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=== 2021 === {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254943983140865 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Thanks. |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254928929738756 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Thanks for the invitation. I can try to explain my concern. There really *is* a problem w MAGA, Trump, Qanon & conspiracy theories running rampant. And it will result in death & destruction if it spins out of control. However it is being fueled by those who claim to fight it. |quote= {{Tweet |image=CBR_wick-profile.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/CBR_wick/status/1360207572167499784 |name=CBR_wick |usernameurl=https://x.com/CBR_wick |username=CBR_wick |content=Hi @EricRWeinstein. Can you please explain to the public why you would be preemptive like this in a way that seems to contradict your value system? 🙏 |timestamp=12:42 AM · Feb 12, 2021 }} |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254931400204292 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The entire war over fact checking is a war of 2 low resolution teams. One team wants absolute freedom to spread wild eyed theories that just about everything is a psyop or a false flag. The other team wants to impose institutional consensus reality on everyone via media & tech. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254932398448642 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Unfortunately, I can’t live under either. So each of the warring parties thinks I’m against them & for the other team. In their mentalities if you aren’t on their simplistic team you are, de facto, working for the other side. There’s no basic concept of *responsible* heterodoxy. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254933476417540 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=No the Freemasons do not run everything on behalf of pedophile reptilians who faked Sandy Hook with crisis actors. Yes there are/were conspiracies behind [[Jeffrey Epstein|Epstein]], [[H-1B Visa|H1B]], @MSNBC, PPE, climate science, the “[[Great Moderation]]”, Great Reset...everywhere institutions want a “consensus”. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254934520721410 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Having spent a good portion of my 20s at Harvard, I know *exactly* how this game works. Our betters sit down and try to figure out how to control others behind closed doors. They see themselves as the intrinsically enlightened people who need to do the thinking for all of us. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254935560933378 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=When they wanted to cut our Social Security payments & raise our taxes they opted to try to change the [[CPI]] rather than pass legislation. When they wanted to pay less for scientists they knew to keep *silent* about [[National Science Foundation (NSF)|NSF]] [[Labor Shortages|Labor Shortage]] claims even though such shortages don’t exist. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254936504627202 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=These are the folks who tell you “masks don’t work” rather than “save masks for doctors as we forgot to restock them and moved all manufacturing to China like morons”. They will then spin on a dime to tell you “Only bad dumb people don’t wear masks”. This is the worst of Harvard. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254937456730120 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=So I don’t want Alex Jones and Qanon nor do I want @TwitterSafety, @msnbc and @Harvard. I see them as very different forms of the same thing: people who want to take away our ability to see clearly. And, I assure you, @Harvard tries to paint anyone it can’t control as dangerous. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254938513764354 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=So, my belief is that anyone who rejects/questions Davos, Consensus Reality, Institutional Narrative, Public Health Campaigns, High Immigration, Peer Review, Primary Election Coverage, Trust & Safety...will be treated as Alex Jones sooner or Later. This is [[Managed Reality TM|Managed Reality ™]]. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254939549769728 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I cannot live in [[Managed Reality TM|Managed Reality ™]] because I think it defeats the purpose of being a human being. It negates being an American. It abdicates responsibility for our children. I have defeated Harvard about half the times we have fought. How? Because they just aren’t that good. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254940799668225 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=[[Managed Reality TM|Managed Reality ™]] has a weak spot. It’s not run by our A-team anymore. Fauci isn’t Francis Crick. Biden isn’t Elon. Janet Yellen isn’t Satoshi. In general, the A-Team is going independent because tech/media/Ed are enforcing way too much conformity through personal destruction. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254941873414148 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=So why am I worried? Well, I’ve been trying to save the institutions. It’s probably doomed, but almost no one is trying to do what I do: rescue the institutions from their death spiral by reinserting their critics in positions of prominence (eg Chomsky at MIT). Hence my fear. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1360254942955540482 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=If I were a tech guy I’d retreat into wealth. If I were a professor I’d shut up and collect my salary with job security. If I was a politician or journalist I’d follow the other sheep. But I’m a science guy, an American and a dad. And I want my kids to have a particular future. |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} |timestamp=3:50 PM · Feb 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1382349288324276225 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Many years ago 2002-6, I would give talks about Madoff & Epstein using “Black Arts Capital LLC” as a proxy, with the tag line “We’d tell you what we’re doing, but then...” I guessed BM might be front-running his own business. Boy was I wrong on the specifics. RIP Bernie Madoff. |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1382349286495555595 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=“In today’s regulatory environment It’s virtually impossible to violate rules. And this is something the public really doesn’t understand...It’s impossible for a violation to go undetected; certainly not for an extended period of time.” -Former NASDQ Chairman, Bernie Madoff |timestamp=3:05 PM · Apr 14, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1382349287284117507 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=This is what institutional betrayal looks like when you stare straight in its eyes: relaxed, confident, respectable, smooth, knowledgeable. It’s COVID pronouncements. Or String Theory. Or [[CPI]] revisions. Or “[[Labor Shortages]]”. Or fast-track trade treaties: {{#widget:YouTube|id=ab1NTIlO-FM}} |timestamp=3:05 PM · Apr 14, 2021 }} |timestamp=3:05 PM · Apr 14, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1382366173073793027 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The [[Morals|moral]] of the story to me is this: We can’t have outside folks calculating and theorizing while the inside economists are fudging and cooking the books. And calling me crazy won’t change a thing when this is finally understood. It’s simply institutional academic malpractice. |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1382366169257021441 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=One of the things my trolls like to point to is outrageous claims. One of my most *outrageous* is that my joint work on a 2nd Marginal Revolution for economics was scuttled by the Harvard Department of Economics '''Boskin Commissioners'''. Yet it’s admitted: https://ritholtz.com/2010/01/why-michael-boskin-deserves-our-contempt/ |timestamp=4:12 PM · Apr 14, 2021 |media1=Greg-Mankiw-CPI-Boskin-Ey8mtHXVoAMUYqS.jpg }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1382366170766987269 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=It’s kind of an interesting puzzle. Why is it that a Harvard Professor (Mankiw) can say the truth which is that this was a conspiracy to cut entitlements. But the only two people who can CALCULATE a COLA for changing tastes are crazy for saying their work was deliberately buried? |timestamp=4:12 PM · Apr 14, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1382366171542876166 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=In any event, I stand by my claim. The [[Boskin Commission]] was organized by Moynihan and Packwood to deliberately break the [[CPI]] in a precise amount to avoid the US paying 1 trillion dollars over 10 years. And I promise you no leading economist will call bullshit to debate this. |timestamp=4:12 PM · Apr 14, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1382366172302041100 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=On of the reasons is that one of the commissioners bragged about this being the motivation behind the scenes. Okay. So why can’t we have gauge theoretic economics reevaluated? Everyone admits this is what happened. Why continue to bury the advance? I dunno. But it’s amazing! |timestamp=4:12 PM · Apr 14, 2021 }} |timestamp=4:12 PM · Apr 14, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1392546868006035460 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=[[Morals|Moral]]: whoever constructs [[CPI]] and GDP numbers in a dynamic economy is in a position to fake higher growth and lower inflation if they are also in a position to stop the field from debating methodological advances that would restrict the freedom to make up index number recipes. 🙏 |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1392546863098695681 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Claim: when it comes to inflation and growth, Economists don’t even understand the theory of their *own* price and quantity indices mathematically: {{#widget:YouTube|id=h5gnATQMtPg}} |quote= {{Tweet |image=APompliano-profile-PxWzJo1H.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/APompliano/status/1392499942846083082 |name=Anthony Pompliano |usernameurl=https://x.com/APompliano |username=APompliano |content=WILD IDEA: Maybe the economists don't actually understand what is going on right now? https://x.com/disclosetv/sta/disclosetv/status/1392488787838742536 |timestamp=6:26 PM · May 12, 2021 }} |timestamp=6:26 PM · May 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1392546864537374720 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The problem of inflation index calculation has not been adequately updated since Ragnar Frisch destroyed Irving Fisher’s attempt to axiomatize economic indices following the last great advances of F. Divisia and A. Konüs on continuous and welfare indices respectively. |timestamp=6:26 PM · May 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1392546865275555840 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Economists are holding their own field back by retaining their freedom to just cook up any revised index they want. It’s as if physicists retained the right to define temperature differently every year based on a closed door meeting and manufactured new thermometers thereafter. |timestamp=6:26 PM · May 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1392546866005307392 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=If you’re going to push us all to move to “true” “economic” indices & chain them to reflect dynamic actors (or to disguise true inflation!), you would end up chaining ordinal preferences. And you can’t do that without gauge theory because it is a problem in parallel transport. |timestamp=6:26 PM · May 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1392546866756083712 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Watch the US [[CPI]] revisions and methodology going forward. People who like to print money tend to want to change their definition of inflation and therefore don’t like anyone taking away freedom to make up methodologies to suit their political objectives involving wealth transfer. |timestamp=6:26 PM · May 12, 2021 }} |timestamp=6:27 PM · May 12, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1404695010600120326 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=[[Morals|Moral]]: [[Gauge Theory]] fixes this intellectual corruption problem of economic imperialism, and #btc, blockchains and Crytpo can help. |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1404693220848590851 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=[[CPI]] is broken. Why? Think of [[CPI]] as a gauge like a thermometer. You can’t have politically motivated folks making your thermometers or they can change the design to cover up climate change. Likewise you can’t have economists changing the gauge to disguise the effect of printing. |quote= {{Tweet |image=samkazemian-profile.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/samkazemian/status/1404565972728487939 |name=sam.frax |usernameurl=https://x.com/samkazemian |username=samkazemian |content=A crypto native [[CPI]] governed on the blockchain to create a decentralized stablecoin people can rely on to keep their standard of living the same across time. A true alternative to fiat rather than a speculative investment asset like most other coins. |timestamp=6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} |timestamp=6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1404693222324989964 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The economists can’t yet compute a dynamic Cost-Of-Living-Adjustment or COLA or “Chained Changing Preference Ordinal Welfare Konus Index” to be perfectly pedantic. Not because it doesn’t exist. But because they don’t have the math and don’t want to lose their finger on the scale. |timestamp=6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1404693223138684929 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=We must take [[CPI]] away from those who wish to back out a political agenda of printing money, raising our taxes by indexed tax brackets and slashing our indexed social security & Medicare. Economics can’t construct dynamic economic gauges like [[CPI]]/GDP until it learns [[Gauge Theory|gauge thy]]. |timestamp=6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1404693223973347335 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=But more importantly, we have a culture that economics literally trumpets (and I swear I am not making this up) “Economic Imperialism”. It is “we know math and you don’t”-culture. No. They don’t know their own math. I will debate any high ranking economist on this point. |timestamp=6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1404693225063940103 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=It’s time to reveal that economics, far from embracing math or having physics envy, is deliberately avoiding solutions to old problems so that it can make up new gauges for [[CPI]]/GDP at will while telling the rest of the soft sciences “We know your field better because we do math.” |timestamp=6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1404693225873448963 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=No. Economics is an avoiding gauge theory, connections, Lie Groups, etc so it can retain its political relevance as an expert consultancy. I’m with the crypto folks on this. Our economy must be protected from Seigniorage (printing money) and [[CPI]] tampering (e.g. [[Boskin Commission]]). |timestamp=6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1404693226695499782 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=[[CPI]] should not…MUST NOT…be adjustable to disguise inflation. It needs to be protected from the FED diluting the power of money and the BLS being free to disguise the effects by changing the method of construction. {{#widget:YouTube|id=XjCAsXUDvno}} |timestamp=6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1404693228473880576 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=End the forced wealth transfers of central bankers covering up their own failures with “Relief”, “Easing”, “Stimulous”, “Rescues”, “Toxic Asset Purchases”, and other bailouts of our incompetent financial overlords. We must protect [[CPI]] from economists disguising wealth dilution. |timestamp=6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1404693229245657094 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=P.S. before you remind me how arrogant this sounds, keep in mind, that I am willing to debate this publicly with any leading economist eager to defend the central bankers and triumphalist theorists openly bragging about their math. Read this, and be sick: https://nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w7300/w7300.pdf |timestamp=6:52 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} |timestamp=6:59 AM · Jun 15, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1423394651373858816 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=This eliminates a step or two. You may have to watch in lower resolution if you are on your phone however: https://x.com/sabinowitz/status/1423394091409330182 |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1423391836417056773 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I am wholly supportive of this effort. Whether this iteration succeeds or fails is immaterial. The important thing is to take inflation away from those who would disguise: A) The printing of fiat money by central bankers. B) The fact that economists are holding back the field. |quote= {{Tweet |image=balajis-profile-LOUb2m4R.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/balajis/status/1423330960481816582 |name=Balaji |usernameurl=https://x.com/balajis |username=balajis |content=A truly global inflation dashboard would be the next coinmarketcap. It'd be bigger than that, in fact. So we're offering a little prize to build one. |timestamp=5:11 PM · Aug 5, 2021 }} |timestamp=9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1423391838778527746 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Why are they holding back the theory of index numbers ([[CPI]], GDP)? Because the more innovation, the less freedom to dial our gauges to whatever values the political patrons of macro economics ask. The field is literally held back by leading economists to preserve their own power. |timestamp=9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1423391839638364162 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Around 1996, [[Boskin Commission|Boskin Commissioner]] Jorgensen held back the biggest unambiguous advance in mathematical economics that I am aware of in decades. It would have interfered with their finding that the [[CPI]] was 1.1% overstated. He calculated 1.1% would save a round Trillion for U.S. |timestamp=9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1423391840535863296 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=We can’t afford for economics to pretend it is a science in public, yet act as an incentive operated consultancy which can get you any result you need to fit the political agenda. So this effort of @balajis needs to be supported! We must take this away from our current leaders. |timestamp=9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1423391841592901635 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Inflation is like a thermometer. You ask how hot/cold it is. You don’t get to ask “What do you need the Gauge to say? How much thumb should be on the scale?” This is all discussed in detail by Jim Weatherall in his book in the final chapter/epilogue: https://www.amazon.com/Physics-Wall-Street-Predicting-Unpredictable-ebook/dp/B006R8PMJS/ref=nodl_ |timestamp=9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1423391842624696321 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Lastly, it is high time my co-developer of the theory got her due without being subjected to both the Matilda & Matthew effects. Man-boys really do drive technical women out of technical fields because they can’t cite a woman who is smarter than they are. Enough. Go @balajis. |timestamp=9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1423391843572617218 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The co-developer of gauge thy in econ as a 2nd Marginal Revolution is Pia Malaney in the early 1990s at Harvard. There is no reason to pretend this inflation thy never happened just to flatter power. Let’s disintermediate the old: {{#widget:YouTube|id=zwiHv7xVQ_c}} https://www.openculture.com/2018/08/the-matilda-effect.html |timestamp=9:13 PM · Aug 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1423392839568789504 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I think this is a great introduction to geometric marginalism and economic field theory. Hope you love it: https://www.fields.utoronto.ca/talks/neoclassical-mechanics-economic-field-theory |timestamp=9:17 PM · Aug 5, 2021 }} |timestamp=9:25 PM · Aug 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1448707337372377090 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=A thermometer is a gauge of temperature. You can't let those trying to disguise human impact on climate change make the thermometers giving them discretion. A '''price index''' is a gauge of prices. Likewise, we need to remove as much discretion from the @BLS_gov gauge as possible. |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1448707335023579146 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=For the technically inclined who are wondering about the measurment & theory of Inflation/[[CPI]] construction, I highly recommend the following search terms: "Konus index", "superlative index", "Divisia Index", "cycling problem", "mechanical index number", "COLA" and "chain index". |timestamp=5:48 PM · Oct 14, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1448707336244064256 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=You'll soon see that "[[The Index Number Problem: A Differential Geometric Approach|The Index Number Problem]]" lies beneath everything from the measurement of the impact of prices on households/consumers, to the construction of Divisa Monetary Aggregates & the measurement of the money supply. Our gauges are riddled with error & discretion. |timestamp=5:48 PM · Oct 14, 2021 }} |timestamp=5:48 PM · Oct 14, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1451991301138751488 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=X) Loss of '''Academic Freedom''' across the board in Academe. Y) Loss of the Lancet and other publications as trusted non-political sources of fact. Z) The true nature of @EcoHealthNYC w its relationship to @doddtra & Dr A. Fauci. [[Morals|Moral]]: much of this 'ambiguity' is serving the few. |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1451991295149281281 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Things I don't believe we can't conclusively resolve: A) COVID's origin. B) The Jeffrey Epstein story. C) UAP. D) JFK assassination. E) Vegas Shooting. F) Extent of 'Democracy Fortifying' in 2020. G) Efficacy of Non-Vaccines. H) Mysterious WEF 'Build Back Better' mantra. |timestamp=7:17 PM · Oct 23, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1451991296424374274 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I) Negative impacts of Trade known to have been suppressed. J) Adulteration of BLS [[CPI]] measure of inflation. K) Negative economic impacts of Immigration. L) Sudden spike in fake 'Objective Third Party Fact Checking'. M) Sudden "Diversity Equity Inclusion" explosion. |timestamp=7:17 PM · Oct 23, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1451991298706079745 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Q) Joe Biden's state of cognitive decline. R) Nature of MSNBC campagin against Andrew Yang. S) Nature of Dean Scream, Anti-Ron Paul and other interference in democracy by Mainstream media News. T) Impact of loss of mandatory retirement on young people seeking work. U) Rex84. |timestamp=7:17 PM · Oct 23, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1451991299838529541 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=V) Collusion between National Academy and National Science foundation division of Policy Research and Analysis to fake demographic crisis in mid 1980s. W) Lack on anyone building the significant & desperately needed new non-profit institutions despite skyhigh wealth inequality. |timestamp=7:17 PM · Oct 23, 2021 }} |timestamp=7:17 PM · Oct 23, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1455056318947938305 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Can just *one* of them compute a simple Cost-Of-Living [[CPI]] for a consumer whose notion of well-being evolves even *slightly* during any period in question? I claim not. Let's not get carried away with this concept of economic experts. This field first needs to become healthy. |quote= {{Tweet |image=SecretaryPete-profile-6CqrbW6U.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/SecretaryPete/status/1454923266200584193 |name=Secretary Pete Buttigieg |usernameurl=https://x.com/SecretaryPete |username=SecretaryPete |content=An important, under-appreciated feature of the Build Back Better package is how it helps fight inflation. It’s not just us saying so - leading economists and analysts have pointed this out. https://fortune.com/2021/09/21/nobel-prize-winning-economists-back-joe-biden-build-back-better-plan/ |timestamp=9:28 PM · Oct 31, 2021 }} |timestamp=6:17 AM · Nov 1, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456428604246560776 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=<nowiki>*</nowiki>leads not leases in the above. |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456319697855528960 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=ANNOUNCEMENT: I head next week to @UChicago for 5 days (Nov. 8-12) at the request of its storied Department of Economics to present our theory that all of economics is based on the wrong version of the differential calculus. Importantly, this error afflicts Inflation & the [[CPI]]. |timestamp=5:57 PM · Nov 4, 2021 |media1=Gauge_Theory_UChicago_Talk_Cover.jpg }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456319699805884417 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I am a huge believer in the University of Chicago and its ability to stay the course while all others bend to the prevailing winds. As such, I may (or may not) be announcing other events to discuss other work (e.g. Geometric Unity) depending on time, interest & availability.🙏 |timestamp=5:57 PM · Nov 4, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456319702305759237 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Please retweet the top tweet if you're followed by economists & others interested in the debate over inflation and [[CPI]], and your followers would find a new geometric Marginal Revolution of interest. Thanks! cc: @tylercowen, @Breedlove22, @paulmromer, @PeterMcCormack, @EconTalker. |timestamp=5:57 PM · Nov 4, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=PeterRyan-profile-MGctNrxp.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1456400865766490117 |name=Peter Ryan |usernameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan |username=_PeterRyan |content=Hi Eric, where can I find your calculations, data, and conclusions on what the real inflation and CPI numbers are? |timestamp=11:19 AM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456406149020872704 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Weird question. You seem to have me confused for the BLS. I don't take in Data. I don't have a staff or a budget. You're assuming that I have the 'Real Inflation & [[CPI]] numbers'. I don't. This is about not even having a correct *theory* to calculate. What we corrected was theory. |timestamp=11:40 PM · Nov 4, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456406149020872704 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Just to give you an idea: |media1=ERW-X-post-1456406937155764225-FDYyVfZUcAQipT1.jpg |timestamp=11:44 PM · Nov 4, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=PeterRyan-profile-MGctNrxp.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1456407821247938562 |name=Peter Ryan |usernameurl=https://x.com/_PeterRyan |username=_PeterRyan |content=So if you have the correct theory then why wouldn't you be able to calculate the correct results from the existing input data available? |timestamp=11:47 AM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456426248326897666 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I didn’t say what you said. I said there was a wrong theory for [[CPI]]. We corrected that theory. The issue of how to implement a theory in practice leases to different data being collected and different aggregations. For a different theory, you would collect different data. |timestamp=1:00 AM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456427997813116928 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=As an example. The [[Boskin Commission|Boskin commission]] gave a single illustrative example in their report using two goods, chicken and beef. They gave prices but not ordinal utility. Here is the COL answer assuming Cobb-Douglas and Linear interpolation of all quantities. They could not compute it. |timestamp=1:07 AM · Nov 5, 2021 |media1=ERW-X-post-1456427997813116928-FDZFiwNUYAUWtIs.jpg }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456428415842586631 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The reason they had no theory to cover it was because the C-D exponent changed. And there is a claim that no extension of the Konus COL exists for dynamic tastes. Hope that helps with your confusion. Be well. |timestamp=1:09 AM · Nov 5, 2021 }} |timestamp=1:10 AM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762157949808644 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=See you in Chicago. Let's take back [[CPI]] inflation which leads to mega transfers, from our unaccountable 'experts' before the money supply, modern monetary theory, and [[CPI]] hacking transfer even more of the wealth of ordinary people to those few who hold significant risk assets. 🙏 |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762146805608449 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Sorry to say that I've been informed that my upcoming Nov. 10, Money & Banking Workshop at @UChi_Economics will closed to non-@UChicago folks, as will the Zoom connection. Researchers in other fields/students are allowed to attend. This sort of breaks my no closed chambers rule. |timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021 |media1=ERW-X-post-1456762146805608449-FDdqC1tUcAE5sPX.jpg }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762149707997184 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Because this is arguably the most famous econ seminar running, it's widely known for being absolutely *brutal* yet also fair (it was founded by M. Friedman). Thus I have decided NOT to get hung up on this issue, but will comit to give an OPEN seminar on the same subject if asked. |timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762151347974144 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I am particularly irritated by the dismissive nature of the academic economists towards my tagging members of the Bitcoin community as if they are some kind of a joke. If you bitcoiners want to have a jam session on this material, I'm yours. Despite our frictions, we're aligned. |timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762152484696064 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The academic economists need to learn a lesson that the public is not going to stand again for revisions in [[CPI]] that disguise inflation, tax us through indexing our brackets, or impoverish us through under compensating cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security and Medicare. |timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762154141446148 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I also want to say this, there is a tremendous amount of nasty Glee on #EconTwitter that this is going to be a blow out. A mauling. That I have no idea what I am in for. Etc. If you're an economist interested in expressing your bitchery as a bet, I'm not above taking your money. |timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762155705856000 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=If you're an economist convinced that this is hilarious, propose a bet. Your arrogance is really my opportunity set after all... As long as your seminar is fair, I'll be just fine. Academic econ. is in a *lot* more trouble than I am. So, if I could open the livestream, I would. |timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1456762156871917569 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The two most dangerous printing presses in Washington DC are directed by the Federal Reserve to dilute our dollar assets, and the @BLS_gov to print [[CPI]] inflation numbers that increase taxes through underindexed brackets & slash entitlements we pay into over our working lives. |timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} |timestamp=11:15 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048565964963841 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=What I'm looking for is for BLS to stop pretending it's discerning "THE rate of inflation" to admit that it's making *policy* choices while appearing to be technical. It's determining our taxes and our entitlements by indexing, with our future in its hands as mere 'technicians'. |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048560050925568 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Great news, given that *every* tick of your BLS CPI forces billions of dollars to change hands. "The concept of the cost-of-living index guides the CPI measurement objective and is the standard by which any bias in the CPI is defined." I found this on @BLS_gov site. Is it true? |quote= {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1456774249654411266 |name=Joey-Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=I assure you we are not dangerous! If you want to read about how the BLS calculates the consumer price index you can check out the CPI handbook of methods (https://bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/). |timestamp=12:03 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} |timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048561535782914 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I cannot find any place where the preference maps needed to construct a Laspeyres Konus COL index are gleaned through revealed preference. I will go so far as to say that this is bait & switch. There is a CLAIM of a COL framework, but no one is constructing anything of the kind. |timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048562546532354 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Q1: Where exactly do I find the ordinal indifference maps constructed by BLS for a 'Representative Consumer' used to find substitution bias in fixed basket Mechanical approximations to a welfare Cost-Of-Living framework based on a Konus economic index of intertemporal welfare? |timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048563532251145 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Q2: What happens to our BLS COL framework when ordinal tastes change? How is the effect of substitution due to price change disaggregated by BLS from changes in ordinal preferences? This is important because marketing, education, etc change tastes & there is no theory for this. |timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048564547272705 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Let me give you the non-answers so you can correct: A1: "Well, you are looking at it too literally...we have studied superlative index numbers which give a second order approximation to flexible functional form...blah blah blah." A2: "That's really an obscure academic issue." |timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} |timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457101242434351105 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Sorry but that doesn’t make sense. It’s selfcontradictory doublespeak. It literally just said that despite BLS COL framework claims, a Mechanical index is used w/ base periods *quantities* held fixed. COL *requires preferences*. Where are they? There are/aren’t preference maps? |thread= {{Tweet |image=besttrousers-profile-OGbByGBP.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/besttrousers/status/1457052884839829506 |name=Matt Darling |usernameurl=https://x.com/besttrousers |username=besttrousers |content=https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm |media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457082991067516941-FDiZONeX0AUfiln.jpg |quote= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048565964963841 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=What I'm looking for is for BLS to stop pretending it's discerning "THE rate of inflation" to admit that it's making *policy* choices while appearing to be technical. It's determining our taxes and our entitlements by indexing, with our future in its hands as mere 'technicians'. |timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} |timestamp=6:56 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457059215655280647 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content="[A] market basket of goods and services equivalent to one they could purchase in an earlier period." Exactly. Looking for the *exact* *technical* definition of 'equivalent' in the above. Can you point me to it? I assume it's a notion of revealed indifference in ordinal welfare. |timestamp=6:56 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457059777419231235 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I wasn't able to find the answer to the above. Perhaps you had better luck? |quote= {{Tweet |image=besttrousers-profile-OGbByGBP.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/besttrousers/status/1457053486957400064 |name=Matt Darling |usernameurl=https://x.com/besttrousers |username=besttrousers |content=This is why it is useful to read the handbook of methods! |timestamp=6:33 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} |timestamp=6:58 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457088133397372936 |name=Joey-Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=Since CPI is a Laspeyres-based index, the "equivalent" in this case refers to the weighting of the basket. I like this research note on the difference between the modified Laspeyres formula CPI currently uses and a possible geometric mean formula. https://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.br121996.geors.htm |timestamp=8:50 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457091492825088002 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Uh…The Laspeyres is a *mechanical* index. The BLS site says it works within a *COL* framework. When Mechanical = COL, it is called an exact index. You are not saying that BLS believes '''Laspeyres CPI''' = Konus COL I assume, because that is false. So what are you and BLS saying? |timestamp=9:04 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457097908969517057 |name=Joey-Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=I think this might do a better job describing it than I can: |media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457097908969517057-FDimpKzXEBAjlZc.jpg |media2=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457097908969517057-FDimvaiWYAMHHet.jpg |timestamp=9:29 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} |timestamp=9:43 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457110028792463360 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Wait. Slow down. Did you just say that BLS is claiming to work within a Cost of Living framework which *requires* preference maps *definitionally*, but…words fail me…has no preference maps? At all?? I must not be understanding. Chaining Tornqvist indexes isn’t an answer here. https://t.co/IyIArW40OV |media1=ERW-X-post-1457110028792463360-FDix2ViVkAA64YY.jpg |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457048560050925568 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Great news, given that *every* tick of your BLS [[CPI]] forces billions of dollars to change hands. "The concept of the cost-of-living index guides the [[CPI]] measurement objective and is the standard by which any bias in the CPI is defined." I found this on @BLS_gov site. Is it true? |quote= {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1456774249654411266 |name=Joey-Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=I assure you we are not dangerous! If you want to read about how the BLS calculates the consumer price index you can check out the CPI handbook of methods (https://bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/). |timestamp=12:03 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} |timestamp=6:13 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457082873064869890 |name=Joey-Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=I can only answer your questions in a personal capacity, not as an official representative of BLS. I would encourage you to reach out to CPI team with any questions and they would be happy to answer.(https://data.bls.gov/forms/cpi.htm?/cpi/home.htm) |timestamp=8:30 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457082991067516941 |name=Joey-Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=The Bureau is rather open that the main Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is only one measurement of cost of living and the prices faced by consumers', and there are good reasons that the Federal Reserve targets the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index instead of CPI. |media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457082991067516941-FDiZONeX0AUfiln.jpg |timestamp=8:30 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457083105299378184 |name=Joey-Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=In addition, the Bureau is open about the limitations of the CPI and works continually to update methods and calculations in order to improve price measurements and indexing. |media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457083105299378184-FDiZVkZWEAAoz_C.jpg |timestamp=8:30 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457083268122173444 |name=Joey-Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=The Bureau has introduced alternative data series (including the chained CPI index) to better account for the taste changes and substitution effects that reflect real consumer spending habits. You see information for that index here: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-questions-and-answers.htm |timestamp=8:31 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457083268122173444 |name=Joey-Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=The CPI is guided by the concept of a COL index, but is not a perfect measurement of either cost of living or inflation. The Bureau is open about the inherent flaws in the index and has had to make tough choices in a tradeoff between precision, complexity, and timeliness. |media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457083478646874114-FDiZpZMXoA46r48.jpg |timestamp=8:32 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457088660759670785 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=“Guided by the concept of a COL index but is not a perfect measurement.” Can you show me *any* imperfect COL preferences to give me a sense of how far we may be off? Specifically preference maps: there is no COL without preference maps with which to evaluate substitution bias. |timestamp=8:53 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457089741950631936 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Q: Where do I find the imperfect preferences maps for the COL claim? Q: How were those preference maps computed or imputed? Q: How does chained [[CPI]] calculate taste change given the claim of the fed that time varying ordinal preferences cannot be tracked in COL even in theory? |timestamp=8:57 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457096567429599233 |name=Joey-Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=There are no preference maps, chained CPI employs a superlative Tornqvist formula to account for substitution. The documents introducing the chained CPI do a better job outlining the methodological and theoretical structures than I could.(https://bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-introduction.pdf) |media1=JosephPolitano-X-post-1457096567429599233-FDikbqWXoAMvGvc.jpg |timestamp=9:24 PM · Nov 5, 2021 }} |timestamp=10:17 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457572729419354115 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=And we are not even trying to measure that. To this day, I can't *really* understand what CPI-U is. That is either because I'm too dumb, or the field has gone mad agreeing with itself while disconnected from reality. And I believe no one is that dumb. Even on a really bad day... |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457572718887555072 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=You mean field. Economics is actually all about fields: field operators & field theory. Technically, inflation is classically like a Wilson Loop observable on path spaces. But economists have historically denigrated path-dependent approaches (e.g. 'cycling problems', 'drift').🤷 |quote= {{Tweet |image=saylor-profile-8t0DGo6V.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/saylor/status/1457332967869665284 |name=Michael Saylor |usernameurl=https://x.com/saylor |username=saylor |content=There is a different inflation rate for every consumer, varying all the time, depending on their consumption requirements and jurisdiction. Inflation is a vector, not a scalar. Just like fluid dynamics & aerodynamics, it is impossible to model an economy with simple arithmetic. |timestamp=1:03 PM · Nov 8, 2021 }} |timestamp=4:56 AM · Nov 8, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457572721081163778 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=You have no idea how crazy econ got to make us all the same so that what we're saying can be ignored. Seriously, think about asserting that all folks have the same tastes & that they can never change so that economists can use 'Stable preferences...relentlessly & unflinchingly'. |timestamp=4:56 AM · Nov 8, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457572722482028550 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=You will see in the inflation literature various bizarre tendencies to introduce 'homogenous' or 'homothetic' utility functions and to hold these functions fixed. Ultimately it fell to 2 giants to claim that taste is universal. That way, rich/poor, you/me all have common utility. |timestamp=4:56 AM · Nov 8, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457572723757027329 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=“The combined assumptions of maximizing behavior, market equilibrium, and stable preferences, used relentlessly and unflinchingly, form the heart of the economic approach...” -Gary Becker Followed by inexplicable & inscrutable 'work' of Becker & Stigler: https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/016726818990067X |timestamp=4:56 AM · Nov 8, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457572725145411588 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The move to look out for is 'Superlative price index numbers give an excellent approximation to the true 'Cost-Of-Living'!" which totally sidesteps the field issue you bring up, the dynamic taste issue (replaced by 'Stable preferences'), & inequality (replaced by homotheticity). |timestamp=4:56 AM · Nov 8, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457572726558834690 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=All of these simplifications are made better in a fully path dependent field theory framework with endogenously determined differential operators. Claiming we all have the same unchanging tastes (e.g. Becker-Stigler) and working in simplified regimes isn't at all understandable. |timestamp=4:56 AM · Nov 8, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457572728098152452 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=It's like publishing a number for the temperature in the US in 2020. Your path dependent price index measure of inflation is as individual as your commute. It's *mildly* meaningul to posit a 'representative commute to work' that doesn't depend on our various routes. But not very. |timestamp=4:56 AM · Nov 8, 2021 }} |timestamp=4:56 AM · Nov 8, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1465734921029177353 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=And, no, the answers to these questions are NOT in the BLS handbook on [[CPI]] methodology. I’ve looked. |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1465734095313408000 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Surprise. [Word to the wise: watch very very carefully how your [[CPI]] is constructed. You have the right to know EXACTLY how it is constructed.] |quote= {{Tweet |image=business-profile-fjgaR2p.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/business/status/1465707440725393414 |name=Bloomberg |usernameurl=https://x.com/business |username=business |content=NEW: Powell says it's time to retire the word "transitory" regarding inflation https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2021-11-29/powell-and-yellen-in-the-senate-kwkw102n |media1=business-X-post-1465707440725393414-FFc9JmJUYAAfogN.jpg |timestamp=3:41 AM · Nov 30, 2021 }} |timestamp=5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1465734099130146821 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=It’s hard to imagine how confused Economics is. Imagine you work for the @BLS_gov and you have to admit that your agency claims to compute our Inflation within a Cost-Of-Living framework, but doesn’t maintain the central ingredient needed to compute or even impute Cost-Of-Living. |quote= {{Tweet |image=JosephPolitano-profile-BgypCCjy.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1457096567429599233 |name=Joey Politano |usernameurl=https://x.com/JosephPolitano |username=JosephPolitano |content=There are no preference maps, chained CPI employs a superlative Tornqvist formula to account for substitution. The documents introducing the chained CPI do a better job outlining the methodological and theoretical structures than I could.(https://bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-introduction.pdf) |timestamp=10:24 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} |timestamp=5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1465734101000802309 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Follow the thread back from here. This is where the conversation ends. #EconTwitter may tell you terrible things about me. Maybe. Or maybe they don’t have a theory that works and they refuse to admit it while transferring billions through CPI releases. |quote= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1457110028792463360 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Wait. Slow down. Did you just say that BLS is claiming to work within a Cost of Living framework which *requires* preference maps *definitionally*, but…words fail me…has no preference maps? At all?? I must not be understanding. Chaining Tornqvist indexes isn’t an answer here. |media1=ERW-X-post-1457110028792463360-FDix2ViVkAA64YY.jpg |timestamp=10:17 PM · Nov 6, 2021 }} |timestamp=5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1465734104264032261 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=You cannot keep mumbling Economic word salad forever “Modified Laspeyres…core inflation…Lowe generalization of the Laspeyres…Chained Tornqvist with revisions…chain drift…superlative index approximates flexible functional form…” |timestamp=5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1465734110681321472 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Tastes change. Cost-Of-Living inflation is about tastes. If tastes evolve in time, the economists’ COL framework disintegrates. That is: there is NO theory. #EconTwitter can tell you I don’t get it. It is THEY who don’t get it. They can’t escape it. It’s in their own literature. |timestamp=5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021 |media1=ERW-X-post-1465734110681321472-FFdVZ6YVUAQYY9k.jpg }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1465734113332129795 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=What you are seeing reported as Inflation is not coming from a well grounded theory. It is coming from human beings making policy level judgements as if they were merely making technical adjustments to a technical time series devoid of values about who should benefit or suffer. |timestamp=5:26 PM · Nov 30, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1465734615037931527 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=[[Morals|Moral]]: you have a right to know what’s in your food and how your pharmaceuticals were tested. You have a right to ask your surgeon what she plans to do during an operation. You have a right to demand what economists are actually measuring as Cost-Of-Living W/O abuse for asking. |timestamp=5:28 PM · Nov 30, 2021 }} |timestamp=5:30 PM · Nov 30, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1476132726084280321 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I’m prepared to have high level conversations about this. But our current system is an abomination. No one knows what is in or out. It’s a black box that means little. The theory is bad. The explanations are fake. And the system is opaque. Even a Laspeyres without lies is better. |thread= {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1476058806555578370 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The funniest part of our inflation measure is the “.8” here. I so wish they were a little bolder and went with “6.8139942%, plus or minus 3*10**(-7) according to a Lowe index modified by hedonic adjustment for sub-aggregates” or some such. More of us could share such a moment. |quote= {{Tweet |image=charliebilello-profile.png |nameurl=https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1474396489938083861 |name=Charlie Bilello |usernameurl=https://x.com/charliebilello |username=charliebilello |content=5 / The 6.8% inflation rate in the US is the highest inflation we've seen since 1982 and is understating true price increases as it assumes "shelter" (largest component of CPI @ 33%) only increased 3.8% in the last year. Breakdown of reported [[CPI]]: |media1=charliebilello-X-post-1474394587825418246-FHYZj9XXoAIPfHi.jpg |timestamp=3:08 PM · Dec 24, 2021 }} |timestamp=5:13 AM · Dec 29, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1476058808375918592 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=The meaning of the .8 is significant, but only because of the wealth that will be transferred by it. It is not really meaningful as part of a measure of the cost of living for the representative consumer. It’s effectively made up to make the “6.x” look solid. Which it isn’t. |timestamp=5:13 AM · Dec 29, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=b_bran223-profile-oTqdZAfO.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/b_bran223/status/1476074954332508165 |name=JAB |usernameurl=https://x.com/b_bran223 |username=b_bran223 |content=Do you actually have a point here? Your quibble is with the “.8” because it “makes the 6.x look good”??? How do you figure. I honestly think you tweet sometimes purely for the sake of it |timestamp=5:17 AM · Dec 29, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1476085541774917635 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=Actually there are many points. Inflation isn’t a number it’s a field. Inflation is path dependent. Don’t advertise precision that doesn’t exist. [[CPI]] is not yet in the COL framework as claimed by BLS. Path dependence should be embraced. Etc. My followers have heard them. |timestamp=6:59 AM · Dec 29, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=b_bran223-profile-oTqdZAfO.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/b_bran223/status/1476074954332508165 |name=JAB |usernameurl=https://x.com/b_bran223 |username=b_bran223 |content=Eric, I am one such enlightened follower.. In what regard/magnitude is stochastic path dependency to change such CPI value if prior estimates are proportionately miscalculated? At this point in time, how best would you gauge the relative rate? |timestamp=5:17 AM · Dec 29, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=b_bran223-profile-oTqdZAfO.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/b_bran223/status/1476074954332508165 |name=JAB |usernameurl=https://x.com/b_bran223 |username=b_bran223 |content=This seems to be more along the line of your “nuclear vs nucular” reference by which we quibble about semantics, with absurdly low impact on the end problem. The lack of precision for x path dependent function would similarly yield y persons debating lack of precision.. |timestamp=5:21 AM · Dec 29, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1476129648845078530 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=I don’t want to go into it all here. But here is what I want. A) BLS stops lying about COL framework. Stops hand waving about economic vs mechanical indexes. B) Stop readying '''c-cpi-u''' to take over from '''cpi-u'''. We can see you coming. C) Move towards personalized CPI using inputs. |timestamp=9:55 AM · Dec 29, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1476130653548658689 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=D) Embrace curvature if moving to chaining. E) Publish methodology of basket or representative consumer(s). BLS isn’t an oracle. F) Consider moving to a Cobb-Douglas/CES aware changing preference mechanical index if wedded to COL. G) Admit to conflicts of interest ([[Boskin Commission|Boskin]]). |timestamp=9:59 AM · Dec 29, 2021 }} {{Tweet |image=Eric profile picture.jpg |nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1476132066378928128 |name=Eric Weinstein |usernameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein |username=EricRWeinstein |content=H) Move to field theoretic & group-valued indices (e.g. GL(2, R) indices for trade). I) Stop trying to hide Holonomy. It’s there. Accept that it is supposed to be there rather than hiding it with Walsh multi-period circularity test. Etc. But please stop making vacuous claims. |timestamp=10:04 AM · Dec 29, 2021 }} |timestamp=10:07 AM · Dec 29, 2021 }}
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