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CPI (edit)

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|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Can just *one* of them compute a simple Cost-Of-Living CPI for a consumer whose notion of well-being evolves even *slightly* during any period in question?  
|content=Can just *one* of them compute a simple Cost-Of-Living '''CPI''' for a consumer whose notion of well-being evolves even *slightly* during any period in question?  


I claim not. Let's not get carried away with this concept of economic experts. This field first needs to become healthy.
I claim not. Let's not get carried away with this concept of economic experts. This field first needs to become healthy.
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|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=<nowiki>*</nowiki>leads not leases in the above.
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456319697855528960
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=ANNOUNCEMENT: I head next week to @UChicago  for 5 days (Nov. 8-12) at the request of its storied Department of Economics to present our theory that all of economics is based on the wrong version of the differential calculus.
 
Importantly, this error afflicts Inflation &amp; the [[CPI]].
|timestamp=5:57 PM · Nov 4, 2021
|media1=Gauge_Theory_UChicago_Talk_Cover.jpg
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456319699805884417
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=I am a huge believer in the University of Chicago and its ability to stay the course while all others bend to the prevailing winds.
 
As such, I may (or may not) be announcing other events to discuss other work (e.g. Geometric Unity) depending on time, interest &amp; availability.🙏
|timestamp=5:57 PM · Nov 4, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456319702305759237
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Please retweet the top tweet if you're followed by economists &amp; others interested in the debate over inflation and '''CPI''', and your followers would find a new geometric Marginal Revolution of interest. Thanks! cc: @tylercowen, @Breedlove22, @paulmromer, @PeterMcCormack, @EconTalker.
|timestamp=5:57 PM · Nov 4, 2021
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|image=PeterRyan-profile-MGctNrxp.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1456400865766490117
|name=Peter Ryan
|usernameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan
|username=_PeterRyan
|content=Hi Eric, where can I find your calculations, data, and conclusions on what the real inflation and CPI numbers are?
|timestamp=11:19 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456406149020872704
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Weird question. You seem to have me confused for the BLS. I don't take in Data. I don't have a staff or a budget. You're assuming that I have the 'Real Inflation &amp; '''CPI''' numbers'. I don't.
 
This is about not even having a correct *theory* to calculate. What we corrected was theory.
|timestamp=11:40 PM · Nov 4, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456406149020872704
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Just to give you an idea:
|media1=ERW-X-post-1456406937155764225-FDYyVfZUcAQipT1.jpg
|timestamp=11:44 PM · Nov 4, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=PeterRyan-profile-MGctNrxp.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1456407821247938562
|name=Peter Ryan
|usernameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan
|username=_PeterRyan
|content=So if you have the correct theory then why wouldn't you be able to calculate the correct results from the existing input data available?
|timestamp=11:47 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456426248326897666
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=I didn’t say what you said. I said there was a wrong theory for '''CPI'''. We corrected that theory.
 
The issue of how to implement a theory in practice leases to different data being collected and different aggregations. For a different theory, you would collect different data.
|timestamp=1:00 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456427997813116928
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=As an example. The [[Boskin Commission|Boskin commission]] gave a single illustrative example in their report using two goods, chicken and beef. They gave prices but not ordinal utility. Here is the COL answer assuming Cobb-Douglas and Linear interpolation of all quantities. They could not compute it.
|timestamp=1:07 AM · Nov 5, 2021
|media1=ERW-X-post-1456427997813116928-FDZFiwNUYAUWtIs.jpg
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456428415842586631
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=The reason they had no theory to cover it was because the C-D exponent changed. And there is a claim that no extension of the Konus COL exists for dynamic tastes.
 
Hope that helps with your confusion. Be well.
|timestamp=1:09 AM · Nov 5, 2021
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|timestamp=1:10 AM · Nov 5, 2021
}}
 
 
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762157949808644
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=See you in Chicago. Let's take back '''CPI''' inflation which leads to mega transfers, from our unaccountable 'experts' before the money supply, modern monetary theory, and '''CPI''' hacking transfer even more of the wealth of ordinary people to those few who hold significant risk assets. 🙏
|thread=
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762146805608449
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Sorry to say that I've been informed that my upcoming Nov. 10, Money &amp; Banking Workshop at @UChi_Economics will closed to non-@UChicago folks, as will the Zoom connection. Researchers in other fields/students are allowed to attend.
 
This sort of breaks my no closed chambers rule.
|timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762149707997184
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Because this is arguably the most famous econ seminar running, it's widely known for being absolutely *brutal* yet also fair (it was founded by M. Friedman). Thus I have decided NOT to get hung up on this issue, but will comit to give an OPEN seminar on the same subject if asked.
|timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762151347974144
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=I am particularly irritated by the dismissive nature of the academic economists towards my tagging members of the Bitcoin community as if they are some kind of a joke.
 
If you bitcoiners want to have a jam session on this material, I'm yours. Despite our frictions, we're aligned.
|timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762152484696064
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=The academic economists need to learn a lesson that the public is not going to stand again for revisions in '''CPI''' that disguise inflation, tax us through indexing our  brackets, or impoverish us through under compensating cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security and Medicare.
|timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762154141446148
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=I also want to say this, there is a tremendous amount of nasty Glee on #EconTwitter that this is going to be a blow out. A mauling. That I have no idea what I am in for. Etc.
 
If you're an economist interested in expressing your bitchery as a bet, I'm not above taking your money.
|timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762155705856000
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=If you're an economist convinced that this is hilarious, propose a bet. Your arrogance is really my opportunity set after all...
 
As long as your seminar is fair, I'll be just fine. Academic econ. is in a *lot* more trouble than I am. So, if I could open the livestream, I would.
|timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762156871917569
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=The two most dangerous printing presses in Washington DC are directed by the Federal Reserve to dilute our dollar assets, and the @BLS_gov to print '''CPI''' inflation numbers that increase taxes through underindexed brackets &amp; slash entitlements we pay into over our working lives.
|timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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|timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021
}}
 
 
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048565964963841
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=What I'm looking for is for BLS to stop pretending it's discerning "THE rate of inflation" to admit that it's making *policy* choices while appearing to be technical. It's determining our taxes and our entitlements by indexing, with our future in its hands as mere 'technicians'.
|thread=
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048560050925568
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Great news, given that *every* tick of your BLS CPI forces billions of dollars to change hands.
 
"The concept of the cost-of-living index guides the CPI measurement objective and is the standard by which any bias in the CPI is defined."
 
I found this on @BLS_gov site. Is it true?
|quote=
{{Tweet
|image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1456774249654411266
|name=Joey-Politano
|usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano
|username=JosephPolitano
|content=I assure you we are not dangerous! If you want to read about how the BLS calculates the consumer price index you can check out the CPI handbook of methods (https://bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/).
|timestamp=12:03 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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|timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048561535782914
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=I cannot find any place where the preference maps needed to construct a Laspeyres Konus COL index are gleaned through revealed preference. I will go so far as to say that this is bait &amp; switch. There is a CLAIM of a COL framework, but no one is constructing anything of the kind.
|timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048562546532354
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Q1: Where exactly do I find the ordinal indifference maps constructed by BLS for a 'Representative Consumer' used to find substitution bias in fixed basket Mechanical approximations to a welfare Cost-Of-Living framework based on a Konus economic index of intertemporal welfare?
|timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048563532251145
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Q2: What happens to our BLS COL framework when ordinal tastes change? How is the effect of substitution due to price change disaggregated by BLS from changes in ordinal preferences? This is important because marketing, education, etc change tastes &amp; there is no theory for this.
|timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048564547272705
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Let me give you the non-answers so you can correct:
 
A1: "Well, you are looking at it too literally...we have studied superlative index numbers which give a second order approximation to flexible functional form...blah blah blah."
 
A2: "That's really an obscure academic issue."
|timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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|timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021
}}
 
 
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457101242434351105
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Sorry but that doesn’t make sense. It’s selfcontradictory doublespeak.
 
It literally just said that despite BLS COL framework claims, a Mechanical index is used w/ base periods *quantities* held fixed.
 
COL *requires preferences*. Where are they? There are/aren’t preference maps?
|thread=
{{Tweet
|image=besttrousers-profile-OGbByGBP.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/besttrousers/status/1457052884839829506
|name=Matt Darling
|usernameurl=https://x.com/besttrousers
|username=besttrousers
|content=https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm
|media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457082991067516941-FDiZONeX0AUfiln.jpg
|quote=
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048565964963841
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=What I'm looking for is for BLS to stop pretending it's discerning "THE rate of inflation" to admit that it's making *policy* choices while appearing to be technical. It's determining our taxes and our entitlements by indexing, with our future in its hands as mere 'technicians'.
|timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021
}}
|timestamp=6:56 PM · Nov 6, 2021
}}
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457059215655280647
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content="[A] market basket of goods and services equivalent to one they could purchase in an earlier period."
 
Exactly. Looking for the *exact* *technical* definition of 'equivalent' in the above. Can you point me to it? I assume it's a notion of revealed indifference in ordinal welfare.
|timestamp=6:56 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457059777419231235
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=I wasn't able to find the answer to the above. Perhaps you had better luck?
|quote=
{{Tweet
|image=besttrousers-profile-OGbByGBP.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/besttrousers/status/1457053486957400064
|name=Matt Darling
|usernameurl=https://x.com/besttrousers
|username=besttrousers
|content=This is why it is useful to read the handbook of methods!
|timestamp=6:33 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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|timestamp=6:58 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457088133397372936
|name=Joey-Politano
|usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano
|username=JosephPolitano
|content=Since CPI is a Laspeyres-based index, the "equivalent" in this case refers to the weighting of the basket. I like this research note on the difference between the modified Laspeyres formula CPI currently uses and a possible geometric mean formula.
 
https://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.br121996.geors.htm
|timestamp=8:50 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457091492825088002
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Uh…The Laspeyres is a *mechanical* index. The BLS site says it works within a *COL* framework.
 
When Mechanical = COL, it is called an exact index. You are not saying that BLS believes
 
'''Laspeyres CPI''' = Konus COL
 
I assume, because that is false. So what are you and BLS saying?
|timestamp=9:04 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457097908969517057
|name=Joey-Politano
|usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano
|username=JosephPolitano
|content=I think this might do a better job describing it than I can:
|media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457097908969517057-FDimpKzXEBAjlZc.jpg
|media2=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457097908969517057-FDimvaiWYAMHHet.jpg
|timestamp=9:29 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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|timestamp=9:43 PM · Nov 6, 2021
}}
 
 
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457110028792463360
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Wait. Slow down.
 
Did you just say that BLS is claiming to work within a Cost of Living framework which *requires* preference maps *definitionally*, but…words fail me…has no preference maps? At all??
 
I must not be understanding. Chaining Tornqvist indexes isn’t an answer here. https://t.co/IyIArW40OV
|media1=ERW-X-post-1457110028792463360-FDix2ViVkAA64YY.jpg
|thread=
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048560050925568
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Great news, given that *every* tick of your BLS '''CPI''' forces billions of dollars to change hands.
 
"The concept of the cost-of-living index guides the '''CPI''' measurement objective and is the standard by which any bias in the CPI is defined."
 
I found this on @BLS_gov site. Is it true?
|quote=
{{Tweet
|image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1456774249654411266
|name=Joey-Politano
|usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano
|username=JosephPolitano
|content=I assure you we are not dangerous! If you want to read about how the BLS calculates the consumer price index you can check out the CPI handbook of methods (https://bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/).
|timestamp=12:03 PM · Nov 5, 2021
}}
|timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457082873064869890
|name=Joey-Politano
|usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano
|username=JosephPolitano
|content=I can only answer your questions in a personal capacity, not as an official representative of BLS. I would encourage you to reach out to CPI team with any questions and they would be happy to answer.(https://data.bls.gov/forms/cpi.htm?/cpi/home.htm)
|timestamp=8:30 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457082991067516941
|name=Joey-Politano
|usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano
|username=JosephPolitano
|content=The Bureau is rather open that the main Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is only one measurement of cost of living and the prices faced by consumers', and there are good reasons that the Federal Reserve targets the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index instead of CPI.
|media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457082991067516941-FDiZONeX0AUfiln.jpg
|timestamp=8:30 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457083105299378184
|name=Joey-Politano
|usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano
|username=JosephPolitano
|content=In addition, the Bureau is open about the limitations of the CPI and works continually to update methods and calculations in order to improve price measurements and indexing.
|media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457083105299378184-FDiZVkZWEAAoz_C.jpg
|timestamp=8:30 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457083268122173444
|name=Joey-Politano
|usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano
|username=JosephPolitano
|content=The Bureau has introduced alternative data series (including the chained CPI index) to better account for the taste changes and substitution effects that reflect real consumer spending habits. You see information for that index here: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-questions-and-answers.htm
|timestamp=8:31 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457083268122173444
|name=Joey-Politano
|usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano
|username=JosephPolitano
|content=The CPI is guided by the concept of a COL index, but is not a perfect measurement of either cost of living or inflation. The Bureau is open about the inherent flaws in the index and has had to make tough choices in a tradeoff between precision, complexity, and timeliness.
|media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457083478646874114-FDiZpZMXoA46r48.jpg
|timestamp=8:32 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457088660759670785
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=“Guided by the concept of a COL index but is not a perfect measurement.”
 
Can you show me *any* imperfect COL preferences to give me a sense of how far we may be off? Specifically preference maps: there is no COL without preference maps with which to evaluate substitution bias.
|timestamp=8:53 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457089741950631936
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Q: Where do I find the imperfect preferences maps for the COL claim?
 
Q: How were those preference maps computed or imputed?
 
Q: How does chained '''CPI''' calculate taste change given the claim of the fed that time varying ordinal preferences cannot be tracked in COL even in theory?
|timestamp=8:57 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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{{Tweet
|image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457096567429599233
|name=Joey-Politano
|usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano
|username=JosephPolitano
|content=There are no preference maps, chained CPI employs a superlative Tornqvist formula to account for substitution. The documents introducing the chained CPI do a better job outlining the methodological and theoretical structures than I could.(https://bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-introduction.pdf)
|media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457096567429599233-FDikbqWXoAMvGvc.jpg
|timestamp=9:24 PM · Nov 5, 2021
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|timestamp=10:17 PM · Nov 6, 2021
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|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=And, no, the answers to these questions are NOT in the BLS handbook on CPI methodology. I’ve looked.
|content=And, no, the answers to these questions are NOT in the BLS handbook on '''CPI''' methodology. I’ve looked.
|thread=
|thread=
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