Editing Ken Arrow (section)

=== 2019 ===

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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1101882967499071488
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=@kmele @FreeSpeechAppar @AndrewYangVFA Damn. That Ken Arrow is really starting to piss-me-off.
|timestamp=4:32 PM · Mar 2, 2019
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1509216570756661250
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Economists: Ken Arrow taught us we can’t aggregate rational preferences into the preferences of a mythical super-individual to represent society.

Also Economists: Konus taught us that Inflation is measured relative to agents’ PERSONAL preferences.

BLS Economists: US CPI is 7.9%
|timestamp=5:10 PM · Mar 30, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1553912139110199296
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=So my model is that Economics really changed. The old guys who did the most to lay the foundations were a lot less high on their own supply. They welcomed interactions with other disciplines. It feels like the 1970s transformed economics into something less intellectually honest.
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1553909627862913024
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=“None of the usual criteria that **real** experts use says that we are in a recession.” - Prof. @paulkrugman

Have you dealt w/ economics professionally as an academic from another field? If not, it’s exactly like this: “Reason, fact, analysis, total bullshit, fact, a lie, fact.”
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|name=Tom Elliott
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|content=CNN's @brianstelter: "Can we dispense with the recession debate? Are we in a recession, and does the term matter?

Former Enron adviser @PaulKrugman: "No, we aren’t and no, it doesn’t."
|timestamp=4:13 PM · Jul 31, 2022
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|timestamp=1:05 AM · Aug 1, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1553909630517972992
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=In fact the truths, insights, facts, analysis, etc. are pretty compelling. And they are the majority of what economists circulate.

And then the conversation turns, and out comes the superior dismissive insufferable gaslighting.

And you think: “Why ruin analysis with psychosis?”
|timestamp=1:05 AM · Aug 1, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1553909631805599745
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=I was lucky enough as a younger man to get to know [[Ken Arrow]] and [[Paul Samuelson]] slightly. They didn’t have this trait. Talking to [[Ken Arrow|Arrow]] or [[Paul Samuelson|Samuelson]] was like talking to a research mathematician, biologist or physicist at the time. It wasn’t switching between reality &amp; propoganda.
|timestamp=1:05 AM · Aug 1, 2022
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|timestamp=1:14 AM · Aug 1, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1589292586254360576
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=Note Added After Posting: 

I responded to a question about proper index construction here. Would love to have Prof @RBReich thoughts. Maybe even a debate on [[CPI]] and measurement?
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1589287901804007425
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade it’s an element of GL(2,R) although the economists haven’t gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. It’s a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1589287901804007425
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Great question. Inflation is SUPPOSED to be a group valued field. In the case of bilateral trade it’s an element of GL(2,R) although the economists haven’t gotten there yet. But it is mostly not a field on Geography. It’s a field on path, Loop, preference and geographic spaces.
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|content=I have heard you say inflation looks more like a heat map, than a single number. Would you say a heat map by both geography and product? Good morning
|timestamp=2:21 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=Q1: Why is it a field on Preferences?

A1: Because a true COLA is not an index on baskets (mechanical index) but on welfare derived from baskets (economic index). BLS misrepresents [[CPI]] being COLA-driven abusing work of Erwin Diewert on Superlative indices. A COLA prices WELFARE.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=Q2: Why is inflation a field on LOOP spaces of preferences?

A2: Tastes are seasonal. In USA “We never spill Egg Nog on our bikinis.” What you both want &amp; price HAS to be made seasonal to avoid the Cycling Problem (Holonomy) in index number thy. So we have LOOPS of tastes/prices.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=A2 Continued: If you don’t make loops of tastes and prices, you will show meaningless regular inflation if prices, quantities and tastes Circle back to their initial Jan 1 values. This confuses economic experts (Like Diewert) when it comes to chain/path indices…which is up next.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=Q3: Why is inflation a field on Path Spaces of Looped Preferences/Prices?

A3: Loosely, Index number theory really died w/ work of Ragnar Frisch (rightly) destroying Irving Fischer’s misguided work on axiomatic tests for bilateral (2 period) mechanical index numbers. Here’s why.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|content=A3 Cont.: As [[Ken Arrow]] challenged us “Frisch showed we can’t solve the bilateral index problem because a single agent at multiple points in time is *exactly* dual to multiple agents at a single instant of time. Which is exactly my ‘Impossibility Theorem’ in Social Choice. QED.”
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|content=A3 Cont.: Our response: “Ah. That would be true but for 2 differences! First, Indices live in markets with *prices*. Our methods *don’t* live in social choice voting paradigms. Second, agents evolve into their future selves via paths. There’s no ‘morphing path’ in social choice.”
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|content=A3 Cont.: “This is why index numbers will one day be properly understood as parallel translation in [[Bundles|Fiber Bundles]] wrt Economic Gauge Potentials. But Zoe doesn’t become Cam morphing into Fatima when voting. So parallel transport is unavailable. Even in topological social choice.”
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Q4: Why do you say indexes are Group-Valued? Isn’t inflation just a number?

A4: Here goes. In the most famous case you *can* get away with a number. But that 8.9% style [[CPI]] nonsense is actually secretly a 1x1 matrix in GL(1,R). And that actually matters! Why? B/c Non-linearity.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=A4 Cont.: Only 1x1 matrices commute. NxN matrices do not! And if A.B isn’t B.A, the system goes non-linear. So if you have 2 countries with 2 currencies, the commutative case doesn’t work at all. You need to use Freeman Dyson’s system of Time Ordered Products to save inflation.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=A4 Cont.: But even in the case of one Currency like the Dollar, economists don’t get the group issue. True COLAs are valued in an *infinite* dimensional non-commutative group called DIFF_0(R^+) equivalent to increasing differentiable functions from 0–&gt;♾ reparameterizing ‘Utils’.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1589287920971968512
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Q5: So let’s see. Inflation is a field like temperature. But a field in a fiber bundle over ♾-dimensional path spaces of loops of preferences/prices valued in non-commuting groups leading to non linearities not addressed by economists? What about actual geography!”

A5: Fair. 👍
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=A5 Continued: Prices vary by zip code. So throw in a geographical map as a reward for getting to the end!

Just try to understand my bewilderment when @BLS_gov says 7.9% and everyone pretends that they aren’t really raising taxes &amp; slashing social security. You’re being screwed.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1589287923987656704
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Your life savings are being stolen through seignorage as you are being taxed into oblivion with your social Security beaten to a pulp. Meanwhile @paulkrugman and Robert Reich are playing with finger paints.

If you want help, do let me know. But I can’t watch this massacre again.
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1589287925577318400
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=Either do something to save yourselves or continue to sit &amp; wait to be eaten by the Fed and @BLS_gov’s fakely precise single number [[CPI]]. 

I’ll debate ANYONE on this high enough up for you. But I can’t watch &amp; I’m done w economist abuse &amp; yelling at clouds. 

Thanks for asking.🙏
|timestamp=4:05 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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|timestamp=4:24 PM · Nov 6, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1620608908153987072
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein
|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=He was very supportive of me. If I had to make a single choice it might be him or [[Paul Samuelson|Samuelson]].
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|name=Nathan Barnard
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|username=NathanB60857242
|content=who's your favourite economist?
|timestamp=11:07 AM · Jan 30, 2023
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1620286139742683137
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=[[François Divisia]] or [[Ken Arrow]] or [[Paul Samuelson]] or Satoshi or [[Ronald Coase]] etc.... would be easy to defend. 

But Graciela Chichilnisky or Bert Balk would be more interesting offbeat choices I could defend. I don't think they got their due for what is coming in mathematical econ.
|timestamp=5:01 AM · Jan 31, 2023
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|name=Andromeda
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|content=I would’ve guessed you liked Ken Arrow, Eric. The work for which he won a Nobel Prize in 1972, seems right up your street. Tbh having learnt some of Ken Arrows works in my final year of my economics degree, it completely changed the way I looked at elections + institutions.
|timestamp=11:07 AM · Jan 30, 2023
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|timestamp=2:24 AM · Feb 1, 2023
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1625234172418875392
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=EricRWeinstein
|content=[[Ken Arrow|Arrow]], Frisch, [[Paul Samuelson|Samuelson]], VonNeumann, Nash, Friedman, Smith, Mill, [[François Divisia|Divisia]], [[Ronald Coase|Coase]], Marshall, Fisher, Debreu, Tinbergen, etc. 

I have deep issues with economics. But I don’t think I understand your point.
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|name=Martin Bauer
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|content=Yes, but when I said ‘brightest minds’ I meant it.
|timestamp=8:43 PM · Feb 13, 2023
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|timestamp=8:43 PM · Feb 13, 2023
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