stop thinking for yourself and you’ve empowered a select few others in your group to do your thinking for you.
|timestamp=3:12 PM Ā· Jan 19, 2021
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|timestamp=9:51 AM Ā· Jan 20, 2021
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|timestamp=9:59 AM Ā· Jan 20, 2021
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Ā 
Ā 
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254943983140865
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Thanks.
|thread=
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254928929738756
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Thanks for the invitation. I can try to explain my concern.
Ā 
There really *is* a problem w MAGA, Trump, Qanon &amp; conspiracy theories running rampant.Ā  And it will result in death &amp; destruction if it spins out of control.
Ā 
However it is being fueled by those who claim to fight it.
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|nameurl=https://x.com/CBR_wick/status/1360207572167499784
|name=CBR_wick
|usernameurl=https://x.com/CBR_wick
|username=CBR_wick
|content=Hi @EricRWeinstein. Can you please explain to the public why you would be preemptive like this in a way that seems to contradict your value system?Ā  šŸ™
|timestamp=12:42 AM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254931400204292
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=The entire war over fact checking is a war of 2 low resolution teams.
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One team wants absolute freedom to spread wild eyed theories that just about everything is a psyop or a false flag.
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The other team wants to impose institutional consensus reality on everyone via media &amp; tech.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254932398448642
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Unfortunately, I can’t live under either. So each of the warring parties thinks I’m against them &amp; for the other team. In their mentalities if you aren’t on their simplistic team you are, de facto, working for the other side. There’s no basic concept of *responsible* heterodoxy.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254933476417540
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=No the Freemasons do not run everything on behalf of pedophile reptilians who faked Sandy Hook with crisis actors.
Ā 
Yes there are/were conspiracies behind [[Jeffrey Epstein|Epstein]], H1B, @MSNBC, PPE, climate science, the '''ā€œGreat Moderationā€''', Great Reset...everywhere institutions want a ā€œconsensusā€.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254934520721410
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Having spent a good portion of my 20s at Harvard, I know *exactly* how this game works. Our betters sit down and try to figure out how to control others behind closed doors. They see themselves as the intrinsically enlightened people who need to do the thinking for all of us.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254935560933378
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=When they wanted to cut our Social Security payments &amp; raise our taxes they opted to try to change the [[CPI]] rather than pass legislation. When they wanted to pay less for scientists they knew to keep *silent* about [[National Science Foundation|NSF]] [[Labor Shortages|Labor Shortage]] claims even though such shortages don’t exist.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254936504627202
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=These are the folks who tell you ā€œmasks don’t workā€ rather than ā€œsave masks for doctors as we forgot to restock them and moved all manufacturing to China like moronsā€. They will then spin on a dime to tell you ā€œOnly bad dumb people don’t wear masksā€. This is the worst of Harvard.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254937456730120
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=So I don’t want Alex Jones and Qanon nor do I want @TwitterSafety, @msnbc and @Harvard. I see them as very different forms of the same thing: people who want to take away our ability to see clearly.
Ā 
And, I assure you, @Harvard tries to paint anyone it can’t control as dangerous.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254938513764354
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=So, my belief is that anyone who rejects/questions Davos, Consensus Reality, Institutional Narrative, Public Health Campaigns, High Immigration, Peer Review, Primary Election Coverage, Trust &amp; Safety...will be treated as Alex Jones sooner or Later.
Ā 
This is [[Managed Reality TM|Managed Reality ā„¢]].
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254939549769728
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=I cannot live in [[Managed Reality TM|Managed Reality ā„¢]] because I think it defeats the purpose of being a human being. It negates being an American. It abdicates responsibility for our children.
Ā 
I have defeated Harvard about half the times we have fought. How? Because they just aren’t that good.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254940799668225
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=[[Managed Reality TM|Managed Reality ā„¢]] has a weak spot. It’s not run by our A-team anymore. Fauci isn’t Francis Crick. Biden isn’t Elon. Janet Yellen isn’t Satoshi.
Ā 
In general, the A-Team is going independent because tech/media/Ed are enforcing way too much conformity through personal destruction.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254941873414148
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=So why am I worried?
Ā 
Well, I’ve been trying to save the institutions. It’s probably doomed, but almost no one is trying to do what I do: rescue the institutions from their death spiral by reinserting their critics in positions of prominence (eg Chomsky at MIT).
Ā 
Hence my fear.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254942955540482
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=If I were a tech guy I’d retreat into wealth. If I were a professor I’d shut up and collect my salary with job security. If I was a politician or journalist I’d follow the other sheep.
Ā 
But I’m a science guy, an American and a dad. And I want my kids to have a particular future.
|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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|timestamp=3:50 PM Ā· Feb 12, 2021
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Ā 
Ā 
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1363900298838728705
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Sadly, My tweets reach my detractors but not as much my colleagues. But no one knows why certain tweets are hidden. Please RT
Ā 
Cc: @BretWeinstein @esaagar @joerogan @SamHarrisOrg @jordanbpeterson @MsMelChen @benshapiro @clairlemon @cvaldary @seanonolennon @PiaMalaney @timurkuran
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1363895382011383810
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=The Year is 2005. A tiny number of heretics are yelling that the entire economics profession &amp; all major central bankers are wrong.
Ā 
ā€œThere is no '''Great Moderation'''. All the ā€˜Experts’ are wrong. They have built a financial time bomb.ā€
Ā 
Q: Would Twitter ban &amp; downrank the heretics?
|timestamp=4:56 PM Ā· Feb 22, 2021
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1363895382711836673
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=I was one of them. So was @nntaleb.
I remember Nassim being publicly ridiculed by the most prestigious people in finance at Cannes.
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@jack: Would @TwitterSafety know that everything was flipped? That the bad guys were the Fed and the Professors. The good guys were the gadflies??
|timestamp=4:56 PM Ā· Feb 22, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1363895383416430593
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Jack: your team is failing. You are endangering us all by confusing dissenters with safety concerns. Wake up. You don’t have the wisdom for Twitter to play god with our ability to talk to each other and suppress heterodox dissent.
Ā 
This isn’t Twitter’s right as a platform.
|timestamp=4:56 PM Ā· Feb 22, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1363898952911708162
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=My 1st paper on Mortgage Backed Security Valuation problems was peer reviewed in 2001. After 4-5 years of constant ā€œchicken littleā€ styleĀ  ridicule at conference after conference, I gave up.
Ā 
Thank god @nntaleb did not. @jack: your team is out of control.
Ā 
https://risk.net/sites/risk/files/import_unmanaged/risk.net/data/Investor/pdf/june/technical.pdf
|timestamp=5:10 PM Ā· Feb 22, 2021
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|timestamp=5:15 PM Ā· Feb 22, 2021
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Ā 
=== 2022 ===
Ā 
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1554161132788523008
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=You’re not being truthful about economics.
Ā 
I’m sorry. But at a purely technical level, you are just not being truthful about markets, economics and economists. I say this without an axe to grind as a huge promoter of your earlier work when you were trying to understand the šŸŒŽ.
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1554161126622932994
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content="I've never seen anything as bad as the determination of a lot of people to say it's a recession," Krugman said. "It's above and beyond anything I've ever seen." -@paulkrugman
Ā 
Would you like to talk about the [[Boskin Commission]] &amp; the @BLS_gov pretending to move to a COLA for [[CPI]]?
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|nameurl=https://x.com/CNN/status/1553908398823030785
|name=CNN
|usernameurl=https://x.com/CNN
|username=CNN
|content=Even top economists are struggling to explain perhaps "the weirdest economy" Americans have ever lived through, CNN's chief media correspondent Brian Stelter said. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/31/media/economy-paul-krugman-reliable-sources/index.html
|timestamp=1:00 AM Ā· Aug 1, 2022
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|timestamp=5:44 PM Ā· Aug 1, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1554161129659674624
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Would you be interested in discussing an entire field of economic experts laughing for 5-8 years at those of us who tried to warn the world about the impending danger of Mortgage Backed Securities during the '''ā€œGreat Moderationā€'''?
|timestamp=5:44 PM Ā· Aug 1, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1554161131228315648
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Would you be interested in discussing the treatment of [[Borjas Rectangle Theory|George Borjas]] by economists for pointing out that Immigration actually carries costs &amp; redistributes wealth rather than a miracle free lunch that simply cannot do anything harmful?
Ā 
Etc. Etc.
Ā 
Because that is all much worse.
|timestamp=5:44 PM Ā· Aug 1, 2022
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|timestamp=5:44 PM Ā· Aug 1, 2022
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Ā 
=== 2023 ===
Ā 
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1633217955445248001
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Putin has *never* used nukes (or other unconventional WMD weapons) in war before. In my estimation, that’s very important to remember when trying to figure out to whom we now should turn for our analyses. As per the above. #MSM
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1633217952026869761
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=We had no experience in having 4 planes simultaneously highjacked by suicidal jihadis. So it wasn’t worth worrying about.
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We hadn’t had a worldwide pandemic w/ lockdowns for ages so it wasn’t going to happen.
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We banished volatility in the '''Great Moderation''' so that wasn’t a risk.
|timestamp=9:27 PM Ā· Mar 7, 2023
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|timestamp=9:27 PM Ā· Mar 7, 2023
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Ā 
Ā 
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1677750149869883392
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Which is why we got:
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Low Energy Spacetime Supersymmetry
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Superlative Index Numbers replacing the Konus Index
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Contradictory directives on Masks
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'''ā€œThe Great Moderationā€''' before 2008
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[[Labor Shortages|Labor Shortages claimed in Market Economies]]
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Vioxx
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Anti-Biological Redefinitions of Gender
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[[Peer Review|The Reproducibility Crisis in Peer Reviewed Literature]]
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Citation Cartels
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An admonition to ask no questions about the Wuhan Institute of Virology
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The Death of Sociobiology at the hands of Marxists
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40 yrs of modern [[String Theory]]
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70 years of [[Quantum Gravity]]
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The food pyramid
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|nameurl=https://x.com/ggronvall/status/1677650019724193793
|name=Gigi Gronvall
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ggronvall
|username=ggronvall
|content=For people not in the scientific world: ā€œdebateā€ is not something that generally happens. Instead, scientists give talks, present posters at conferences, and publish, all of which offer opportunities for peer review, critiques, and discussion of the data or its interpretation.
|media1=ggronvall-X-post-1677650019724193793-F0g1zK2WAAIeqtm.jpg
|timestamp=12:05 PM Ā· Jul 8, 2023
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|timestamp=6:43 PM Ā· Jul 8, 2023
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== Related Pages ==
== Related Pages ==
* [[CPI]]
* [[CPI]]
* [[Consensus]]
* [[Consensus]]
* [[Early is another name for wrong]]
* [[Mortgage Backed Securities]]
* [[The Idealism of Every Era Is the Cover Story of Its Greatest Theft]]
* [[The Idealism of Every Era Is the Cover Story of Its Greatest Theft]]
* [[What is Occupy Wall Street about?]]
* [[What is Occupy Wall Street about?]]