Responsible Conspiracy Theorizing - Revision history

Aardvark: Text replacement - "|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein↵|username=EricRWeinstein" to "|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein |username=ericweinstein"

2026-05-06T00:23:54Z

Text replacement - "|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein↵|username=EricRWeinstein" to "|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein |username=ericweinstein"

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	\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1164214855831703552		\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1164214855831703552
	\|name=Eric Weinstein		\|name=Eric Weinstein
	\|usernameurl=https://x.com/~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
	\|username=~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|username=ericweinstein
	\|content=I would love to debate fellow IDW member @michaelshermer on '''responsible conspiracy theorizing''' for adults. Could be a blast. Michael you are welcome on the portal any time to discuss this.		\|content=I would love to debate fellow IDW member @michaelshermer on '''responsible conspiracy theorizing''' for adults. Could be a blast. Michael you are welcome on the portal any time to discuss this.
	\|thread=		\|thread=
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	\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1164214078962688000		\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1164214078962688000
	\|name=Eric Weinstein		\|name=Eric Weinstein
	\|usernameurl=https://x.com/~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
	\|username=~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|username=ericweinstein
	\|content=Wait, what? This is a totally adorable 2019 tweet! Be sure to tell, @1971Film, @carlbernstein, @danielsheehan45, @HarryMarkopolos, @ErinBrockovich, etc. and let me know how you make out. But be sure to read all documents at: https://www.industrydocuments.ucsf.edu/tobacco/about/ first.		\|content=Wait, what? This is a totally adorable 2019 tweet! Be sure to tell, @1971Film, @carlbernstein, @danielsheehan45, @HarryMarkopolos, @ErinBrockovich, etc. and let me know how you make out. But be sure to read all documents at: https://www.industrydocuments.ucsf.edu/tobacco/about/ first.

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	\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1286691199701536775		\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1286691199701536775
	\|name=Eric Weinstein		\|name=Eric Weinstein
	\|usernameurl=https://x.com/~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
	\|username=~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|username=ericweinstein
	\|content=I am looking forward to making a LOT of apologies. Nothing would make me happier as a '''responsible conspiracy theorist'''.		\|content=I am looking forward to making a LOT of apologies. Nothing would make me happier as a '''responsible conspiracy theorist'''.

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	\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088679665946624		\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088679665946624
	\|name=Eric Weinstein		\|name=Eric Weinstein
	\|usernameurl=https://x.com/~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
	\|username=~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|username=ericweinstein
	\|content=[[Morals\|Moral]]: some people seem to see meaning & pattern everywhere. Others seem to demand proof because they believe that it’s all likely our imaginations. Don’t be like those groups of people.		\|content=[[Morals\|Moral]]: some people seem to see meaning & pattern everywhere. Others seem to demand proof because they believe that it’s all likely our imaginations. Don’t be like those groups of people.

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	\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088653757730820		\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088653757730820
	\|name=Eric Weinstein		\|name=Eric Weinstein
	\|usernameurl=https://x.com/~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
	\|username=~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|username=ericweinstein
	\|content=The city of Aix-en-Provence is not without an architectural…		\|content=The city of Aix-en-Provence is not without an architectural…
	\|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022		\|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022
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	\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088659600396291		\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088659600396291
	\|name=Eric Weinstein		\|name=Eric Weinstein
	\|usernameurl=https://x.com/~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
	\|username=~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|username=ericweinstein
	\|content=…sense of humor.		\|content=…sense of humor.
	\|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022		\|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022
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	\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088666810294273		\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088666810294273
	\|name=Eric Weinstein		\|name=Eric Weinstein
	\|usernameurl=https://x.com/~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
	\|username=~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|username=ericweinstein
	\|content=…but then in Aix, once you see one AIX or X reference, you start seeing things everywhere that may or not be real.		\|content=…but then in Aix, once you see one AIX or X reference, you start seeing things everywhere that may or not be real.
	\|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022		\|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022
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	\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088676356538370		\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1550088676356538370
	\|name=Eric Weinstein		\|name=Eric Weinstein
	\|usernameurl=https://x.com/~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
	\|username=~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|username=ericweinstein
	\|content=This is a simple model of what goes wrong in most models of “conspiracy theorizing”. I don’t know how to say that the building pictured is almost certainly an “architectural conspiracy” to spell AIX while the gate is not. I have no idea about the crossed metal beams.		\|content=This is a simple model of what goes wrong in most models of “conspiracy theorizing”. I don’t know how to say that the building pictured is almost certainly an “architectural conspiracy” to spell AIX while the gate is not. I have no idea about the crossed metal beams.
	\|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022		\|timestamp=12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2022
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	\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1828467697312731195		\|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1828467697312731195
	\|name=Eric Weinstein		\|name=Eric Weinstein
	\|usernameurl=https://x.com/~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
	\|username=~~EricRWeinstein~~		\|username=ericweinstein
	\|content=There is an old suite of ideas from a different time:		\|content=There is an old suite of ideas from a different time:

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2025-12-03T06:15:38Z

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 I have been told of metallic samples with strange mixtures of elements not found in nature by respected professors in STEM and did not know what to believe.
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Pyrope: /* Examples of Unearthed Conspiracies */

2025-11-20T04:10:53Z

Examples of Unearthed Conspiracies

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	== Examples of Unearthed Conspiracies ==		== Examples of Unearthed Conspiracies ==

	* [[The Barack Obama Senior Story]]		* [[The Barack Obama Senior Harvard Story]]
	* [[Boskin Commission]]		* [[Boskin Commission]]
	* [[The Swift-and-Devastating-Takedown Story]]		* [[The Swift-and-Devastating-Takedown Story]]

Pyrope: /* Quotes */

2025-10-28T03:43:10Z

Quotes

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	''So the first thing I want is to be relatively clear: I’m somebody who believes that there is a fair amount of organization behind the scenes-usually of a relatively low level of organization-that is unknown to the people who are watching TV or listening to, let’s say, NPR on the radio. And at various times I’ve dug more deeply into various stories, and so I want you to have some idea of my history in the space.		''So the first thing I want is to be relatively clear: I’m somebody who believes that there is a fair amount of organization behind the scenes-usually of a relatively low level of organization-that is unknown to the people who are watching TV or listening to, let’s say, NPR on the radio. And at various times I’ve dug more deeply into various stories, and so I want you to have some idea of my history in the space.

	''In the 1980s and 1990s, I became very active in believing that the so called STEM shortage of scientists and engineers that was claimed by the policy research and analysis division of the [[National Science Foundation (NSF)\|National Science Foundation]], was in fact a conspiracy in order to make life easier for employers who would be facing American scientists with an ability to bargain, and make higher wage demands; and that the National Academy of Sciences and National Science Foundation interceded on the behalf of employers, which was tampering in the labor market in an absolutely vital sector-resulting in the [[IMMACT90\|Immigration Act of 1990, or ~~IMACT90~~]], as it was called.		''In the 1980s and 1990s, I became very active in believing that the so called STEM shortage of scientists and engineers that was claimed by the policy research and analysis division of the [[National Science Foundation (NSF)\|National Science Foundation]], was in fact a conspiracy in order to make life easier for employers who would be facing American scientists with an ability to bargain, and make higher wage demands; and that the National Academy of Sciences and National Science Foundation interceded on the behalf of employers, which was tampering in the labor market in an absolutely vital sector-resulting in the [[IMMACT90\|Immigration Act of 1990, or IMMACT90]], as it was called.

	''At that point, I also became aware of what I have termed the [[Borjas Rectangle Theory]]: that is that employers generally, in free market economies, when they’re complaining about labor shortages, are actually trying to transfer wealth from labor to capital-complaining instead that there is a small inefficiency that needs to be rectified, which we might [in turn] call the Harberger Triangle. So that is, employers claim that there’s a small inefficiency, but in [point of] fact they’re seeking large transfer payments from the vulnerable to the well-heeled. I also believe that NAFTA and the Free Trade Agreement from the 1990s, was a kind of conspiracy supported by the economics establishment of the United States; that they knew that in fact free trade was not a freebie. It was not in fact a rising tide that lifted all boats, but was in fact, again, a transfer, which was claimed to be a pure good for everyone. This is the difference between something called the Kaldor-Hicks objective function and the Pareto objective function.		''At that point, I also became aware of what I have termed the [[Borjas Rectangle Theory]]: that is that employers generally, in free market economies, when they’re complaining about labor shortages, are actually trying to transfer wealth from labor to capital-complaining instead that there is a small inefficiency that needs to be rectified, which we might [in turn] call the Harberger Triangle. So that is, employers claim that there’s a small inefficiency, but in [point of] fact they’re seeking large transfer payments from the vulnerable to the well-heeled. I also believe that NAFTA and the Free Trade Agreement from the 1990s, was a kind of conspiracy supported by the economics establishment of the United States; that they knew that in fact free trade was not a freebie. It was not in fact a rising tide that lifted all boats, but was in fact, again, a transfer, which was claimed to be a pure good for everyone. This is the difference between something called the Kaldor-Hicks objective function and the Pareto objective function.

Pyrope: /* Quotes */

2025-10-28T03:41:13Z

Quotes

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	''At that point, I also became aware of what I have termed the [[Borjas Rectangle Theory]]: that is that employers generally, in free market economies, when they’re complaining about labor shortages, are actually trying to transfer wealth from labor to capital-complaining instead that there is a small inefficiency that needs to be rectified, which we might [in turn] call the Harberger Triangle. So that is, employers claim that there’s a small inefficiency, but in [point of] fact they’re seeking large transfer payments from the vulnerable to the well-heeled. I also believe that NAFTA and the Free Trade Agreement from the 1990s, was a kind of conspiracy supported by the economics establishment of the United States; that they knew that in fact free trade was not a freebie. It was not in fact a rising tide that lifted all boats, but was in fact, again, a transfer, which was claimed to be a pure good for everyone. This is the difference between something called the Kaldor-Hicks objective function and the Pareto objective function.		''At that point, I also became aware of what I have termed the [[Borjas Rectangle Theory]]: that is that employers generally, in free market economies, when they’re complaining about labor shortages, are actually trying to transfer wealth from labor to capital-complaining instead that there is a small inefficiency that needs to be rectified, which we might [in turn] call the Harberger Triangle. So that is, employers claim that there’s a small inefficiency, but in [point of] fact they’re seeking large transfer payments from the vulnerable to the well-heeled. I also believe that NAFTA and the Free Trade Agreement from the 1990s, was a kind of conspiracy supported by the economics establishment of the United States; that they knew that in fact free trade was not a freebie. It was not in fact a rising tide that lifted all boats, but was in fact, again, a transfer, which was claimed to be a pure good for everyone. This is the difference between something called the Kaldor-Hicks objective function and the Pareto objective function.

	''I also believed that [[String Theory]] was largely a desperation measure in physics that was sold to the world to buy time, when in fact the field of theoretical physics was failing. I also claimed that the [[Boskin Commission]], formed by Packwood and Moynihan in the mid-1990s, was a kind of conspiracy to transfer-actually-a trillion dollars, by using the fact that Social Security payments are indexed to inflation, as well as tax brackets being indexed to inflation; so that if you could show that the CPI was overstated and you could reduce the [[CPI]], you could transfer millions without having to touch the so called “third rail” of American politics.		''I also believed that [[String Theory]] was largely a desperation measure in physics that was sold to the world to buy time, when in fact the field of theoretical physics was failing. I also claimed that the [[Boskin Commission]], formed by Packwood and Moynihan in the mid-1990s, was a kind of conspiracy to transfer, actually, a trillion dollars, by using the fact that Social Security payments are indexed to inflation, as well as tax brackets being indexed to inflation; so that if you could show that the CPI was overstated and you could reduce the [[CPI]], you could transfer millions without having to touch the so called “third rail” of American politics.

	''This brings us to the two trading fortunes in New York City that, during the first decade of the new millennium, made no sense to me. And those were Bernie Madoff, then referred to as the “Jewish T-Bill”, and [[Jeffrey Epstein]]. In the case of Madoff, I made a wrong guess. I believed that Bernie Madoff was frontrunning a traditional business that he held using actual orders that he knew were being placed, and in his hedge fund [he] was effectively cheating-based on the inside information he had from a legitimate business, in an illegitimate business. I goofed, and I was wrong. In fact, he was operating a pyramid scheme. It didn’t occur to me.		''This brings us to the two trading fortunes in New York City that, during the first decade of the new millennium, made no sense to me. And those were Bernie Madoff, then referred to as the “Jewish T-Bill”, and [[Jeffrey Epstein]]. In the case of Madoff, I made a wrong guess. I believed that Bernie Madoff was frontrunning a traditional business that he held using actual orders that he knew were being placed, and in his hedge fund [he] was effectively cheating-based on the inside information he had from a legitimate business, in an illegitimate business. I goofed, and I was wrong. In fact, he was operating a pyramid scheme. It didn’t occur to me.

Pyrope: /* Quotes */

2025-10-28T03:39:03Z

Quotes

← Older revision		Revision as of 03:39, 28 October 2025
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	<blockquote>		<blockquote>
	''Now I want to say, first of all, that I have absolutely no special inside knowledge of the situation. I know people who knew him and I met him once, but it is not like I have any particular line on information from any particularly interesting source about the situation. Furthermore, I don’t think that I’m going to be using any special kind of analysis that is known only to me, but I did want to talk to people about ~~'''~~Responsible Conspiracy Theorizing~~'''~~. That is, in the minds of many, people believe that conspiracy theorists are people like Alex Jones, people who are spouting all sorts of crazy ideas-some of which might have some grain of truth in them, but in general it feels like an exercise in talking to the tin foil hat crowd. Now, I don’t know much about Alex Jones; perhaps he’s better than I think he is, but what I want to talk about is a different kind of conspiracy theorizing. So, without further ado, welcome to this episode of The Portal on the subject of Jeffrey Epstein.''		''Now I want to say, first of all, that I have absolutely no special inside knowledge of the situation. I know people who knew him and I met him once, but it is not like I have any particular line on information from any particularly interesting source about the situation. Furthermore, I don’t think that I’m going to be using any special kind of analysis that is known only to me, but I did want to talk to people about [[Responsible Conspiracy Theorizing\|responsible conspiracy theorizing]]. That is, in the minds of many, people believe that conspiracy theorists are people like Alex Jones, people who are spouting all sorts of crazy ideas-some of which might have some grain of truth in them, but in general it feels like an exercise in talking to the tin foil hat crowd.

	- '''Eric Weinstein''' on [[~~ep25~~\|The Portal #25]] ~~on March 7, 2020~~		''Now, I don’t know much about Alex Jones; perhaps he’s better than I think he is, but what I want to talk about is a different kind of conspiracy theorizing. So, without further ado, welcome to this episode of The Portal on the subject of Jeffrey Epstein.

			''So the first thing I want is to be relatively clear: I’m somebody who believes that there is a fair amount of organization behind the scenes-usually of a relatively low level of organization-that is unknown to the people who are watching TV or listening to, let’s say, NPR on the radio. And at various times I’ve dug more deeply into various stories, and so I want you to have some idea of my history in the space.

			''In the 1980s and 1990s, I became very active in believing that the so called STEM shortage of scientists and engineers that was claimed by the policy research and analysis division of the [[National Science Foundation (NSF)\|National Science Foundation]], was in fact a conspiracy in order to make life easier for employers who would be facing American scientists with an ability to bargain, and make higher wage demands; and that the National Academy of Sciences and National Science Foundation interceded on the behalf of employers, which was tampering in the labor market in an absolutely vital sector-resulting in the [[IMMACT90\|Immigration Act of 1990, or IMACT90]], as it was called.

			''At that point, I also became aware of what I have termed the [[Borjas Rectangle Theory]]: that is that employers generally, in free market economies, when they’re complaining about labor shortages, are actually trying to transfer wealth from labor to capital-complaining instead that there is a small inefficiency that needs to be rectified, which we might [in turn] call the Harberger Triangle. So that is, employers claim that there’s a small inefficiency, but in [point of] fact they’re seeking large transfer payments from the vulnerable to the well-heeled. I also believe that NAFTA and the Free Trade Agreement from the 1990s, was a kind of conspiracy supported by the economics establishment of the United States; that they knew that in fact free trade was not a freebie. It was not in fact a rising tide that lifted all boats, but was in fact, again, a transfer, which was claimed to be a pure good for everyone. This is the difference between something called the Kaldor-Hicks objective function and the Pareto objective function.

			''I also believed that [[String Theory]] was largely a desperation measure in physics that was sold to the world to buy time, when in fact the field of theoretical physics was failing. I also claimed that the [[Boskin Commission]], formed by Packwood and Moynihan in the mid-1990s, was a kind of conspiracy to transfer-actually-a trillion dollars, by using the fact that Social Security payments are indexed to inflation, as well as tax brackets being indexed to inflation; so that if you could show that the CPI was overstated and you could reduce the [[CPI]], you could transfer millions without having to touch the so called “third rail” of American politics.

			''This brings us to the two trading fortunes in New York City that, during the first decade of the new millennium, made no sense to me. And those were Bernie Madoff, then referred to as the “Jewish T-Bill”, and [[Jeffrey Epstein]]. In the case of Madoff, I made a wrong guess. I believed that Bernie Madoff was frontrunning a traditional business that he held using actual orders that he knew were being placed, and in his hedge fund [he] was effectively cheating-based on the inside information he had from a legitimate business, in an illegitimate business. I goofed, and I was wrong. In fact, he was operating a pyramid scheme. It didn’t occur to me.

			'''Eric Weinstein''', March 7, 2020, on [[25: The Construct: Jeffrey Epstein\|The Portal Ep #25]]
	</blockquote>		</blockquote>

Pyrope: /* On X */

2025-10-05T04:11:14Z

On X

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 == On X ==
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-{{#widget:Tweet|id=1286691199701536775}}
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 == Examples of Unearthed Conspiracies ==

Pyrope: /* Related Pages */

2025-07-08T04:31:00Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:31, 8 July 2025
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	* [[Jessupization]]		* [[Jessupization]]
	* [[Law of Gaslighting]]		* [[Law of Gaslighting]]
			* [[Map the Silences]]
	* [[Neo-Debunker]]		* [[Neo-Debunker]]
	* [[Nothing Burger]]		* [[Nothing Burger]]

Pyrope: /* Related Pages */

2025-07-08T04:26:19Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:26, 8 July 2025
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	* [[Prebunked Malinformation]]		* [[Prebunked Malinformation]]
	* [[Seberging]]		* [[Seberging]]
	* [[The Invisible World is First Detected by the Visible ~~World's~~ Failure to Close]]		* [[The Invisible World is First Detected by the Visible World’s Failure to Close]]
	* [[Tuskegee Principle]]		* [[Tuskegee Principle]]
	* [[Universal Institutional Betrayal]]		* [[Universal Institutional Betrayal]]