Editing Russia (section)

=== 2022 ===

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|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=Key point is that there is going to be a lot of distraction and the ambitious may be expected to move rapidly, much the way looting often takes place when police are known to be stretched thin for whatever reason (e.g. an earthquake).
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1496873150243508228
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|content=I think not. But it is close to a multi-polar playing field with a lot of unskilled leaders and N Korea, China, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, India, Russia, The United States, Israel, etc in play at once. So what do I know. 

I may think not, but we *are* eroding our margin for error.
|timestamp=3:42 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|timestamp=3:47 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1496889295054905367
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=Fund *physics* to see IF there is a long term solution. Only physics might be able to allow us to avoid shared fate. I DO think we get through this crisis AND the next few. But it is going to get dicier from here.

Ultimately, “Our home is in the stars or not at all.”

As I said.
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1496888230972583937
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=This isn’t Armageddon. But this IS completely insane. I’ve been saying little else: EXCLUDE the divisive Woke. Find unity. Get the extractive class out of the elite chairs. Make your scientists secure and stop using exchange student labor for science. Budget for financial losses.
|timestamp=4:42 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1496888229739384832
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=I have been relentless in saying we need our institutions, technical, younger patriotic leaders. Bitcoin doesn’t fix this. Burn it all the f down doesn’t work. 

Ok. The big nap is over. Clear? Support our country and keep sharing this speech: 

https://t.co/wkUv8DXaLQ
|timestamp=4:42 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1496888228154011650
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
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|content=We must support our leadership now. In particular we must encourage and support the peacetime careerists who never served &amp; who were born in the 1930s &amp; 40s to enjoy their golden years.

I support Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi. I hope they support us back.

https://t.co/wkUv8DXaLQ
|timestamp=4:42 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1496888232226660363
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=Scale back our foreign commitments. Avoid isolationism. Hold hearings. Stop worshiping “technologists” working with the government. Extend free speech. Teach a culture of American freedom.

Above all: we can’t stay here long term playing Russian roulette:

https://t.co/ZKcXmRpn5a
|timestamp=4:42 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|timestamp=4:46 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1497065511275819013
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@nostaticzone @elonmusk No. He is partially aware (I’m told) and physically knowledgeable, but curiously focused on rockets. At least so far.
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1496894413687033856
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=I’ve been perfectly consistent to the point of perseveration. And we are here now.

The Portal wasn’t a show. The show was just the vehicle. Go listen again. Start with the essay in front of the Ross Douthat episode maybe. 

I can’t help you. Many want to play games. I don’t. 🙏
|timestamp=5:06 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1496894412390998017
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=Twin Nuclei Problem:

COVID-19 Furin Cleavage Site: likely to do with understanding the Nucleus of the cell and its Nucelic acids.

Russia Invading Ukraine: a thermonuclear nation weaponizing the strong force fusion of the other nucleus (of the atom). 

https://t.co/H7KQY7xyyK.
|timestamp=5:06 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|content=I understand many of you can’t handle the idea that we BOTH have to support our leadership in a crisis AND *simultaneously* pressure them to step aside as too old, out of touch and militarily / technically incapable of handling the Twin Nuclei Problem.

Maybe follow someone else.
|timestamp=5:06 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|content=COVID and Russia as the Twin Nuclei Problem: listen again with fresh ears and an open mind.

https://t.co/j4bCtAD6CS
|timestamp=5:06 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|content=@jbdaughtry Will not be the first time. But, as someone who has talked about civil disobedience and pressuring the octogenarians to resign, consider what I am saying.
|timestamp=6:04 PM · Feb 24, 2022
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|timestamp=4:26 AM · Feb 25, 2022
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|content=@AnnaGBusse The risk of blundering into nuclear war has skyrocketed now. It is still small. But no longer tiny. And it is likely to grow from here.
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|content=Teller’s “Nuclear Genie” will hang over any resumption of attempts to saber rattle between nuclear, and near nuclear nations: China, N Korea, Israel, Pakistan, India. Particularly with rhetoric about experiencing “consequences that you never have had before in your history”.
|timestamp=1:37 AM · Feb 25, 2022
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|content=My concern, to sum up, is that we blunder our way into open ended nuclear rhetoric that opens the door to new levels of the unthinkable. I don’t think this will get there. But I think it might and it may begin an erosion of the barriers to the unthinkable. As we saw in WWI &amp; II.
|timestamp=1:37 AM · Feb 25, 2022
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|content=And that’s a real threat as this “game” hasn’t been played like this for so long. We’re like a black belt from a strip mall Aikido dojo getting into our first street fight. How well we’re actually prepared is open to speculation. No one knows where we are with open ended threats.
|timestamp=1:37 AM · Feb 25, 2022
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|content=I don’t think this will be a nuclear war as I’ve said. But I think the current crop of leaders has lost track of where posturing becomes reality. Putin would be an exception. My concern is that unskilled peacetime leaders may blunder into nuclear brinksmanship they can’t manage.
|timestamp=1:37 AM · Feb 25, 2022
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|content=I’m also worried about China, N Korea, Iran, etc moving their pieces while we are focused on Russia/Ukraine. I don’t know how well our system really works anymore after the Afghanistan pull out. I’m not sure we really know how to play this role anymore. Hence the concern. 🙏
|timestamp=1:41 AM · Feb 25, 2022
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|timestamp=3:38 AM · Feb 25, 2022
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|content=@Jonny_monnaco Thank you.
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|content=Twitter forces us all to paint in primary colors. I was making a gentle point about not speaking w/ such certainty in the face of counter examples like the War of 1939. But Twitter wants everything frontal:

Norway also borders Russia.
Kim is Vietnamese.
This may not be winnable.
|timestamp=1:03 PM · Feb 26, 2022
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|content=None of that was relevant. And I was aware of it.

I am however incredibly inspired by people fighting for their homes. I am inspired by courage in leadership. I am inspired by people standing up to Putin. I am inspired by those who take on incredible odds to fight. So sue me. 🙏
|timestamp=1:03 PM · Feb 26, 2022
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|timestamp=1:17 PM · Feb 26, 2022
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|content=@TdotREguy That’s what I was thinking. But it’ll still probably not cause what we fear. 

The human mind has a problem considering catastrophic consequences of even mildly improbable events. Like any 1/60 chance of ruin is never gonna happen. Not worth worrying about for most people. Odd.
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|content=It’s a bit like border skirmishes or proxy wars. Mostly they stay confined. 

I am already seeing myself misthinking this. Drawn in to listening about this bridge or that river, near such and such airfield. Because that IS what matters right now. The generic porn of generic war.
|timestamp=1:04 PM · Feb 27, 2022
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|content=The more the visuals are of conventional warfare the more we will be lead to think about this as if this were a conventional adversary. Firefights, stranded tanks, downed aircraft, missiles hitting buildings…

Many are going to lose their fear of what is ultimately on the line.
|timestamp=1:04 PM · Feb 27, 2022
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|content=And, in all likelihood, it’ll probably stay that way for most such conflicts. 

Until, one random day, it doesn’t.

I also notice that the friends who assured me that Russia would NEVER invade Ukraine, are focused now on tactics, moving instantly to Russia would NEVER use nukes.
|timestamp=1:11 PM · Feb 27, 2022
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|timestamp=4:45 PM · Feb 27, 2022
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|content=@FernandezKHOTAN I would far prefer it your way. Obviously.
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|content=From November 4, 2019. 

I have been, so far as I know, the *only* loud voice calling for a return to rare above ground, atmospheric nuclear tests. So as to save us from the magical dream state thinking you see everywhere on Ukraine-Russia.

I’ve been totally isolated: Join me.
|timestamp=2:52 AM · Mar 02, 2022
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|timestamp=2:04 PM · Mar 03, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1499573804539940864
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=ericweinstein
|content=Between Putin, Biden, Xi, Kim Jong-un, Khameni, Trump, etc. do you really want to keep *all* our eggs in this ONE particular basket? It’s going to be like this over &amp; over. 

I haven’t changed my tune: stop waiting for the bread to rise. 

<nowiki>#</nowiki>TimeToGo

<nowiki>#</nowiki>TwinNucleiProblem #DoPhysics
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1499573802790899714
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|username=ericweinstein
|content=I don’t know what is really going on here. But I am going to reiterate that the level of discussion of the Russian Situation is only *slowly* coming towards the required level of seriousness in the outside world. We’ll need radioactive plumes, anthrax and ICBMs before we wake up.
|timestamp=2:33 AM · Mar 04, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1499573805651431428
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|content=Our home is in the stars, or not at all.
|timestamp=2:33 AM · Mar 04, 2022
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|timestamp=2:33 AM · Mar 04, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1501745578052448260
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=ericweinstein
|content=Many of you wouldn’t like what I think about where we are.

You would misinterpret it. Many of you deliberately.

I have called my Siberian friend Oleg perhaps our greatest living artist for years. Why? In anticipation of this shared moment.

Was I wrong?

https://t.co/WeYiBIKnRZ
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1501745579189170176
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|content=I see us trifling with Armageddon. Bored. Playing really. Not looking ahead.

So I don’t understand many of you anymore.

Oleg, however, is meticulous. That’s why he is alive. Because Oleg only plays at playing. He’s dead serious about the brink.

Russians. Ukrainians. Go figure.
|timestamp=2:23 AM · Mar 10, 2022
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|timestamp=2:23 AM · Mar 10, 2022
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|content=@PetraVinculado Oh stop. It's not just about the policy. What is pouring out russian vodka? What is all the stupid talk I just heard in a cafe? It's some giant media mediated mood swing thing.
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|content=I'm not pouring out my vodka. I'm not up for those fanning anti-Russian flames against ordinary Russians. No one sensible is. It's embarassing as hell.

Let's get back to human to human contact and arguing about Pickles and Kvass. This is so dumb.

Love you guys.
|timestamp=1:41 AM · Mar 11, 2022
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|content=Ethnic Russians: No fan of Putin. But this is getting ridiculous.

I have never laughed harder, sang louder, or drank, cried or danced harder than with you guys. I wish I could speak your language better, but it's a bit difficult. In any event, I'm not going along with this evil.
|timestamp=1:41 AM · Mar 11, 2022
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|content=P.S. And thank you all for being (mostly!) nice when I totally mangle your language trying to be playful. Kindness matters and I haven't forgotten.
Большое спасибо!

https://t.co/bsjSWVW0Ue
|timestamp=1:50 AM · Mar 11, 2022
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|timestamp=1:55 AM · Mar 11, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1507056137551564809
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|content=There was a reason I was calling for resuming *rare* above ground nuclear tests. This dream state around Russia that we're now living through *is* that reason. 

We are still sleepwalking though this. 

How? I don't know.

From Sydney Australia in 2018:
|timestamp=6:05 PM · Mar 24, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1511788246656684032
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|content=One example, offered freely and without my asking:
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1511781850628325377
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|username=ericweinstein
|content=I think this isn’t right.

We have a world where institutions BLATANTLY lie in the vague direction of the truth to make the truth…uh…punchier. More viral.

Some people, upon detecting the lies (e.g. “Climate modeling is settled science”), decide there’s no truth in it *at all*.
|timestamp=7:04 PM · Apr 06, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1511786331675848705
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=No one knows if Epstein killed himself. We just know our papers aren’t aggressively reporting that story. So many assume Epstein’s death is fake or an obvious hit. Because it could be either, but our lame institutions don’t dare ask even the easy questions. So we lurch to oppose.
|timestamp=7:22 PM · Apr 06, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1511786330438529024
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=Many believe there is no chance COVID was Zoonotic because we are lying about the lab by saying it has to be Zoonotic. But we don’t know.

Many people are convinced Ivermectin is a total COVID solution since we’re obviously lying about human medicine as Horse Dewormer. It isn’t.
|timestamp=7:22 PM · Apr 06, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1511786334985211905
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=But they will react to spin and hype as if there is ZERO substance behind it if that spin and hype are coordinated across multiple venues, institutions &amp; talking heads.

They aren’t principally embracing Trump or idiocy. They are rejecting obvious coordination of hype.

That.🙏
|timestamp=7:22 PM · Apr 06, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1511786334003728385
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|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=Moral: if you want a better model of Trump Supporters try this one: they prefer idiosyncratic lying/spin/distortion by a gadfly as an antidote to coordinated credentialed institutional polished lying with amazing production values. Further, they don’t think *anyone* offers truth.
|timestamp=7:22 PM · Apr 06, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1511786332770603011
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=Many people don’t believe that Russia/Ukraine is a threat or even real because they can see the obvious daily spin. But it is a huge threat and an atrocity. We’re just lying and spinning parts of it.

They don’t believe the Fed has ANY function because it does do some bad stuff.
|timestamp=7:22 PM · Apr 06, 2022
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|timestamp=7:29 PM · Apr 06, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1533688788194430977
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=It would be far better if those spurring others toward directly confronting Putin and Xi would cut it out. Nuclear humility needs to be a cultural mainstay. People dreaming that we would decisively win thermonuclear war with ultra high confidence are delusional. It’s nutty. 🙏
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1533685854102728707
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=Simple but disturbing question I never hear asked or discussed: 

Q: How many foreign nuclear weapons are currently inside US borders giving no time for defense?
|timestamp=5:42 AM · Jun 06, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1533687119306141696
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=I have asked this in private for years whenever someone confidently tells me about US military superiority capable of winning a nuclear confrontation with Russia or China. 

My short answer is that I don’t know where this confidence comes from. NO ONE knows what it would be like.
|timestamp=5:47 AM · Jun 06, 2022
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|timestamp=5:54 AM · Jun 06, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1539526669035184128
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|content=“Russia will never invade Ukraine.”

Look, I don’t know what is about to happen. But the difference is that I know that I don’t know. Many of you are absolutely sure of one thing or the the other about Russia and Putin.

And the truth is that if that’s you, you don’t know either.
|timestamp=8:32 AM · Jun 22, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1572705978218577921
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@Robbbie_Strange @Ako97041024 Sometimes he lies. Sometimes he frames. Sometimes he tells the truth. Sometimes he distorts. Sometimes he informs. 

You’re just being wrong here. Not sure why.
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1572694051421560833
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=ericweinstein
|content=The biggest disconnect is Russian speaking territory. My Russian is lousy, so I would appreciate some help.

In the speech he breaks apart:

Western Elites
Western People
Ukraine
Kiev
Neo-Nazis
Russia
Motherland
Donbas/Lugansk
Crimea

so he is disambiguating quite specifically.
|timestamp=9:07 PM · Sep 21, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1572694049454432256
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=I would stop what you are doing and watch Vladimir Putin address his citizens with subtitles in English but ZERO commentary. Sooner, rather than later.

I don’t think this man is bluffing. He is replaying a different version of WWII than we are replaying.

https://t.co/lSUSi5ardO
|timestamp=9:07 PM · Sep 21, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1572694053053136897
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=Q: Is he informing us that from this speech on, Russian speaking territories will be treated as Russian soil w/ all Western supplied weapons used against them as Washington/Brussels/London led attacks against RussianTerritory in support of (Neo)-Nazi occupation of Russian Soil?
|timestamp=9:07 PM · Sep 21, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1572695061716172801
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=I’m not looking to argue with Putin’s position. I just want to understand it exactly as he intends it. Doesn’t matter if he is wrong. I simply want to understand it exactly first before anything else, given what is on the line. 🙏
|timestamp=9:11 PM · Sep 21, 2022
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|timestamp=9:54 PM · Sep 21, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1579972438850703361
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse And some days I just say Poland.
|thread=
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1579968685112197121
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=When folks ask “Where is your family from originally Eric?”, I always wish we had a simpler answer. I just list the shtetls, towns &amp; cities. If pushed, I often say “Ukraine-Russia-Poland-Latvia-Belorussia-Azerbaijan-Moldova-Romania-Ish”

But the “ish” does a lot of heavy lifting.
|media=ERW-X-post-1579968685112197121-Fe0tJTbUUAAvj2k.jpg
|timestamp=10:54 PM · Oct 11, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1579970598230724609
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@deronijabroni I’ve been back.
|timestamp=11:01 PM · Oct 11, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1579971810351009792
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse And that merger with Lithuania ?
|timestamp=11:06 PM · Oct 11, 2022
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|timestamp=11:09 PM · Oct 11, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584684089025912833
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@SKEPTICLBELIEVR @delbel156 I’m open to it .
|thread=
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584512558262026240
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=I’m happy to answer a few.

It’ll be fewer than I’d like. I was invited to participate in the press conference about to start, but that project is totally separate, so I politely declined the gracious offer of my hosts, as I came here as *unaffiliated* observer.

How may I help?
|timestamp=11:50 AM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584513260493344769
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=If you’re not interested in my responses, or feel I owe you total personal disclosure, I politely decline in advance and suggest you unfollow. Any abuse of good will ends in a block. Those are my rules so that I can say all I might to those genuinely interested. Fair? Let’s go!
|timestamp=11:52 AM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584514293990506497
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@DasWoolf I was not expecting to speak. The guest of honor, Lue Elizondo, became unavailable at the last minute. I was asked to step in. As a courtesy I agreed, and shared some ideas that represent no one but myself as a private US citizen working with publicly available info. Specifics?
|timestamp=11:57 AM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584515630987763713
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@andyinberlin I am not as sure as you are that this what is going on. It’s a matryoshka problem. I’m convinced that many people you think of as insiders are not really inside enough. The UAP/UFO community leaps to MANY conclusions as if this is fun. This is not fun if you are serious about it.
|timestamp=12:02 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584516670512504832
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@ALean_Skye I don’t think people understand disclosure properly. Consider layers: 

A) The basic *claimed* phenomena.</br>
B) Associate phenomena.</br>
C) Cover up of the above.</br>
D) People in the know living a lie.</br>
E) Outsiders being destroyed to keep secrets.</br>
F) Outsiders being forced to live lies.
|timestamp=12:06 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584517440205033472
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@ALean_Skye Disclosure likely has to do with F) as much as anything. No matter what A) Turns out to be. Which I still don’t really know. If you are fighting for disclosure, don’t over focus on whether we are prepared for A).

I’m not inflating my level of knowledge here. I still don’t know.
|timestamp=12:09 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584517907836329984
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@andyinberlin I see a lot of people struggling under a heavy weight. People take their NDAs very seriously.
|timestamp=12:11 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584518630129078272
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@dkb003 Official panels tend to be tightly controlled in advance through use of insiders. Occasionally that screws up and you get a Jeff Sachs (Lancet) or a Richard Feynman/Gen Kutyna (Challenger). Galileo Project is an outsider project. Prefer the latter.
|timestamp=12:14 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584519621931331584
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@DasWoolf Technology is the entry point *if* recovered craft are real. I’ve seen no such proof. None.

But it is *psychotic* not to have Particle Theorists, General Relativists and Differential Geometers all over our US effort. I have yet to meet one in two years. Makes me very suspicious.
|timestamp=12:18 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584520802656870401
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@DasWoolf One thought is that it is very hard to make up ghost stories about how Alcubierre Drives, Wormholes, Time Dilation, etc REALISTICALLY account for this with actual specialists. 

I mean, I get it. But it’s nonsense. This is not about tech. It’s about post-GR/SM physics or a psyop.
|timestamp=12:22 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584521029879070721
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@DasWoolf It could sorta kinda maybe be a cover story for advanced tech. But I can’t get that to make sense yet. Maybe my failure of imagination.
|timestamp=12:23 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584522273477705728
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@delbel156 If others have gone beyond GR/SM to navigate/settle the cosmos, I don’t think they would let us leave this solar system with the BS we see in Russia/Ukraine, Wuhan etc. We look like a crazy species about to unlock the source code. It’s unbelievable. We look like savage fools.
|timestamp=12:28 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584522736096841728
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@delbel156 Just got warned. You want to know why I don’t tweet? Sorry all. Write to Twitter. I’m out.
|media=ERW-X-post-1584685455077179392-Ff3vBSbXEAEye24.jpg
|timestamp=12:30 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584523483811172353
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@delbel156 This account is throttled beyond belief. Check the graph over time. Check the level of reputational attack. Check the DOJ ready to block Elon. Go review portal Episode 21. The level of narrative control is through the roof. Wake up. Look at the patterns. All FUD. All suppression. https://t.co/949t7DAPsS
|media=ERW-X-post-1584523483811172353-Ff1btVrXwAAd4pI.jpg
|timestamp=12:33 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584525548507652096
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@delbel156 I’m trying to keep this channel open. 

The Portal is a communal resource. It reappears when you both need it and are prepared to fight for it. I cannot answer the interpersonal attacks myself as a public figure. Think about it a bit: It’s not haters.  It’s a bit more serious.🙏
|timestamp=12:41 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584683375670894593
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@SKEPTICLBELIEVR @delbel156 I would, respectfully, submit that there HAS to be a cost when Twitter keeps its algorithms hidden and Tech companies talk openly about cooperating with requests from government as well as playing games with TOS. I think it is fair to say that the benefit of the doubt is mine.
|timestamp=11:08 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1584683984578961409
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@SKEPTICLBELIEVR @delbel156 If they want to deny that the social blade graph has anything to do with Algos, let them. Then we can open the block box and I will apologize if wrong. 

I’m willing to bet they won’t do that. I’ve been on Twitter over a decade. The behavior isn’t even consistent. Ebbs and Flows.
|timestamp=11:11 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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|timestamp=11:11 PM · Oct 24, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1590026055964061697
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@RandySchoenberg What is my connection to this man?

This isn’t making a lot of sense Randy. And what is my “irrational fear of others”? You feeling okay?

I have a bunch of stuff to do now. But if you are having a hard time, I am available for a call later. Let me know. Be well.
|thread=
{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1589873075612717057
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=“We kinda sorta partially believe in not denying or subverting most elections within reason much of the time even given the circumstances of Russian control, because we believe deeply in fortified democracy through Prebunking malinformation.” Does not seem like a winning slogan.
|timestamp=6:50 AM · Nov 08, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1589874031666532352
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=And I think January 6th was a BIG deal. As was Roe. Etc. But at some point you gotta snap out of the idea that you can run on making good people live in fear that you’re going to ruin their ability to feed their families if they disagree with you. Maybe I’m wrong! We’ll see soon.
|timestamp=6:54 AM · Nov 08, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1590020933997432832
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@RandySchoenberg Which fascist?
|timestamp=4:38 PM · Nov 08, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1590021023495499777
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@RandySchoenberg Come again?
|timestamp=4:38 PM · Nov 08, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1590021403910471680
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@RandySchoenberg Too vague. Which fascist?
|timestamp=4:40 PM · Nov 08, 2022
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|timestamp=4:58 PM · Nov 08, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593816304921694209
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Agreed. I think I better understand your perspective and I don’t disagree with your claims much. I just don’t think there is a long term future if that is the reality we accept. Most of the time we WILL be fine. Mostly nothing will go wrong. We can at least agree on that. 🙏
|thread=
{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1592599100851367936
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=Oh no.
|timestamp=7:23 PM · Nov 15, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1592601664502263810
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=Hopefully this is wrong somehow. 

If it’s is not wrong, then it becomes very important to stop playing according to any old script. There’s no pretending it is still possible to play according to the script. This is not pre-1945 Europe.

I do not understand what we’re all doing.
|timestamp=7:33 PM · Nov 15, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593094252996665345
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse May you continue to be right about this Anna. I’m speaking somewhat obliquely, but I do not like that any bold field commander this close to Poland could choose to upset this delicate equation with a mere targeting error. This is way too close to Polish land. As you know…
|timestamp=4:10 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593098086695735296
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Nor do I discount the need not to roll over in the face of Putin and his army.

I just don’t sense from anyone’s rhetoric that we realize where we are. We are all engaged in magical thinking about why things are some distance away from the unthinkable.

Both you and me included…
|timestamp=4:25 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593098994913202176
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Anyway, I’d rather hear your thoughts on how to stay away from the abyss. If you think I’m wrong about how close we have been to the brink, I’d love you to change my mind. Thx.
|timestamp=4:29 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593154876825272321
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Okay. Assuming that I understand (which I may not), here is why I’m baffled. You have described a game with two players: NATO (N) and Putin (P). Both players may potentially be ‘atrocious’, but they are logical &amp; self-interested: both N&amp;P see annihilation in direct confrontation.
|timestamp=8:11 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593155848674902017
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse One can, in this description, work backwards. To avoid losing, both sides agree that they will exhaust all moves before triggering any obligate escalation to invocation of Article 5. Ergo, they both agree that they must always leave the other a way out despite their antagonism.
|timestamp=8:15 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593157711360798721
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Okay. Here goes: I don’t see this world. 

I think it is a first order description at best. When you are this close to NATO territory, every field commander becomes a relevant decision maker. I think I calculated there was fighting 8 hypersonic seconds away from Poland. Wrong?
|timestamp=8:22 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593158809421172736
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Then you have the skill level of the players. Biden is 79 with a 1/20 chance of dying in any year with Kamala Harris on deck. He has said that P cannot remain in power and described that N has a “sacred obligation” to protect N (which now includes Poland since 1999).
|timestamp=8:27 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593160519435059200
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Then, as if that wasn’t explicit enough, he took away more discretion by clarifying this meant WWIIi. Literally. Which Zelensky (Z) followed with requests for a no-fly zone at one point and “превентивные удары” (preventative strikes) at another.

Something like that? Ballpark?
|timestamp=8:34 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593161917354635264
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse To which I cry: Bullshit. I’m not supposed to say Z has been a loose cannon because he has been wronged by P. But Z IS a loose cannon. It’s part of what has made him charismatic &amp; effective.

Even if I grant you a 3-4 player game with N,P and Z, there isn’t enough skill to play.
|timestamp=8:39 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593162954517934081
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse This isn’t chess. These are battlefields with weather &amp; alcohol &amp; fatigue etc.. There are many players running around miscalculating. The 1st order description is just not good enough to be this close to the rubicon. That map of the conflict is NOT the territory of an actual war.
|timestamp=8:43 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593165212869619712
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse I even think we agree. Your language is careful: 

“to me”
“most likely”
“P would/might do”

Take them out? It reads: “The most Russians will do is use a dirty bomb in a city” and I know you would never say that. I think we agree to your 1st order description AND its inadequacy https://t.co/0kJrBFyO1O
|media=ERW-X-post-1593165212869619712-FhwPT3WWAAApf61.jpg
|timestamp=8:52 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593167073588678662
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse My argument is this: the players aren’t skilled enough to be talking through battle. There are too many actual decision makers, way too close to Poland. Z has been a very effective loose cannon. P has endgame issues from a conventional loss &amp; has non conventional options. Etc.
|timestamp=9:00 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593167793855557635
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse I think this has been a lot more dangerous than anyone is reflecting. And the entire world is in denial about this. We have given up on being rational. We just kind of hope things will work out as if all that can happen is 20th Cent conventional war w a few 21st century upgrades.
|timestamp=9:02 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593170525471539201
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@Not_Gladwin @AnnaGBusse I dunno. There is also the matter of the  suspicious coordinates of the impact. 

I’m not a battlefield expert. I never served either. Etc.

I know military geeks but am not competent to say what the hell happened or who is lying. Just being honest. Sorry.
|timestamp=9:13 AM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593266541449154564
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse And with that “Like any war.” we see our divide starkly.

To me it is clear that every conventional war involving the thermonuclear powers, US and/or PRC and/or Russia etc, is like no war ever fought before 1952. Even if we fight 100 which do not move into new territory.
|timestamp=3:35 PM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593267577085730820
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Let me end with the words of Edward Treller reflecting on his child with Stan Ulam of Luvov:

“If we have a slim chance of survival [now], it lies in the possibility to get rid of wars.”

I think you believe it is business as usual which carries risk. I believe that time is past.
|timestamp=3:39 PM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593267911107420162
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Nice chatting with you Anna. As always. Hope your point continues to hold.
|timestamp=3:40 PM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593268754972131328
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse This is Europe. In Vietnam I was under 10. This is quite different. And yes I worry. As you know, I consider Europe to be historically the most dangerous place in the world. The Disneyland of the post 1945 era doesn’t change that. Particularly in central and Eastern Europe.
|timestamp=3:44 PM · Nov 17, 2022
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{{Tweet
|image=Eric profile picture.jpg
|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593269161505050624
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@sjcorley @AnnaGBusse I have the same sense
|timestamp=3:45 PM · Nov 17, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593513311789801473
|name=Eric Weinstein
|usernameurl=https://x.com/ericweinstein
|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Uh. History? High density of reasonably wealthy uncomfortably similar rivalrous advanced societies? Cultural/Ethnic Connections to both US and Russia? Rapid NATO expansion? 

Not sure what we are discussing here.
Just take Belgrade alone:

https://t.co/qgdaaisPR3
|timestamp=7:55 AM · Nov 18, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593514493811642370
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse I find the Berlin Holocaust memorial to be an extraordinarily visceral physical exploration by way of metaphor that you can wander into madness barely noticing what is happening. Europe excels at this. And Western Europe  has seemed very safe for many years.
|timestamp=8:00 AM · Nov 18, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593638086311038976
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse We’re talking on different planes Anna. You’re talking about rational incentives, individual conflicts &amp; maximum likelihood. I am talking about expected value. My point about Belgrade:

“[T]he city was battled over in 115 wars and razed to the ground 44 times.”

#RussianRoulette
|timestamp=4:11 PM · Nov 18, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593639795850326016
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=@AnnaGBusse This strategy of rational incentives among skilled players with non-conventional weapons, well aware of game theoretic traps is coming to an end. Proliferation alone will extend catastrophic weaponry to players all up and down the skill spectrum. We can’t keep playing like this.
|timestamp=4:18 PM · Nov 18, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593650122776522753
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Again, we superficially agree. I don’t think we’d have had 75+ years of this kind of peace under the old pre-nuclear rules. The expected value of conflict is unbelievably WORSE not better. Same point: you appear to be focused  on maximally likely outcomes vs my expected value.
|timestamp=4:59 PM · Nov 18, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593651315464318976
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse The period of 1945-today has been fairly quiet, free and prosperous in (western) Europe. And nuclear weapons have been responsible for some measure of that. Which is disguising what has happened. The confusion of S Pinker “Everything is Better.”
|timestamp=5:04 PM · Nov 18, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593652602373574657
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|content=@AnnaGBusse Sorry. Do you not see a difference? Honest question.
|timestamp=5:09 PM · Nov 18, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593717349630496768
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|content=@AnnaGBusse Didn’t see a response. So I’ll start filling in. The has been post Poland (1999?), Latvia (2004?) etc. coming into NATO. It’s extraordinarily close to the Border, particularly around Lviv. Russia isn’t using a proxy army. The level of weaponry used. Etc
This is a higher madness.
|timestamp=9:26 PM · Nov 18, 2022
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|nameurl=https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1593719287377670146
|name=Eric Weinstein
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|username=ericweinstein
|content=@AnnaGBusse Anna, I don’t get the conversation. Maybe the idea is that you’re a political scientist &amp; I’m focused on physics.

Our non conventional weaponry is post business as usual IR and PolySci. We are supposed to sense that everything is different post 1952-3. This won’t work for long.
|timestamp=9:34 PM · Nov 18, 2022
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|timestamp=3:59 AM · Nov 19, 2022
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